Tuesday Forecast

134 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Warm front crosses the region today with some areas of light rain. Pacific cold front follows it tonight and early Wednesday with a few rounds of rain showers including a few downpours. The air behind the Pacific cold front will be mild and as it partially clears for a while Wednesday we get a nice day out of it. A stronger cold front will come out of Canada and bring a few rain showers Wednesday evening and then back comes the cold air on a strong and gusty wind Thursday. Starting to sound a lot like last week isn’t it? Well, Friday, an Arctic front will approach and may kick off some snow showers, and Saturday looks like a day of mid winter cold – similar to last week…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of light rain, may briefly freeze on untreated surfaces before 9AM mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs 45-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. A few downpours possible. Temperatures steady 45-53. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers until mid morning, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 18-25. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Watching a storm system passing south of the region early in the period but still close enough to keep a close eye on it. A second system may come along mid period with a risk of some precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (MARCH 17-21)
Brief warm-up possible early in the period then colder again. A more important storm system is possible late in the period.

134 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. TK,

    I did not know that you had an older brother. My thoughts are with you as this must be a difficult day for you being the 20th anniversary of his passing. Hang in there, we are with you.

    1. I would like to echo Dave’s sentiments. I send you hugs and love and a day full of music that keeps your brother close.

  5. Okay folks, I need your help. I know March 20th/21st is two weeks away but what are the thoughts about a storm in that timeframe? We are scheduled to leave at midnight on March 21st to drive to South Carolina for my stepdaughters Army graduation. I realize nobody can give a definitive answer but what would you do if you were in my shoes?

    1. That’s a long way out there. It is also in the time frame TK is warning about.

      “Potentially” if all goes well you “could” be in between 2 systems.

      I would monitor the situation very carefully as it could get dicey.

      1. Thanks JPD. I am torn now between sticking with the plan to drive or book a flight. Of course, there is always a chance of flights being delayed too so I guess it is six of one half dozen of the other. Just my luck!

        1. That’s a long way out there. I’m not sure what I would do.

          I am sure TK will chime in and give you some solid advice.

  7. 12Z NAM wants to sneak the snow for Friday a little bit more North still, giving a moderate event to the South coast and “about” 1-3 inches up to the Boston area.
    This is a departure from the GFS and the EURO. Last time the NAM tried to do this
    at 72-84 hours, it was out to lunch so we shall see.

    In any case for completeness, here is the NAM surface and snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017030712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=078

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017030712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Additionally, if you look carefully at hour 84, you can pick out a little bit of an
    inverted trough like what was discussed by the NWS this morning:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017030712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    This “might” keep some light snow going Friday night into Saturday AM. Just another
    something to watch.

    1. Earlier discussion from NWS re: Friday/Saturday

      Friday into Saturday…Moderate Confidence.

      Latest trend in the guidance suggest that the surface low which will
      develop along a stationary front would remain just south of the
      region. However looking at the individual ensembles, appears to be
      enough clustering to suggest that system could wiggle a bit
      northward bringing snow to the region. Right now if this occurs,
      believe the south coast has the best shot of seeing any accumulating
      snow. But this will all depend on the exact track of the system.

      Great Lakes shortwave will help amplify the surface low as it moves
      into the Northern Atlantic. As this low exits the region, guidance
      is indicated the potential for an inverted trough which could
      linger snow showers through the day on Friday along the East Coast.

  8. It would not take that much of a shift north on the 12z NAM run to get that 3 plus inch snowfall into all of SNE.

    1. Do we have a trend here? or just a momentary hiccup? We’ll know soon enough. Let’s see what our friend the Euro says. Probably still suppressed
      to the South.

    1. Now we wait on the Euro which has consistently had a light to moderate
      event for Tuesday.

      If that doesn’t pan out, then our best bet until around the Equinox is
      Friday and that isn’t saying much. 😀

  13. Thanks TK. I’m not too impressed by any snow threats in the next 7 days right now. Cold and suppressed looks to be the way to go.

    Some light freezing rain here in Plymouth, NH this morning, temperatures hovering just below freezing. Not too big a deal though. The rain for today and tomorrow, what relatively little there will be of it, is needed. The last three weeks or so have been very dry across the region, and with this cold/dry period looming in front of us, we’re looking at a considerable loss of progress that we’ve gradually made on our long term drought these past few months. I believe TK mentioned that awhile back. Spring fire season could be nasty at this rate.

    1. Yup TK mentioned both. It is sure looking like cold and suppressed, however, the Friday system looks like it wants to sneak in here, at least to SNE. Not that it would be a biggie anyway. 😀

      One just never knows around here.

  15. Sue, do you know whether you will travel inland or closer to the coast? I’m thinking it is way too early to know if that would make a difference. We always liked the inland drive to SC when we could take it as it avoided major cities and was more relaxing. But there are some pretty high elevations inland as well. The coast doesn’t have the elevations but then it could be something traveling along the coast.

    Yes, I am rambling but just tossing out some variable that may not even matter in the long run!

    1. I am not sure of the route yet but your advice about heading inland sounds like a good option. I am hoping I am just being paranoid and we have sunny skies and not obstacles to deal with by the time of our departure. 🙂

      1. I don’t think it is paranoid. I think it is covering all of your bases. Always good to have a Plan B and C and D if necessary.

        I sure wish I were going too. My girls do as well. We have such special memories of our trips to SC.

        I’m so proud of your step-daughter!!!

        1. We would have loved to have you guys come along! The boys are off the wall excited for this trip. Kevin loves all things military so the fact that he gets to visit and Army base has him bursting at the seams.

          1. And his sister is Army…..I cannot begin to imagine how exciting this is for you and the boys, especially Kev.

            1. I bought the boys t-shirts that say “My sister wears combat boots. Army brother”. I figure they can wear them for family day on the base.

      2. Umm,

        In the event of a storm system with snow, the snow would be
        much more likely inland. I’d take the coastal route, if I were
        you. 😀

  16. Thanks all! It’s a hard day but I always choose to fill it with happy memories and his favorite music. 🙂

    1. Take care, TK. Music and happy memories are good ways to remember loved ones. My thoughts are with you and your family today.

  17. Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    Afternoon Euro moves towards other global models with first wave of winter weather. Light snow late week in Mid Atl/Northeast!

  18. Sue, with the way the medium and long range models have been, you could end up with perfect travel weather.

  20. Thanks JJ, you saved me a post, but then I am posting, am I not?

    Even though the Euro only brings a slight bit of Snow up this way, it is STILL
    a definite trend to the North. That makes 3 models.

    Let’s see about the CMC and UKMET.

    Hold on a moment.

    CMC, just a tic more to the North than previously.

    UKMET, difficult to tell, but it “appears” to be a bit more North.

    Interesting….

    1. Euro still has about 4 inches for the 13th/14th and also another system
      for the 17th that really looks interesting, with more behind that.

      It would seem that sooner or later, we get hit with one of these things.

  22. Some more tweets from meteorologist John Homenuk
    New England often struggles when blocking is stronger. Wait until things back off a bit. You’ll have your chance.

    Something tells me this third wave, with a Bering Sea-aided PNA spike and decaying high latitude blocking, may have some surprises in store.

    1. 3rd wave meaning Tuesday? I wish he would be more specific. I guess as long as we have the score card we know. 😀

      From what I can tell, it’s the one following Tuesday that may pack more
      of a punch? I dunno.

      All I can say is that the atmosphere appears to be loaded for snow.
      Will it be propelled towards us?

      I think at least one more good snow event before Winter shuts down, if not
      more than 1. I’d be happy with one of at least 7 inches at Boston to put
      them above average. I’d REALLY be happy if they got 2 storms of 13 inches
      each or 3 more averaging about 8-9 inches each to get up to my
      Season Snow guess. I’d say that is a LONG shot at best, however, Boston
      making their season average is well within reach. We shall see.

  24. This just in from Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 11m11 minutes ago

    Tricky times ahead. Looks like a light/mod snowfall Friday, maybe a close miss Sunday…best overall setup next Tuesday?

    Looks like John Homenuk meant Tuesday???

    The operational runs show a miss WELL to the South. There must be some evidence
    in the ensembles that say, not so fast, there is room for it to come up here.
    Let me look:

    Huh? here is the GFS ensemble with the low centers

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017030712/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png

    I dunno

    1. The NBC Boston mets have been touting Tuesday as the best day for awhile now. That is why I would like to see the other tv stations adopt 10-days. 😉

      1. I must be missing something because so far I see Tuesday
        as a Colossal Miss. Not to say that I won’t be watching for
        subtle changes.

        This far ahead, the 500 mb chart can sometimes look flatter than it actually becomes. Perhaps there is something very subtle that is beyond my abilities. I don’t know.

        I’d love to see TK, SAK and/or JMA discuss this a bit. 😀

        1. The Monday-Wednesday period look OK and have for a while. Too much keying on one day a week in advance. They need to stop doing that.

          The Friday-Sunday period has been a watcher for a while but the tendency is for things to be shunted. But you see a little shift today and suddenly “it’s coming”. Remember that song by the Who?

          Longer term, I’ve been interested in somewhere around the Equinox for a while now, but that’s as far as it goes right now. I just see hints that remind me of snow events of the past – just enough to make me take note and keep it in mind. So if anyone wants to know how many inches of snow we’re going to get on March 20, what time it starts and ends – then I tell you to invent a time machine and go check for yourself if it even does anything at all that day. 😉

  26. While I was at the CVS Pharmacy In West Roxbury on the VFW Parkway picking up a prescription, there were 2 people in front of me having a conversation. The one in
    front turned and he looked awfully familiar to me. When he had to give his name for
    his prescription, I immediately knew why he looked so familiar.

    It was David Brown, former channel 5 meteorologist and News Anchor.

    I always thought that he was great.

    He left channel 5 in 2013. Here is info:

    http://www.wcvb.com/article/meteorologist-reporter-david-brown-leaves-wcvb-tv/8177242

    I had know that he lived in the area somewhere, because I remember he being
    hospitalized at the Faulkner Hospital in Jamaica Plain with pneumonia some years
    ago.

    Any how, I was not able to speak with him as it would have been very rude
    to barge in on his conversation.

    1. Interesting, JPD. I do remember his name and his face. Although, I’m not sure I would have placed the face without the name either.

    1. Ah hah. That is the Euro Ensemble.
      But hey, a 1 in 5 chance does NOT make a snow storm. GEEZ!

      And, on that map, IF this thing is going South, WHY is there a lower chance
      South of the Boston Area? I SMELL A RAT.

      1. I should have mentioned that is the percentage for greater than 6 inches of snow next Tuesday.

        1. Yes, I could see that from the chart.

          I stand by my statement. 😀

          I’d like to see some movement Northward in the operational runs.

          We shall see. Certainly worth watching.

  28. TK, Sak a friend of mine is in meteorology and has been getting mixed answers about if he needs to go to grad school for a good job in the field or if an undergrad degree is fine. I would think at least a Masters??

    1. Matt,

      FWIW, by Nephew graduated from Plymouth State with a Degree in Meteorology. I do NOT know how his grades were, only that he was as big
      a weather enthusiast as I was/am. He interned at Channel 4 when Ed Carrol was there (His Mom, my wife’s Sister had Ed Carrol as a Student in Quincy. Small world eh). Even so, he just could not land a job and had to settle for some sort of computer job.

      It all depends. Grades matter. The presentation video matters and sorry to say but for an on air job, looks matter as well.

      My plan was for a Masters, but it never worked out that way.

      I had the chance to meet with Don Kent while I was still in High School.
      He told me to major in Math and Physics at the under graduate level and to pursue the Meteorology Degree in Graduate School. (To be fair, back then there really were not many, if any Schools, that offered Meteorology at the under Graduate level, not even MIT)

      That being said, Lyndon State, Plymouth State and U. Mass Lowell all offer
      excellent meteorology programs. If one does well with their studies, one should be able to land a job in the field.

      Sorry for all of the rambling on here, but I just wanted to respond honestly
      to your post. Yes I am Not TK or SAK. Not by a long shot, but I do believe
      I am at least qualified to respond. Hope you didn’t mind.

        1. Hmm, well it is a good bet that your Mom knows my wife’s Sister. 😀

          Ask her if she knew Mary Moloney

    2. It would depend on specifically what the friend is looking for longer term. It can’t hurt to get a masters, but it’s not necessary. A B.S. will do just fine. Get into a position and prove yourself and you can go up from there.

  29. JPDave, That’s a nice, chance encounter you described with David Brown.

    My mother (and I) ran a homestay placement service – finding temporary housing for (mostly) international visitors who needed to work on their English. One of the host families turned out to be Mark Rosenthal and his wife. My mother had many conversations with him about many different things, including weather. When I worked in the business I got a chance to talk to Mark about weather. He’s an amiable guy. Quirky, but in a nice way.

    1. Thanks JP Dave for sharing your experience with David Brown. It seems a lot longer ago than 2013 since he left Channel 5. 🙂

    2. Cool. Thanks for Sharing. I always liked Mark Rosenthal.

      My daughter and SIL used to live in Newton and ran into him all of the time. 😀

    1. As I stated elsewhere on the net today – the TV guys were going to react to one NAM run and suddenly the forecast is different. They do this over, and over, and over, and over. And never learn.

  33. Interesting period coming up. Cold surges appear likely to invade New England as they did last weekend. Several coastal lows appear likely to develop, one or two (or more) of which may impact us. Though relatively mild, clearly the 2016-2017 winter is not a repeat of 2011-2012. Remember March of 2012. There was some incredible warmth around the middle of the month. I do believe it got `cold’ at the end of the month, but overall March was like the rest of the winter: unusually mild.

    1. Agree. Now can we get one or 2 to deliver? OR will it be one tease after another?
      Time will tell. 😀

      As I said above somewhere, I’d like to see at least one more with at least
      7 inches for Boston. I’m ready for Spring after that, but I don’t think I
      get to decide. 😀 😀 😀

    2. Kinda goes along with my March outlook of colder than normal overall, drier than normal overall, but some late snow events.

      1. Not for one second did I think so.

        Let’s see IF he changes his tune even by the 6Pm broadcast. 😀

  35. Nope. Weak lack of moisture northern stream shortwaves of pacific origin without deep cold don’t produce that kind of daytime snow in March in SNE.

  37. The Eric Fisher snow map looks way off to me. I’m not sure where he is getting this from.

  38. Both Bernie & DT have high stakes forecasts out there regarding the Sunday system. This will be interesting.

  40. I have good confidence in weak and south Friday and Sunday. Less confidence for next Tuesday but think on the weak and warm side. It is around the 20th that I am thinking might be the time cold and substantive moisture meet up. Long ways off…

    1. Agree. Agree. Not sure (see below). Agree.

      Regarding the system that has shown up in the 14th, or 13th/14th time frame. I’m not sure they have this figured out. In fact I’m pretty sure they do not. It may actually end up 2 separate and fairly weak systems in the 13th to 15th period. The energy is so far away.

      And regarding the 20th zone…nothing specific but the overall pattern is potentially there.

      1. I was beyond being pretty general, but I think you are on to something with weak x 2 around the 14th.

        1. We shall see. As always, I very greatly admire your knowledge and contribution here!

          1. Ahhh,,thanks….Not convinced on too much other than Friday and probably Sunday, but I am pretty sure that this benign and dry pattern has pros and non-pros finding flakes that are not there.

  41. I got the impression that Eric will be putting actual numbers on his snow map tonight at 11. He is quite bullish the system will continue to trend north with time.

    Of course all the tv mets have snowflakes aplenty for Tuesday!

  44. So, let me get this straight …….

    Most of meteorological winter was much warmer than normal. It culminated in a 68F, 73F and 69F stretch in February.

    And now, getting towards the first third of March and possible continuing for a while, it’s going to be very cold and way below normal.

    This is the one part of New England that drives me nuts. Even in a warm winter, it seems to last forever. I still feel like I’m serving my winter sentence even in a warm winter from November to February because it’s so dark much of the day.

    Aaaaarrrrrgggghhhhhhh !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I think post March 22nd-25th we will start to see more frequent warm shots mixed with cold shots then trending to some well above average periods in April.

      1. Once again we agree. I was just thinking straight up April but we could sneak in a warm shot at the end of March…maybe not like 1998 though. 😉

        2. 89 at my house one of those days in march that year.
          I think even 88 or 89 at the airport.

    2. March can be that month that ends winter, or allows winter to finally show up. This year, its gonna show up on occasion 😉

  45. Tom, What you’re saying is true. It’s also a common complaint from visitors to this area who live here for extended periods of time. You can indeed have a mild winter that teases you into thinking spring is here. The buds and birds may even oblige. But, in reality spring teases are often ephemeral. March, April, and May (and even early June, especially in coastal areas) tend to produce their fair share of raw, dismal days that make you wonder about that 70F degree day in February. Someone mentioned 1998. I think you can also throw 1997 into the mix (that was a mild winter in spite of the April Fool’s blizzard). And recently we’ve had some mild winters followed by extended periods of spring hiccups. At the same time it should be said that we’ve also had several glorious springs, including 2014 and 2016.

    1. Agreed 100%.

      I can certainly understand cold shots that last a couple days and even a substantial snowfall or 2.

      I just would rather not have a long stretch of consecutive days that are 35F or below for high temps. In January or February, I can more handle it, but not as we get close to the equinox. I think seeing Harvey’s 7 day set me off tonight, because starting Saturday, the high temps were 25F, 32F, 35F and 35F with a chance of snow Tuesday. 🙂 🙁

  46. And there’s plenty of brutal, arctic air in northernmost, central Canada. It’s currently 40F to 50F below in the arctic circle of central Canada, perhaps the coldest it’s been up there this cold season.

  47. C’mon, it’s new england. This crap happens.
    Even I can deal with it and that is saying something.

    1. except this is now at least 3 consecutive runs, so we are beginning to get some consistency. Also the euro and cmc have this event, so the event looks reasonably likely, however, the problem will be the rain snow line and this far out we cannot determine that in any way shape or form< if the storm even materializes.

  51. 16z gfs continues the theme for both friday and tuesday.
    friday south, tues a monster.

    tues snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017030806&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=195

    It should be noted that the Euro and CMC have a warmer solution for tuesday with
    much rain involved and drastically reduced snow totals.

    euro about 4 inches coast to 7 or 8 inland. cmc sharp cut off around boston with 8 or 9 inches and practically nothing to the south and east.

    here is 6z nam for friday.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017030806&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    euro, gfs and cmc have zilch for friday, so the Nam is flying solo and we know what that means. usually means say good-bye to the snow for friday.

  53. GFS, ECMWF, CMC snow maps will be useless for several more days regarding the threat next week, in a practical sense.

    For fun, go for it! 😛

Comments are closed.