Thursday Forecast

248 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
Cold air dominates the next 5 days. There will be a couple snow threats as waves of low pressure pass soth of New England Friday and early Sunday, but favoring southeastern areas, though an additional disturbance from the northwest may produce scattered snow showers all areas Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly eastern MA, RI, and southeastern CT, accumulating from nothing or a dusting northwest of Boston to 2-4 inches over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind light N to NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of snow possible southeastern areas at night. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow showers likely southeastern areas. Chance of snow showers elsewhere. Lows 15-22. Highs 26-33.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 18-25.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Turning milder. Risk of unsettled weather mainly January 11-13.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)
Overall mild with a couple precipitation events favoring rain.

248 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

      1. You are welcome. I just went to that station to bookmark and it appears Todd Gutner is there also. I always liked him. Although I think Eric is the cats meow, I always thought BZ gave Todd a raw deal.

  4. Some re-posts from Earlier this morning:

    JPDave says:
    January 5, 2017 at 6:40 AM
    fwiw, here are the sref plumes for boston. it shows a mean amount of about
    2.5 inches for each of the waves, fri and sat.

    http://imgur.com/a/PpbN0

    a couple of 12 hour snow maps

    1st wave

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gif

    2nd wave

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f072.gif

    I am not sure what to make of all this. I looked at all of the models, and frankly I am NOT impressed.

    I am hoping what Tom discussed materializes. That would be the Norlun feature, now best depicted by the cmc, although not all that strong:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017010500 /gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

    Here’s hoping that is stronger.
    Reply
    JPDave says:
    January 5, 2017 at 6:46 AM
    I know this is whacked, but for shits and giggles, here is one of the ensemble members from the sref, ARN3.

    http://imgur.com/a/WeE0p
    Reply
    JPDave says:
    January 5, 2017 at 7:00 AM
    looking at the ensembles for gfs, cmc and euro, every member is well off shore.
    Just does not look good. gfs ensembles strongly hint at a norlun, however.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010506 /gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010506 /gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_13.png

    this might show the 850 mb convergence tom was mentioning

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017010506 &var=TMPHGTGRD_850mb&hour=069

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017010506 &var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=069

    this is the otal gfs snow map, kuchera method

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017010506 &time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
    Reply

  5. Re: Norlun Trough

    From the post by Vicki, his point #3 on the Sat night system:

    3. Signs of a Norlun trough to bridge the gap from ocean to coast.

    Hmmm, have we seen that mentioned somewhere before??? Not sure???

    Btw, TK has warned us that Norlun troughs are tough to come by in a very progressive pattern. I don’t think that it means we can’t get one, but to get a juicy sustaining one
    the will really produce is pretty tough under the progressive pattern.

    Imho, there is clearly a Norlun signal, however, all signs point to it being relatively
    short lived and fairly weak. As of right now, all signs point to at most a few inches from it. Perhaps a bit more where there is some ocean enhancement. For those who
    want to see a snow storm, hope for a big Norlun/Ocean Effect Surprise element, else
    this thing is just TOO FAR OFF SHORE. Just my 2 cents as of 8:30 AM on Thursday. NAM about to come out. Will look for any possible changes. Yeah Right!

    1. I actually chuckled as I read his comment re Norlun trough, JPD.

      I do like the way this guy presents the information.

    1. according to the 12Z NAM, not until about 7AM in Boston. We’ll see what the
      other models have to say. 😀

    1. And that model may be true as I don’t think Boston sees more than an inch at most but as always I indeed could be wrong . This is a SS & cape special maybe even Plymouth to the cape special .

  9. It’s not too late for things to change for the weekend system but with each passing day it appears less and less likely for any significant snow. Things would have to change quickly and radically and I just don’t see that happening as models have been very consistently taking it off to the south and east.

  12. EUREKA!!! Not saying this is HOW it is, BUT the 12Z NAM has, indeed, tracked
    FARTHER NORTH with the 2nd wave. Here is the snow map for Both. This snow is
    ALL from 2nd wave except along the SOuth coast where about 2 inches is from the
    1st one. ALL snow in BOSTON is from 2nd wave.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017010512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Now we wait and see IF the GFS is on board or if it is still way off shore.

  13. NAM has been awful beyond 48 hours this season. Not saying it’s definitely wrong, but the 12z run is definitely an outlier.

    1. Let’s see. No matter it still represents a change. It may end up an outlier
      as you say, but it could be signalling a shift. We need to monitor.

      Experienced mets have been concerned about a “chance” that something
      like this could happen. Does it mean it will? Nope. But something
      to watch.

      Now, I am virtually certain that the GFS will still have this waaaaay off shore.

      We shall see.

      1. I’m not so sure JP. I’m thinking it will start to trend a little further north not by much but it will be a trend.

  15. I would submit that the reason the NAM came further northwest with the second system is that it looks like that northern stream energy approaching from the northwest that TK mentions above, it looks to me like the NAM has that feature slightly stronger and a bit further west, which then might tug that southern wave closer to the coast.

    Depends on if the NAM is properly modeling that northern stream energy as well as its location.

    1. Re northern stream energy, comparing for instance the 00z vs 12z run.

      Two different locations on the sfc map for where that northern disturbance would be.

    2. Agree with that assessment. IS it initialized properly???

      Watch TK, SAK or JMA come on and announce that there was an initialization error.

      I’d be surprised, but I sure would like to see an equal shift in the GFS.

      One thing notable with the NAM: Not much of a Norlun signal with that
      run. Perhaps because the pass was close enough? OR? Perhaps there will
      be No Norlun?

  18. The only thing I’ll say is the same as yesterday, despite my wording above don’t completely write off wave #2 yet.

  19. With the cold temperatures I think you can add a few to several more inches of snow on the amounts being shown on the 10 to 1 ratio as i think we could see ratios as high as 13 to 15 in parts of eastern mass. There will likely be a very sharp cut off as well, so I think there can be alot of snow where it does snow and then very little or nothing at all really quickly like within 10 miles

    1. Idk, it appears to come a little closer and delivers ~6″ up to I-95. Looks similar to 12Z NAM, no?

  25. As usual all eyes will go to the Euro and the UKMET in the next couple hours. I don’t expect big changes from them though. FWIW, the 12z CMC is basically a carbon copy of its 0z run. Mostly offshore. As TK said though, we have to watch it. It’s going to be loaded.

  26. That northern stream energy, which I think is very important to the outcome of system #2, probably is entering an area that is better sampled with weather balloons, etc. and I’m guessing the models are getting a better handle on its impact to the sharpness of the flow along the eastern seaboard.

  31. Regarding ratios, fwiw, the 0Z Euro had
    13:1 trending down to 10:1 for the Friday Snow.
    It has ZERO snow for Saturday night. 😀

  32. In another fwiw moment, the latest SREF Plumes show an increase in snow amounts
    as well.

    Here are the plumes:

    http://imgur.com/a/X8oHh

    Note: Plume Mean for both events shows 7.74 inches for Boston, with the high outlier
    at 18.56 inches and the low outlier at 0.85 inch. Now there’s a spread for you.

    Here is a new 12 hour snow map for the 2nd event. CLEARLY an uptic. Something is up for sure.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f066.gif

  34. Boston will eek out a couple. Far south shore and the cape 4-5. Out here in the valley I expect very little. That’s my guess 3 days or so out.

    2. I think it’s the closest you get to the cape . My guess would be from Plymouth down that would be the higher totals with the islands maybe being the jackpot . I think even my area , Toms’ & sue’s area even do ok. Boston maybe not as much . Just a guess as if now .

      1. And for the record I’m thinking Saturday night / Sunday for the SS & cape is when the bulk of it will fall vs tomorrow .

      1. ooz run
        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png
        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png
        a shift to the west, closer to the coast down in the mid atlantic
        Also less extreme but also slightly closer when in coastal canada
        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png
        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

        I am not totally sure how it travels passed the area. Looks some what like the gfs.

        1. Thanks for the images matt. I see what you mean and agree. Looks a little sharper along the east coast. In theory that should translate to a closer pass.

  37. Euro IS Closer by about 30 miles or so.

    Here is the total snow map:

    12Z

    http://imgur.com/a/X7VeQ

    0Z

    http://imgur.com/a/MwfDc

    On the detail is has boston .6 inch with Friday and 2.0 inches Sat/Sun.

    Woburn 0.5 and 1.4
    Weymouth 0.8 and 3.1
    marshfield 1.2 and 3.1
    Plymouth 1.5 and 3.6
    Falmouth 1.9 and 4.7
    Hyannis 1.6 and 4.7
    Nantucket 0.8 and 3.3 (me thinks some rain there)

    There is a sample of what the Euro wants to deliver. Does not seem consistent
    with the maps. Go Figure.

    Here are the precip grids

    http://imgur.com/a/KXMp4

    2. Thanks JpDave. What about a location a little further inland and southwest of Boston like Norwood? What are the amounts?

      1. Norwood 0.8 and 2.4
        Sharon 0.9 and 2.7
        Wrentham 1.0 and 2.4
        Sutton 0.7 and 1.0
        Brockton 1.4 and 4.0

          1. Good grief….I need a nap. I didn’t even see Sutton.

            Sorry about that. But turns out my thought process was working, just not my eyes!

  39. Was just listening to WBZ radio in the car. Weather report said “quiet weekend as a large ocean storm misses us”. Guess that is a wrap?

  40. Hate to keep being the killjoy, but beyond the NAM, the 12z models did not show the kind of reaction that would lead me to believe we’ll see heavier precip encroaching on areas beyond the Cape and Islands. The GFS move northward makes sense, since it had been south of the Euro for awhile now. Now they’re pretty close. The 15z SREF plumes came in a little lighter on snow than the 9z ones. I suspect that similar to the last big storm, this once again preludes a coming correction in that product as well as the NAM, possibly now at the 18z run but maybe not until tonight.

    All signs at this point are a glancing blow at worst, with the big questions for me being how much snow for the Cape/Islands, and does anything measurable get up to the Boston area?

  43. Also something to keep in mind, especially with a storm like this: cut offs are often sharper than they appear. Even when the cutoff appears sharp on a model, in reality it’s usually even sharper. We have a very dry air mass overhead. That will come into play tonight as well. Very little if any snow for most places with the 1st wave outside of the 2-4″ for the Cape/Islands. Given we’re less than 3 days out, I’ll go ahead and toss out 3-6″ for the Cape/Islands for the 2nd storm, with the 6 being most likely on Nantucket, trending down to C-2″ for the I95 corridor.

  44. It looks like I will miss out on the fun on Saturday unless the NAM pulls a miracle and gets one right.

  45. I do remember a storm that was forecasted to be offshore back in December a couple years ago on a Thursday wehn the 18z runs of NAM and GFS came in north and showed a snowstorm and the trend continued on the 0z runs.

  46. Hmmm

    I think this talk of a total miss is a bit premature.

    We shall see.

    If it is, that is very disappointing.

  49. If that high pressure to the north of the area was a tad to the west i think we would of been getting a good hit

      1. I do think that this is a tad N&W than the 12Z run.
        OR the qpf is up a tad, I’ll take it either way. 😀

  51. Current thoughts: 3 threats (though the 3rd is different). Note a slight difference in timing.
    1) Friday, which I think will be in the vicinity of 1-3 inches southeast of Boston and 1 inch or less Boston to northwestern RI tapering to zilch as you go northwest from there.
    2) Saturday afternoon & night, which I think will be slightly more productive than Friday, maybe add 1 or 2 inches to whatever falls Friday and maybe edge the thing slightly north. This is a faster timing than what I thought earlier. Also have to watch for enhanced snowfall South Shore / Cape Cod.
    3) Sunday daytime and evening, which will be snow showers and isolated snow squalls from a disturbance and advancing cold air. Again may have ocean snow showers in addition to the disturbance over the South Shore & Cape Cod.

  52. Way too premature to give up and give snow numbers imo. Let’s see how the first wave behaves and what impact it might have on the 2nd piece. We know better than to assume anything at this point.

    1. That’s why I said “maybe” regarding the 2nd system. It’s 48 hours away, and in my range for numbers, at least preliminary ones.

      1. That’s a whole lot of snow, especially South of Boston where
        some of the numbers are in the 15 inch range. 😀

        Again, this is the NAM and the 18Z NAM at that. So let’s not get too excited just yet.

        Let’s see IF the GFS is on board with yet another N&W shift.

        AND also, see IF the 0Z NAM stays the course.

  56. Don’t bite too hard on the exact #’s from the 18z NAM that far out. But what it does represent is the trend that has been possible all along. The alleged NORLUN was actually a misrepresentation of sorts. Still some fine-tuning to go, obviously.

  60. Storm(s) look like a Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket special. I think they could easily get over a foot of snow when all is said and done. It’ll be powdery – high ratio. Ocean effect snows could give the Cape a decent shot of snow, too, particularly with storm 2. I think Boston will be mostly light stuff.

  61. Interesting. Winter Weather advisories have been hoisted for tomorrow’s snow but just for the Cape and Islands and extreme south coastal locations. That leads me to believe most don’t even get in to any snowfall at all tomorrow.

  62. The NAM was good for the blizzard of 2015 for the Mid Atlantic last year. I would be happy with a 5 6 inch amount where I am.

  63. 18z GFS confirms what we already knew, that the NAM remains a major outlier. It actually looks a bit further east. Good model agreement.

  64. Tough getting 18Z model data. So far, it looks like the GFS wants to do
    the NORLUN dance. Storm still pretty far off shore, but throwing back decent
    precip all the way up to Boston. Still waiting…waiting…waiting…..

  65. Similar to the last storm, relying on the medium range models may not be the best idea. If you are correct we should see the Nam start to shift in the next few runs

  66. SREF usually foreshadows the NAM. If we see it drop off tonight, NAM will follow.

    Given the model agreement, I actually feel a little more confident than normal for this range about my first call numbers. Classic glancing blow. It’s a risky forecast though. Like TK said, given we’re about 48 hours from potential onset, we’re certainly within range to give numbers. My gut tells me we’re going to see a late shift southeast. But obviously a shift northwest and we’re dealing with a NAM level event.

    1. I do think the 18z did come a little TOO far northwest, if you want my specific idea at the moment.

          1. Reporting at 3:00 am Tk from the sounds of it may not see flakes there till 5 or 7 do you agree . My man Harvey has 1-3 down this way from brainteee down and a coating to an inch for Boston as that’s what I was guessing for Boston . Looks like a salter & inconvenience for the city tomorrow .

              1. The Friday system in Boston should start at 6AM or 7AM and be done by late morning there.

                The Saturday system should start around or shortly after dusk and be over by the early hours of Sunday.

    2. I believe it’s the other way around. If the NAM makes a correction, then it
      is the SREF that will follow suit later. 😀 The NAME completes way before the SREF. For example right now we can view the 18Z NAM, while we are looking at the 15Z SREF. The 0z NAM will be available before the 21Z SREF.

  68. I think the models will make up their minds tonight and tomorrow afternoon after they know what happens after the first wave

    1. I think the general main models are in fairly decent agreement on #1 at this point. A few minor variations in snowfall distribution on their forecasts, but that’s to be expected even right into the start of the event.

      1. I agree on that, im talking about the second system, I think the models will get a better handle of the second system and we will start to see an agreement between the short range and long range tonights ooz and 12z tomorrow.

  69. I am fairly confident we see at least an advisory level storm and maybe even a winter storm warning type event.

        1. Warning event? No way. I’m not even convinced of advisory level. Not for Boston proper anyway. Maybe a little further south and east. Outer cape and islands maybe. If you want to see warning levels, maybe, drive down to Brewster or Truro.

  72. Harvey is already calling for a moderate snowfall for Boston late Saturday and no mets have mentioned anything for Sunday…not even flurries.

    1. Harvey didn’t really say it was solid, but he’s leaning that way.

      As far as Sunday, upper disturbance, weak surface boundary, should be enough for a few snow showers. Also northerly wind off the Atlantic should be enough for snow showers at least Cape Cod, maybe South Shore and Cape Ann as well.

      1. He also mentioned dry air in Boston could play a role in the am snow for tomorrow in Boston ( key word is possible !!!!!!

          1. Yes he did. I was just backing up Philip that it was visually shown so that’s where people could get confused.

            1. Yes it was on the map moderate but as Tk said it was with an explanation and he was in no way going that way ( it was possible .

  74. Pete on NBC Boston already has #s for late Saturday:

    Boston = 2-4″
    SE MA & Cape = 4-7″ isolated 8 inch amounts

    1. The snow showers? There may be a few potent ones around with the upper disturbance producing spotty small accumulation. A more general accumulation (after the 2nd wave) may still occur on Cape Cod and possibly the South Shore and outer Cape Ann, depending on the wind.

  77. State of emergency declared across a good portion of north GA for tomorrow. Sister in law did her regular food,shopping this am and said stores were not bad. Apparently, they didn’t get the message that they need to buy up all the bread and milk 🙂

  78. I continue to grow more confident of a moderate snowstorm Boston southwest and southeast Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. There could be localized enhancement of snow if that norlun feature comes into fruition and that is a big IF but looking more likely that we see plowable snow I95 corridor and to the south and east.

    1. I can agree with some of it . Regardless between tomorrow & Saturday as I’ve been saying it’s the SS & cape who could be in a decent storm . Boston could get more snow than previously thought today for Saturday but it will not be as much as the areas listed above . Important runs coming up .

      1. Of course. Cape and Islands see more as they are closest to the storm but a general 4-8 inches is looking more likely from Boston south. Still plenty of time for the system to move in either direction (further northwest or southeast).

        1. Respectfully I don’t think that number holds and that is just a guess on that one . Let’s see tonight’s run and more importantly tomorrow’s run .

    1. If confidence continues to grow to a closer pass. Not a slam dunk but looking more that way to me.

        1. That’s probably a pretty good bet out here. I don’t expect more than a dusting at this point out our way.

  82. Fisher isn’t too bullish on Saturday’s storm for Boston. Out of all of them, he’s the most conservative for Saturday. He didn’t have any numbers yet, but had Boston south down to about the canal in a “light snow” zone. At least that’s what he has 48 hours out.

        1. I heard him on the radio and he did say Saturday . Who knows tomorrow could show NEMO for us all . 2-1 Bruins

        2. I really don’t care if Boston gets 2 feet. I dont have to shovel the junk. I’m not getting much of anything out my way.

  83. Always be wary of radio forecast feeds, even on WBZ, as they can be several hours old.

      1. I saw his evening weathercast on TV. I think he may edge things up a bit on the 11 depending on the 00z runs.

  85. The 21z SREF sure didn’t back down. Did the opposite, with a decisive northwest shift. Even more of an outlier now against the other guidance. Keeps it interesting, right 😉

    The 0z models tonight are key. Everything should be well sampled now. If there’s going to be any big changes remaining, we should see it played out tonight. Beyond then, it’ll mostly be fine tuning. Until any credible piece of guidance joins the NAM, it should be, as I say, disregarded but not forgotten.

    1. I think the 18z NAM represents the upper limit of possibility but is likely higher than what will actually take place.

  87. I have a construction site I’m to clean up on Saturday morning I’m trying to figure it out . I contacted my customer and said I was monitoring the weather .

  89. 21z SREF on cod site indicating 75 % chance of greater than 4 inches of snow for SNE at hour 54 which is 11pm Saturday night.

  91. I would say the 0z Nam shifted further north and west…I’ll post the 3km totals in a few, but you’ll see a large shift west in the snow totals

  92. Will see what happens. Last year for the blizzard of 2016 in the Mid Atlantic the short range models nailed it. Hopefully the same thing happens here this time.

  98. Seems like Eric and Harvey are growing a little more concerned for 2nd storm from what I’m seeing on twitter.

  100. Throwing out some thoughts ….

    – I like to multiply NAM snowfall projections by .4 So when I see 2-5 on the NAM, I interpret that as 1-2. 6-10 on the NAM = 2 to 4 and so on.

    I’ll play along and say the 00z NAM position of the surface low will verify. But, when I look at the projected surface winds, I’m struggling to see a lot of onshore flow. I don’t get the sense the surface winds will be NE for very long on the 2nd system. I think they’ll either be N or NNW. I haven’t seen very often big snow amounts on those surface wind directions. Additionally, that type of surface wind is famous for we’ve ting in drier air which usually eats away at the NW side of the snow shield.

    So, I kind of have in my mind for the 2nd system, 1-2 inches for Boston. Slowly building to 3-4 inches by the Sagamore and Bourne Bridges. I think the mid and outer Cape may be the wild cards, with the N or NNW flow traveling over mid 40F ocean temps. I’d say Hyannis or any outer Cape town could be in for a bullseye of 6+ with a helping hand from ocean enhancement.

    Then, after the synoptic snow from the storm leaves, inland areas could get snow showers or even a squall Sunday from that additional energy coming through from the northern stream system.

    1. I think there may be enough time for the dewpoints to drop a bit again in SE New England between systems. I think it’s more, that in this setup, the lower atmosphere will be fighting a colder, drier airmass trying to push in from our north as the wave pushes to our south and east.

  102. And …. Look at the NAM’s projection for snowfall all the way to the Gulf coast.

    Now, if that’s occurring Late Friday night or Saturday morning, I’ll jump in on the NAM’s boat. Does anyone think it’s going to snow that much, if at all, that far south ?? Big red flag.

  103. wow. so here is comparisons between the Nams with the 10-1 ratio and then kuchera
    Nam (32)
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017010600&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010600&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Nam 3km
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017010600&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010600&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Nam4km
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017010600&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017010600&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    All the 10-1 models are lower by 2 to as much as 5 inches than the kuchera method.

    current thoughts is that there be a sharper cut off of precipitation. between 128/i95 and 495.

    1. Although I completely agree with you I’m not sure that error applies to the projections up here…I think your comment on the dry nw edge will be key to determining snowfall totals around here as well as the actual low’s positioning of course

      1. Thanks …… Yeah, that could be true. And I’m sure that there have been instances where what you describe is true. I just get suspicious when I see something early on in a models take on a storm that seems suspicious. Of course, I do suppose we ultimately need to see what happens in the Deep South later tomorrow. 🙂 🙂

    2. Tom have you seen 00z GFS? Looks like it has decent snowfall similar to Nam in AL. If I’m looking at it correctly.

      1. Just saw it. Focused on New England.

        There’s no denying there is a common theme growing here. It looks like a decent snow event Boston, southeastward. (I’m not looking at snow amounts).

        Perhaps there is some atmospheric connection btwn the coastal storm and that northern stream energy that extends the snow shield further north and west than might usually occur. I’m only guessing that because the actual low looks to me to be about 100 miles southeast of the benchmark ?????

  106. Short range models tonight NAM SREF and RGEM want to bring snow to all of SNE Saturday night. 0z GFS wants to just give snow to eastern parts of SNE.
    Will see who wins the short range models or the long range models.

  108. As I head to sleep, I know I am not adding to the discussion but I truly think anyone who loves weather can feel the passion and electricity building here. Thank you all.

  110. It should be fun. I always underestimate snowfall and always like to look at what could be mitigating factors in winter storms that could cause snowfall to underperform. So, that should make everyone feel good !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I’m looking forward to tomorrow morning and seeing if and how much snow we have in Marshfield. Good night.

  111. Of course it’s going to snow. Have to head up to Maine tomorrow to deal with serious MIL medical issue.

    GFS has even more of an uptick compared to 18z so let’s see what euro says.

  116. I was DISMAYED at the ultra conservative approach Eric took with this event.
    ONLY a light snowfall for Boston.

    I disagree. You should have heard the grief I took when I openly told my wife that
    I disagreed with Eric’s forecast. Now I hope I don’t have egg on my face.

    I think Eric should have said moderate for Boston. Not sure why he said light.
    All guidance says at least moderate, even if you don’t look at the NAM.

    Now I want to see IF they back off overnight.

    It will be interesting to see IF the Euro has an uptic as well. 😀

    1. UKMET looks interesting as well, although the precipitation totals are
      not yet available. Still, it looks like an uptic over 12Z

  118. As of 00z runs (not including ECMWF), NAM represents the upper limit and probably will not verify. CMC/GFS are a more realistic depiction of how I think it plays out for both systems. Of course there is still a little time left for change.

    There will be no true Norlun trough. That earlier model feature was wrong, and represented a weakness and was indeed a prelude to later model correction. These systems are too progressive to set up such a trough. Higher snow totals along parts of the southeastern MA coast would be due to simple ocean enhancement from wind off the water.

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