Friday Forecast

359 Comments

3:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
Colder weather has arrived and will last most of this 5-day period. A wave of low pressure will pass southeast of New England today, bringing a period of snow to southeastern MA and RI. Accumulation of snow will be generally minor though enough to shovel and possibly plow mainly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A second wave of low pressure will take a similar path, passing southeast of New England Saturday night. This wave will be larger and a little stronger than the first, and the envelope of snow will likely progress a little further northwest than the first one and be a little heavier as well. Accumulations are again expected to be heaviest over Cape Cod and the Islands but some of this will extend a little further northwest. Some ocean enhancement is possible due to wind off the water over Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore of MA, and possibly outer Cape Ann MA. This exits during the early hours of Sunday although some ocean-effect snow showers may continue into Sunday. During the day on Sunday, a disturbance in the upper atmosphere and a surface cold front will likely cause a round or 2 of snow showers especially in the afternoon. This will introduce the coldest air of the stretch for Sunday night through early Tuesday. But later Tuesday, it will have moderated somewhat, and the dry weather that dominates Monday will continue on Tuesday.
TODAY: Overcast morning with snow of 1-3 inches Cape Cod and Islands, dusting to 1 inch southeastern CT, RI, and southern suburbs of Boston to metro Boston, few flakes or nothing to the northwest. Clearing afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 15-23. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast morning. Overcast midday and afternoon with snow developing from south to north but probably not reaching south central and southwestern NH as well as north central MA. Highs 26-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with snow of a coating to 1 inch southeastern NH to east central MA eastern CT, 1-3 inches Cape Ann to Boston/Providence, 3-6 inches to the southeast except over 6 inches possible in portions of the South Shore, Cape Cod, and Islands. Partial clearing overnight except lingering snow showers South Shore of MA through Cape Cod. Lows 16-23. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Morning snow showers likely South Shore and Cape Cod. Isolated to scattered snow showers anywhere afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH morning shifting to W afternoon.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 18-25.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-15. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Mild with wet weather January 11. Slightly cooler but still unsettled at times January 12-13. Colder and dry January 14. Possible unsettled weather with rain/snow by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
Fairly mild pattern with a couple precipitation events possible, rain favored over snow.

359 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK! 06z Nams seem to back off a bit but look more realistic to me. Looking for a few surprises on this storm.

    1. Don’t think much will happen there this morning, maybe a coating between now and 8AM.

      1. I agree , it’s just been spitting and everyone is salting . I’m still thinking Boston tomorrow is in the minor camp in my opinion .

  3. I hope nobody was expecting to wake up to a snowstorm in the city of Boston today. It was never going to be that.

    1. I believe some areas from SS down through the cape cod towns will go over that higher amount from ocean enhancement .

  6. Hey TK! How we looking for Saturday snow? You can ignore my awaiting moderation comment as I mistyped my name.

    2. NWS is really calling for some high snow totals for the Cape and Islands…
      ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THIS MORNING WITH AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

  10. Not for nothing, but it is snowing pretty good here and we already have a solid coating
    covering everything.

  11. I got a coating here with the snow coming down at light clip.
    Too bad that storm will be offshore tomorrow and will have fringe effects. If that storm was closer to the benchmark it could have been a very nice dumping of snow.

  13. One thing with the trend with the short range models has been to pull the snow shield back west to get all of SNE into seeing snow.

  16. Interesting comment from the Upton NWS office.

    What in interesting is that the GFS model mass
    fields are similar to the ECMWF, yet the low track and comma head
    precipitation is not as far west. This may be due to a known bias
    of the model to not expand the precipitation on the NW flank of
    the storm.

  17. Thanks TK!

    Nothing too interesting that I see on the 0z or 6z guidance. Most of the 0z suite edged west a little, but now the 6z runs are a tad east. Typical wiggles. My gut-only feeling is still a late shift southeast. But TK’s first call numbers are very close to mine from yesterday and I think they’ll work out pretty well. I wonder if Nantucket may get a private high impact storm as it does once in awhile.

  18. Light snow. Thick coating. Off to school, see how the roads are. 🙂

    Can’t ignore the trend and the growing consensus continuing overnight. Probably would add an inch to last night’s thoughts. 2-3 Boston, 4-5 by Cape Bridges and with ocean help, easily 6+ on the mid and outer Cape.

    Looking forward to 2 things …

    1) At noon today, looking at how today’s system verified on the various models.

    2) what happens in the south later today and into the first half of tonight and how is that verifying on the models ?

  19. Well at least if next weeks temps are actually accurate most of this should melt away. I don’t trust that stupid weather app but who knows ha.

  20. Burst of moderate snow continues. Closing quick on an inch.

    Can tell town roads have been treated, but this burst of snow is overwhelming that treatment and the roads have become snow covered.

    1. I know …. it appears that this first system is verifying …. and then some.

      As a result, as the minutes go by this morning, makes me want to go even higher and higher on tomorrow’s system.

  23. Moderate snow in Middleborough right now. Slow commute (20 mph) from Taunton to the ‘Boro down Route 44.

  27. Very pretty snow this morning, and it’s over performing in some areas in SE Mass. The snow has that very soft, sugary look to it. Ratios must be around 15:1, maybe even a tad higher in spots. Still, just a nuisance level event for most.

    1. That’s a radar issue, a problem with the KBOX radar that seems to have been worsening for some time. There’s always going to be a bit of a blind spot near the radar, but it shouldn’t be anything like that.

    2. Indeed there is. The back edge that appeared to be cruising a short time ago seems to have slowed. Perhaps my wishful imagination.

  29. Closing in on 2 inches in Westwood due to fluff factor this morning. This storm overachieved a bit as will tomorrow evening’s storm. Again, won’t take much moisture to produce a half a foot of snow for the southern suburbs of Boston. Still looking like a moderate snow storm Boston with perhaps a major snowstorm southeast especially cape cod.

  30. Shown ratios being reported at close to 20:1. Agree arod we don’t need a lot of precip to get decent to high snow totals.

  31. About an inch and a half on my car when I left for work this morning. Roads were awful. Visibility on route 3 was very poor and it looks as though the road had not been treated at all.

  32. Hmm, the 9z SREF has now gone ahead with the substantial backoff that I’ve been looking for. It’s not a miss, just more in line with other guidance. Should mean that the NAM will continue the eastward correction that began in slight form with its 6z run.

    1. Worth noting that spread on the plumes is very high. Majority of members are above the mean, but several members with near nothing.

    2. For Boston Mean down from 11 to 8.
      Let’s see what the 12Z NAM has to say and then the others, including the 15Z SREF. I’ll bet it’s back up and the 9Z was just normal fluctuation. Time will tell.
      😀

  34. I had to shovel all of the walks. More snow than I even thought when I first looked out.
    Nearly 1 inch on the ground as of 8AM. My car was really loaded.

    And the fluff factor! Wow. This is LOW water content snow. At least 15:1 and would not surprise me if Hadi were correct and it is 20:1. Really fluff.

    Visibility has let up and is at about 1 mile perhaps a tad more after previously being
    at 1/2 mile or less.

    All-in-all, I am pleasantly pleased with this little event because I didn’t expect much.

    Now regarding tomorrow, IF the ratios are anything like today, the highest model
    number could definitely be achieved. Time will tell.

    I am so anxiously awaiting the 12Z runs. 😀

      1. Back end has not moved too far from where it was when I posted an hour ago. However, snow here is now on the lighter side; so even ahead of the back edge, the accumulation seems to be slowing.

  36. Nice ocean enhancement along the south shore and cape cod. However, snow is not coming down quite as hard as the radar would indicate. All in all, I agree with Dave. An event that slightly overachieved. Fluff factor tomorrow won’t be quite as impressive but it should be in the 12-15:1 ratio area. I’m not buying in on the 9z SREF. Winter Storm Warnings for Boston will be hoisted later today or this evening.

    1. IF the 12Z NAM shows a significant back off, then I’ll buy the 9Z SREF, but
      IF not, No way. NAM is cooking. I have out to 12 hours so far. 😀

  38. Again all though some areas did get more today than thought again Boston was spot on and should be winding down like real soon . SS still snowing as expected and will clear out early afternoon .

  39. I measured 1 inch, perhaps an eight less, on deck. Hard to measure since it is, as has been said, fluffy.

        1. Ahhhhh – you have not been around and I apologize as should have posted location. I am in Sutton now, Arod!

    1. This model has corrected itself. That snowfall map is likely what is close to what will occur tomorrow. Still very impressive and represents a significant increase from what some believed 24-36 hours ago.

  41. 12z NAM very close to the 6z, maybe a few miles east, and no longer the sort of outlier we saw yesterday.

  43. 12Z NAM is showing that Norlun feature keeping the Snow going in Eastern MA and especially the South Shore, Cape and Islands. Even though the storm center is well
    off shore, the snow extends well to the North West of the center. Waiting for a final snow total. It still looks to be down some, but still significant.

  45. Snow just tapered off here in Coventry CT. Measured 2.3″ That is a bit more than I expected. Hoping we can double that total tomorrow!

  46. Wife said maybe not quite an inch where we are. Turnpike into Boston this morning was just wet. Regular speed.
    If tomorrows ratios are above 13:1, I’ll be surprised. The 75th percentile for SNE is 13.3. If it goes above that, it’s a 1 in 4 event. Obviously it can happen. We could use the precip.
    Boston may get a warning from the NWS, but I’m not sure Boston proper sees 6″. It could be close.

    1. From the NAM …… that seems, in my opinion, a much more reasonable projection.

      Unlike last night, where I was thinking to multiply the NAM projections by .4, on this, I might trim 1 inch off those amounts and just tighten the NW fringe a bit to bring it further south and east.

  51. And that is all she wrote. Other than a bit of spitting.

    Just an inch or as I said earlier barely under. Looks beautiful.

  53. My guess is 3-4 inches here on the South Coast.
    Thank you all for doing the great and accurate job that you do. I have been a long time stalker ! Dating back to the BZ blog when I lived on the Northshore..
    Please don’t forget to include your thoughts on the South Coast area !! Swansea / Somerset .
    Thanks Again!!

  54. So, it now appears that unless there are some drastic last minute changes (which can always happen), Boston “should” come in right around 6 inches with 6-10 inches
    as one heads to the South Short and the Cape. Fairly sharp drop off North and West
    of the city. A slight wobble in either direction would move those totals either way.

    Before too long we’ll be into now casting mode for tomorrow’s event.

    I still say there are 2 wild cards for tomorrow in no particular order:

    1. Norlun event extending heavier snow more NW than otherwise would be expected.
    2. With NE winds blowing in from the ocean and more than adequate SST, surface temp and 850 temperatures to allow for “possibly” significant ocean enhancement.
    One can never tell about these things, but it needs to be monitored. Perhaps it will
    be just minor enhancement. BUT, It would not surprise me to see places like
    Braintree, Weymouth, Hingham, Rockland, Norwell, Hanover and surrounding area in line for the jackpot.

    1. I’ve been concerned about that a norlun event for a few days now but I think it remains over parts of the cape.

    2. That looks pretty reasonable to me as much as I would like to see it be more.
      I still think Boston comes in closer to the 6, which is still in that range.

      I would have made it 4-7 and the other range be 8-12, even if it had to be
      shifted a tad SE. But that is nit picking. That map ain’t bad. Even so it
      “may” need to be tweaked.

    4. Why ….. why …. why does the lowest band amount, in this case, 1-3 inches appear to be as wide as all the other larger amounts? So, the precip from this next coastal storm is going to reach all the way west or northwest to what that 1-3 inch band shows. Just that alone makes me question all else on the projection.

      1. Vicki,
        I think we come in right around 3 out our way. We could sneak another inch, but these kind of south coast storms we don’t usually do more than 3-4. It’ll cut off pretty sharp as you get towards the Pike.

        1. Thanks blackstone. That was my thinking also. Perhaps enough to allow for sledding again. My under above was for Boston.

          I would love a big whalop but truly do not mind the smaller storms.

    5. I want to say under as well, but if the wind is juuuuust right for a period of time, I could see Logan getting into an ocean effect band and getting up over the 6″ mark very easily. SW suburbs, not so much

  57. Tom took under I’ll take the over. Had a bit of a relapse in my thinking early this morning but have recovered solid 6 plus Boston down SS. With cape 8-12inches.

  60. I’ll make a more detailed call after the rest of the 12z guidance comes in. I may have to slightly up my original numbers, but it shouldn’t be by much. 3-4″ is floating in my head for Boston. A big part of that will be fluff factor, which is something to take notice of given what we’ve seen today. Measured 1.6″ in Wrentham, more than I expected. It certainly didn’t feel like that much moving it around. Could’ve cleared it with a broom. But it counts just the same.

    2. I measured about that in Sharon as well. WBZ last night was still saying coating to 1″ for the area but all other stations were saying 1-2” and they verified nicely. Ch 4 is usually on the higher end for most storms but not lately and given Eric Fisher’s continued skepticism about tomorrow’s storm I expect them to be under again.

  61. Is tomorrows snow overnight? I thought it was Saturday overnight until early Sunday morning but Channel 7 says:

    “We start to see the chance for snow by tomorrow morning, especially by mid-morning, with the likely chance for snow through Saturday afternoon and evening. The Boston Metro stands to see 1-3″ of snow by late Saturday night, with the chance for 3-6″ of snow again across the Cape & Islands.”

    1. I was just going to post that. Everything is coming together.

      I still think you need to bump your Boston totals by 30% or so. 😀

      1. We will take down decorations…..my little deer looking up at star in tree, Angel and manger. But we will leave lights on the bushes. I love to light them when it snows.

        1. I leave my lights that are in the tree out front and in the bushes up until late march/early april

    2. Have yourself a Merry “Little Christmas” .. That song takes on new meaning today. Will post my favorite version on FB later. 🙂

      1. One of my favorites. My favorite version is from Christmas Eve on Sesame Street which I truly believe is a movie for young and old. Bert and Ernie sing it after Mr Hooper gives them gifts. His gifts are the ones they had traded with him to buy something for each other.

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Jmh7St_sZQ

  67. hate these storms more than storms that give areas to the north snow. this type of storm just pissed me off. Especially in seasons in which we have barely got anything. BOOOOO!

        1. Man, you snow lovers are harsh. You don’t get snow, you gripe. You get snow, you gripe. Somebody else gets more than you, you gripe. Somebody gets lass than you, you gripe.
          See a trend 🙂

          1. Want a decent method to use?

            Take the qpf totals and multiply by 12 to 15.

            For example, here it is for the GFS.

            http://imgur.com/a/hUIL4

            It has 0.65 inch for Boston.

            at a literal 10:1 that equates to 6.5 inches
            at 11:1 it is: 7.2 inches
            at 12:1 it is: 7.8 inches
            at 13:1 it is: 8.5 inches
            at 14:1 it is: 9.1 inches
            at 15:1 it is: 9.75 inches
            at 16:1 it is: 10.4 inches

            Therefore, based on the GFS Kuchera Map, it has essentially calculated the ratio to be
            about 16:1 for the event tomorrow.

            That ratio makes a HUGH difference in the snow accumulation!

            I have no idea IF that is correct. I think it will be
            12:1 for sure, how much more than that is up in the air.

      2. It certainly makes an attempt at it and is far superior to the
        straight 10:1 method, but it is not without its flaws. I have
        not seen a perfect snow algorithm, but at least this takes
        into account temperatures at different levels, especially the
        snow growth level.

        I remember JMA commenting on this method in the past.
        He had concerns for sure, but I “think” he thought that it
        was better than using a straight 10:1 ratio all of the time.

        So far this year even, I have seen Kucher More than 10:1 and Less than 10:1 depending on ratio, so it has not been too bad.
        I have also seen it about the same. So from a practical standpoint, it has been good.

        1. One more thing…

          I am not sure that each site implements the method
          in the same manner. I am wondering if some sites
          “tinker” with the algorithm and make their own
          changes to it.

          I knwo the person running the Euro subscription site
          that Mark and I have, has designed his own proprietary
          algorithm.

  69. 12z GFS kuchera method gives my are the most snow that any GFS has given so far.
    The 10:1 map is been consistent with all GFS runs of an inch for my area.

  70. Re GFS snow map :

    Why does the snow bulge in New England ?

    Have a look in NYC, extreme SE PA. Nearly forecasts nothing there, but I’d think there should be something as they are a similar distance from the low pressure area.

    There must be something tugging the precip shield further north and west when the low passes New England that is not occurring further down the coast. Without that, given how far the low is SE of the benchmark, I don’t see why the snow should be being projected to make such inroads into interior southern New England.

      1. Yeah. Ok, if it’s that, is it reasonable to expect a norlun trof to be that productive over that large of an area ?

        1. Bernie rayno mentioned the upper level low starts to go negative as the low to south starts to pull away and the upper low pulls storm back a bit. He said it’s something Boston needs to watch.

    2. also remember the coastline is not exactly like that map depicts. Angle the map a bit to the right and then push long island a bit to the left and you have your real locations.

  71. I agree with arod that while 10:1 is certainly too low for this storm, the Kuchera is overdone, and I’d say probably by about as much as the 10:1 is underdone. It looks to be showing close to 20:1. I think you go pretty much right down the middle. 15:1, a little lower to the south, slightly higher northwest, but a good compromise for most including Boston.

  72. No snow map yet, but the 12z CMC has jogged northwest a little as well. So we’ll wait on the European guidance, but the early 12z models would seem to support a somewhat more robust solution.

      1. Looking at precip map, ONLY about 0.5 inch qpf at boston.

        Using a 15:1 ratio, that would equate to about 7.5 inches of SNOW, with a immediate drop off NW of the city.

  73. Timing question–driving Natick to Providence leaving around 12:00 pm and then driving Providence to Natick leaving about 4:00 pm–predictions for the roads around those times?

    1. Good luck! You’ll be driving on mostly likely treacherous roadways, depending
      on skill and treatment times of the DPW crews.

  74. Happy 12th Day of Christmas, Three Kings’ Day.

    Hearing the inevitable – lights are being brought in for 11-month storage – always makes me a bit melancholy. My Christian mother and Jewish father raised me Jewish, but they made sure I knew the meaning of all religious holidays. I grew to love Christmas, and not just for the presents.

    In terms of the weekend snow, I thought yesterday this would be a CC & Islands special and my thinking hasn’t wavered at all. I do think ocean-effect snows will enhance totals in places like Wellfleet. Could come in over 10 inches in spots when all is said and done on Sunday.

    2. It also makes me melancholy, Joshua. Mac has two cousins who married into the Jewish faith. Both couples raised their children to know the meaning of all holidays. I had a lot of Jewish friends growing up and was always fascinated. I think it is something folks need in order to understand that different faiths do not make us different as people.

      My old soul grandson has been moving the Wise Men closer to the manger in my livingroom each day since Christmas. He and his younger brother, without any coaching, arranged the other figures to form a line on both sides leading to the Babe and to guide the Wise Men to their final destination. Neither has form religious training. The innate understanding of children is fascinating.

    1. It looks like there totals are suppressed a bit to the SE compared to Channel 5, but essentially very similar.

      1. That 6-12 inch line needs to include Boston as the far northern extent. 6 for Boston and 12 for the cape give or take an inch or two in some locales.

  80. JP Dave, I am NOT saying there won’t be snow in Boston. I think we get a few inches. But, the `real’ snows will likely be to our southeast.

    2. Folks may be surprised at the range over a very short distance once you are just south of the city…

      1. Oh, I believe that.
        Boston will NOT be in the jackpot, but I still think it will
        get its fair share. 😀

        I am on record as predicting 7.2 inches. Let’s see HOW far off I will be. 😀

  81. Ok, if there is going to be that kind of flow at 850 mb off of the ocean, I’ll jump on board and come up on snow expectations. Under that setup, perhaps the Cape is not the potential bullseye, perhaps it’s those SW suburbs of Boston into northeastern most RI ?????

    1. Are you saying ZERO ocean enhancement? I understand the favored areas
      on the South Shore (I listed some of the towns above) would get enhancement
      for sure.

      I am most interested in all of the technical reasons why Boston wouldn’t
      get any.

      It seems to be that they should get “some” enhancement, even if not
      near the levels of the jackpot areas.

  83. 12z UKMET is in. Always a little hard to tell, but looks very similar to 0z. No noteworthy shift. Only one big model left to go…

    The WBZ snow map looks pretty good to me right now. 12″ may be hard to achieve anywhere. It’s a progressive storm. Also, as TK has alluded to, the gradient will likely be sharper than any models or TV mets forecast.

  85. I certainly believe you TK, but then I’m back at a complete loss as to how those GFS snow projections could ever verify. Seems to me the only explanation for the GFS snow totals is the moisture advection at 850mb.

  88. 12z Euro is in- a nice short wait when we’re only 24-36 hours out! It’s a bit west of its 0z run, not a huge change but noticeable. On a 10:1 ratio, the 6″ line straddles I95 from Boston to Providence.

  89. What time is the snow expected to start tomorrow?

    If ocean enhancement were to occur it usually gets no further north than Quincy. Any where south of Quincy would be the likely area to receive this enhancement.

  91. The Euro doesn’t really change my thoughts much, so I’ll go ahead with what I’m thinking now, which is an uptick from yesterday…

    *6-10″ from just northeast of a Plymouth to New Bedford to Kingston, RI line extending out over the Cape and Islands, isolated amounts may get to a foot depending on ocean enhancement.
    *3-6″ from just outside the BOS/PVD corridor southeastward.
    *1-3″ northwest of there tapering to near nothing around Fitchburg.

    Selected locales…
    *Boston: 4.1″
    *Providence: 4.5″
    *Worcester: 1.8″
    *Sandwich (jackpot): 11.9″

    While I’m not sure either of the big cities will technically meet the criteria, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Winter Storm Warnings issued from Boston to Providence southeastward, with a ribbon advisories northwest of that.

    2. I like your Boston number I like 4.5 but decided to go lower . Don’t think wind will matter.

  92. If what the models show next weekend happens I be happy since im heading up north for a ski weekend. 😉

      1. I’ mo sorry, I do NOT agree with the 18-24 crap, But the numbers to the North of there look good to me.

  94. I am hoping my 1-3 gets bumped up to 2-4 in Ryan Hanrahan’s new snow map. I wonder what he is seeing to bump the totals up statewide.
    I’m bumping up snow totals across the state for Saturday. New map shortly.

      1. CNN now saying Broward cty sheriff saying multiple people dead. Terminal 2 baggage claim which is not as secure….a delta terminal.

  97. Shooting at Ft Lauderale airport. Reports say 9 injured. One report said one death but other reports are not mentioning that. Shooter is contained. They feel it was a lone shooter.

  99. Here is the Euro Snow map.

    http://imgur.com/a/llRzt

    Some notes:

    Shows a snow total of 8.2 inches for Boston with ration of 13:1 through most, but ending as 15:1.

    Total Sat qpf: 0.61 inch
    Surface winds North, however, during the height of the storm, 850 MB winds
    NE at 30 knots or 35 mph.

    Some other snow totals:

    boston: 8.2
    Woburn: 6.9
    Sutton: 5.6
    Weymouth: 8.4
    Brockton: 11.5
    Raynham: 11.3
    Swansea: 11.3
    Norwell: 7.2
    Pembroke: 8.8
    Providence: 11.2
    Falmouth: 9.9
    Marshfield: 6.5
    Gloucster: 6.2
    Hartford: 4.0

    Ahh that’s enough.

    2. I really think that the ROARING 850MB wind in from the ocean has something
      to do with higher numbers so far from the storm center.

      1. I do too. It’s like it is its own separate small scale event apart from the coastal low. The coastal system may have an indirect effect at setting up the flow ……..

        1. I just wonder after all is said an done that the models
          and forecasters are Under Estimating the potential
          effect this could have?

          Remember that March system a few years back where the center was like 400+ miles off shore?

          We had that 850MB flow, but I think it had 500MB as well? Can’t remember. But you get the idea, it can have a significant effect.

          Btw, we CAN have Ocean Effect snow with a surface
          wind North but an 850MB wind NE.

          Let me check the 925 mb wind.
          be right back. hmmm NNE at 40 knots boston,
          NE at 50 Knots far South Shore. Interesting.

          That can do it.

          From NWS

          Much of this strong lift appears to
          occur in the snow growth region which should result in snow ratios
          greater than climo…somewhere in the neighborhood of 15:1.

          Snowfall will be enhanced across coastal
          Plymouth county and Cape Cod as NNE winds combine with very cold
          blyr over relatively warm SST to yield very steep low level lapse
          rates (-12C at 850 mb and +8C SST = Delta-T of 20C!) and ocean
          effect snow bands coming onshore into coastal Plymouth and Cape Cod.
          This may also be the case for coastal Essex county (Cape Ann area)
          but to a lesser extent.

          Interesting day ahead tomorrow

      1. No, I think I made a mistake. Let me double check.

        MY BAD!! Providence: 8.4 inches.

        I hope the rest aren’t screwed up. Nope rest look ok

  100. Marshfield came in at 3.2 inches. That seems very accurate, certainly more than I expected.

    Wonder if the NWS will think there’s enough wind potential to hoist a blizzard watch in far SE Mass ??

  101. Call me crazy but I don’t think this comes together like expected. No proof, just a feeling. Perhaps a semi-bust, computer models be damned ha.

    2. Call me a weather weenie, A weather enthusiast, A SnowNUT, A wishful thinker, or just plain nuts, But I believe this event tomorrow WILL over achieve.

      I am really beginning to feel it.

      Watch out.

      😀 😀 😀

      1. It’s exactly for that reason I am suspicious. Guess we will see! If Charlie was here (is he still?) he would have my back haha.

          1. Well if you don’t like snow, it’s positive ha. You are right…out of our hands. Has happened plenty of times before in both directions. No way to know.

  103. Sorry I’ve been MIA lately folks – a combination of a lot of things. Anyway, I had 1.8″ here at Storm HQ World Headquarters in Brockton this morning, a little more than I expected when I made my forecast last night, but overall it worked out well.

    I wrote a new blog post this afternoon about our storm, the snow in the southeast, and Mother Nature’s impending assault on the West Coast. I hope you enjoy it: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2017/01/06/great-white-plague-takes-aim-on-southeast-and-new-england/

    1. Nicely done. Nice read. Many thanks for sharing.

      Does your 6-10 include the entire City of Boston?
      Or just the Southern and Southwestern neigborhoods?

      Earlier I had predicted 7.2 inches for Boston, but am thinking about upping that.
      😀

      1. For now, I’m thinking right around 6 in Boston. I’ll have a lot more time to give things a look when I’m at work this evening.

        1. Thanks SAK. Excellent write up. We appreciate you taking the time! I’m also thinking about upping my total of 6 in the city. The solution is becoming more amplified. Hence a stronger and closer pass. The NE fetch off the waters should also enhance snowfall and with high snow ratios, this storm always had the potential to overachieve. The wild card for surprisingly high totals over southeast mass will be whether a norlun type feature also develops as hinted by the GFS for quite a few model runs.

          1. Arod,

            As Tom suggested, we may actually benefit (well snow lovers) from the above average SSTs.

            So as we have been saying, in addition to synoptic snow, we have Ocean Enhancement and a “possible” Norlun type extension of SNow NW and W. Very interesting.

        3. sierra Nevada that is crazy and also extremely goof for their drought, not so much the rain that is falling as that will lead to major flooding, but the snow will be really benifical. How much water is with that though, I am guessing its a very very dry rocky mountain snow

  104. Boston I believe has 5.9 for the season and if everything plays out there they will exceed the seasonal total thus far with this storm.

  105. Overachievement/ underachievement ….

    Potential there for both.

    Sorry Matt, but the Merrimack valley, central and northern Worcester county …. Any area not getting into that NE 850mb flow and that’s dependent on synoptic snow from the storm way to the south, I think the underachievement potential is very high.

    Someone south and east of Boston to Providence is going to overachieve. Going to get stuck in a convergence band. It will be an area that’s oriented southwest to northeast.
    Cape will underachieve because now the expectations for snowfall is so ridiculously high.

    Boston to me is a real tough call. I’ll come up to 5″, so I guess they slightly underachieve.

    1. I am wondering if there will be a sharp cutoff right by Boston so amounts fall off headed north pretty quick.

      1. ALL models showed that, however, they did have the snow
        extend some to the N&W, but with a pretty decent drop off
        after that.

    2. i can be hopeful, these types of storms I rather come north and give us rain. Make the snow useful Down south no use. waste of snow and cold.

    3. Tom I think somebody from say hingham to Plymouth that stretch is going to exceed 12 inches . SS is the jack pot

      1. Is that from ERIC?

        I was about to reach through the TV and Strangle him last night
        when He said Light snow event from somewhat South of
        Boston to the N&W and moderate South of that line.

        I said this earlier. I told my wife he was WRONG and of course she mocked me and said I didn’t know what I was talking about.
        We shall see. 😀

        1. Not sure who it was from. The original post was from Danielle Niles, but it has since been updated with the new graphic.

  108. Those watches should be upgraded to warnings in 3pm hour.
    Worcester area CT Springfield Hartford area would not be surprised to see winter weather advisories issued.

  110. Driving to Maine. Of course going to miss this one but BZ is way better than what they had earlier. Much more inline with my thinking.

    Boston-9.8
    PVD-8.3
    Plymouth-16.9
    ORH-4.8

  115. 18Z NAM has it snowing 5 inches in Boston in 3 hours (7.1 inches as of 4PM) Now that’s getting into an impressive area. Center appears to be Closer still this run. Still cranking
    Waiting for finals.

  116. Even here in CT showing a 5-8 inch snowfall being shown by 18z NAM.
    If those ratios are higher than 10:1 we could tack on some to those totals.

    1. that shows 7 to 8 inches for my area, with 10-1 rations can add another 2 inches or so. Send it further north and west, maybe this will continue to trend and the cape and south shore gets some rain mixed in, one can only hope. 😀

  119. Hi folks! I just need a moment to reset something before I can use my main account.

    I have reviewed the latest information, and am in general agreement with SAK (no surprise). Will adjust accordingly in an update in a while. I may re-issue the entire blog post but we’ll see. I’ll let you know.

  120. I think some of their numbers are a little high, especially on the Cape, but the NWS discussion is a great read (too long to post here, but I’ll link it). The trend remains west. I don’t like going too far up on the numbers all at once though. Westward trend now does not preclude a late shift east. However, plenty of reason for southeast New England snow enthusiasts to be happy.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. Love this line, “…given the synoptic forcing (discussed below) of the amplifying pattern, would want to draw the storm more N/W towards the lower heights aloft and introduce a more amplified S stream of
      moisture. Increasing baroclinicity, stronger cyclogenesis, boom.”

    2. Nice. Thanks. Excellent write-up. I enjoyed reading that one.

      Here is what I Took away from that (in addition to all of the other good stuff)

      snow ratios around 15:1 to 20:1

  122. Sorry JPDave. Was just picking up the kids when you wrote me. Indeed, a very interesting situation indeed. I may need to increase my 6 inch projection for boston. The snow map from WBZ looks to be right on the money. I was confident about this storm a few days ago but not to this extent. It should be fun!

  124. Blizzard warnings up for Norfolk and Virginia Beach.
    Kids down there may very well end with a long weekend.

  126. Looked primarily at the 850 mb charts for the 18z NAM ….

    Believe the moist ocean component at 850mb begins around 14z or 11am.

    With each passing hour, the inflow of moisture at 850mb slowly intensifies.

    At 22z or 5pm, looks like moisture inflow is very rich.

    I noticed at 23z, looking just north and west of Boston, the 850mb wind switches from NE to N. Then slowly, with each passing hour, that shifting of the 850 mb wind from NE to N slowly moves southeastward.

    So, sometime tomorrow evening, I think that NW side of the snow shield will begin to collapse southeastward, first in northern Worcester county and the Merrimack valley as the moisture filled 850 mb flow gets cut off.

    I hypothesize that Boston’s max snowfall time potential tomorrow is from 2 to 8pm.

      1. Above, ok then yes. Sorry, I’m a bit tired. Students were extra excited today with the snow and the extra energy needed for class management was a lot. 🙂

  127. It would not surprise me at all to see a Blizzard warning put up along our South Shore
    coast line. Not in the slightest.

    1. Not sure winds will quite make it. But lots of blowing snow still possible even if it’s below the official criteria.

  128. So now we see it happening. The storm that most people thought would be O.T.S. based only on models and not meteorology is not going to be O.T.S. … The method used by some of us to caution not to dismiss it is not easily described in words, but is rather a process of thinking and analysis that you really only learn by doing once you have a solid basic knowledge of the science. If you don’t, it’s called a lucky guess. 😉

    Even the most bold forecast will not usually call for a heavy storm out of one that all guidance basically has as a miss, so you’ll see us kind of pull into the moderate category and hold there, with the caveat that there is still a lot of uncertainty. Well as we draw ever close to this 2nd “event” in 2 days, the details are becoming more clear. I defer to SAK’s blog post because he basically has stated everything I would have said (and a lot more) if I were to continue this comment.

    I’ll be working on an updated blog post in a while, which either way will be good as the comments will probably be very active and breaking it up will make it easier for anyone that has to scroll the entire thing on a phone. There will of course be another blog post tomorrow morning as the “final call” on the upcoming event and the usual 3 segment forecast.

    For the next little while, we can just continue to discuss things here on this blog post and I’ll let you know when the next one is ready. It’s time to brew some coffee to accompany me in the WHW office this afternoon. 😉

  130. Excellent write up SAK. Seems perhaps a bit more than the three I thought our here is possible.

    As far as today’s snow….I must say I enjoy the kind of snow that removes itself from the driveway and walks. I used to love shoveling but a shoulder injury now prevents it so this works well

  132. Based on new information…..none of it technical and all of it formed pretty much by reading various reports and then the scientific method of picking a number that has a meaning to me…….I am reversing my previous Boston number and will say 6.18 in Boston.

    2. And I take this from it:

      We are now forecasting a large area of 8-14” of snow for all of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the Islands. In fact, there may be some locally higher amounts along the South Shore due to some ocean enhancement within the bands of snow. Would not be shocked to see 18” or a bit more in some highly localized snow bands along the South Shore.

    3. LOL, that arrow is pointed directly over our heads. I mean, that’s exactly where I live. Bullseye 🙂 🙂 🙂

  134. Hold onto to your hats. The 18Z 4km NAM with the Kuchera snow totals is almost
    complete! AMAZING totals!! I’ll have to calculate the ratios used. This is from
    the College of Dupage site, so I presume it is pretty god,.

  135. Double digit snowfall totals at 8pm tomorrow on 4km NAM in the Boston area. This is the kuchera method. Will be interested to see final total.

    1. That is what I am a waiting for…

      at 1Z up to 14.5 inches at Boston!!! nearing 20 inches to the South and SW.

  138. So, TOM did you see what I saw?

    I the wind is N just inland and NE just off shore, there must be a convergence
    zone in between. No?

    I just think this thing is going to SNOW BUCKETS!!

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a period of 2+ inch per hour snow rates.

    1. We’re supposed to attend a big party in Stoughton tomorrow at 7PM.
      I love driving in the snow, but my wife gets terrified.
      She probably won’t want to go.

    2. Yup, some additional convergence at the surface to work in tandem with the moisture inflow at 850mb.

      Thats one of those where the harbor buoy will have a wind from 030 or 040 and Logan’s wind will be from 360. Usually best to be sitting a bit west of that boundary.

  139. Personally, the funny part of all of this for me ….

    I’m supposed to be traveling up to the Lowell area tomorrow for a family get together and then stay into Sunday to visit other friends in the area.

    Oh well ……..

  140. The 18Z 4km NAM just won’t shut off the snow. Not sure what is keeping it going?
    Norlun? More convergence? It ain’t blocking to Our North somewhere.

    1. There is no norlun involved with this. There is a small surface trough that will progress southwestward ahead of the low (not related to it) and help kick off snow on Cape Cod first thing in the morning. This boundary may hang about to help enhance stuff down there but should not be a factor for too long.

  144. Looking at the 4km NAM on the cod site it feels like the Blizzard of 2015 in terms of snow totals where my area gets a nice snowfall half of foot but eastern parts of SNE get a big dumping of snow.

  145. What is the 4km NAM seeing that the others are not?

    It clearly has the axis of heaviest snow from Northern RI, across areas like
    Wrentham, Franklin, Norfolk, Millis, Medfield, Walpole, Westwood, Dedham, Needham
    and on into Boston. Incredible SNOW amounts on this run. Does not mean it is correct, but the numbers are huge as in 17-21 inches across the areas I just mentioned. Still
    a bit of snow to go. Map and some selected town totals coming shortly. 😀

    1. Conective FeedBack? Agita? Did Mr. 4km Nam take too much Viagra?

      I hope the hell it is CORRECT, but it appears to be sticking out as an outlier.

      Still, fun to look at. If it were just high numbers across the board, I’d be more
      suspicious, but the new Jackpot area has me intrigued.

    2. My guess is that it’s seeing something erroneously. Be careful about running with the highest model especially if it’s an outlier from its brothers and sisters.

      1. I understand that. Not running with it. Just enjoying the output.

        Let’s see what the other family members say at 0Z.

        In the meantime here is its total snowmap (kuchera)

        http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/2017010618/NE/NAM4KMNE_prec_kuchsnow_036.png

        Some towns (estimated locations. I can’t pinpoint exactly)

        Boston 17.3
        Wrentham 20.5
        Sutton 15.8
        Worcester 14.2
        Marshfield 9.8
        Woburn 15.6
        Brockton 19.8
        millis 19.8
        Westwood 21.1
        Jamaica Plain 19.5
        Waterbury CT 7.9
        Billerica 13.9
        Swansea 13.5
        Hyannis 10.7
        Gloucester 13.2
        Lowell 12.8
        Nashua 7.8
        concord nh 1.9

    3. Are you looking at a northeast screenshot or a country wide projection on the 4km NAM ?

      If it’s a country wide shot, how do the projected snowfall amounts in the Deep South look ? Do they look reasonable ???? I’d guess they’d be overdone down there and then it would be reasonable to therefore conclude the northeast projected amounts are overdone too.

  146. Nam 10-1
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017010618&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    Nam kuchera
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010618&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Nam4km 10-1
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017010618&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    Nam4km Kuchera
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010618&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    3KM 10-1
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017010618&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    Kuchera
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010618&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    The nam has trended further west but this is the 18z, so kind of hesitant to get to excited, but it is within 24 hours of the event so need to look at it.

    All show Southeast mass getting at least a foot of snow . 12+
    shows 6 to 15 for boston area to 495.

    2. The totals down south actually look low to me. Is this total from say right now through 15Z sunday? Or is this a 12hr period so maybe its missing some of the time down south? The position of the heaviest snow down south looks further north and west than what most if not all other models are showing

    3. Interesting.

      I was expecting to see all that projected snow that was showing up last night on the 00z runs.

      I’m not sure if those are reasonable amounts for the mid Atlantic.

        1. so now let me get this straight…

          The number South of us are too low
          and the numbers here are too high?????

          I find that hard to believe. Either it had convective feedback issues or it didn’t. Can’t have it both ways.

          1. I agree, something isnt right. Unless the south is gonna get shafted. They were predicting 12-15″ down there along the VA coast.

    1. Look at the HRRR starting to pick up on the gathering moisture off the mass coastline. (I’m guessing that’s what the splotchy accumulations are)

      So, ok, seems they overlap very closely, but the 4km NAM is definitely showing more than the HRRR.

  151. 18Z GFS is coming out and looks juicy.
    Totals down South generally 11-13 inches across the snow areas.

  152. ***ALERT ALERT ALERT*** (Gee I hope I don’t get in trouble for doing that…)

    I have issued a new blog post. So please move there and continue comments. 🙂

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