Wednesday Forecast

155 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)
We transition to cold but not before a fairly mild day today, although a lot of clouds and a gusty breeze will be around as well. Once a cold front passes this evening with a few rain/snow showers, the cold air comes in and hangs around through the coming weekend. We also continue to eye a couple snow threats from waves of low pressure which will pass south of the region Friday and Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Risk of rain showers mainly west and north of Boston late in the day. Highs 46-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers early. Lows 27-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow, favoring southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI. Lows 16-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow at night favoring southeastern areas. Lows 12-20. Highs 27-34.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow favoring southern and eastern areas. Lows 15-23. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)
Fair and cold start to the period then turning milder with unsettled weather at times January 11-13.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)
Milder pattern with a few episodes of brief unsettled weather with rain showers favored.

155 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning again and than you tk. Really waiting on 12z runs to see if there are some changes, specifically look for a move northward.

  6. Models will continue to demonstrate signs of a stronger, more amplified and western solution of the late weekend storm.

  7. Before that looks like a minor event for Friday. I am getting my car washed today so it will snow as it does the majority of the time I do that. I want to take advantage of the mild day today and get the stuff off the car so it doesn’t eat up at the under carriage.

  8. Bernie didn’t seem as enthused in his morning video. Can’t wait to see what the 12z runs show. And by “I can’t wait to see”, I mean I can’t wait for JPD to interpret them for me. 🙂

    1. Not sure what has changed since yesterday? To me, nothing in the models has significantly swayed in either direction since his last video.

  10. Odd observation:

    I was noticing how GREEN the grass was this morning. Not sure I have ever seen
    such green grass on 1/4? Perhaps it has something to do with my new lawn this
    past Spring, but I see it elsewhere as well. Probably has been before and I just didn’t notice.

    2. Mine is not so green. Brown/yellow and soft and muddy in fact. I forgot to apply a winterizer fertilizer this year. For all the lawncare geeks out there, is it too late to apply?

        2. Thanks from me too, John. I think we may start with a lawn service this spring. We just don’t get it done.

  11. 12Z NAMS are almost out. All 4 of them differ, but ALL of them show SNOW in here
    for Friday, some more than others. Will post some maps in a little bit.

    Will be tied up in a damn meeting for 2+ hours starting at 10:30. I HATE meetings.
    I find them to be nothing but a waste of time and an opportunity for some people
    to hear themselves talk. 😀 Oh well, I guess that is my problem. I should listen to my wife who says to enjoy them and be thankful I don’t have to work. Sorry, I’d MUCH rather work.

  12. nams saying light snow fall 1-4 south of the pike (Boston included)
    minor snowfall of less than 1 inch north of the pike.

  13. 12KM NAM snowfall for Friday: (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010412/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

    NOTE: this model says a MISS for Saturday

    4KM NAM snowfall for Friday: (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017010412/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

    3KM NAM snowfall for Friday: (10:1)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017010412/nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

    32KM regular NAM for Friday (Kuchera):

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017010412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    Here is the NAM MISS for Saturday: (Note: 84 hrs is NOT in the NAM wheelhouse. NAM best 48 hours in)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017010412&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

  17. The storm is a miss but looks to be norlun trough setup that gives eastern parts of SNE snow over the weekend.

  19. South shore Cape and Islands are the winners with that snow for the weekend with that norlun trough.

  22. 12z guidance today has me leaning pretty far towards suppressed for the weekend, with the potential Norlun wildcard. Will wait on the Euro but I bet it slips southeast a bit. Best bet for any snow will definitely be Cape/Islands. Beyond that, a Carolina classic, big totals down there, at least by there standards, all the way to the coast.

  23. CMC has that norlun trough feature for weekend. Extends it so Worcester areas gets some snow.
    For Friday southern parts of CT, RI, and MA get in on a little snow.

  24. That norlun feature could reek havoc on Boston with a more amplified solution. Still 84 hours or so for flow to sharpen a bit.

  25. Norlun troughs are very, very finicky. The vast majority of the time they underperform what they’re modeled as. Once in awhile you’ll get one that crushes a localized area. It’s almost impossible to know which it’ll be until it’s actually happening. We’re still not sure if that’ll even be applicable in this case.

  28. Euro a bit southeast of its 0z run, still shows several inches of snow over the Cape and Islands. Also does not bite on the Norlun at all. Won’t be good news for some, but I think that run is on the money.

  31. We all know the drill here, its a wait and see game as we get closer to the weekend. One model run comes out showing a little more snow, then the next run it shows less. If the past few years has shown us anything its that anything can happen and never rule anything out. Works the other way too. Nothing is set in stone even if it shows a lot of snow. I cant give any model run credence until at least 0Z runs Friday morning.

    1. Same here Ace. GFS was showing a miss for Friday now is starting to show a few inches now that we are getting closer to 48hrs.

    2. Yes and no. The EURO was creeping closer with each run and now has
      retreated. Most discouraging.

      Friday WILL deliver MORE snow than Saturday, IMHO.

  34. Friday its not the amount but the timing as it could have an impact on the Friday morning commute.

  36. Here is what I think of the 12Z Runs:
    !@()#)(!@)*(#$&!*(@#&*(!@&#*&!@*(#&*!@#$*^!($&&(!@)*#$(*!)(@*#$()!$&_!@($_()!@*#$()!*@()$&*!()@*#()!*@#()*!()@#*()!*@#$(*!@()#$*!()*@#()*!()#*!()@*#!*()@#*!()@*#()!*#()*!()@#*!(@*#()!*@()#*!()@#*(!*@#()*!()@#*()!*@#()!*@()#*!()#()!*@#()*!()@#*!()#*()!*@#()*!()@*#()!*@#()!*)(@#*!()@#*(!)*@#()!*()@#*!(*@#()!*@#()*!)(@#*()!*@#(*!)(@#*)!(@#*!(@*#()!*)#!@()#

    Euro MORE off shore than 0Z run.
    GFS and CMC have NO SNOW, “except” for the phantom “Norlun” feature
    that ain’t gonna happen.

    In the end, this will probably be “Much Ado About Nothing”!

    IF anything at all, the Friday system “may” be making a closer pass than
    the Saturday system. 😀

    What a DEPRESSING afternoon after an interminable meeting that lasted nearly
    3 hours!

    One funny thing about the meeting. The presenter (management training) was the Senior Class President of my son’s graduating class at Boston Latin School and is still friends with him on FB. Small world.

  37. Tweet from Bernie:

    Everyone really needs to relax on this storm. new video coming. I have no new thoughts. like I said yesterday the backedge is I-95

    1. Pretty much what have been seeing here (Save for the impossible Phantom Norlun)

      Wouldn’t it be something if we DID get the Norlon and it over achieved? 😀 😀

  38. I’m not throwing in the towel on this storm. Still have plenty of time to see things trend north again. It’s the usual back and forth.

    1. I am with you Tj. We’ve had our share of models showing we are going to get clobbered and then two days later the models show the storm quietly fizzling out or heading out to sea. I am keeping the faith.

      1. Waiting on the 12KM, 4KM and 3KM NAM along with the RGEM, all of which will be coming out shortly.

  44. I rather see storms travel over us as that gives ski areas some snow I rather see the cape, south shore etc get rain.

    2. Idk Matt. I thought you had snow in Feb 2015. Ski areas didn’t. Now that they have a nice base, I’d like a turn also please.

      1. if i aint getting any at my house i want it north. Looks like these storms will effect the south leaving us here in the southern merrimack valley still waiting for some good snow. In winter i do not want to see the ground. especially if it gets extremely cold as it could harm the roses and will not here the end of it from my mother

  46. 12KM NAM snow for Friday: (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010418/namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

    4KM NAM Snow for Friday (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017010418/nam4km_asnow_neus_18.png

    3Km NAM Snow for Friday (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017010418/nam3km_asnow_neus_51.png

    3KM NAM Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017010418/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_44.png

  47. The nam is not within its good range yet but with those totals due to the cooler air, I would say sharper cut off but the eastern areas see more due to fluff factor.

  48. Natural gas prices down 11% today in their largest single session loss since Feb. 2014, per MarketWatch. This time of year, nat gas and the medium to long range forecast are highly correlated. Something worth checking everyday if you want to really get an idea of what the prevailing wisdom is, because obviously those energy traders aren’t messing around. Forecasters and traders alike pricing in a high likelihood of well above normal temperatures across the central and eastern US days 7-15+. Other factors go into it of course, but most days Dec-Mar (and over the summer too), weather is the biggest driver.

      1. It went up a ton in December because of the mid month cold shot. So you would’ve saved there for sure.

        By the way, I saw your rain gauge question from last night; I had .86″ here. I think your old gauge was low-balling you. Maybe that explains some of the difference in the past.

      1. My point is that it is Sharper than previous runs.
        Still OTS, BUT I hold out hope for more sharpening. 😀

  53. 18z GFS is a nice step towards what I believe is a 12z ECMWF run that has pretty much zeroed everything in for the next several days. Friday event trending south a bit. Non-issue for most except maybe an inch or two Cape/Islands. For the weekend storm, the 18z GFS has come north a little, closer but still a tad southeast of the Euro, and it’s also weaker on the Norlun feature which I believe is the right idea. We still have to watch that because a slight jog northward and the Cape at least could get into several inches of snow.

    Ironic that parts of coastal North Carolina could surpass Boston’s total snowfall so far with this one storm, in a La Nina winter no less.

        1. That is what caught your attention 🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

          And, you have a temporary lapse in who you are talking to……. I use it all winter so of course !!!!

    2. Pete B predicted a couple squalls last night on the NBC 10 newscast. Radar seems to show that right now.

      1. It was clear irregularly shaped ice like the ice that comes out of my fridge ice maker if I get it crushed

  58. I’m seeing something on Facebook saying reports of thundersnow in the Worcester County area with that followup batch of precip.

  59. that squall line is getting close to boston. We’re sitting at 39 here in JP. Hopeful
    it WILL be SNOW and NOT Rain. Standing by. 😀

    Vicki, Awesome shot of that SAIL? OR SLAIL? at your house.

  61. It’s at 128 now, only about 10-12 miles away, BUT it appears to be WEAKENING OF COURSE!!! WHY should I ever expect anything else. Means it will probably RAIN
    for sure.

  62. Driving on 128 by exit 30, pulled into Macdonalds rest area, pretty good snow falling right now…. interesting weather!

  64. I never seem to catch the TV forecasts anymore, but I happened to be watching Pete at the new NBC yesterday PM and as some of you have said, he was all over the squalls. Well done. The models did not handle today well at all, morning all the way through now.

  66. Downn to 36 dp 31 in SNOW. I would NOT NOT NOT call it a squall at this point, just
    a nice healthy SNOW SHOWER. Gimmie a break. 😀

  68. VIS still not even down to anywhere near where it was in that little December Snow
    Storm we had. Not even close, but it is SNOWING.

  69. I definitely wouldn’t call it a squall, but it was unexpected for me! Just a quick bit of moderate snow and mix. Drove out of it pretty quick though.

  71. The 2nd system in the middle of the weekend is more intriguing to me.

    I’m not sure it’s the actual low itself that is the culprit.

    As that second southern stream system is coming out of the southeast, I think both the GFS and the EURO have a northern stream system to new England’s northwest. It’s not particularly strong, but I do think it can be seen in the isobars from just north of the eastern Great Lakes up to the James Bay region.

    The two systems stay unphased, but I hypothesize that this lagging little northern stream feature acts to help extend enough of a weakness back from the far out to sea low pressure area and presto, the trof near the immediate coastline that the GFS has been showing for a while. It allows there to be a bit of convergence at 850mb near the coast.

    A private little close to the coast snow event in the middle of the weekend, I believe, is a possibility.

  73. 00z Nam looks further north for the first storm bringing still a light event. The second storm looks a little further north also nam has the storm a bit stronger but precipitation off shore. 500mb looks similar to 18z. JP can you confirm?

  74. Im getting the feeling the further north the first storm is the better the chance we see the second system becoming more favorable for a closer track…. I am hoping for a closer track so we get a good hit for the Merrimack Valley but doubt it.

  75. 00z NAM way further north for the first wave but still only 1-3 in Boston but more down south. Things will get very interesting for the weekend.

  76. gfs has an elongated low pressure out to sea. and gives a crushing southern coastal mid-atlantic winter storm with alot of ocean effect snow for the cape with up to a foot in some locations.

  77. fwiw, here are the sref plumes for boston. it shows a mean amount of about
    2.5 inches for each of the waves, fri and sat.

    http://imgur.com/a/PpbN0

    a couple of 12 hour snow maps

    1st wave

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gif

    2nd wave

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f072.gif

    I am not sure what to make of all this. I looked at all of the models, and frankly I am NOT impressed.

    I am hoping what Tom discussed materializes. That would be the Norlun feature, now best depicted by the cmc, although not all that strong:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017010500/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

    Here’s hoping that is stronger.

  78. looking at the ensembles for gfs, cmc and euro, every member is well off shore.
    Just does not look good. gfs ensembles strongly hint at a norlun, however.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010506/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010506/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_13.png

    this might show the 850 mb convergence tom was mentioning

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017010506&var=TMPHGTGRD_850mb&hour=069

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017010506&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=069

    this is the otal gfs snow map, kuchera method

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017010506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    1. Maybe an inch for Boston tomorrow if that . Thinking Tom may be right on the south shore / cape & islands having there own little event Saturday pm.

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