Friday Evening Update

262 Comments

4:44PM

This is an extra blog post to update the storm for some changes. Much of the information under the updated section is the same as in the previous post. Another post will be made on Saturday morning.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
We now have a well-sampled weather system by reliable guidance and can safely detail snow amounts for the upcoming event (wave #2). The first one went by Friday morning and delivered the expected snow in most areas, but a few locations actually received more than expected. This is not highly unusual in a cold situation and with some marginal ocean-enhancement. Some totals of 4 to 7 inches occurred where I had only 1 to 3 inches forecast. This is a difference of a very small amount of melted precipitation, so you can see how being off just slightly can have a big impact on your snow forecast. The same applies to the coming situation. It’s going to be a cold storm with fluff factor and ocean enhancement involved again, but I will do my best to try to get this as accurate as possible. The low pressure wave, larger and stronger than the first, is still going to be a very progressive system so it will be basically about a 12 to 15 hour event starting Saturday morning with the first flakes arriving on Cape Cod via ocean effect snow showers, then the storm’s snow shield spreading north northwestward across the region during the morning and midday before pulling away from west to east during the late evening hours. Ocean effect snow showers may linger on Cape Cod until about dawn on Sunday. The snowfall forecast numbers will be posted below in the details forecast and will be higher than on the previous forecast, but the greatest amounts are still expected over Cape Cod and the South Shore of MA. Once the system pulls away, Sunday will be a day featuring sun and passing clouds. By afternoon and into the evening, some isolated to scattered snow showers are possible as a disturbance and cold front move through from northwest to southeast. This will introduce the coldest air of the stretch for Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. With a fresh snowcover, it may get especially cold in some areas Monday night and early Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, moderation will be noted. On to an updated detailed forecast…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-23. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow develops on Cape Cod early. Snow develops elsewhere during the morning and midday from southeast to northwest. Heaviest snow is likely from the South Shore just south of Boston through Cape Cod and the Islands during the afternoon. Highs 22-27 except 27-32 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH early but increasing to 10-25 MPH inland and 15-35 MPH and gusty coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow gradually ending from west to east then some breaking clouds toward dawn but continued ocean-effect snow showers Cape Cod. Snow accumulations 1-3 inches from Lowell to Worcester to Hartford northwestward, 3-6 inches from Newburyport southwestward to northeastern CT including the upper portion of the I-495 belt, 6-10 inches Cape Ann to Boston to Foxboro to much of RI except possibly heavier outer Cape Ann, 10-18 inches over all of Southeastern MA with localized heavier amounts possible portions of the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod. Lows 15-23. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Early morning snow showers likelyCape Cod. Isolated to scattered snow showers anywhere afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5 interior areas, 5-12 coastal areas. Highs 18-25.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8 interior, 8-15 coast. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Much milder with a few episodes of rain showers January 11-13. Colder, dry January 14. Next threat of precipitation January 15 may include snow but too far away to be certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
Fairly mild pattern with a couple precipitation events possible, rain favored over snow.

262 thoughts on “Friday Evening Update”

  2. Thanks Tk. I’m resting up . In early today back at it tomorrow till I’m sure Sunday morning .

  3. Thank you TK. Your Numbers “may” still end up low, but I understand your
    style and it is a good one.

    Very much in line with SAK. 😀

    1. 🙂 🙂

      It’s camp bust if one sets their expectations into the high end amounts. It’s camp reality perhaps and would still be a good hit.

    1. Possibly. Snowy afternoon and evening tomorrow. Whether it’s 5, 10 or 18, it will have an impact. 🙂 🙂

  9. I really like this snow event, because it’s not a direct case of a low crossing the benchmark and hitting the area full throttle with its precip shield.

    It’s the turning of the wind at a certain level of the column off of the moist Atlantic and throwing that into fairly cold air. It’s trying to determine when that faucet turns on, when it turns off and figuring out how far north and west into the interior its effects go.

  11. So is Natick in the 3-6 or 6-10? Maybe rethinking my drive to Providence for the PC/Creighton hoops game…

  12. Thanks TK. I think foxboro will be included in that 10-18 amount. I’m thinking a foot for Foxboro. Some places to the south and east in the ocean enhanced snow zones could see close to 2 feet.

    1. There is certainly room for the higher totals. If they are in the right place with respect to ocean enhancement and the bands happen to sit over any given location that will really do it. Ocean-effect and very cold air is the recipe for big snow even without excessive moisture.

  14. Already called in for 9am till sometime Sunday . I think this area down here where myself , Tom and Sue reside are about to get a very large amount of snow ( good thing it’s fluffy ). Going to be a long ———— Weekend .

    1. Be safe

      I believe we have others who clear the roads in here and also who read. Thank you is never enough. Please be safe …..you keep us safe

      1. Thanks Vicki that’s very nice . I will make excellent money as it’s all overtime but I will bust my ass and earn every single penny with this one just like many others all around the state will do .

  16. Only thing I think could go wrong is that I work 7-4 on Saturday and Sunday and they could pull out the card on me and say I have to stay

  17. Funny I came on here to check for any updates and clicked the wrong link. Got this forecast and was excited for a moment ha:

    “TODAY: Sunshine but filtered to dimmed for a while later morning through early afternoon by a period of high & middle clouds. Hot but not that humid. Highs from the middle 80s Cape Cod and Islands to upper 80s and lower 90s most places, a few middle 90s interior areas mostly north of the Mass Pike. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.”

  22. If this west trend continues with the 0z models runs you may see that and I think areas in CT that are not under an advisory or warning will be placed under an advisory.

  24. I’ve been sick this entire week and haven’t kept up, so this storm is taking me by surprise! Yesterday I thought we would only see a coating north of Boston, but apparently now it’s more like 3-6″ with even higher totals possible! Just hoping the family snowblower works better than it did during our first 4″ snow, it was sputtering the entire time.

    1. Oh dear. Is it that nasty cold virus thing? Everyone in my family has had it. And it is awful. I have been ducking germs. Feel better.

  25. I have to say this blog is great! It was a lot of fun reading all the comments today and tonight should be very exciting tomorrow.

    1. Tj. It truly is. You can feel the excitement …literally. I was just singing its praises to a new friend from Sutton.

  26. Waiting to see what tune those 0z runs have to say. First up NAM which will start rolling around 8:45pm.

      1. Vicki I posted an article meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan wrote below. He is thinking the totals may have to be bumped up again. Its a good article to read why this is case from a storm that is offshore.

    1. JJ. That is an awesome expkanation. Much like Eric’s in 4. Even I can understand but also learned a lot. And it was 20:1 in outside of Hartford this am? Impressive. Thanks for sharing that

  30. A couple thoughts as of now…

    I’m not convinced of the continued westward shift. If all 00z guidance shows it, then I’ll consider it.

    I think we know can clearly see that there will be no true norlun trough with this. I explained (probably poorly) the other day that the feature being forecast by the models was a key to knowing the storm was not going to pass harmlessly out to sea. A better explanation would have been that the models were picking up on a baroclinic zone (kind of a front of sorts) that means a slight sharpening of the flow and a westward displacement of the storm track, along with slightly more rapid strengthening. All of these combine to enhance snow totals from what they may have been. As for the zone itself, it will act somewhat like a norlun in focusing some lift for snow, which will then be enhanced by the ocean as it heads into the South Shore and Cape Cod just ahead of the main precipitation shield form the developing low pressure area. This zone will also pave the way for what will be a coastal front of sorts that will help to enhance snowfall especially in southeastern MA.

          1. Ok thanks. Guess I have to roof rake. Think it will all melt by the end of next week? I see the temps seem warmer for a few days.

            1. I’d still lean to the 5 versus 7, but that won’t make a huge difference. Very light and low water content snow.

              And yes the temp will be cold through Tuesday morning, crack freezing Tuesday daytime, then shoot to near 50 Wednesday, followed by 40s Thursday and Friday.

        1. It’s no joke. I never liked this storm path…no scientific reason. For some reason I see it not coming together as it shows.

    1. went to Sandbridge VA this past summer. Yeah, they’re gonna get it. The far northern extent sabal and pindo palms they have there aren’t going to be very comfy.

  34. Regardless of the storm track, we’re going to be fighting some dry air at the onset tomorrow, as is often the case in cold storms. Dew points are quite low and there’s a good deal of low level dry air. The northern flank of the precip shield will be eaten away at, at least at first. HRRR picking up on this, as it just starts to come into range. 0z NAM to a lesser extent as well, which as Ace said has now leveled out. Still wouldn’t be shocked at a late bend east on the track, but the current projected track is well west of anything I would’ve expected yesterday. I still think Boston won’t get more than 5-6″ unless the ocean enhancement really cranks.

    1. A lot of folks fall into the trap that the latest guidance is always the most accurate. That is often the case, but not always the case. One must be very cautions in biting too quickly, because it could be spoiled. 😛

    2. I think the NWS explained things very well above. Even with an offshore track the environment especially through the snow growth region is really good. Watch that coastal front and where is sets up. High ratios will also be instrumental to getting Boston into the the heavy stuff.

      1. They did a decent job with their explanation, but man I wish you had been able to read Drag’s discussions. They were the ultimate.

          1. He was definitely no hype but did he explain EVERYTHING.

            We used to refer to it as “the bible” sometimes. Somewhere I have to have an old Walter Drag discussion saved that I can toss up on the blog. I’ll search around soon.

  38. Just watched Eric Fisher’s evening weathercast and was surprised to see that he’s putting the city of Boston in the 8-14″ range.
    Too high?

    1. If he has them near the western edge it makes more sense. Haven’t seen the updated map.

      1. Don’t tell old salty that lol . He thinks he’s getting hit as hard as here in the country .

  41. I’m crossing over to WeatherWiz’s side of the town for a few hours. I’ll be checking in via mobile from near the summit of Zion Hill, just below the cable towers. 😉

    4. That new development is going in soon. I almost bought a place literally right in the back of Zion Hill.

  42. I think it will be interesting to see what the melted precip amounts have totaled by later tomorrow evening in southern New England.

    Logan maybe around .3 – .4 ?

    Plymouth .5 – .6 ?

  45. The ob for Marshfield is the airport, which is in the extreme eastern part of town and very, very, very close to the ocean.

    They can verify for blizzard conditions over 3 hrs due to just that extra amount of wind they see from being so close to the ocean. And yet, I’d be willing to bet 2 or 3 miles further west in Marshfield, I could see that part of town not truly seeing blizzard conditions.

    There’s been a time or 2 in my 15 years here where the airport ob met blizzard criteria and I’ve been surprised based on the weather I was seeing.

    1. Want to trade ? We’ll leave our nice friendly dog too 🙂 🙂

      She’s originally from Arkansas. I don’t think she cares for the snow. Out for 2 minutes today, then back in. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Mix of hound and lab. So funny and cute when she sees a squirrel. Best not to be holding the leash at that point. 🙂

          1. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            And my wife just did a major food shopping run yesterday, you are all set. 🙂

            1. Loving this. Daughter just said I cannot wake grand up to head down there. Always a fly in the ointment

  47. I think I like the 00z GFS’ lack of snow in coastal NH and coastal Maine and also it’s slight shift in increasing amounts a bit in eastern and central CT and Long Island. I think that overlaps better with where the location of the NE 850 mb wind will be focused or in the case of coastal NH and Maine, won’t be.

  53. My new Boston total is: 12.4 inches and that “may” be low.

    I know, for some the consensus is around 8 inches. Not buying that.

    We’ll know in 24 hours. 😀

    1. 50-75, which is a very small error on the scale we forecast.

      And people think this is easy to do. 😉

      1. So true isn’t it. And if this were a rain storm it wouldn’t even matter. No difference between 1″ or 1.5″ of rain.

  60. Will at the end if this is the storm that delivers widespread double digit snowfall amounts. One of my weather predictions for 2017 was one widespread double digit snowfall event before the winter was over.

  61. Holding steady with my forecast from yesterday for the most part.

    1-3″ for S NH/Seacoast
    2-5″ for Merrimack Valley
    3-6″ Metro West
    4-8″ North Shore/Boston/Providence
    6-12″ South Shore/Cape with some heavier amounts near the coast.

  62. I wonder if they are going to allow skiing on the province lands sand dunes, They allow skiing in the winter if they get enough snow. Heard about this a few years ago.

  63. https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/
    Northern CT up into western and central mass and areas west of i95 and 128 expecting the lower end of the ranges to vertify with a chance of the higher ends in those areas. mean time for areas south of the pike thinking near 1 1/2 feet or more is possible in parts of Plymouth country and western cape cod around the canal

  64. First question of the day is something I brought up last night: how much of the precip shield will the dry air eat? The earlier the onset of steady snow, the better for more snow. Later onset will mean dry air a little more stout than expected. At the same time, we can also start looking for clues on ocean enhancement, which we’re already starting to see a little of. Then it just comes down to the track of the precip shield.

    I agree well with SAK’s numbers. While I’ve likely been too low on my numbers all along, I see reasons from the short range guidance and observational data to support my idea that the higher totals forecast by some will not verify. Major snowstorm for the Cape and Southeast MA. Higher end moderate event Boston to Providence. More of a nuisance as you approach Worcester. But now we have to wait and see; it’ll be a fun tracking day either way! I’m also very curious to see what kind of ratios we get.

  65. 514 AM EST Update-
    Forecast totals… We are forecasting 15 to 20 inches of snow in
    Plymouth and Barnstable Counties. Cape Ann and the greater Boston
    and Providence Metro areas are forecast to receive 8 to 12 inches,
    but again much higher on Boston`s south shore. From Willimantic,
    CT northeastward through southern Worcester County and on into the
    Chelmsford and Lowell areas, we are expecting 6 to 8 inches and
    have upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm
    Warning. Farther to the west, we have expanded Winter Weather
    Advisories to include all of our forecast area. The Hartford and
    Springfield Metro areas are forecast to have 3 to 6 inches, with
    only 2 to 4 inches closer to the Berkshires.

    2. Been curious if amounts will lessen…some show that but not huge drops like I hoped. I am curious about any dry air effect.

  72. Here’s this morning’s sounding out of Chatham for those who are familiar with the product. You can see that it’s heading for the classic snow profile with a very deep saturated layer setting up. However, there’s still some dry air in the low levels which will be even more of a factor to the northwest. Barry mentioned a potential delayed onset in his broadcast this morning. It’s so great to see him still doing weather broadcasts.

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt.cgi?id=KCHH&pl=skewt&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640×480&pg=web

  73. Interesting, almost every model has backed off a ton, but the effects are only seen in southeastern areas. If that model solution was correct, northern sections would see more than expected.

  75. There’s a big area of snow NE of NYC, or is there? Accuweather radar doesn’t show it and says it’s not currently snowing in New Haven. Weather channel has no snow on radar, but says it is snowing in New Haven.

    1. If it is actually snowing, could be a sign the track is W. HRRR didn’t show any snow in CT until the afternoon.

    2. big radar hole around nyc radar and it envelops new haven. still don’t know if it is snowing there. official obs at 7:53 says overcast, 21 dp 6 not snowing

      1. That big radar hole is such a classic radar trick. Only reason it exists is that it’s the area closest to the radar. Radar beam gets higher further out and hits precip particles that are nowhere near hitting the ground. Those same particles are in the hole area as well, radar just doesn’t see them. You have to go pretty far down into Jersey to see steady snow right now.

    1. Not yet.

      I see broken lower level clouds below the higher level cloudiness that is slowly moving due west.

  77. Nothing in pembroke old salty . Heading into the city now I’ll give updates when I can.

  79. No observing sites in MA, RI, or CT are currently reporting snow. It’ll be awhile yet for most.

    2. for synoptic, yes. I am hoping we get some ocean stuff going sooner near the coast.

      also re: synoptic
      once the column begins to saturate, the snow could just descend upon most
      of the area from above. sort of just filling in as they say. we shall see how it plays out.

  81. on my way into Boston you see the pattern in the clouds. Honestly looks. like the lower clouds are from the ocean and the some what higher clouds are from the actual storm coming in from the south

  82. HRRR keeps painting a bullseye from Boston’s SW neighborhoods S and SSW down to about Fall River. Interesting.

      2. sorry snow was not complete. High totals near 20 inches and near a foot for boston proper. 😀

  83. Good morning. Did you kids stay up all night? Took me about 15 minutes to catch up fun reading

    Nothing in Sutton but if I am reading radar correctly it is above us.

  84. JPDave I am not seeing any snow yet. The sky has the look like it wants to snow any minute.
    Our CBS affiliate here in CT named the storm this morning and the name is Breanna. They only name storms if 6 or more inches of snow will happen across the state or 1/4 or greater amount of ice.
    My prediction for Boston 8.3 inches.

  85. Just surveyed the sky.
    Solid cloud deck roaring in from the ocean. Wind really picking up.
    SNOW sky. Looks like the snow can be seen up there. Just by looking outside, it
    looks like snow is imminent.

    We shall see how long it takes.

  87. I’m reading some comments above about writing this system a few days ago, etc ….

    In my opinion ……

    The coastal low itself isn’t what is really going to get us at all. What’s happening down in Norfolk, VA isn’t coming this way. That, I offer is a complete miss. So, I believe 48 hrs ago, the models were doing a decent job reading into that and offering somewhat lower amounts, further southeast into New England.

    As described by TK, SAK and Taunton’s morning discussion, is its own smaller scale feature that is getting some help in developing due to the coastal system passing so far southeast of us. It’s something that the models have honed in on in the last 48 hrs. Yes, the GFS was picking it up earlier as an extreme eastern mass band of lingering snow, when it’s going to end up being quite an 850mb moisture inflow into parts of southern New England.

    I just feel as though it was going to be difficult for anyone to truly see this feature as it will unfold much more than a few days in advance. I also don’t agree in this particular case, with this idea that it’s this 50 mile western jog that’s caused the increase. Even with the western jog, that storm track is still decently SE of the benchmark.

    1. As I always state, you have an insane understanding of what goes on for someone with no meteorology degree.

      The smaller scale features play a role many times and this is no exception. It’s knowing which features, and how they will play into it.

      1. Many thanks TK ! It’s because of being here, learning from you and from all the bloggers that post so much crucial information and have so many helpful insights. That’s why I love this blog ! It truly is its own meteorology program.

    2. Tom, I totally agree with you. And this morning’s NWS write describes it pretty
      well. You and I discussed this much yesterday.

      I remember a storm in the late 60’s some time. The center passed well
      to the SouthEast, but we still got 8 inches of snow from the local small scale
      set up. Similar but NOT as potent as this potential set up.

      I have been watching the HRRR, surface, radar and snow. The bulk of the synoptic snow appears to slide South of here, however, a nice plume of snow
      extends North and Northwestward to cover all of Southeastern MA, southern
      Ri and extends up to Boston, but not much farther.

      See HRRR snow map above.

      Should be interesting. Wind is really picking up here. I expect some action
      soon.

      How’s the wind down there?

      1. I extra enjoyed that conversation yesterday JpDave !

        It’s breezy here, with an occasional gust thrown in for good measure.

    3. I agree with TK. Added to your knowledge of meteorology, is your ability to explain in a manner easy to understand by those with knowledge and those…me…without knowledge. While meteorology may have been a thought, the teaching profession would have sorely missed someone with your ability.

      Thanks, Tom.

      I also have been thinking that just following this blog is a testament to how very difficult it is to predict.

  89. Has the look and feel of snow here. Unlike closer to coast, wind is calm. Flag across street not moving. It is 20 with an 11 DP. Dry air for sure

    1. “Snow sky” was the term I used with my fellow weather-enthusiasts from way back when. I still use it. 🙂

  95. 12Z NAM is MORE ROBUST once again. This thing has been evolving like crazy.
    Yes, no, no, yes, yes, no, maybe, no , yea more, lesss, more, less, no, yes and now
    MORE!

    1. Fairly typical. It depends on what it keys on and runs with.

      That’s why I don’t adjust much run to run and only make gradual adjustments.

  96. Tom I wasn’t alluding that we knew this would happen but I actually believe storm center will pass very close to benchmark and yes I do agree that this type of system is not conventional in its set up.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Yes, it is true that I did see your comment, but I think that just caused a release of what I’ve been hearing overall in the met blog world and a bit on TV that I had a strong feeling about.

      Hoping things go positively in Maine and am thinking positive thoughts for your mother in law.

  100. 12Z NAM snow (Kuchera)

    http://imgur.com/a/tbOTx

    Logan 12.7
    JP 15.15
    attelboro 17.6
    weymouth 16.4
    worcester 8.9

    Areas are approximate as I have to place the mouse on the map.

    Note: 4km NAM does not “appear” to be as robust. Still running.

      1. I could see a RAPID fill in of echoes along the MA SOuth Shore,
        including Marshfield. It “looked” like it could be ocean, but
        very difficult to tell on the radar loop. Sometimes you can really tell.

  102. Don’t like this: Dew Point just dropped to 9 here. Temp 24
    LONG ways to go to saturate the column here.

  103. Actually the initial ocean-effect snow is not materializing as modeled. It’s slower.

      1. It’s really only for the South Shore and Cape. Boston doesn’t figure in it. They’ll still get plenty of it later.

  104. Thanks Vicki. This was my mom’s Christmas gift tickets to the Opera and they spent an overnight there in NYC.

      1. Makes sense. I will be heading out soon. May not be here to confirm, unless it is really in the 1st 1/2 of window. 😀

  109. Coming in pulses. First was a few flurries, then a quick break, then a bit more. This pulse is featuring light snow, visibility down to a couple miles and there’s a feather dusting.

  110. Boston harbor buoy (16 NM out)

    Wind : 030. ….. Temp up a bit to 30.6F

    Logan : northerly wind, temp 23F

    All the Cape obs have a NE wind. Temps near 32F, dewpoints in the upper 20s to near 30F

    Surface coastal front starting to set up.

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