Wednesday Forecast

142 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)
Southern New England will sit in between storms today but in this break zone there is no blue sky and sunshine, just cloudy and damp weather with a light wind off the Atlantic. The next low pressure system moves rapidly northeastward into the Great Lakes Thursday with a ribbon of rain and thunderstorms coming into New England from the Southwest Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure area cuts off and then drifts eastward across the region through Saturday with lingering unsettled weather. High pressure moves in by Sunday with very nice weather.
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Isolated rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind light NE to E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind light E to SE.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms especially late morning and afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH southeastern MA, higher gusts late in the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms evening with heavy rain possible, tapering off to scattered lighter showers overnight. Temperature rise to 47-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH southeastern MA, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 47-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain/mix showers mainly early. Lows 33-40. Highs 40-47.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-43. Highs 50-58.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)
Dry, much warmer April 10-11. Risk of some unsettled weather at times and a cooling trend April 12-14, but low confidence on this portion of forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)
Low confidence in how things go at this time but leaning toward a drier pattern with a cool start and a warmer finish.

142 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. Had a bit of a surprise upon waking up this morning with a fresh coating of snow on the ground here in Plymouth, NH. More than a coating actually, at least an inch, maybe two, on almost a quarter inch melted. Will go away very quickly though.

  6. Morning everyone. Thanks for the post as always TK.

    That said, since it went unnoticed yesterday I want to pose a question that was brought up yesterday: I was curious who else feels new England had “gone soft” with weather related school decisions and why?

    1. I honestly do not have any strong feelings one way or the other.
      I went to grade school during the 50s and I think we had about as many
      school closings then as we have now. Not growing up in the City, I cannot
      compare my experiences with what they City did then and now.

      I do, however, get the sense that at least Boston is far more sensitive now
      than in the past. Going soft? OR being extra cautious in the interest
      of child safety? That is the question.

      Therefore upon further reflection, NO I do not think we have gone soft.

    2. I believe it was Tom who had an excellent response to this a couple of weeks ago.

      I wondered whether Wx intended to imply he thought we had gone soft or whether he placed it in quotes because others believe we have. Either way, no, I do not. We cannot base decisions on what we did in the past since the past is vastly different. I’ll stick by my belief that we have far too much Monday morning quarterbacking when it comes to critiquing the jobs/decisions of others. Let those who know do their job. If they do not do it well, act appropriately.

      Ya knew you’d get me eventually with a discussion question, didn’t you Dr S? 😉

      Not sure there isn’t anything I wouldn’t debate if given the opportunity. Great way to learn 🙂

      1. “Gone soft” was in quotes only because that’s the perception I think many have of New Englanders now in the school closings regard. I take no position on it, was only posing a discussion question 🙂

        1. Thank you, WxWatcher. I pretty much knew that just because I feel I pretty much know you but appreciate the clarification. And no stand? But you posed the question 😉

          Seriously, though, would love to hear a view from a younger generation.

          Before you answer, I will need to explain that I walked 23 miles through blizzards back in my day….uphill in both directions 🙂 😉

    3. Soft ….. Nope.

      Soft might be having a thought on how to do something (like a school cancellation due to weather) and then not doing it that way because your too concerned about what everyone else is going to think.

    4. It’s a broader cultural shift of risk aversion that has tightened its grip on all American life, business and culture for about a generation now.

      1. Thank you, JPD. I’ll be watching your links closely this am. Just tried to call my SIL but she is either still asleep or out. I’m guessing out.

  8. Thank you, JPD. SIL is just southwest of Atlanta in College Park.

    Once this system moves through, is that expected to be all for the day? Or perhaps they expect more to develop?

    1. Vicki, hard to say. I can tell you that the current tornado watch is
      valid until NOON Central or 1PM Eastern Daylight Savings Time.

      Looking at radar, there “appears” to be the threat of storms all day, but
      perhaps not tornadic??? Will continue to monitor.

  11. Just wanted to put out a possible issue with the Pivotal Website. Specifically the CFS model section. Earlier in the day I tried to check some of the long range models on the CFS section and my browser screens all started jumping up and down. I shut down the browser and then tried again later. The same thing happened and then when I shut down the browser again one of the tabs had that phony Microsoft Service “Your Computer Has Been Infected” pop up. I shut down the browser again and reopened. Everything seems fine but I’m running a Norton Scan and then will run a scan using Malware Bytes. Just wanted to let people know there may or may not be a problem with Pivotal site.

  12. Pretty juicy line of storms beginning to move through the Atlanta area.
    So far not even a severe thunderstorm warning.

  13. As to whether New England has gone “soft” as far as school cancellations I say absolutely NOT. In Boston, the sidewalks the day after a snowstorm are in many cases, impassible or extremely icy. Snow plows pile up giant mounds of snow at intersections even when snow totals are just modest which leaves no way for a pedestrian to cross a street or to get onto the sidewalk. Not to mention that property owners and businesses do various methods of removing their snow and/or ice. Some do excellent while others a half done job and still some not at all in spite of the threat of fines. You could walk for a few houses on a sidewalk with no problem then come to a sidewalk where little or no shoveling had been done and have to walk in the street.

    While it is the responsibility of home owners to remove as much snow/ice as possible, it would be nice if the city keep intersections and bus stops cleared as well. It usually takes days after to actuall get to see an intersection again.

    AFAIC BPS made the correct decisions this winter in adding additional snow days. Better to go to school late June then a child maybe hurt for the rest of the school year.

    1. Then we need to start expecting and demanding more from our cities re: snow removal. Boston is a major New England hub and should be used to receiving significant snow year after year yet we still cant figure out how to remove snow so it doesn’t pose a danger to our children days later? That’s where I have an issue.

  14. There seems to be a misconception that I think Sunday is going to be a nasty day going back to yesterday.

    Not true. I made a reference to not completely trusting a sunny day. There may be some diurnal cloudiness. Not sure yet.

  15. Wonderful comment, Philip. And it opens up at least two more topics. Why do folks have to be fined in order to clear their own sidewalk which should be a given? Do we create a good part of the reason schools need to be cancelled a second, etc. day?

    1. Another reason to close schools for a second day is the schools themselves. I live down the street from two elementary schools and the schoolyard itself and adjacent sidewalks are disgraceful following a storm. In many cases, not much better than the lazy, thoughtless home owners.

      1. This is not isolated to the city of Boston or any other larger city. The same can be said for many towns regardless of how small. My town in particular does a historically horrible job with sidewalks. The equipment they use to remove the snow is basically worthless and leaves the sidewalks in worse shape than before.

        1. I think people should be clearing their sidewalks in most cases. In and around town centers, I understand it is the responsibility of the merchants and the town. Away from the school, it should be the responsibility of the homeowner.

          This has changed since I was young. There was never any question that you cleared your sidewalk. Those in our neighborhood with sidewalks clear theirs…one gentleman in particular.

        1. I think the ground will have dried up considerably by Tuesday after 3+ days without any real rain. I would be surprised if there are not some 80 degree readings in SNE on Tuesday.

          Euro 850mb temps look very warm as well.

        2. Oddly, after the slush pond in our yard last Saturday, it was dry by Sunday. Same at daughter’s house. But we have sandy soil.

        1. Any of this happening near Augusta? I know the Masters doesn’t start until tomorrow but hopefully this doesn’t leave the course in bad shape

          1. ALL activities at Augusta were halted about an hour ago. Whole course shut down for the day.
            All patrons were sent home.

  18. “Going Soft” I do agree that the closings are more prevalent these days mostly due to parents driving their kids to school instead of taking the bus. The parents don’t want to drive in the snow, although most have all wheel drive, so they put pressure on the schools to close. I also think that a lot of parents work from home now and do not need to go into work so there is not a lot of running around trying to find a sitter on snow days. This is just my humble opinion of course.

    1. Hi Merlin. Would you like your name added to the list indicating where we are all reporting from?

  19. I see two Tornado warnings in GA and one in SC at the moment. As I type, the one in SC may have expired.

  20. in response of school cancelations and new englanders becoming soft. You can weed out those born here and those who grew up somewhere else. Schools old a larger population than they use too. Also schools have been targeted by lawsuits because people hurt themselfs

    1. I’m not sure how the larger population fits into this but I do agree with the lawsuits from injury. People are very lawsuit happy if something were to happen on school property. I also think it has a lot to do with social media, aka more ways for people to cause a stink and voice their opinions and displeasure. I think school districts would rather avoid the conflict completely, which is totally understandable. But i wonder if it weren’t for that would the schools still close.

      1. Back in the early 1990s was, as I’ve said here, the first time schools were closed for more than a single day that I recall. There wasn’t social media then. It may have some influence. I don’t believe a whole lot.

        It is more the fact that there are requirements to make sure sidewalks are cleared within one mile of every school for walkers as well of course as streets being cleared. Larger towns/cities have more trouble with that.

        Interesting that Merlin sees parents pressuring schools to close and others see parents pressuring them to remain open.

  21. A couple years or so ago, I was on my bus on my way to work, weeks after a snowstorm and the bus was sitting in traffic with still piles everywhere and while I was waiting for the bus to arrive at my stop, the driver started a conversation and told me that in the Canadian cities the streets soon after a storm are cleaned up almost immediately as well as the sidewalks and bus stops. Perhaps U.S. Mayors should take a trip to Canada and get some ideas on snow removal?

    1. Won’t happen. It costs too much.

      BUT you will note that Boston was able to clean up Bolyston Street
      2 years ago for the Pats Parade. Funny isn’t it?

      I remember headed to Brodie Mt. in the Berkshires one Winter long ago, and
      the City of Pittsfield was removing snow like crazy. They had a machine with
      sort of a conveyor belt (almost what they use for asphalt removal) that was
      scooping up the snow and depositing into the back of a huge 10 Wheeler
      dump truck to be carted off somewhere. Boston would literally have do to
      this on every street in the City.

      Some strategic streets and location, but the whole City is NEVER going to happen. NEVER.

      1. We used to have the conveyor belt type machines in Belmont when I was very young. I was fascinated by them. They would run the snow up and then it would empty into a dump truck.

    2. You’ll find the same in states just north of us. I think the difference is that they are in a higher snow area so are better prepared. Having the same amount of equipment, would mean a lot of money spent that might never be justified. Also, I wonder what the population is.

  22. Was just watching some of the reports of tornadic activity in GA. One report was from Goodman where an elementary school suffered severe damage.

    1. Yikes. Seems we were just discussing this type of situation.
      BUT, didn’t most if not the whole state cancel school for today?

      What time did this occur? Who knows what might have been had they
      not cancelled school.

      Seems like a wise decision to me.

      1. GA has spring break this week. Atlanta area at least and my SIL thought the state. I don’t recall if WxWatcher mentioned which areas were closing schools. I’m assuming another state.

        And yes, we were discussing it. And it verified my belief that I’d rather have my kids with me and head to a shelter as a family if I were in an unsafe home.

              1. Radar

                https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=JGX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.13005671077504724&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=4.186046511627865&centery=-458.6918604651164&transx=-395.81395348837214&transy=-698.6918604651164&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24857068&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

                Radial velocity

                https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=JGX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0S&frame=0&scale=0.13005671077504724&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=4.186046511627865&centery=-458.6918604651164&transx=-395.81395348837214&transy=-698.6918604651164&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24857069&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. Here is video of storm relative radial velocity
      Am I missing something here? This looks like it might be serious

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=JGX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0S&frame=0&scale=0.2326086956521739&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=45.32710280373817&centery=177.6635514018692&transx=-354.67289719626183&transy=-62.3364485981308&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=24857073&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. I just did a direction map of Macon to Atlanta and along 75 there are 19 traffic incidents – not sure if that means accidents. Odd.

  27. Yes there is something trying to get going there. I’m in touch with her when she has moments to message me. She’s with a small team this time (not solo) so I’m just playing a support role versus being her virtual “co-pilot” which I have done twice in the last couple months.

    1. Best of luck to her and her team and to you as well coach.

      I hope she safely catches one that causes no injuries any other parties.

    2. How much does the rotation need to pick up on radar for a warning.
      Seems it is as High as the Revere one here a few years ago, perhaps just
      not tight enough yet?????

  28. This is one of the storms that is severe warned.

    At 429 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Workmore, or 11
    miles south of McRae, moving northeast at 35 mph.

    HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
    roofs, siding, and trees.

    Locations impacted include…
    McRae, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Helena, Lumber City, Glenwood,
    Milan, Uvalda, Ailey, Scotland, Chauncey, Higgston, Alston,
    Jacksonville, Towns, Horse Creek Wma, Spring Hill, McNatt Falls and
    Jay Bird Springs.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
    from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
    basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

    For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
    building.

    2. Well, on my radarscope display, it has the little red box just
      East of Swainsboro and over Portal.

        2. The rotation is there usually long before it becomes serious enough to be warned. The majority of meso-cyclones will never require tornado warnings.

          1. I figured that was the case.
            To this untrained eye, the rotation didn’t
            appear any tighter when they finally did warn
            the storm. That is my confusion.

            1. In my case, you say you see rotation and I react. I’m not waiting an extra 15-20 minutes to seewhat happens. I’ve seen you be right too many times. And I’m a complete coward when it comes to tornados

        1. She gets a ton and is a master editor and her documentary skills are excessive for her age. Overly impressive.

      1. Wow! That thing is RIPPING along at 45 mph.
        This sounds like a tough one to chase and perhaps to avoid for some.

        Has Emily confirmed a tornado on the ground?

        Any word on size and/or strength?

        thanks

  31. Tornado watch just went up again in College Park (just SW of Atlanta) so assume maybe for Atlanta also. It had been dropped a bit ago.

  32. The GFS is very inconsistent right now and I’d use it with a large salt supply, if at all.

    I’ve seen it in its medium range confusion, for Saturday April 15, go from overcast/rain/drizzle, to cool/dry/breezy, to accumulating snow, to cool/dry/breezy, to wet and cool, to very warm and dry, just over the last few days.

        1. Tracking a supercell to their west, but it is still a ways off and has time to shift track or weaken. Tornado warning still on it at this point.

          1. Thanks, TK. I think it extends to about 50 miles west of them. Has been moving due east but I sure hope you are right that it dies down or shifts. I just spoke to her. She has pillow and blankets by door to head to center of bottom floor in her apartment complex. No basement. No storm cellar.

            1. Cannot tell you how much better I feel having you all watching. Is Emily still in swainsboro area? And safe?

  35. Vicki, despite the fact that the storm is west of them and moving east, I am of the opinion that this cell will become somewhat of a right-mover and the mesocyclone (current or possibly redeveloped) will pass safely SOUTH of College Park. They may still get some rain/hail from the storm itself, depending on its size and orientation at that point. Still cannot rule out damaging wind completely though.

  36. The cell may actually split in 2. Right-moving portion (tornadic or at least rotation) goes south of College Park and left-moving half (non tornadic) could shift north of them. Not 100% sure this takes place but it’s a valid possibility.

    As for Emily, going to check in with her now.

    1. Thank you again. Warning expired. I thought it looked to be less intense but sure could redevelop.

      If Jen were not right there I would find this absolutely fascinating. Saying Your skills in reading this are impressive is a huge understatement

      1. Emily remains in my thoughts and prayers. If you have a minute would love to know how she is and where

  37. My sister in law has asked me to tell you how appreciative she is. And she truly means it. Thanks from me also

      1. Look at the radar…although that is more for others than you, TK, since I suspect you are

        It is beginning to split in two. I literally have goosebumps. You are amazing.

      2. And yes you are always glad to help. But it is so much more than that. I’m trying to think of what to compare whw to but am falling short. A ship with a captain who is capable of steering through any storm. But who is surrounded by very capable and talented first first mates who he encourages to shine. And then deck hands who he mentors and encourages as well.

        You can tell adrenaline has been my friend today. But even as I wax poetic…..it really is true.

  38. I was watching the CBS Evening News and there was a business in GA that was totally destroyed. The employer sent his workers home 90 minutes earlier.

    I will never, ever second-guess a school district around here for an early dismissal or delay for snow or ice concerns here on this blog again. If I should forget, remind me of this post! 🙂

    1. I don’t know if you saw my post earlier that a grammar school was badly damaged. No children inside from what I understand. It is hard not to second guess, Philip, but wise and impressive to make the comment you just made.

  41. You can tell we in the midst of a pattern transition I have watched the ECWMF and GFS go in 30 different directions over the last 5 days for the period 4/7-4/17. Their ensemble means are about equally useless at the moment too, because the means are being tossed all over the place by the wild swings of the individual members.

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