Saturday Forecast

170 Comments

9:17AM

COMMENTARY…
I know it’s exciting (or terrifying depending on your point of view) to see that there is a Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the Caribbean and forecast to head eventually into a position in which many storms have been before coming up. This in itself is NOT a guarantee of a New England landfall. Although this can’t be ruled out, just because a few runs of one model have brought the center of Matthew to New England does not make this highly likely, and it is not the “forecast”, beyond a model simulation. You’ll see social media posts, regular media segments, etc., advertising it as a potential “end of the world” style scenario. This should not be touted as such or looked at as such with a solid week to go. In the meteorological world, it will be something we’re focusing on hard-core over the next few days, since it cannot be written off for this area yet, because you’d want to give your audience as much time as possible to prepare for any impacts that would occur with anything ranging from a close pass to a direct hit, as well as any travel plans to areas that would be impacted even if this area was not. Be cautious when comparing it to past storms. Similarities between storms and events can always be found, but this does not necessarily mean that going forward one storm or event will mirror another. Too many variable exist in our atmosphere for this to be such an easy call. I also realize it’s easy to get caught up in one computer model’s scenario, but unless you’re within a couple days of an event, and you have amazing model agreement, taking a model’s forecast and running with it is a very dangerous thing to do, especially if you are responsible for informing the public. This is something I”m always aware of and have been through my forecasting career. I’ll continue to take the same approach I always have and let people know what I know, and what I don’t. There is no need to cause panic, which does not generally allow one to prepare for anything very well.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
Upper level low pressure lifts through the region from the southwest while weakening and dissipating through Monday. The wettest of the 3 days will be today, with some beneficial rain especially for RI, central and eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Sunday will less much less rain around, but will still be a mainly overcast day with spotty drizzle and light rain. One more disturbance may enhance the shower risk for a portion of Monday. Improving weather is expected by Tuesday-Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Overcast. Frequent periods of rain with embedded downpours possible. Highs 55-62. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle. Lows 50-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and light rain but precipitation-free many areas much of day. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 50-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-56. Highs 58-65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 52-58. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
We’ll be watching Matthew during this time, obviously coming northward “somewhere” offshore as a hurricane. But not to repeat the commentary above it will just be something we’ll watch for in the days ahead. After most likely fair and pleasant weather here October 6-7, the potential impact period for the storm would be October 8-9, again based on current trends and still subject to change, with improvement for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Tranquil, mild pattern expected toward mid month.

170 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks, as always, TK! Excellent, excellent analysis of the situation!

    You should break down the Pats-Bills game for us in the same way. I have to make my picks shortly!!!

    Big Papi ~ a legend!

    Grass, flowers and trees singing here in Taunton. Lots of luscious rain!

    Go Pats! Go Papi!

    1. I sure hope I’m more accurate about the weather than I am about this game, but I have a feeling this game is going to give the Pats a lot of trouble and I’m not sure they pull it off. But…that’s just a feeling and that’s why they PLAY. Anything can happen. 😀

      1. Debbie Downer.

        The Pat’s WIN this game hands down and I am not generally
        an optimist. I ALWAYS see the glass, not as 1/2 empty, but completely empty.

        Not this time.

        1. I hope you’re right. Maybe I’ll wake up feeling more confident tomorrow and ask myself why I was so foolish to let any doubt creep in. 😉

          1. I think you’re letting the gloomy weather get
            you down. 😀

            I’d wager you’re spot on with the weather though.

      2. I agree re Pats Bills. Too many saying it is a given. We have a history of letting out guards down with “givens.” But a new QB which may…..just may….make the difference. As usual, TK, our thoughts agree. The more I heard it was a given, the more uneasy I became

        1. Generally I would I agree with that, however, this time around, I just don’t feel that way. Perhaps I am way off base. Hope not.

          We shall see. 😀

    1. How’s school going, Tom?

      Progress reports and parent-teacher conferences this week, already!

      1. Great, thanks ! Thus far it’s been a hard working, respectful bunch.

        Our progress reports are due in a week or 2 and conferences are in mid to late October.

        Hope your school year is off to a good start !

        1. In one respect, I can’t believe it’s already October 1. In another, I can’t believe it’s ONLY October 1.

          Finally feel like I am in a routine. It seems it took longer this year.

  3. Thank you TK. Excellent discussion.

    One comment from previous blog.

    You said that the GFS was an outlier.

    The UKMET just doesn’t go out far enough yet, so we only
    have 4 “major” models to compare.

    GFS – hit
    FIM – hit
    CMC – Nearby with solid effects
    EURO – total and complete miss

    Doesn’t look like an outlier to me. 😀

    You even said that the Euro has not been performing well.
    And the GFS has.

    Given all of that, it certainly does NOT mean the GFS is the SOLUTION.

    But right now, I’d give it more weight than the Euro.

    Now of course, the Euro could still end up being correct.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. We know the CMC tends to vastly overdo rainfall, so I take that into account as well.

      The GFS for a few runs looks like someone used the center of the hurricane to map out what the coast would look like if it were a couple hundred miles further east. Something odd there. I also notice that NHC’s official track is about 200 miles further east than the GFS forecast. This would show influence by other guidance. Nobody should be blindly following the GFS despite its recent OK performance and the Euro’s less than desirable performance.

      Show me this GFS solution in 2 days, and I’ll be very interested. Show me it in 4 days, and I’ll be very concerned. Show me it in 5 days, and I’ll sound the alarms.

  4. Ryder Cup leaderboard after day one:

    GFS 5, ECMWF 3

    GFS sweeps all four morning matches. ECMWF rallies in the afternoon.

    Round two underway in Minnesota.

      1. Foursomes results (United States 4-0):
        Patrick Reed/Jordan Spieth (USA) win 3&2 over Justin Rose/Henrik Stenson
        Dustin Johnson/Matt Kuchar (USA) win 5&4 over Thomas Pieters/Lee Westwood
        Zach Johnson/Jimmy Walker (USA) win 4&2 over Sergio Garcia/Martin Kaymer
        Rickie Fowler/Phil Mickelson (USA) win 1 Up over Rory McIlroy/Andy Sullivan
        Four-ball results (Europe 3-1):
        Justin Rose/Henrik Stenson (Europe) win 5&4 over Patrick Reed/Jordan Spieth
        Sergio Garcia/Rafa Cabrera Bello (Europe) win 3&2 over J.B. Holmes/Ryan Moore
        Brandt Snedeker/Brooks Koepka (USA) win 5&4 over Martin Kaymer/Danny Willett
        Rory McIlroy/Thomas Pieters (Europe) win 3&2 over Dustin Johnson/Matt Kuchar

  5. I bet the GFS shifts big at 12z. Or in the next couple runs at least. Reason being, the 6z ensembles shifted significantly east. That doesn’t mean it’s the final answer- we’re still a solid week out, as TK said. Things could change yet again. However, I stand by my thoughts from a couple days ago that a miss is more likely for us.

    1. That would be our luck. Not that I want a damaging hurricane, but I would
      have liked the beneficial rains that would come with it.

      Time will tell.

      1. The “best case” weather-wise would be a pass of a nearly post-tropical system in the vicinity of 40/70, which would bring wind, but nothing worse than we see in a solid winter storm, and beneficial rain.

        The “best case” economy-wise would be a miss, and dry weather, as it is a holiday weekend. 😉

        1. WXwatcher I agree I still think this is mostly OTS. But if I’m reading the GFS ensembles correct that’s a pretty big shift east. Should we be wary of a jump like that? Shouldn’t it be more gradual shift east? could this just be a bad run of the model?

          1. I’m always wary of big shifts… And always wary anytime models are trying to forecast an Atlantic hurricane. I think they’re getting on the right track this time. Not that it will mean too much, but we’ll see what the operational does in less than two hours 🙂

  6. My good friend is the CEO of a non-profit hospital on the Southern Peninsula of Haiti in Fond Des Blancs – he is on a call with his team now — do the latest model runs still show a westward trend towards Jamaica and/or is the southern peninsula of Haiti still in the potential cone for more than a tropical storm? I couldn’t tell from our discussion as of course we are focused on SE NE — thanks!!!

    1. No major shifts one way or another, but I lean toward the NHC track of taking the center JUST east of the island, giving them big wind, big rain, but NOT as devastating as a direct hit (eye over island) or a track just to the west. They should still be prepared for the worst, though they may be spared it.

      1. Thanks so much TK – I passed along your update and analysis verbatim to the team at St. Boniface Haiti Foundation. Such a difficult situation as of course I hope they are spared a hit but either way somebody gets it – Jamaica in this case – just terrible all around.

        1. It is terrible. The most difficult part of loving weather is somehow balancing fascination with what you absolutely know are her destructive forces. I struggle with that often. When I read accounts of a storms aftermath….and when I read comments such as yours and Sue’s. Not that I don’t fully understand, but somehow they make it so real and my heart just sinks.

          1. Well said and even given that, I sometimes secretly route for the worse case scenario.

            Pretty sick I know, but I can’t help it.

            1. Thank you, Dave. It is something in our blood I think. Don’t know how it got there but the passion is real. It seems we have all had it since we were quite young. You cannot ignore somethjng that is a part of you nor can you beat yourself up about it. It just is.

              1. You shouldn’t feel anything but happy and proud about your passion I think. I find it just exhilarating by proxy to be a witness to this group – the enthusiasm is really incredible. Not the greatest example but I am a huge Pats fan – have been for 30 years. Almost every game someone goes down but I still yell “attack attack!!!” At almost every play – even though my heart sinks when a player gets carted off the field. Two totally separate things… please be proud of your talents and passion for weather – I think it’s amazing!

                1. :). Thank you!!

                  I am also a ots fan. Lots of us here. Ans I yell at the tv but nothing like mac did. And in over four decades of knowing him, it was the only time I ever heard him yell. I have this feeling he can be found riding on their shoulders during games !

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I’ve always wondered why they give tropical storms and hurricanes such tame-sounding names. I like the name Matthew. But it doesn’t sound like a hurricane. Similarly, Katrina and Sandy don’t conjure up images of mayhem and destruction. I’d prefer names that really evoke the character of a frightening storm: Machiavelli, Jesse James, Joan of Arc, The Joker, Napoleon, Darth Vader, etc …

    1. Fun fact: Matthew is the replacement name for another very famous Caribbean hurricane. We can only hope it doesn’t live up to its predecessor. I’ll leave it open to guesses as to which storm I’m talking about…

    2. We could petition to change the names…
      How does “Hurricane Mean Dog” sound? Or perhaps “Hurricane Vicious Vic”. Fox network would love this. TWC is too preoccupied making up names for warm fronts that bring freezing drizzle in the winter.

  8. TK I’ve been chatting and neglected to thank you for the great update.

    Thank you.

    That said, I am feeling quite sad about the vicious thing 😉

  10. NHC’s track is pretty much identical to the previous update, if not a “few miles” further east.

  11. Repost from my response to Vicki and JpDave from above:

    I think you shouldn’t ever feel anything but happy and proud about your passion for meteorology, weather and storms. I find it just exhilarating by proxy to be a witness to this group – the enthusiasm is really incredible. Not the greatest example but I am a huge Pats fan – have been for 30 years. Almost every game someone goes down but I still yell “attack attack!!!” At almost every play – even though my heart sinks when a player gets carted off the field. Two totally separate things… please be proud of your talents and passion for weather – I think it’s amazing!

  12. Regarding the destruction obsession alluded to above…

    I always say this, especially after seeing the inevitable “how can you root for bad weather?!” posts that are always part of weather sites. Listen..nobody roots for death and destruction, unless you are made of pure evil. The truth is, nature is going to cause destruction, and sometimes death, mainly because it is part of what happens. We have to survive the best we can, and part of that is making the decision to place our property and ourselves in harm’s way. There is no such thing as out-of-harm’s way. Every place on this planet is vulnerable, one way or another. So, it’s going to happen. If you happen to be fascinated by the natural process of it, there should be no guilt attached to it. I’m amazed at the power of a destructive tornado, a hurricane, a big winter storm, a severe thunderstorm, the list goes on… It has nothing to do with rooting for bad things to happen to people and property. End of story.

    2. Absolutely agree. It is pure and simple awe of natures wonder and beauty and power. Nicely said, sir…..even if you think I’m vicious. Although, cross a friend or family and I suppose that would be accurate.

    3. can not tell you how many people have said why are you excited for these storms, I say because of science

  13. 12Z GFS is coming out. Looks like it will pass “just” East of Jamaica, sparing it the absolute worst but still causing major problems. It also “looks” as though it may split
    the gap between Hispanola and Cuba, but perhaps clip or pass over extreme
    Eastern Cuba.

    Then what? Ah, that’s the Million Dollar question.

  14. Thanks for the great posts, TK. And all so true. I always tend to say something like”looking forward to the storm but as long as no one gets hurt or that there is no damage.” I guess I shouldn’t have to apologize; of course I don’t want anything bad to happen – I just love the excitement of the storm and the weather – whether it be fair or stormy. I am enjoying the much needed rain today. And I can guess in the next several days how much hype there will be about Matthew regardless what happens. I don’t like getting involved in politics but maybe the weather talk will cut down some of the political talk re: the election. Or maybe even Matthew won’t be able to stop the political talk! 🙂

    1. It looks like it should. It’s been intermittently blowing up big convection to the east of the center. This is where the feeder bands are being born.

      The slight weakening is very possibly due to the slow movement of the center, “blowing away” the warm water supply which is then being replaced by cooler water due to the process of upwelling.

  17. Major hurricane in Bahammas with latest forecast from NHC
    12z GFS has Matthew little further east than previous run in Bahammas.

    1. For the moment, the GFS is pretty far out there in terms of being an outlier among the major models.

  20. If the GFS stayed as is for the next 168-170 hours, some areas up here would be wiped. Im guessing it ends up further east than currently modeled by the GFS.
    If it still looks like that Thursday with model agreement, I go get 20 gallons of gas for the genny.

    2. The Euro will come west to some degree, but not drastically. That will continue to adjust westward as the GFS adjusts eastward with time, in my humble meteorological opinion.

  22. Interesting that the euro and cmc are sooo different than the GFS op. Even the GFS ensemble mean looks well offshore. Be interesting to see if and when the GFS op starts to come in line with the ensemble mean and euro. If the GFS op nails this, then chock one up for the American. Something tells me there’s something waaay off somewhere.

  24. 12z UKMET run was interesting. It really likes that northwest bend. The 12z GFS ensembles are pretty much all over the map. The 12z Euro run will be the most important run of the day, as usual…

  25. WXwatcher why do you think euro is the most important run? Hasn’t it been performing poorly lately? Just thinking all models are all over the place.

    1. Historically, the Euro is the superior model. I agree with what TK and others have said that it really hasn’t impressed of late, at least for our region. You can’t ignore its track record though. When the water is this muddy, many will look to the Euro for clarity. And historically, these are the situations where the Euro has made its name. It’s gotten a reputation as being “clutch.” This is starting to feel like Joaquin from last October. GFS a hit, Euro out to sea. A lot of meteorologists are going to be looking very intently at the new run, starting in about 15 minutes.

      1. Well said. IT will be interesting.

        My guess is that it remains well ots. Does it move back to the West? Given that the CMS is well East, my guess is not.

        We shall see soon enough. 😀

  27. GFS has not been initializing well either with the pressure much lower than when the run started.

  29. Hmmm, while Matthew is a powerful hurricane, it is not that large in area.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
    miles (335 km).

      1. Could be headed WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY

        Out to sea. 😀 😀 😀

        It also could have initialized Matthew to the correct or nearly
        correct pressure also.

  31. As the EURO run continues, I’m watching it on Instant Weather Maps.

    I’m primarily running the 500 mb flow with North Atlantic for the region.

    As of hr 96, I believe it’s projecting a 500 mb ridge ever so slightly further west in the central Atlantic and a pretty sharp central us trof.

    100 % guess, the next several panels will show a western adjustment to previous EURO tracks.

    1. I agree with you. All in through day 5 it looks more like the GFS. I’m not sure if Matthew will escape this run.

        1. There was some talk I saw on Twitter about it. It’s definitely weird, because the Euro has a different method for initializing tropical cyclones than other models. The general consensus seems to be that it isn’t a big deal, because it smooths itself out very quickly. So long story short, I wouldn’t worry about it. And regardless, the changes in the CONUS pattern on this run are independent of that.

  32. Subtle but important 500 mb changes continue on this particular EURO run.

    May be setting up for one interesting conversation about what all the current guidance projects for Matthew in about 15 minutes.

    1. I wonder if it’s the area that the NHC has given a 20% chance of development on its 5 day outlook ???????????

    1. But …. It is quicker to eject Matthew than it has been. I think yesterday’s 12z at the same comparable time has Matthew east of Florida.

      Have to get resolutions on the placement and amplitude of the North Atlantic ridge and the placement, depth and orientation of the central us trof.

  38. Euro closer, but manages to sneak it out to sea. Actually serves as a decent compromise of guidance right now.

  40. 12Z 60 KM Fim is in.
    Also basically it’s while
    Throwing a bit of rain to far eastern sne. Mobile so not postin link.

    2. Just bought a bag of grass seed. I think this is going to be a great week for getting it started. Are we possibly done with the heavy rain today? I’ tinking maybe I should wait until tomorrow to plant it in case heavier rain washes it away.

        1. Yes, get it down now. It’s even a little late. Seeding should have begun a month ago if you’re doing blue grass. Fescue needed to go down a couple weeks ago. If it’s rye, it will be ok going down now.
          You basically want the grass germinated, up, and a decent stand before it freezes. KBG takes 3 weeks to germinate. Fescue goes in about 10-14 days. Rye takes a week. I put down a mix of all 3 on September 7. The guy cored the whole thing, then slice seeded it with a machine. I watered it 2 times a day. It’s all up, decent stand, and will be mowed at least 3 times before it freeezes. That’s optimal. But like I said, if it’s rye grass, puttting it down now, it should be ok. Fescue will maybe be ok. If it’s KBG, it’s too late.

    1. I am very surprised its maintained this ferocity today given the shear on its west and northwest side.

  46. 18z GFS : moves storm through our latitude so slowly ……..

    Somewhat of a red flag for that particular projection.

  47. That run really slowed it down; by 12-24 hours. Seems the theme of that model over the last day or so has been to slow it down.
    If it keeps slowing it up, we could still be watching this thing on Halloween. 🙂

  48. I really need to be on the west coast Tuesday morning. If it still shows impact on Monday, I’ll need to get out of here Sunday morning. Hopefully by wed-Thursday I can figure out if I need to change my ticket. I hate it they charge you $200 change fee plus any fare difference.

    2. Daughter has cancellation insurance. But they leave 9th. I thought that was the date it is due….later now?

      1. This is for a conference. Company is paying, but still. It only a 2 day conference, 11-12th. So if I don’t get out Monday, there’s really no need to go since I’d miss all day Tuesday basically.
        Storm was supposed to be through and out by Sunday night. Now it’s in here Monday morning. If it follows the euro solution, then no worries.
        But I’m sure it’ll change 20 times over the next few days. If it looks like Monday is no go, I’ll try and get out Sunday.

        1. I understand and do know businesses rarely take Insirance precautions. Is there an option to attend remotely?

          1. No, not that kind of a conference. Science meetings don’t lend themselves to remote type stuff.

  50. Looking again at the 12z euro, it’s even a touch slower than the 18z GFS. Looking at how things are modeled over the CONUS, it seems to me that the slower solution would favor an eastward movement. The longer the move up the coast is delayed, the less impact to NE. Maybe the GFS is catching on to the slower move north and will adjust the longitude down the road. Of course it’s just Saturday night, 8 days before the event so there’s that 🙂

    1. How the hell can the operational look that much different? That mean puts it well out to sea.

      1. I don’t know and sure does. I got caught up in the last few GFS op runs, but with this and the consistent euro and the tropical models, I’m ignoring the GFS op run as long as it is such an outlier.

        2. Yea. At this point I’ll just look st the operational and see how long it takes it to correct.
          Looks like it’s stationary at this point. Maybe it’s going to start it’s turn. If it turns earlier, that should push it further east.

  53. If I’m reading the ooz GFS correct seems to have joined the Euro bandwagon and headed OTS although throwing a decent amount of precip our way.

  55. Ok, we saw the expected northwest shift on the Euro, not drastic and was not expecting that.

    Now we have seen the eastward shift we spoke of on the GFS.

    It’s still obviously way out there but we’re getting a little more agreement in the major models. Confidence up slightly of a graze/miss scenario versus a hit.

    Will revisit this again as the runs update during Sunday.

  56. The other thing I was wondering may happen is indeed happening, and that is the core of the hurricane staying east of Jamaica, sparing them the worst. Still nasty, but not as bad as what could have been. Yesterday my concern for western Haiti and the southeastern tip of Cuba was increasing, and it looks like they may be hit hardest.

  58. That’s a fabulous question…
    I’m going to be out with mom for a couple hours, then will re-assess everything and update then!

  59. 06z GFS nails us again. But now speeds things up to Saturday. 06z GEFS move the mean west too. Something’s up with that run.

    1. Something’s not right with any of it. The euro doesn’t put that up at our lattitude until a week from this coming Wednesday, October 12. The 0z GFS puts a direct hit on Saturday October 8th. That’s a 96 hour difference.

      1. Correction, it’s only off the coast of Virginia at 240 hours. Like I said last night, we’ll still be dealing with this on Halloween.

  62. The big time difference between the GFS and EURO continues. The 12z EURO run Friday had Matthew once it got to the Bahammas just sit there.

  63. The 0z/6z model runs are somewhat concerning for the East Coast, the Carolinas in particular given the 0z ECMWF. The GFS/GEFS has been probably the most consistent but also a little unpredictable in how it has shifted; last night’s 18z ensembles shifted east, as did the 0z operational, but then the 0z ensembles shifted west, as did the 6z op/ens. Multi-cycle trends have been tough to come by on all the models. Needless to say the situation continues to require our attention.

  65. In my opinion the keys to the track of Michael are A) west coast trough, as a series of disturbances approach the pacific northwest and how that energy integrates with the cold front that will be approaching the eastern US from the west, B) Canadian high pressure to our north C) the offshore east coast trough D) the ridge of Atlantic high pressure to the east of Michael

    If this were a winter storm the above factors would lead me to lean with average confidence to an more easterly / offshore impact for SNE.

  66. Notice my above comment mentions nothing about models and is about observing synoptic and atmospheric conditions.

    6z and 18z runs are garbage in garbage out.

    Also nothing makes me laugh harder than the forecaster default line of “the consistent ECMWF,” Saw SAK’s mention above with that and my wry smile grew wide.

    Too much information serves to only delude forecaster confidence. I tend to keep myself to the 00/12 GFS/GEFS, ECMWF/ECENS, NAM. Each winter I tend to add in another model that seems to have a better handle on a pattern. Last year it was the UKMET, (maybe because I was in the UK). About 5 years ago the GGEM had it nailed, the SREF had good run one winter before all the upgradges to the GFS and the NAM sent it into lala land. Beyond that the HI-RES short range guidance is hit and miss (more miss). I can’t tell you the last time I looked at the JMA, NAVGEM, FIM, even the tropical models for the most part are solid bets in the ignore column.

    Ok model rant / forecaster over reliance on them without understanding their strengths and weaknesses is over…

  68. Good morning.

    Another 0.07 overnight since midnight
    0.67 yesterday and 0.16 Friday evening
    for a grand total of 0.90 inch.

    I checked the 0Z Gfs last night and say ok, there it goes, and then
    I wake up this morning to WTF, even though the Ensemble mean is off
    shore.

    The Euro looked ominous until it hit a wall and took a right hook.

  69. Thanks JMA as always. Agree with pretty much the whole of what you wrote.

    I have updated the blog with a new post, but don’t expect to see any great insight there. My thoughts pretty much sit now where they did yesterday at this time. I’ll be “updating” those in the comments section as we go through the day, and my plan is to have the next update published in the early hours of Monday.

    See you on the new post!

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