Friday Forecast

200 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
High pressure to north / low pressure to south, and the east and northeast flow goes on for the next several days. The best rain chance is tonight and Saturday as the upper low makes its closest pass while weakening. The sky condition forecast may be a bit optimistic for Monday and Tuesday as it may end up staying fairly cloudy throughout the period – but I’m unsure of that at this point.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty mist/sprinkles especially coastal areas. Periods of rain in the afternoon mainly South Coast region. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 52-58. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers/drizzle. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 50-58. Highs 64-72.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Fair, milder October 5. Still watching for what Matthew does during the October 6-7 period but early leaning is a system that remains offshore of New England. There is even some risk that Matthew does not move north as fast and that the time frame for hit/graze/miss could be over the October 8-9 weekend. For the thoughts of my fellow meteorologist and friend on this, go to the link posted in the comments below at 2:54PM.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
Drier regime becomes re-established with fair and milder weather expected early through mid period then a few rain showers possible later in the period.

200 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. I think we have seen this scenario a number of times. I’m guessing Matthew will be OTS with very little precip here.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK. Anxious to see the 12Z runs re: Matthew
    Guessing they stay with the OTS scenario. We shall see.

  4. Matthew is now forecast to become a Cat3 hurricane.

    From NHC

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 69.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
    12H 30/1800Z 13.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
    24H 01/0600Z 13.7N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    36H 01/1800Z 13.9N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
    48H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
    72H 03/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
    96H 04/0600Z 20.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
    120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH…OVER WATER

    Note: 120 mph before moving over Cuba, then it drops to 100 mph.
    How much intensity does it pick up after that.

    Even though it looks like an OTS scenario for us, it is still “possible” that the outer
    banks of NC could get clobbered by Matthew. We’ll have to see.

    2. The elements are conspiring against us. It sure looked like we were going to receive some beneficial rain. Yeah Sure! That will be the say.

      Stranger things have happened, so we’ll continue to watch, but it appears
      that Matthew will shun us here in SNE. 😀

      1. Well it never really looked that way as all solutions were on the table. Now we can start narrowing. OTS is far from locked in.

  8. 969 mb.

    Eastern part of Jamaica, parts of Dominican Republic and Bahamas in for a real hit.

    Looking at cirrus outflow, looks like upper level high is centering itself nicely over Matthew really allowing for significant ventilation. I hope this doesn’t intensify to a cat 4 or 5 during its lifetime.

    2. I have reached out to my sister in law in Jamaica and asked her to keep in touch. They are in the south eastern part of the island, not far from Kingston.

      1. Sue,

        6Z HWRF for Jamaica

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2016093006/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_25.png

        6Z GFDL for Jamaica

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2016093006/gfdl_mslp_wind_14L_14.png

        6Z GFS for Jamaica

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093006/gfs_mslp_wind_14L_15.png

        0Z CMC for jamaica

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093006/gfs_mslp_wind_14L_15.png

        Euro passes East of Jamaica

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016093000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_5.png

        12Z NAM

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016093012/nam_z500_mslp_watl_29.png

        2. Thanks JPD…doesn’t look good for Jamaica. Thankfully they do have a new prime minister who seems to be preparing the island as best they can.

  9. BULLETIN
    HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 10
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

    …MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST-
    SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…13.7N 70.8W
    ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM NE OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
    ABOUT 495 MI…800 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

  10. Matthew is serving as another great example of our inability to forecast rapid intensification. No one would’ve seen a major hurricane coming by now at this time yesterday.

  11. A trof deepening and trying to close off in SE Canada, trying to capture Matthew and bring it back towards New England.

    12z GFS. Interesting. Don’t know if I buy it, but interesting

  12. The 12z GFS, while still well offshore, is making me wonder about a different scenario, one that could be good for us. It shows Matthew interacting with low pressure moving in from the west, bringing rain up here….LOTS of rain. This has happened several times before with a tropical system that looked to be too far offshore to do anything. The most glaring example is Hurricane Lili in October 1996, which produced devastating flooding around here. despite the fact that the storm itself never got north of 35N latitude.

  13. Question…the crazy Mother’s Day rain storm many years ago…how did that form? Was it a merge of many storms into one? I wasn’t into weather then but we were talking about it.

    2. Huge anomalous upper level low spinning around in the upper midwest drawing a constant plume of moisture from the Atlantic right into new england.

    3. Remember that March snowstorm a few winter’s back when the surface low was closer to Bermuda but either the 850 and/or 500 mb flow drew moisture from it all the way back into eastern New England. Boston got clobbered with a foot of wet snow as I recall.

    1. yup

      BULLETIN
      HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
      NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
      200 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

      …MATTHEW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE JUST NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA
      PENINSULA…

      SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
      ———————————————-
      LOCATION…13.6N 71.3W
      ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
      ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
      PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

  15. Wow! This whole Matthew thing reminds me of so many pending “possible” snow storms in the Winter. Yes, no, Maybe, I dunno, perhaps, no, yes, no, yes……

    Can’t the models figure out anything.

    Waiting on the Euro now. 😀

    1. All it takes is for a disturbance to be in the data void of the arctic or the central Pacific Ocean to move into a region that has more upper level data and boom, the models have to adjust the upper level flow which changes everything.

      That negative AO teleconnection projection keeps popping into my mind. Makes me want to believe more meridional flow, so something like a north atlantic ridge developing, like on today’s 12z GFS, which helps to develop the SE Canada negative tilted trof, which pulls Matthew back closer to the coast. I could see that happen in a negative AO.

      This has been a fun storm to track and watch for future developments.

  16. GFS has come pretty much full circle. It initially showed landfall in Bar Harbor 4 or 5 days ago and now we are back where we started. Throw a dart!

        1. That’s the point you were making above. Now is this the new trend? Do we end up with it coming up
          Narragansette Bay? That would be the worst possible
          scenario for all of Eastern SNE.

          1. Could be ….. need more runs to see if this is a trend or a blip.

            Other thing that caught my eye ….

            Ensemble pressure supposed to be 1001 mb at 7 this morning. Maybe 998 mb 6 hrs later at 1pm. That’s only 38 mb too high.

            By the time its SE of New England, its projected to be 972mb on average or another 26 mb drop.

            Does that mean we should project a 26 mb drop from 960 mb ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. The GFS has it as 952 mb at our latitude.
              Whether or not it is still tropical or not,
              that is a mighty powerful storm.

              12Z Euro almost there. We’ll know what that has shortly.

  19. Tweet from Bernie:

    Video coming on Matthew..I think I have this figured out. I am off this weekend so this is my last video until Monday.

  20. Tom, I have noticed the storm strength on the extended GFS and Euro ensemble mean runs is usually lower than the operational run forecast. Usually get a lot of weak outliers that brings the average strength down.

          1. Weird.

            It just sit off of S. Florida almost as if it
            were waiting for the next trough before making a move.

            next

  22. Ryan Maue
    @RyanMaue

    ECMWF 12z init of Hurricane Matthew malfunctioned. Oddly shaped MSLP field which fixes itself by tau +6 but not sure about track impacts

        1. After the last few months, I’d say it is debatable whether or not that is the best model in the world. 😉

  26. I edited today’s blog entry with a short discussion for Days 1-5, and a few additions to Days 6-10 including a reference to SAK’s blog, which I think is an excellent write-up.

    1. Looks almost like it’s moving SW. It’s gonna have to make one hell of a turn to get to some of these forecast positionings.

  29. Southeastern Cuba and far southwestern Haiti are under the largest threat from Matthew. Jamaica may get a decent hit of wind/rain but may very well be spared the worst. Still, they should be on guard as if the worst is coming there.

  33. Matthew has been absolutely blowing the doors off of the intensity forecast in the Caribbean today. Just an astonishing rate of strengthening, under constant surveillance by a brave team of NOAA hurricane hunters. We’ll see what the NHC goes with for an intensity at 5PM. I’ll guess 130mph, but it’s possible it could be a shade higher.

      1. Holy Hurricane Batman!!!

        You were more than correct!

        BULLETIN
        HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
        NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
        500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

        …MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
        …HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA…

        SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
        ———————————————-
        LOCATION…13.5N 71.6W
        ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
        ABOUT 465 MI…750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
        MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
        PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
        MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…949 MB…28.03 INCHES

            1. Jamaica, especially Eastern Jamaica
              “could” take a direct hit and even if
              Matthew passes just to the East of Jamaica, they will certainly get a blow.

                1. Sorry, that is still only a HURRICANE WATCH.
                  my bad. I am sure it will become a warning as Matthew gets closer.

  35. I have a flight out to the west coast scheduled on October 10. Couple days ago I thought what ever was coming would be gone by then. Now I’m not so sure. Wondering if I should try be get out earlier. If I can’t get out Monday, I may as well not go as it’s only a 2 day conference on Tuesday and Wednesday 11-12.

  39. Whoa !!!!!

    Right into SE Mass.

    2 runs in a row that the GFS builds a North Atlantic ridge, 588 fm nudging up into Nova Scotia.

    Time for a few drinks

  42. .16 here…rain

    The discussion here has been fascinating. Thank you all. I notice I get even more excited when SAK gets involved in the Matthew conversation. 🙂

  47. What are the differences between “Computer Models” and “Ensemble Models” for tropical cyclones? There are two different maps labelled as such on “Weather Underground”…

    Also, at what point does a possible strike from Matthew become likely? You’re all much better than this than I, however, the GFS has had this storm on every run for at least a week if not longer. It has been nearly perfectly consistent. The latest (18z) certainly got my attention.

    When do I get gas for a generator, water, batteries, etc.? I am not one who panics. I do prepare. Must be the teacher in me.

    1. I don’t have answers for most of your questions. But I am also one who prepares. I have to dig out my lists and we are in a new house so it will be somewhat different….now or winter or whenever. We have a plug for generator hookup. Before we purchased i warned everyone there would be no generator 🙂

      I’d start prepping about four days out with little things such as yard furniture which goes away about now anyway down to ice for freezer and cooler just prior. We always have water and batteries and candles etc

      1. As for preparation, just keep tuned to later forecasts on Monday and Tuesday. I would think around that timeframe, much more should be known regarding track and intensity.

        2. I am not a teacher, but I like to be prepared well in advance as well. Just before Irene arrived (2011) I forgot batteries and I ran around from store to store for size D batteries. Plenty of other sizes. Most flaslights only take Ds.

    3. Ensembles are basically multiple runs of the same model with data tweaks in the name of getting a most likely scenario by looking at the spread of solutions.

      We will be inside 5 days before we really know…

  48. someone with more Hurricane experiance. why is it that down in the carribean
    the MB is at 973 with lots of purple off of the southeast coast, then when it comes up here there is alot less, but with a lower mb at 961

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093018/gfs_mslp_wind_14L_27.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093018/gfs_mslp_wind_14L_35.png

    is it because it becomes a cold center system? (post tropical) ??

    1. Yes, I don’t think it would be truly tropical anymore and receiving additional energy from the mid latitude jet stream to deepen the system and spread out the windfield, while the winds around the “center” would ease some.

      1. Next, I think we look at the 00z ensemble and as TK and SAK point out, look for consistency. If this repeats for 2, maybe 3 runs, then I’d think it’s time to panic.

  50. Felix, 2007, was indeed the last Category 5 in the Atlantic. Curiously, it’s probably the most comparable storm to Matthew in the entire historical record, although Felix continued westward and Matthew will not. Depending on one’s interpretation of the current recon data coming in from an Air Force plane now in the storm, Matthew may have ended that drought. We may see 140kts/160mph at the 11PM advisory.

  51. TK – Would you agree by Monday-Tuesday a general consensus one way or the other?

    Making preps or go about as normal.

      2. Just another piece of the puzzle. Probably doesn’t overlap exactly with the exact 18z GFS track, but it does support the westward shift of the GFS operational run 18z track over the next handful of days.

    1. Quite a pressure fall in 24 hrs. I find rapid intensification of tropical/mid latitude storms one of the most fascinating parts of meteorology.

  57. HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 12
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

    …MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…
    …THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007…

    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…13.3N 72.3W
    ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
    ABOUT 440 MI…710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB…27.79 INCHES

  59. I just did some antenna work out in the back yard as pertains to the AM and SW part of my hobby and then checked the latest info on the Hurricane Watch Net. Here it is

    http://www.hwn.org/policies/activationplans.html

    So if anyone else like me is involved in the radio hobby and as Shortwave or General Coverage receiver then you might find some of the stuff on the net interesting although at times it can pretty boring too. If you don’t have a radio that can capture those broadcasts I do believe they stream at times.

  64. This is similar in winter when a model calls for 1-2 feet a week in advance. Rarely does that happen and I agree with your Mark this likely won’t be the final solution.

  69. Place your bets on which model is going to be right.
    Same thing last year with Joaquin and the EURO won that battle.

        1. One week away .. no final call for several days.
          But if I were to lean, it would be the way I’ve been leaning for 2 days, and that’s an offshore center. How far offshore, no idea yet.

        1. I don’t know 🙂

          The EURO does have a ridge in the North Atlantic, it’s just further east and a bit weaker than the GFS.

  75. Good morning.

    Well after the GFS 12Z OTS yesterday, we now have 3 consecutive block buster
    runs with hits in various parts of SNE.

    0Z the other night

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093006/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_37.png

    yesterday’s 6Z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093006/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_37.png

    yesterday’s 12Z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093012/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_36.png

    yesterday’s 18 Z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093018/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_36.png

    last night’s 0Z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100100/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_33.png

    Today’s 6Z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100106/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_33.png

  78. re:Rain

    0.16 before midnight last night
    0.53 since midnight

    0.69 total with this event so far.

    Nice

  79. The thing about the last 3 GFS op runs is that it takes the system so close to Florida and the U.S. SE coastline and I’m struggling to find anything else that comes as close.

    1. FIM and NAVGEM. NAVGEM is typically garbage, but the FIM is not
      bad at all.

      At this point, I DISCOUNT THE EURO

      Even the CMC, although more off shore, is more in line with the GFS.

      1. Re : EURO, I hear you.

        I want to put like only 20 to 30% weight on the EURO.

        I’m afraid to give it 0 weight. I agree it’s had its struggled recently and not just with the tropics and yet, I find it difficult to believe it’s completely missing the big picture here.

    2. As much as the Euro is an outlier, the GFS is as well. But it’s not being looked at as such.

      Be cautious, folks. 🙂

    1. Yes, let’s form a model that extends a model that can’t perform for 2/3 of its run period. Great idea! 😛 NOT!

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