Saturday Forecast

422 Comments

9:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)
Only minor tweaks to the last update to snowfall amounts, otherwise everything looks about the same as the previous discussion from yesterday afternoon regarding this fairly high impact storm (especially for southeastern MA) today. A quick timeline for snow, which is already falling along the South Coast and the first flakes reaching the South Shore, takes the snow into Boston by late morning then expands it rapidly north and west through the region by midday and through the afternoon. An ending will progress west to east mid to late evening, with Worcester area being out of the snow by around 10PM and Boston by midnight. Snow showers will linger on Cape Cod overnight. Blizzard conditions are likely along the South Shore and across Cape Cod. It’s important to remember that even though these conditions in this storm are predicted for where the heaviest snow totals will be, blizzard conditions are not determined by a snow amount, but rather 3 or more consecutive hours of very low visibility produced by sustained or frequently gusting wind of 35 MPH or greater. The snowfall forecast numbers will be posted below in the detailed forecast and will be similar to those on the previous forecast, but the greatest amounts are still expected over Cape Cod and the South Shore of MA. Once the system pulls away, Sunday will be a day featuring sun and passing clouds. By afternoon and into the evening, some isolated to scattered snow showers are possible as a disturbance and cold front move through from northwest to southeast. This will introduce the coldest air of the stretch for Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. With a fresh snowcover, it may get especially cold in some areas Monday night and early Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, moderation will be noted. By Wednesday, the next low pressure area moving in from the west will send its center northwest of New England, putting this area on the warm side with the threat of rain showers and temperatures quite mild in comparison to the next few days. On to an updated detailed forecast…
TODAY: Snow spreads from southeast to northwest morning through midday and continues through the afternoon, heaviest over southeastern MA. Blowing snow with blizzard conditions at times Plymouth County of MA through Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs 18-23 southwestern NH and central MA, 22-27 elsewhere 27-32 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH early but increasing to 10-25 MPH inland and 15-35 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially south of Boston from the South Shore through Cape Cod and the Islands.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow gradually ending from west to east then some breaking clouds toward dawn but continued snow showers Cape Cod. Snow accumulations 2-5 inches from Lowell to Worcester to Hartford northwestward including southern NH except the immediate coast, 5-9 inches from Newburyport including the immediate NH Seacoast southwestward to northeastern CT including the upper portion of the I-495 belt, 8-12 inches Cape Ann to Boston to Foxboro to much of RI except possibly heavier outer Cape Ann, 10-18 inches over all of Southeastern MA with localized heavier amounts possible portions of the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod. Lows 15-23. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Early morning snow showers possible Cape Cod. Isolated to scattered snow showers anywhere afternoon. Highs 20-28. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late day or evening 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5 interior areas, 5-12 coastal areas. Highs 18-25.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8 interior, 8-15 coast. Highs 33-40.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rise early morning into 40s. Highs 47-54.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)
Mild with episodic rain showers January 12-13. January 14 may turn very mild briefly before it cools down for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)
Fairly mild pattern still expected with a couple precipitation events possible, rain favored over snow.

422 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  8. Thanks everyone. Keep the reports coming during the day if you can!

    Pretty solidly clear now the big event is South Shore to Cape Cod in terms of both wind and snow. Everywhere else it snows. And everywhere it’s cold. Pretty much a no-brainer. We’ll see how the amounts evolve against the forecast amounts.

    Important to keep in mind the difference of just a few hundreths of an inch of melted will make a noticeable difference in snowfall, though it will be hard to measure that snow in the hardest-hit areas due to drifting.

  9. Thanks TK. your snow number seem most reasonable.

    Thanks for keeping us all well informed!

    GO SNOW!!!

    I am heading out now. No snow here just yet. 😀

  11. TK hate to ask but when do you think we will see build up snow in Woburn? I will be out until 1pm or so and don’t want to have to garage the car with snow on it. First world problems right? Ha.

    1. First flakes should fly here between 11 and noon. Ground covered but with only a coating by 1PM. So you should generally be OK but you may have to brush it just before you put it in there.

  14. looking at radar range looks a bit larger and west…. on a phone so not sure if im just misstaking or if a good portion is not hitting the ground

    1. I have a 2 car garage that no car has been inside for years. It’s too full of other stuff. That changes in 2017. 😛

      1. Kids put their car in garage. Mine stays out. I did out mine in last night but had to move junk.

        WeatherWiz thanks for that link

  17. Steady light snow. Visibility somewhere between 3/4 and 1 mile.

    Roads completely covered, decent coating.

  19. 3km NAM … decent.
    HRRR last few runs … decent.

    I’m going to make a fun guess for Logan: 9.1 inches.

    2. To think this was OTS a few days ago. Well I am a stubborn Irish guy so I am sticking to my bust haha. Green grass tomorrow in Woburn!

      1. Well, it was never OTS. It was only forecast to be OTS by model guidance which some of us warned you all not to believe. 😉

  24. My cousin in Lynchburg, Virginia just posted a picture of her back deck and looked like 6-7 inches there and still snowing.

        1. Absolutely ….. This is ramping up quick and with it so cold, the accumulations will build quickly in the next few hours.

          How far n and w will that heavy snow area progress to before settling into place for the afternoon/evening ?

  32. Its a steady light now where I am now. With the cold temps in place this should have no problem accumulating.

  37. In line ar whole foods. What a zoo. You would think the world was about to end.
    Looking out the window, it is snowing hard. Vis down to about 1/2 mile !!#

  40. Still in Fall River. Just puking snow at this point. Probably leaving here to drive back to the Valley around noon. Hopefully the roads won’t be too awful.

  41. Safe travels Blackstone.
    12z GFS 12z NAM and latest HRR bullish on the snowfall amounts across SNE.

  42. Very light coating on driveways, walks, cars. Light to moderate snow. So hard for me to classify because flakes are very fine

  43. RGEM amounts look fairly decent too. Adjust for the ratio of course. The ocean-enhancement is very easily seen on this forecast.

  44. Been snowing in here in Hingham since 10am. Right now snow is falling moderately with somewhere between and half inch to an inch on the ground.

  45. Interesting …..

    Harbor buoy wind now at 050 !! I didn’t think it would veer that much. I thought it would stay in the 020 to 040 range.

    Even a bit more perpendicular to the coastline. Perhaps the effects would be to push the coastal front a bit further west and it just increases the fetch (longer distance of water the wind can blow over) which might add even more available moisture to the lower atmosphere.

        1. Yes, you? TK scares me with his talk about more rain late spring and summer. I was getting used to the dryness,

          1. Yeah been good…as you said it was a dry summer. My big PITA now are the two window wells I have out back. Never understood why builders put windows in below grade… nothing good comes from that…ever.

  50. Philadelphia coming in with way more snow than modeled. Says a lot about the western extent of the storm.

  53. I am liking this tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan for my area.
    Snowfall totals will need to go up soon for western parts of CT. Preliminary thinking is 4-8″ at least back to Rt 8 if not more

        1. Here’s hoping for Augusta too !

          They updated at 10:30 and then I just checked and updated yet again. Both times, the 6-8 got taken further and further west. Also, Advisories and warnings have been upgraded and or hoisted further west.

  57. been snowing since 9:30am in East Bridgewater, about 3/4 of an inch so far.
    Intensity has picked up. Moderate snow.
    Our road treatments are not keeping up with the rate of snowfall. Roads are slippery.

    1. Thanks for the report. Important to note that it does not even take much snow on an untreated road to make it slippery so conditions go downhill very quickly even right after snow begins.

      1. I a seeing that where I am…in a parking lot facing a street. It’s covered and then some already.

      1. Indeed ! I kept commenting yesterday that I thought it was silly to have a 1-3 inch area out by Springfield . How wrong that will be.

  60. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to report a visibility fluctuating between 1/8 and 1/4 of a mile.

    Seeing 1 to perhaps a 2 inch per hour rate of snowfall.

    1. Hmmm, not here Tom. I was just about to post a question regarding the snowfall rates and if they’re expected to rise. It’s snowing but nothing past moderate. According to the radar echos it should be snowing harder here. It will accumulate at this rate but slowly. Definite ocean enhancement to the snow down your way.

      1. Perhaps I’m not losing as much to evaporation ??

        I’d bet being so close to the water, our temp and dp are nearly identical and so we are realizing every flake that’s falling from the clouds. Whereas, inland, even where it’s snowing, the obs do show lower RH’s with some spread in the temp and dp. Perhaps ?????

            1. Temp 19 DP up to 15. RH 85.

              Visibility down. But not accumulating very fast. About 1/4-1/2 inch in 2 hours

    1. Perhaps an even heavier band trying to develop from west of Providence to just west of Boston to the north shore.

  63. The western edge is farther back as now just over the CT boarder in parts of Westchester County they are now under winter weather advisories where they had nothing earlier.

  64. Back home. Roads are already BAD.

    I could NOT get out of Legacy Place. Unbelievable!!!

    I could not get into Roche Bros. In W. Roxbury, my next stop.

    Intensity just picked up a notch here. Solid Moderate/borderline heavy. Bigger flakes mixing in. Vis about 3/8 mile in very nice snow.

      1. Afraid so. We were out at a dinner party last night
        and couldn’t get to the stores last night.

        Oh well, I got what I needed to get through the weekend. 😀

      2. did the same, had to go to Whole Foods and then Stop and Shop… a zoo out there… did see one fender bender on my street corner as well… conditions deteriorated very quickly.
        Tom

  66. There was a two-car accident with a light pole knocked down on my street. No one hurt from what I can tell.

    1. I don’t know if you saw earlier, the wind direction at the harbor buoy is 050. Logan at northerly. Great convergence !!!!!! And that’s getting ridden over at 850 with ocean moisture.

  68. Happy to see that I was very wrong in my prediction. I did think the Cape and Islands would fare well with this storm, but I did not think Boston would get a lot of snow. Looks like we will get a healthy dose of snow.

      1. 10 inches would be a nice-sized storm. The ocean enhancement’s going to make amounts go up rapidly on the South Shore and the Cape, I think. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Outer Cape get several more inches of snow tomorrow from ocean-effect snows.

  69. It amazes me how many people rush to grocery stores when your only going to be in for the rest of today. By tomorrow your going to be able to move around.
    21 years ago today a much larger snowstorm was affecting us the blizzard of 96.

  70. Hey Tom, I bet your students would have loved for this event delayed another 24 hours…if you know what I mean since you are likely to be in one of the jackpot zones.

    Although I imagine most school kids in eastern sections are thinking the same! 🙂

    Of course when I was a kid, any day with snow was fine with me. 😀

    1. Absolutely !! They were saying as much yesterday 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I fealt the same way as a kid, but not anymore as a teacher. I love my job, but want no snow days so we can be done June 13th. 🙂

  73. NWS might want to be careful about the western edge which may vanish more quickly than they think later on…

  76. Glad to be getting a good snow storm. Just have to pick my daughter up at work during the height of the storm. Oh well. Be safe and enjoy.

  80. Very fine snowflakes. I think that’s why it doesn’t look like it’s snowing that hard. I thought one of the discussions yesterday was the setup would promote larger dendrites. Doesn’t seem to be the case, away from the coast anyways.

  81. Approaching 2″ as we approach 1 pm here in Taunton. Light snow now.

    It was a state record -35 degrees here in the Silver City 113 years ago this week on January 5, 1904, so 2″ of snow isn’t so bad.

    I was a trouble maker (as usual) at bus duty yesterday wishing the students a nice weekend and announcing that there were no classes scheduled for today.

    School ends on a Friday, June 16 this year, so NO SNOW DAYS!!!

    Thank you, TK…Stay safe everyone!

  84. Moderate to heavy snow here in Sudbury w/a few large snowflakes. Everything covered. Welcome winter! And if anyone’s out on the road – be safe!

  85. Snowing at a good clip here in Hingham. Vis is somewhere a little above a 1/4 mile. Flakes are starting getting a little bigger. Somewhere between 2 and 3 inches (maybe closer to 3) on the ground. Still no real wind to speak of.

    1. Wind is still a couple hours away. What’s going to happen is once that thing intensifies rapidly you’ll see the wind appear basically, and the western extent of the snow shield will start to evaporate.

        1. Yep. I also think the NWS jumped the gun on going with bigger totals as far west as they did.

    1. Now that made me really smile. Today is my moms angel day. It brings back memories of not only skiing with my dad but knowing she was sitting in the line of Windows at the base house at Cranmore watching us as we took our runs

      Thank you

  87. Two people in this area posted the lines at Market 32 in Sutton. Multiple lines between 13-20 deep. It is a normal shopping day for a lot of people who work. She said they were saying 1-3 in this area up until the last day-ish so no one worried about long lines

    Still…..it’ll be clear tomorrow. But then as I type that I realize that all of the people who normally shop today would go tomorrow plus tomorrow’s crowd. Glad I went Thursday.

      1. I thought that last time at hannaford and couldn’t find a parking place. But then there are not many places around here

        1. The report there was that early THIS morning it was a complete zoo. Snow + football (even if it’s not the Pats) will do that.

          1. I don’t get it by 9am tomorrow everything will be cleaned up. Not sure where the “trapped in my house for a week” mentatility came from ha.

            1. That’s why mom and I are keeping the usual schedule. I’ll shovel a pathway for her to get to my dad’s grave in the morning.

              1. Now that is nice. I would love to say I have a schedule. I used to. I don’t know where it went. I don’t know how to find it again.

                And why anyone would go shopping on a day that lets you wear PJs all day without making an excuse for it is beyond me

    1. You should have conceded on Thursday when we told you this thing was coming up. 😉

      1. Well in the slim chance I was right I would have been called a genius ha. It was a risk that beat me.

    2. So now we know the secret. I just have to keep joining camp bust and we will get a storm. Now if JPDave joins, it’ll be the storm of the century…..again 😉

  89. https://merrimackvalleyweather.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/untitled13.png
    Not changing my thoughts, Basically those east of I95 has best chance of seeing 10+ With up to near 2 feet in portions of the south shore, cape and Islands.
    Snow map left. road conditions middle. Deep red level 5 road conditions ( do not drive if your in this area) Orange level 4. try to avoid travel 3/4 yellow ( this shifts a bit further north in CT to include most of the mass pike to spring field mass.
    Map to the right. areas East of the red line best chance of seeing blizzard criteria conditions.

  90. https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/

    Maybe I’m seeing things, but I’ll throw this out there.

    I wonder if the 2 precip motions and related atmospheric causes can be seen.

    The easy one to see is the southwest to northeast movement of the echoes.

    I think though if you look just southwest of Boston, you can see some echoes being enhanced and they are moving northeast to southwest.

    Of course, I have been wearing glasses since I was 10, so …… 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. You can often see the 2 motions (from synoptic scale system snow and from ocean-effect). The best radar to see this is the enhanced precip. mode on the radarscope app. 🙂

  91. 2″+ on the ground in Coventry, CT and snowing hard. 16 degrees and it’s complete fluff. Wondering if we have an outside shot at 10″ even this far west if we can hold onto the western flank of the heavier stuff into this evening. Ratios have got to be approaching 20:1 here

  92. 1.2″ at Logan as of 1PM. Highest totals so far as of the 1:30 NWS report are 4″ in Brewster and Woods Hole.

  95. Compared to 10 minutes ago, it’s gotten dark (relatively speaking).

    Snow for a short while had diminished to light snow with 1 mile visibility, but it just ramped up again and visibility is under 1/2 mile.

    Closing in on 4″.

    1. “The band” finally reached you. Been watching on radar.

      My friend sent me a picture from Constitution Beach on the Cape earlier and the ocean is right behind her, but you cannot see it.

    2. Enjoy it Tom! Wish I was there. Not to sound like I am complaining….we are getting a nice dump here as well. Far more than I expected 48 hours ago.

      1. Will do 🙂 🙂

        I know you’ve seen some intense band of snow in recent winters out your way.

  97. TK Sutton is now in 8-12 according to NWS. I saw you said it was mistake to move line west. I’m wondering if you still think 6ish

    We just had about 1.75 inch in an hour but have been under fairly heavy bands. We are closing in on 3

    1. If you can manage to stay in a couple of the bands, I can see 8 being barely reached. I do think it was a mistake to go 8-12 over such a broad area that far west.

  99. As TK was alluding to, you can already see some shrinkage of the back edge of snow in Berkshire County and extreme NW CT. That said, there is a very sharp cutoff in precip at the back edge….from moderate to heavy snow to virtually nothing in a matter of a few miles across Westchester County

    1. Another key, the back edge of the precipitation in NJ is moving steadily eastward and the low pressure wave is hauling to the NE.

  101. Son just did round one of shoveling. Son in law will be next I assume. You wouldn’t know we have a snowblower in the garage. Guess it is a youth thing.

  103. 2 more signs the north and west edge of the snow may quickly collapse ….

    Harbor buoy wind has backed 20 degrees to 020

    It’s getting colder because the N wind is increasing but that’s also going to start advecting in drier air.

    I can’t imagine the intensity of the snow at the cape cod bridges under those yellow echoes.

  104. 3.5″ of fluff so far at the Storm HQ World Headquarters.

    I made a final tweak to my numbers when I woke up at Noon and looked at the latest guidance:

    1-2″ for Central NH
    2-4″ for Southern NH/Seacoast
    3-6″ for Merrimack Valley
    4-7″ for Metro West/128 Belt
    5-9″ for North Shore/Boston/Providence
    7-14″ for Southeastern Massachusetts/Cape Cod with some heavier amounts near the coast.

    2. I like Boston Sak. As I’ve been saying all along I don’t think it’s a huge amount in Boston not double digit . SS is your jackpot . Picking up some in the city .

  108. Mark it started here with few flakes flying then BAM it came down and very quickly the roads got snow covered. I have not had any wind here so far. I am curious where the band in NJ ends up in SNE. Certainly on radar looks like 1-2 inch snowfall rates.

    1. No question it’s snowing at 1-2″ per hour here now. If we can hold onto this rate the rest of the PM, we will hit 8-10″ easy here.

  109. JJ, the potential for that intense banding at the western flank of the precip shield is exactly what Ryan Hanrahan was talking about yesterday. It seems to be materializing!

  110. With each run I have seeing of the short range models those bigger totals that were projected to be for areas east of I-91 are now right in my area. The losers here in CT are areas northwest part of the state.

          1. That was only because we felt bad for beating them IN Brockton several years earlier. 😉

  113. Impressive band – Westerly to Newport to New Bedford to Plymouth!! Must be snowing 3″ per hour in that band.

  114. I am looking at the band in NJ and the one you mentioned Mark saying I wish that was in my area.
    I am not complaining since a few days ago it looked like my area would get an inch and now looks like I might end up near 5 inches.

  116. Barrow, AK : 26.3F, NW wind at 4 mph. Cloudy.

    They must be happy they don’t have Boston’s weather today.

  117. Continues to absolutely pound snow here. Yes I am back homes.
    I am here to say the roads are horrible! I was slipping and sliding all over the place.
    Our party in Stoughton was postponed until next Saturday. Wise move.

    I measured 3.5 inches here about 1/2 hour ago.

    Temp down to 20 here.

    I am concerned about the high end numbers being realized. Low end we make.

    If the snow does not shut off too early, we “could” still make the high end. We shall see.

    In any case, not too shabby and I’ll happily take it either way. 😀

  118. Heavy Snow here in Hingham. Winds are picking up quickly here too. Vis under a 1/4 mile with a temp of 24. Just measured in 3 places and it looks to be around 5 inches so far.

  120. I just got back from Fall River. Rt 146 in Rhode Island was plowed really well. Crossed back in to Massachusetts and the road was awful. Plows southbound but not north bound. Absolutely hammering snow. Visibility between state line and exit 4 (Lackey Dam if you know the area), was down to about 50-100 yards. Must have been under a band.
    Bout 5 inches so far here, best I can tell. Closing in on 6.

  121. On radarscope, I can see new Heavy bands of snow moving up towards Boston. covering all from worcester to metro west and hopefully into boston.

    1. btw, Tk and Tom mentioned it above, BUT In addition to those I can
      ClEARLY see a band moving in from the ocean. Way cool

      1. I’ll try to post an image. Give me a few. I can get a nice one
        using my Android Studio. loading it up now.

  122. Just measured 4 inches of snow.
    The way this snow is falling I should get at least half of foot and maybe more than the biggest snowfall of 7 inches I had so far back on Dec. 17th.

  123. 4.5″ here in Wrentham as of 3:45. Light and fluffy. It’s all come together! We’ve got ourselves a solid winter storm 🙂

  124. Something else. Just noticed on NEXRAD radar that the back edge that was approaching
    has Now FILLED Back in. Hmmm

    2. Nothing unusual or unexpected going on there. It was fairly well short-range modeled this way.

      The NWS is going to be wrong on their western extension of bigger snow. Not sure how they missed the subsidence that is clearly ongoing. Of course there will be wavering as a moisture plume tries to push into it. The last wide one is doing that right now.

      1. Thanks to you and WeatherWiz for posting that – I would laugh if I wasn’t crying so hard! (And hiding under my bed…)

        1. I think you just made me laugh harder than the video did. Do you have a flashlight and some good books under there? A stash of wine?

  127. Several more hours of 1-2 inches per hour for eastern and southeastern massachusetts. At least another half a foot of snow to come with even more to the south. Dry air will begin to invade the northwest flank of precip as this low wraps up but eastern sections remain well entrenched in heavy snow.

    1. Yes, I do believe Boston will probably make 10, but may struggle to reach 12.
      Depends upon how intense the bands are and how quickly the snow shuts down.

  128. We’re in between bands now so the intensity has let up some. Still snowing good, but NOT like it was. Suspect it will increase in intensity shortly, at least that is what the
    radar shows.

  131. 4.5″ in Coventry, CT and still snowing moderately but not as heavy as before. The dry air is starting to erode the NW flank of precip. I-84 seems to be the demarcation between lighter snow to the NW and moderate to heavy snow to the SE.

  135. Late afternoon NWS Discussion is quite bullish on heavy snow squalls for tomorrow! I get the impression they could be very potent to say the least. Or am I reading too much into it?

    TK, JPD…do you agree as well?

    1. The potential is there for some localized heavy snow showers/squalls. I’ll re-evaluate that this evening. Have been eyeing the risk of snow showers with disturbance and arctic cold front.

  136. Timing of snow? Check.
    Area of heaviest snow southeast? Check.
    A synoptic band somewhere (a.k.a. the wildcard)? Check (it sat over me for a while).
    Ocean enhancement South Shore to Cape Cod? Check.
    Subsidence eating back edge of snow despite repeated attempts of atmosphere to throw it back into the area? Check.
    Snow amounts so far? Pretty much as expected.

    Next thing to see is if the end times are fairly close.

    1. It may waver around, but I think for the most part we’re at peak now and are about to start reversing the movement of everything, eventually seeing an ending from west to east by midnight (except Cape Cod which holds onto snow showers).

  138. Massive Charlie hole over CT coastline including Long Island but more snow right behind in NJ. Is this a radar malfunction or is the snow party about to come to an abrupt end for us (dry air with the munchies)?

    2. The munchies are on the northwest side. The hole is only being seen by Taunton. It’s actually all snow there still.

  139. Just back from 5 days warmer days off the grid.

    6 days ago I said either or snow or a miss. Can’t go wrong with that insight….

    Not quite the same storm here…you can see how light the snow is falling as you look out into my back yard in the image below.

    http://imgur.com/wnD2p7p

  140. Sure looks like the heavier bands are collapsing towards the coast.
    Heaviest snow now East of 495. West of there, only light snow.

    1. As the storm center intensifies, this is how it evolves, and will also serve to increase subsidence to the west.

      1. Hasn’t been too bad…goes from moderate to light but building up for sure. Easy to move tomorrow! Bring on next week ha. Would guess 3-4 inches outside?

        1. I have a bit more here. I sat under the band for a while. I went with 6 to 8 here leaning toward the 6 end. Still another burst to come before things start to simmer down.

  141. TK – Just catching up on the blog. I saw your Walter Drag mention. I sure hope he is somewhere riding his bike!

    Classic Walt email from June 2005 that I just dug up. Pretty sure this sums Walt up. Afffable, dry sense of humor, dedicated to getting it right, and physically pained and mentally stressed when he got it wrong. A great synoptic forecaster and model skeptic.
    Hi John,
    > > > >
    > > > > Good to hear all is well and that you’re getting
    > > > all you
    > > > > wish from the
    > > > > new databases. Not sure we are…
    > > > >
    > > > > I’ll keep an eye out for the drought…
    > > > >
    > > > > as for the products. In my opinion, my skill
    > > > level is
    > > > > diluted to
    > > > > develop all the graphics everyone looks at now…
    > > > too much
    > > > > effort.. not enough time to consider model
    > > > problems and do
    > > > > better forecasting.
    > > > >
    > > > > My forecast from yesterday was an example…
    > > > horrid. Its
    > > > > not me… it
    > > > > lowers my self worth…
    > > > >
    > > > > Basicially I am opposed to the process now,
    > since it
    > > > > causes too many
    > > > > problems internally including skill dilution. We
    > > > just > dont have the
    > > > > time now…
    > > > >
    > > > > However, i do as I am told…
    > > > >
    > > > > Regards,
    > > > > Walt

    1. I wish I had read more of his discussions or too bad he didn’t work now where the NWS discussions are so easily accessible.

      1. You can find Walt’s work at the Mt. Holly NJ NWS page. For many reasons the discussions are not quite as prolific’ as they once were. Still they are among the best currently available.

    2. Excellent. You described Walt perfectly. I hadn’t seen him in several years and he walked into the conference where we happened to meet on the stairway and he immediately addressed me by name. I did not expect him to remember my name. 🙂

  142. Was closing in on 6 when I measures about 20 minutes ago.

    I can’t take even 25-30 mi Utes to make potatoes and it takes about an equal,amount of time to catch up here

      1. I’m not ashamed! :-). But have to say I’m very glad these storms seem to prefer weekends as it’s easier to hide when you don’t have work!

  144. Big plume of heavier snow bulging up from RI and NE CT towards Worcester or “just”
    SE of Worcester wide enough to come to Boston and nearby suburbs. Nice.

    1. Thanks Longshot. I note the reporter in framingham continues to be high…not being there cannot be certain now but is out of whack with surrounding area.

      Also, not sure about northbridge since blackstone and I are seeing more. Will wait to hear what blackstone thinks.

    2. About 7 to 8 inches here right now…will go out in a bit a take some actual measurements. Still snowing heavily. Winds aren’t bad but gusty at times. Vis still less than a 1/4 mile.

  149. The subsidence has made it all the way to the I-495 belt northwest portion! This is when things really concentrate to the jackpot areas with just one lingering batch of moderate to heavy snow from RI to west of Boston before it winds down.

    Glad I decided on an 8PM start time for snow removal. 🙂

      1. 11ish but the last 2 or 3 hours of it may very light, depending on what happens with the final moisture plumes from the south versus the dry air from the west.

  151. Just made it in for the night. Agree with Blackstone, RI roads were not too bad. Crossed into Massachusetts on 95 and went downhill quickly.

  152. Puking snow here. Coastal front on me. I went for a drive earlier and some rods were very bad, not plowed. Snow was just below my knee cap.

      1. Just went to check a few spots here. Not at foot yet here but my estimate from 30 minutes ago was under by a couple of inches as we are just a hair under 10″. As Coastal indicated snowing to beat the band but I think he’s getting hit harder than here in Hingham.

  153. Ok so as a forecaster so far I’m pretty satisfied with how this is working out. We’ll see what the final totals end up against the forecast amounts.

    So let’s briefly look ahead as I’ve taken a few minutes to review 12z stuff beyond what happens through tonight…

    Sunday: Disturbance / arctic cold front may result in some snow showers/squalls in the afternoon.

    Monday: Below zero start some areas. May struggle back to 20 in some locations during the day.

    Pattern returns to mild starting late Tuesday, which will be a turn-around day, very cold start but a mild finish and temps that may rise instead of fall at night.

    Unsettled, and wet at times, Wednesday-Friday. Potential that some areas get way into the 50s and even make a run at 60 Friday and/or Saturday next week.

    Mild regime continues through day 15 after that.

    1. Ahhhh from sledding to cookout weather…….you absolutely have to love New England

      Great Job, TK, on your forecast. As always.

  155. I have a few friends that tell me their snowfall.
    Lowell 3.2 inches
    Arlington 7.6 inches
    Umass boston ( housing area just to west of campus.) 8 inches
    Billerica ( my measurement) 4.3 current conditions light snow.
    At 4pm I measured about 3 inches at Mass general.
    I feel any snow that does fall north of the pike melts away by Wednesday

  156. Haven’t measured but is looks like 3″ or so Worcester area. Spent the day putting new windows in my kitchen remodel. Totally froze my ass off. Froze a bunch of pipes in the gutted room. Arghhhh.

  157. I’m not super impressed here in Boston . Tk when’s it shutting off so I can get out of here . I like my numbers

    1. Final flakes in Boston around midnight. But accumulation should drop off there by 9PM.

  158. My kind of winter. If ya gotta have snow, 50’s a few days later is great.
    Just went out and looked. Closing in on 8″ out here.
    I have to say this im pretty impressed. I didn’t give this much. I thought the trough would not sharpen enough and pull that low in this close. It’s more strung out than what I thought too. I’ll be interested to see the ratio. Like I posted s day or so ago, in SNE 13:1 is pretty close to the 75th percentile. If it’s over that, it’s pretty impressive too. I didn’t think we’d get much more than 3-4 out here. We’ll double the 4 easy. Wouldnt be surprised if I end up at 10″ plus.

  159. Here’s a post I put on FB on Jan 6, 2014 – based on TK’s look ahead to next week I think this is an example of how somethings never change…

    “Today I’m wishing that I didn’t live in a state where I had to change from a T-shirt to a sweater, to a windbreaker, to a raincoat, to a fleece to a wool coat to a down coat all in the same day… just way too labor intensive…”

    1. And here’s another from FB before I found WHW – my weather self help group. Knowledge certainly does mitigate fear! I am case in point.

      From my 2015 Facebook –

      “My snowphobia is in high gear again. If the meteorologists use the words “historic” or “life threatening” one more time I’m going to go hide under my bed. Sammy and Joe can fend for themselves….”

      1. How about “storm threatens millions with up to 20 inches of snow” because there was one tiny spot that had forecast accumulations of up to 20 inches with 99% of the region having much less……

  160. After looking at those melted precip totals, I’m going to make a guess …..

    There is going to be a much higher QPF winter storm in the next 8-10 weeks ….

    So, say Marshfield gets 12 inches on this event, looks like it might only take .5 melted to accomplish that.

    I’m offering that there’ll be an event to come where using Marshfield again, we get less snow, say 8 inches, but it will take .9 or 1 inch melted to accomplish it.

  162. 6.5 on the button here. Blackstones 8 made me go out to see if my measurements were wrong. In my bare feet. My toes are fine but balls of my feet a tad chilly 🙂 🙂 🙂

  163. On radar i see a second batch of heavy snow over long island about to come into Ct wondering how far north it goes or if it slides to the south.

  166. I just took a measurement here in JP and I have to say I am bitterly disappointed!!

    6.5 inches and that is it. PATHETIC.

    It’s still snowing lightly to occasionally moderate. IF we can shake out another 1.5
    inch, we’ll make the low end of the forecast range. 😀 I do NOT believe that happens.

    1. Hmmm just checked radar and all of a sudden bright yellow bands are fast approaching. Perhaps that will be enough to get us at least up to 8 inches.
      One can hope. 😀

  167. Dry air is undercutting the snow now as it’s coming in at the surface even faster. That is making the heavier radar echoes deceiving. Visibility actually went up here when the latest batch got to me.

    I think my 9.1 for Boston may end up being too high.

    1. Me too. We ain’t gonna make it.
      Although it is snowing harder now. Still not like this afternoon, but harder
      than in the last hour or 2.

  169. We had ~6.5-7″ here in Wrentham, but that was about 45 minutes ago. Local variation, but in general most places be towards the lower end of the ranges of most forecasts. So a good forecast and a well behaved event, today at least, but certainly more impactful than most of us would’ve thought a few days ago. No blockbuster though, and after a couple chilly days ahead the January thaw comes and comes big as TK has said. Long duration warm-up.

    1. This event was one that we talked about being potential in the anomalous phase of the pattern, basically when the see-saw tips the other way for a while. It did, and here’s the result.

      1. I meant to post about that. Even if this had been a miss east, many forecasters had been eyeing this period for a good 10 days if not more as at least a snow threat period. Potential was there, and this time we converted it.

        1. And by the way, you nailed it TK. Never wrote it off. I bet you had a hunch it was coming even when the models showed a miss… Better to wait until they at least start to show a little support before you bite fully on the hunch though. Until that happened, the don’t write it off strategy was a great one.

  170. Just saw 5.9 at Logan so far which matches the season total.
    UGH for the weather that is coming as this could be the last snow for a while.

    1. Thanks for posting Jimmy. Hopefully Logan can end up at 6.1 or 6.2″. Still snowing here albeit much lighter now.

  171. We will be back to bare ground at this time next weekend, if not by Wednesday-Thursday with any snow piles restricted to parking lots and those will probably more water than melting snow.

    I believe that I am getting the theme for this winter:

    Quick hitting snows (some small, some mod-heavy) followed by sudden warmth within 1-3 days. In other words, no long term snow coverings.

  172. Despite the longer term milder weather, I wouldn’t say zippo for snow threats. There is a a slight chance we can tip the balance for 1 or 2 days around January 15-16 for possible snow in parts of the region. There will be a strong front in the area and a high that has to cross eastern Canada. If we get a wave coming along… So just keep that time frame in mind. Otherwise looks mild Janaury 11-14 and again after that brief chill-down.

    Longer term shift to cold is still possible very end of January into February but a lot of things need to take place for that.

  173. Highest total I’ve seen so far from the NWS is 12″ in Acushnet.
    Even with the sun and warmer temps, it’ll take a bit to melt this. The sun still has the power of a pen light at this point. If it were mid to late February, it would be gone pretty quick.

      1. Most of it will be gone between Wednesday and Friday, even in the jackpot areas. In general this is a very low water content snow. It starts evaporating right away tomorrow, even moreso Monday. Tuesday it starts melting slowly, then the pace becomes rapid Wednesday on, til it’s gone.

      2. Maybe. I was just thinking of the end of the up coming week. They’ll still be some snow OTG next Saturday in a lot of spots.

  175. Just thought I’d check in from N. CT where I just went outside to check and came in with just 3″ in multiple spots. This is just two miles south of the Somers prison. We lucked out.

  176. Just barely 7 here. Still snow but not seeing a whole lot more than drips and drabs

    TK. Absolutely spot on for here. Kudos

  177. I’m stepping away from the computer for a while to do snow removable. Visibility is up quite a bit here and all we have left in my area is lingering light snow, so the aim is to fire up the new snow blower and between that and a couple shovels have this place done by about 10PM with nothing left to do in the morning.

    I’ll check in via mobile later tonight when I make a stop to Zion on the west side of the city.

    Thanks everyone for great storm chat and all the reports today!

    2. Thanks TK for keeping us updated throughout the day. I will start to remove my snow in the morning.

  178. Just watched Harvey on 5 after the game. He had a report from Sharon at 12.2.” I call huge BS and i think it’s the same spotter that’s always way above surrounding areas and in my backyard. I just measured 8″

    1. That band has intensified again. It’s radar echoes match those in that band earlier today that was over Plymouth.

      1. My walkway is nearly clear of snow due to the wind and yet on the side of our car away from the wind is a 2+ ft drift of snow.

  181. Ace: Agree on that Sharon report, especially given how early it came in. Bogus.

    However, I’m also seeing what Tom is seeing, that last band has real punch, and it’s snowing as hard and probably harder than it has all day in Wrentham.

    2. why those to the south and east of i95 could see much more snowfall through the evening. Areas west of I95 and north of the pike basically done

  182. Despite what radar shows, we’re getting moderate snowfall in Wilmington. Total is somewhere between 5.0-5.5″.

  184. Heaviest axis of snow is being squeezed to the southeaster part of the state. For Boston and the immediate southwest suburbs, another inch is possible before it winds down over the next couple of hours. The southeastern part of the state could see an additional few inches which will include Tom and Coastal before snow winds down finally around midnight for those locales.

  185. Still snowing very lightly in Coventry, CT. About 6″ for the final measurement and 8″ total on the ground. Right in the range of most of the forecasts I had seen, though closer to the lower end of the NWS’ range.

  186. Well, had that done in under an hour. Amazing what a brand new real snow blower will do. No more of that toro snow thrower sh1t. 😛 (pardon my minor curse)

    Actually most of the time I just shoveled the old fashioned way, but I’m loving this new toy.

    Official measurement still to come. But it’s in the neighborhood of 5.5 to 6 inches here.

    2. Is light. Guys were tossing it with the shovel.

      They will need to do a final cleanup in am ….it is still snowing

  187. Still snowing here in North Reading. My guess is 5.5 – 6 inches on the ground. Thought I would get out when TK did, but we have added about 1/2-inch in last two hours. No sense clearing the driveway if I have to do it again in the morning. A real snowblower is the only way to go!

  188. accumulating snow has stopped but for the past hour have had a steady moderate snow coming through but the problem is that the snowflakes are extremely small, might be a bit of upslope snow and low level moisture being trapped in the valley

  190. Still snowing moderately to heavy here in Hingham (wash, rinse and repeat). Around 7pm visibility had gone up to about a mile. Back to around 1/4 at this point. Just took the dog out and measured about 13″ on the average.

  191. Cleanup was easy. Had a light coating since but that will basically sublimate tomorrow.

    WeatherWiz I’m back on the hill right up the road from you.

  192. Ok warm and wet for the week, Next weekend has my attention. With an area of high pressure to the south (warm) and an area of high pressure to the North (cold) with a funnel right over New England.

  198. This morning’s update may be a little closer to 10AM.

    I have a little final cleanup to do outside and will be driving Mom around to her Sunday morning destinations. 🙂

  199. “Official” measurement here of 4.5″ in Holden. We’ll see what today’s squall can squeeze out

    2. Pretty amazing how that played out.

      Boston got into the really good stuff, but only for a short period, thus
      it is reflected in the totals. In order to ramp up those totals, needed to
      be under the strong bands for a longer duration.

      I was out driving during the absolute worst of it for boston, so I got a good
      sample of this storm.

      Not what I expected, but much better than what we’ve been getting. The 0Z and 12Z model runs strongly suggested that it would play out exactly as it did.
      I had a bad feeling yesterday morning. I mean for Boston. South Shore was
      going to do well regardless.

  202. I’m going with 9.6″ for a total in Wrentham. Matches up well with surrounding reports. That final band last evening put the hammer down for awhile, we probably got close to 2″ in an hour. Great snowstorm!

  203. Good morning. Was too tired to clean up last evening. Got up way too early yesterday to monitor the snow. Yawn Yawn yawn.

    Just took measurement and cleaned up. Best I can determine is a total
    of: 7.25 inches

    Right at my initial estimate before I foolishly upped it to 12.4. 😀 😀 😀

  204. gfs parrallel and canadian look interesting for the weekend.. next chance for winter weather next weekend with a high to the south and north battling it out….

    1. I’d say so. It will change 15 times between now and then, but will be fun
      to monitor. TK highlighted that time frame for the next possibility. 😀

  205. I’m back from the Sunday morning jaunt around the local area with mom.

    Reviewing 12z short range (I’m already set on the medium), and then updating…

  207. Irony: I added about 1 or 2 inches to my #’s between the Friday PM blog and the Saturday AM blog. Had I left the Friday one alone….they would have been more accurate in those areas that had less. 😛

    2. You did great.

      So, when all was said and done, what percentage attributed to the larger
      snows to the South?

      1. Synoptic snow (closer to the storm center)
      2. The dynamics of the ocean effect enhancement. (the ocean bands were there as we could see them, especially with radar scope)

      Was it a 50-50 Split? 25 ocean, 75 synoptic?

      This is a curious but very serious probing question on my part.
      I was totally fascinated watching the synoptic bands move SW to NE
      and the Ocean Bands moving NE to SW. In all honesty, the Synoptic
      bands appears to produce more of the snow.

      My guess on perecent (only applies to those areas that got both) was
      75% synoptic and 25% ocean enhancement.

      Again most curious.

      1. I was debating the same question myself JpDave.

        I believe it was something in the order of 70/30 in favor of the 850 inflow. The overlap of the 850mb flow and the snowfall are so close. Surely, a small amount of synoptic snow did reach the area.

        1. Thanks for your insight.

          My problem with your 70/30 in favor of 850 inflow, is that
          the majority of banding echos were moving up from the
          South either SW to NE or even S to N or SE to NW.
          That is a sign of synoptic banding.

          70/30 in favor of synoptic looks more real to me.

          I am really curious to see what TK has to say. 😀

          1. True as far as what the radar’s movement was showing. …. I’d offer that the intensity of the echos seen on the radar was made by the 850 mb inflow. In other words, if that 850 mb flow was half of what it was, the motion on the radar probably would have looked the same, but the snow intensity would have been so much less.

            Also looking forward to TK’s take.

        2. Clarification : I guess I consider the 850 mb flow to be more related to a small scale feature and not related to the low itself.

          1. Understood.

            My clarification.

            take a location. Say where Coastal is in Hanover

            How much of that snow was synoptic vs ocean
            dynamics?

            I say 75/25 in favor of synoptic.

      2. I’d tend to agree, maybe 70/30. A friend in Dennis got hammered by ocean-effect well into last night.

        1. 70 as the ocean?

          If that is the case, can you please discuss the
          obvious synoptic heavy banding moving SW to NE.

          Is it that those bands erupt when encountering the
          Ocean effect dynamics (all of them, surface conversion, 925 and 850 flow, friction etc etc), but still move with the upper flow?

          Just trying to totally understand.

    4. Of all the forecasts I watched, WHW did by far and away the very best. TK….never second guess although I know that is a trait of people who are the best.

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