Monday Forecast

77 Comments

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
High pressure slips off to the east today. A warm front crosses the region from southwest to northeast early Tuesday, followed by a Pacific cold front early Wednesday as low pressure passes north of New England. The air behind the Pacific front, as we have seen, will not be all that chilly. We’ll have to wait for a secondary polar cold front to arrive Wednesday night to introduce colder air for Thursday. A disturbance moving across the northeastern US brings the chance for some light precipitation by Friday, but the details of this remain uncertain.
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 30-38. Wind light N shifting to SE.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-30. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with patchy light sleet, freezing rain, and rain morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind light SE early, then S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny thereafter with a chance of a late day rain shower. Highs 50-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 28-35. Highs 43-50.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/snow. Lows 23-30. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
There remains uncertainly in this period but leaning colder and mainly dry for March 11 and a risk of some mix/snow March 12 depending on the track of low pressure. Will watch for additional unsettled weather at times for the remainder of the period though it may moderate, temperature-wise for a couple days.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Still looks like it will be on the colder side of normal with 1 or 2 threat of precipitation possible.

77 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Pretty chilly again this morning.

    Some snow threats coming up, eh? 2 could pass South of the area and one
    West, but who knows at this point.

    Euro has nothing for the 10th (fri) and the next one which is fairly juicy sat/sun goes “just” barely South. The biggest, juicier still, on the 15th looks to pass N&W of our area, but that is a long way off.

    But given the amount of model consensus, I wouldn’t write of any of them just yet.

    We shall see. Looking forward to how each model handles it all on the next run. 😀

    That was one COLD weekend for March. Have we seen it before? Certainly, but for some reason it was really noticeable this weekend, at least for me anyway.

    1. We can always talk ……………………….oh, never mind. Let’s stick to weather.

      One lonely little cloud in the sky that I can see from my window. The blue of the sky is not as brilliant as some days. More of a light, icy shade of blue.

  6. Thanks, TK…

    Speaking of A+’s, you get one, Longshot, for a great quiz yesterday. Lots of fun.

    Hope you’re well, Longshot…

    1. Thank you, Captain. You live up to your name which always makes me smile! Again, I echo your comment. I loved four quizzes at one time. And Longshot, I also hope you are well.

  7. Some were weather-related, but our state has suffered horribly with tragedy in the last week. Two people lost their lives when trees fell on their cars; and seven people in two house fires in the last 48 hours, two men in Milton and the heart-wrenching loss of a mom and her four children in Warwick, MA.
    My heart broke listening to the volunteer fire chief from Warwick describe the rescue attempt.
    Blessings to all involved…

  8. 12Z GFS continues the theme of keeping any snow event on Friday suppressed
    to the South of our area.

  9. Thanks TK !

    I am glad to see the maritimes low and Canadian high pressure seemingly representative of things being suppressed to our south.

    I can handle a cold March airmass, as during the day, I will take my chances with the sun.

  10. This is my feeling as to the evolution of potential storminess between March 10th – 16th. As Sylvester Stallone once said in the infamous movie Rocky, “I’m seeing three of them out there.” His trainer Mickey follows, “Hit the one in the middle.” That one has my attention.

    1. he he he

      We shall see.

      If the one in the middle is the one for the 12th, I agree. I just get a sense
      that it might be coming up here. Not that it would be an absolute block buster, but it would be substantial enough.

      We shall see. Last night’s Euro also had it suppressed, but close enough
      that we don’t want to let our guard down.

        1. No funny business with an upfront dump of snow.
          pretty much right over to RAIN in SNE.

          Last night’s Euro, had it much closer to the coast, which leads me to believe this is still up in the air.

          We shall see.

    1. And then how about this puppy?

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017030612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=360

      Of course this are so far out there, they represent fantasy at this point.

      The only reason I post them is to show that there is potential activity out
      there for the next 16 days, not that any of these charts will verify. 😀

      In any case it will be interesting to watch and see.

      TK did mention a period for which we could get some Wintry precipitation.

      Time will tell. I wonder what the Euro will show. We’ll know in a couple of hours. 😀

    1. And please forgive me IF I have posted this in the past. I don’t think so, but
      it is possible.

  13. I’m not overly concerned at the moment with 1 or 2 but they are not being dismissed either. I just want to apply more crude methods because guidance is not resolving these correctly.

    1. How about down the road with 1 or more of those systems?

      All we need is for just one of them to pan out then Boston reaches
      or exceeds its seasonal snow total and that is ALL I want out of this Winter. 😀

  14. they seem to be northern stream based systems coming across the country and we know the models are crap when it comes to these in terms of timing and amount of moisture.

    1. I think at least one or two of the several systems could give us that big march storm to keep the skiing season going a bit. Unfortunatly I was not able to go this past weekend due to others having things they needed to get done… Next weekend I have already called is mine so having a bit of snow will make it great 😀 so bring out those Hair dryers Vicki 😀

  15. JPDave, Completely agree on this weekend being a very cold one for March. Had a mid-January feel to it. The red-winged blackbirds were a bit upset, I think, as I did not hear them calling on Saturday or Sunday. Hard to know where they spent both days. My guess is they seek some shelter between the reeds. Nevertheless, it’s got to be very cold for them, after having spent 6 months in Mexico or other warm-weather places.

    And thanks, TK, for your forecasts and explanations.

    1. Joshua,

      Do you often see red-winged black birds along the Charles? Curious.
      I never see them near my house. I have seen them while fishing well outside
      of the City.

      The birds I see near the house are in no particular order:

      Sparrows
      chickadees
      Cardinals
      blue jays
      robins
      Grackles
      Crows
      hawks
      mocking birds

    2. I have a bluebird very interested in the blue bird house the kids gave me for my birthday last year. We put it up far too late for them to nest last year. But he was sitting on the top this am and stuck his head and upper body way in. I want badly to make sure nothing else has nested in there but am afraid if they are nesting I’ll scare them away.

      I know bluebirds are year round but I’m surprised how much more brilliant his colors are already.

        1. I may have seen a couple in Framingham but fleetingly. We have a ton of them here. They are lovely little birds. They, alone with cardinals and goldfinches, are probably my most favorite birds.

          I cannot remember if I posted here last fall when I was sitting on the deck and heard this loud whoop whoop whoop sound. It turned out to be a swan (probably one that lives in the pond at the end of the street) flying overhead. What a spectacular sight but wow he/she was loud.

          1. Did you ever see a swan take flight from solid ground? What a sight to behold. Where I used to work, we had some swans tka eup residence in our pond. One day they were on the upper deck of our parking garage and we went up there to investigate. The pair of swans decided to take flight. It was reminiscent of a 747 taking off. They started running down the lot and flapping their wings and took a good 100 feet of running before they could get airborne. I wish I had a video.

            Amazing birds.

            1. Wow – I’d love to see that but never have. I cannot even imagine how great it was. They really are amazing birds. We have water everywhere here and there is at least one pair in each area. I love it.

  17. 12Z Euro takes the 1st 2 systems at least what there is of #1 and keeps them
    both WELL SOUTH of the area. No surprise there.

  18. I think we will have a much better idea after the system come through tomorrow what the the weekend system will do. With blocking in place I can see it coming further north. I actually like that’s the models have it south now. Plenty of time for adjustment.

    1. Hadi,

      I like your thinking. There is room for a Northward progression, however,
      nothing is certain. As of the 12Z runs today, both the Euro and GFS keep
      system #2 South. However, The Euro differs with System #3. Waiting for
      my service to get far enough out to look at the precipitation charts. From
      Instant Weather maps, there is a weak system over New England with
      thermo profiles supporting snow. I just don’t know how much if any
      precipitation it shows.

  21. It will not take much of a shift north to get things interesting late week and late next weekend.

    1. Even MORE interesting is the FIM’s Solution for system #3.

      https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2017030612/130/3hap_sfc_f198.png

      Snow map to go with that (10:1)

      https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2017030612/t3/totsn_24h_f210.png

      Note: this is the Experimental FIM model which ranks # 3-5 on the list
      of reliable models, depending whose list it is. Perhaps LOWER on the
      list for some.

      Personally I would rank them as follows:

      #1 EURO
      #2 GFS
      #3 UKMET
      #4 FIM
      #5 CMC

      Of course the rankings may vary depending whose list it is.

      This is just my personal feeling and that is all.

      1. For shorter range, I’d move the NAM and the RGEM in there
        under #1 and above #4 somewhere.

  24. I will be happy if one of the three snow potential hits. More than one icing on the cake. Lets end winter 16-17 with a BANG!!!

    1. It seems like there are enough chances to cash in on at least one of them, however, that is still no guarantee.

  25. Of course the 12z GFS gives Boston 33 inches and Worcester 42 inches through 384, so that must just be the forecast automatically, right? 😛

    2. Yes, indeed. Isn’t that how it works?

      If we haven’t learned by now, we never will. These models can’t be trusted
      until they get within a couple of days give or take depending on conditions.

      Trust me, we know. Still, it’s fun to post this stuff. Well at least it is for me.

      Onto the next run to see how much it has change. 😀

  26. LOL!!!
    Just like the 0z EURO Sat. morning showed over 2 feet of snow over 10 day period for a lot of SNE

  31. Don’t see much for Friday or the weekend.

    Maybe a weak but cold northern stream shortwave in a week or so?

    If you want more significant snow the best chance for a good coastal storm with cold air around – think on or about the 20th. That is getting to the time frame where things need to line up about perfect for significant snow storms in SNE.

    Ok off to prepare for 42″ of snow over the next 2 weeks.

      1. You know someone’s going to slyly say “models are showing the potential for wintry weather with significant accumulations possible”

        1. I don’t usually check “fake” weather sites much anymore but I’m sure they were all over the run that showed the heaviest accumulations and sounding the alarms.

  32. JPDave, Answering your question regarding red-winged blackbirds, they are ubiquitous in the Esplanade Park adjacent to the Charles (I think it’s because of the fireworks on the 4th – they want premium `seating’) and also in the Public Garden.

  33. NWS issued a Special Weather Statement for icing in northern and western areas. If there’s one thing worse than plain rain in winter, it’s ice…

  34. Good morning.

    Latest guidance still keeps system #1 and #2 South of our area, with #1 perhaps creeping a tad Northward. Euro still has about 5-6 inches of snow for the 14th/15th. 6Z GFS running lates. Still monitoring for sys #3.

    NWS talking about possible inverted trough as system #1 departs and then ocean effect snow showers on Saturday. we shall see.

    1. 6Z GFS has about 2-5 inches of snow across the area for the 14th. Looks like a change to rain about Boston S & E. need to monitor,

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