Thursday Forecast

175 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)
The next and last in a series of storms will move northeastward into the Great Lakes and send waves of rain into southern New England today. The remains of this low will drift eastward across the region Friday into Saturday with some lingering unsettled weather. Then things change as high pressure moves in Sunday-Monday with fair weather and a warm-up as winds eventually shift to southwest.
TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms especially late morning and afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH southeastern MA, higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms with heavy rain possible. Breaking clouds with isolated rain showers overnight. Temperature rise to 47-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH southeastern MA, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 47-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated rain/mix showers mainly early. Lows 33-40. Highs 40-47.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-43. Highs 50-58.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Highs 50-58 South Coast except 45-50 Nantucket, 59-68 elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)
Dry and warm April 11 through watch for a possible back-door cold front by late. Some unsettled weather at times April 12-13 and still mild to seasonable should be followed by drier/cooler weather at the end of the period, though confidence remains somewhat low for this period of time.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)
Continued low confidence in how things go at this time but leaning toward a drier pattern with a cool start and a warmer finish.

175 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    Here is the evolution of the tue-wed forecast from NECN/WBTS (someone on reddit tried to insinuate that news stations can’t forecast beyond a day and that they said this week would be sunny when it is rainy. I made this based on my forecast collection.)

    http://imgur.com/5hPMDCP

    1. Crazy what people don’t see, how they interpret what they do see and then what they remember thinking they saw. I was thinking the other day that your compilation would be a great reminder.

    2. This is amazing stuff you are putting together and this is the most interesting
      take so far. I absolutely love this.

      How did 4 & 5 do with the same presentation?

      Many thanks

  4. I read that today is the 35th Anniversary of a Nor’easter in the Boston area. IIRC this was a real snowstorm by any measurement. Heavy snow , high winds and temps in 20’s.

      1. I wouldn’t call it “Fluffy” snow. I was out in the height of that
        storm and I walked a mile in it as well. I also shoveled it.
        I will say it was dry snow as opposed to the wet stuff. Fluffy?
        NOPE. I’d call it a heavy dense powder. Now Tk can say I’m full of crap. 😀

  5. Happy that all of the WHW community friends and family fared well yesterday
    with the tornadoes in Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. I checked in a few times
    last evening but was not able to post.

      1. 😀 took me about 30 seconds before I figured out what
        the vlb was. 😀 😀 😀

  8. The good stuff is here.

    I am wondering IF the 1st slug gets out of here to give a break before the
    next slug that would allow the Sox to squeeze the game in????
    It would be awfully wet. I would think it best to POSTPONE today’s game.

    We shall see what they do.

      1. Not going to happen. Pittsburg has to leave town.

        I just looked for word on the game. No news yet.

        1. Too bad. They won’t get it in otherwise. 50-70MPH forward speed on today’s stuff.

          1. I figured. Game is scheduled for 1:35PM.

            Too bad it weren’t a night game, then there might
            have been a chance. 😀

  10. Hmmm

    I just compared the EURO high temperature grids for next week with the
    GFS and the CMC. GFS and CMC have a couple of days in the 70s, while
    Euro CAPS the High temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

    NOW we KNOW which one is closer to reality, DON’T WE??????????????????

          1. Yeah, I presumed that.

            This is NOT the 1st time there has been a major discrepancy with my service. I guess it is time to CANCEL that service. 😀

            I will write to the service provider first to see what he has to say. I will post the response here, should I even get one.

            Cheers

            1. Given that the 850mb temps on the Euro are +12 to +14 on Monday and +14 to +16 on Tuesday, the WeatherBell maps make perfect sense.

              Forecasting tip – using the 850 mb temps, with full sunshine, you can add about 10-15C (depending on the time of year), and get your approximate surface temperature. Obviously cloud cover lowers that.

              1. Yup, AM aware. I trusted the maps and did not investigate further.

                Email has been sent to my
                service provider. I shall share what he has to say, presuming he even answers me.

                Thanks

  12. Bill Belichick reportedly received a subpoena to testify in the ongoing Aaron Hernandez double murder trial and skipped it, I think he could be in alot of legal trouble if this is correct, I just heard it on the news.

    1. He was on a potential witness list for the defense, there’s no confirmation he was ever issued a subpoena. Also, since the defense has rested already, it doesn’t matter any more anyways. He’s in no trouble at all.

      1. thanks for the clarification sak I just heard the last piece of it, so did not hear the whole thing

  13. Day late and a dollar short on this one but in answer to yesterday’s poll re: have we gone SOFT? – as the working mom of a first grader I say – maybe we have but if so maybe it’s a good thing.

    When I was growing up people didn’t wear seat belts, it felt like everyone smoked, the superfund site in Concord was cranking as Starmet, and gym class was Lord of the Flies. Basically I think anything that is a little more evolved and potentially keeps our kids safer, is a good thing. Traffic is way, way up from what it was when I was little, cars go faster, drivers text and drive, everyone is rushing, and the ability for families to survive economically with a stay at home parent is slim to none so most families daily lives are stressful and hectic.

    I hope that when schools are closed, and especially when the governor says explicitly to stay off the roads, it may also temporarily alleviate some of this ongoing stress and pressure on working parents and maybe allow them to stay home with a valid excuse. I say this as a completely f/t workaholic mom, so the opposite of judgment of anyone, but honestly what is so important that it cannot possibly wait one day while we go make a snow fort with our kids? Our entire lives have sped up so much that a snow day now and then can serve as a nice respite.

    1. gym class should not be called gym class if they do not do dodgeball or capture the flag/cover the cones.

      1. Lol! My favorite was full contact floor hockey before goggles. But actually I was referring to that old team captains/picking thing where the non athletic kids would be reminded of that fact on a weekly basis in a slow-motion, public forum. From what I’ve heard that doesn’t happen anymore.

        1. And it was always the same two kids who were “captains” every time. They each picked the same kids every time…..etc etc

        2. I honestly think the captains picking thing is a good thing. It gave me a chip on my shoulder when I was picked towards the end. Its kind of like tom brady being picked in the 6 round. I started to find by the end of middle school gym because it gone to what ever number you have is the team you are on kids do not want to play. Unless its recess in which case we did the number thing all the time as it was our joice.

    2. Well said Mama Mia and I agree 100%. Of course this is also coming from another f/t workaholic mom that spends every non-working hour with my children.

  14. SPC has added a marginal risk for areas south of the Pike for the storm potential later today. It looks like hail potential is the only category they’ve upgraded us because of, but I’d imagine isolated wind damage is also possible in any stronger storms.

  15. Hey Vicki, yes please add me to your map. I don’t make many comments but do read the posts each day. I’m in Downtown Hingham if that helps and it’s raining cats and dogs here and I stepped in a Poodle on my way in. Happy day!

    2. Haha…..my dad used to tell us that when we were kids. I laughed just as loudly now as an adult.

  17. Poured earlier here in Sudbury. Quiet for the time being. Husband had eye surgery on Tues. due to retinal detachment so have been very busy helping him and lots of errands. Glanced through blog – glad everyone is safe down south where there were tornado warnings. Would like to see a sunny, warm day – looks like nxt. wk. Can’t believe it will reach 80; but we’ll see. This rain is good – helps drought some, I hope.

  18. .62 so far with a balmy 38.8 degrees.

    And seriously, SAK, switch to the vlb and you will not have to question, interpret or wonder :). It is clear, forthright and always tells it like it is…or at least as it sees it to be.

  19. Would anyone else like his or her name and location added to the list I’m putting together?

    I think we have around 40 names. Pretty impressive family you have put together here, TK!!

  20. For all who helped keep me calm yesterday, this is a message my sister in law sent to me on FB.

    Vicki: first,I wish to extend my thanks to you personally,and also to your entrepôt group of weather bloggers for your updates,assistance and help during our stormy weather yesterday. I so appreciated all your efforts.thank you all. Today,we have part sun,part cloud,and 25-35mph winds,with a wind advisory until 10pm tonight.

  21. Here are 2 responses I received from my services. It explains much.

    #1.
    David,

    The data reported comes directly from ECMWF. The ECMWF organization pushes us the data files onto our server themself.

    Keep in mind, as the label says the 24 hour high temperatures are an estimate. We simply take the temperatures from ECMWF in the periods we have available and add 3 degrees to it. The temperatures for those days, that far out, are available at 18z and 00z, as seen in our tables.

    If the temperature jumps up 10 degrees in the 3 hour period between 18 and 21z (where we don’t have data), then so-be-it. But I’d like to see a data comparison before I think there’s anything wrong with the data we’re reporting.

    Regards,

    Andrew Revering
    Convective Development, Inc.
    dba F5Weather
    http://www.f5weather.com/

    #2. follow-up correction

    Correction… the data we have is only for 12z and 00z those days…. that makes it more likely that the temperature jumps up that much more prior to 00z.

    In the next couple days our temporal resolution will increase to include temperatures at 18z.

    Andrew Revering
    Convective Development, Inc.
    dba F5Weather
    http://www.f5weather.com/

    So I guess I should not be making assumptions about data I see.
    You know the old saying When one assumes, one makes and Ass out of u and me!

    Oh well, live and learn.

    I wonder how Weather Bell comes up with their high temperature maps?
    Obviously in a far Superior way.

    SAK, he is actually asking for the data that shows the discrepancy.
    I cannot provide him with your Weather Bell maps as that would could present a problem. However, at the same time if this could present a chance for them to
    improve the product, I’d love to present him with something.

    Any thoughts? Sak? anyone?

    Many thanks

    1. I had always wondered why the eurowx.com high temperature maps seemed so low. If they are calculated only off 12z and 0z (i.e. early morning and early evening) then of course they are going to be way off! What were they thinking? Even if he starts getting the 18z data, it will still be a little off on the 24 hour highs (but much closer then what it is showing today).

      I don’t see any reason why you couldnt send him a screenshot of the weatherbell map as a comparison. These maps are all over the internet and social media.

      2. Actually, the only Euro data that is freely available is SLP, 850, and 500 mb. Technically, I’m not even supposed to be sharing the other data, as that is a violation of the ECMWF policies, and WeatherBell can technically terminate my subscription for doing so.

        The reason WeatherBell has that data is they pay for a full license, which includes all data from the ECMWF every 6 hours out to 10 days. These licenses cost over $200K per year. That’s why you have to pay sites to get the data – they pay an arm and a leg to get it in the 1st place, and pass that cost onto their subscribers. I pay $24.95 a month for WeatherBell and have never regretted it.

        1. I knew it was something along those lines.
          It looks like my provider pays for some, but not all.

          Thanks for the input.

  22. Not sure if anyone has been following this story, but incredible, epic snow amounts have fallen in Gander, Newfoundland this winter, culminating with two massive nor’easters this past week alone that dropped 55″ of snow. These were the April Fools Day storm that hit us Saturday and the rain storm Tuesday.

    They already had 45″ of snow on the ground BEFORE these storms hit and current snow depth at the airport is 95″ which has broken an all-time record even for them (a town that is used to a lot of big noreasters)

    Link to article and photos from the Washington Post:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/04/06/take-a-gander-95-inches-of-snow-buries-newfoundland-town-photos/?utm_term=.208136c7b7b4

    You Tube video driving down a neighborhood street after the latest storm:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHX-N6H-OvI&feature=youtu.be

    2. So, back door cold fronts in New England are a guarantee in New England through July 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  23. These waves of rain are potent today.

    Perhaps a longer lasting band about to reach the south coast.

    Must be some decent cloud tops as its going from bright to dark frequently.

    1. That punk should have received more, like 4 games, including the
      1st 2 playoff games. He has a history.

      1. Easy there JP. He’s made some stupid mistakes. I wouldn’t say he’s a punk . Him being out could end up costing them a bad seed if they loose as he’s there hottest player .

        1. For the record the league suspension was the right call as I was certain that’s what he was getting the last two regular games . Tonight is an extremely tough game as the bruins just fall to Ottawa.

        2. I just call it as I see it. I am SICK and TIRED of his antics!! Yes, he is a good player, but his extra curricular activities NEED to STOP.

          I have zero tolerance for that kind of bullshit. Just play the damn game.

  26. Someone posted something about today being the 35th anniversary of an April
    blizzard. Here is something my son posted this afternoon:

    This storm http://www.wcvb.com/…/35-years-ago-noreaster-dumped…/9239707 that dumped 13 inches of snow on Boston 35 years ago today led to this snow bunny being built by me and my neighbor and likely our folks a few days later on my birthday (I was only 4)…

    https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/10011907_10201956156813252_7824682164589502350_o.jpg?oh=b55e3538930bf8ea1d1c62c57e3ef309&oe=59988989

    My son is the one of the left. 😀

  29. Interesting discussion about the models above. Dave, kudos for writing and kudos to them for getting right back to you. I’m impressed.

    My thoughts, based on the discussion, is that I may have to begin charging for the vlb information. I believe $7.00/month is a fair price. Anyone want to sign up?

  30. On a very sad note…Don Rickles passed away from kidney failure at 90.

    Lots of laughing in heaven tonight!

  31. .086 inch at home in JP.

    Looks like that’s it for the rain for the time being.

    It looks like more might come in later, but not sure if it does or stays to the West.

  32. NWS is at it again as they have used the “T” word. Have a look. I’ll highlight the
    area in bold text.

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    Heavier showers and isold thunder lifting north across SNE with
    next area of showers/t-storms approaching from the mid Atlc
    coast. The main concern for late afternoon/evening is line of
    convection moving NE from NJ. This activity is along the nose of
    a strong low level jet which moves along the coast 21-00z.
    Models generating up to 500 J/kg with some mesoscale guidance
    even higher. Given very strong low level shear, concern is for
    isold severe and even a low risk for a brief tornado near south
    coast with warm front and triple point nearby but we will have
    to overcome strong low level inversion. Temps holding steady in
    the upper 30s to lower 40s but some of the hi-res guidance has
    temps spiking into the upper 50s late afternoon/evening southern
    RI and SE MA as the warm front lifts north and this could
    weaken the inversion enough for an isold strong/severe t-storm.
    But window is very brief and still a low risk. Otherwise, heavy
    rainfall will be the primary threat with localized rainfall
    rates in any t-storms may reach 0.50-1.00/hr. This could produce
    areas of urban and poor drainage flooding.

    Here is the low level shear for this evening.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    1. Notice that most of the lightning stays down around NYC and generally
      (Other than a few renegade strikes) does not move Northward/Northeastward with the radar echoes.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=0&rand=24858525&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      1. Hmmm no sooner do I post it, when I start to see a bunch
        more strike to the North. Oh well, we shall see. 😀

  33. The NYC storms seem to be moving due north or NNE, so I wonder if they will hit us in the Boston area.

  35. I am enjoying Vicki… It is not a severe thunderstorm but seeing a fair amount of lightning.

  37. 7 Day Forecasts from around the dial: https://i.imgur.com/eUnTZOD.jpg

    Channel 4 is back to saying 80 for Tuesday. Channel 7 which usually says the high temp for Boston is saying 80 but with a “60s Coast” graphic on the day. They just want to show an 80 degree day lol.

    1. Uh no. Not even remotely close to being an enforcer. Jay Miller was an enforcer. Shawn Thornton was an enforcer. Brad Marchand is a skilled forward that needs to learn how to control his emotions on the ice.

  41. If my eyes don’t deceive me, the warning on the Worcester county thunderstorm says the cell is moving north at 85 mph …..

  43. Yes it is Tom. I have never seen a warned thunderstorm move at that rate of speed. I have seen some move at 60 mph but never that high.

  44. Wow. Had been on phone and not watching radar. Warned area is to my west and I think the cell will just pass to west. But. HUGE flash of lightening and sos so clap of thunder.

  46. Holy cow it just started to straight up downpour here in Lakeville. There’s also quite a bit of thunder and lightning going on as well.

    1. Quite a bit of lightning is a bit of an understatement. There is A LOT of lightning out there right now.

  50. Another wave of torrential rain, thunder and lightning here. This looks to be the last band. Driving back home there was lots of localized street flooding, and many yards with small lakes in them.

  54. Thunder and lightning in Milton as well; raining buckets! I have to go pick up my husband so I am not pleased.

  57. We can sit here and watch the rain gauge tick up every refresh. We’re at 1.28″/hour rainfall rate right now.

        1. You hereby have a standing invitation to come to Sutton during a T&L storm of your choosing

  59. Special weather statement with a strong thunderstorm parts of south shore with 40 mph winds moving north at 65mph.

  60. I had to run some errands. No sooner had a stepped out and walked towards my car ane the SKY lit up and then BOOM! It kept going for quite a while. I looked on my mobile device RadarScope app. No Rotation.

    I never saw a bolt hitting the ground, but the flashes sure as hell looked to be
    Cloud to ground strikes.

    Pretty cool.

    AND 1.22 inches of rain on the day to boot. 😀

  61. 1.27″ for the day here in Taunton. Opening Day for my new Acu-Rite rain gauge. Looks like it’s calibrated perfectly! Thanks for the suggestion, JPD!

    1. Cool. I am happy you like it. I am tickled pink with it and a very very satisfied customer and I am as picky as hell. 😀

      1. Now if someone can just come by and help me set mine up

        Although we are redoing deck starting tomorrow so suspect it was good I never mounted it on old deck

  63. There was brief very weak rotation around 6:40PM northwest of Worcester with one cell. That has been it. Otherwise this has been a typical spring storm kind of thunderstorm event.

  64. Hmmm smart little AcuRite unit. My display is showing an animated ICON
    with a cloud, rain and lightning. Pretty awesome. 1.25 inches and ticking upwards.

  65. If I am to believe the Wundermap Nexrad radar display, there is no more
    lightning to the South of Boston, even though there are some juicy looking cells there.
    Still, it would not surprise me to see lightning and hear thunder when they approach.
    It is Orange on the radar down by Brockton and at the speed they are trudging along it should be here in about 10-20 seconds. 😀 : D:D

      2. I see it on the Wundermap display. RED near Marshfield.
        Must be or was coming down in torrents.

        2. It sure was. But everything has been happening so fast.

          There was one storm earlier that had a lightning/thunder couplet instantaneous and then within 10 minutes at most, all gone. The lightning from 10 minutes ago is suddenly done. Fast, fast changes.

            1. Almost here. Wow! That really was fast.
              Seems to be weaker now. I doubt we have thunder and lightning. We shall see.

  68. Ok, we have had rain, sleet, snow, cold, thunderstorms, wind, cloudy spring days ….. everyone’s favorite has been seen this month …….

    Now please …… it’s time for sunshine and warmth next !!

  70. Interesting way we’ve earned that inch to inch and a half today.

    Not 6-8 hrs of continuous rain, but seemingly 10 to 15 waves of rain with not one wave lasting tremendously long, but many of them with heavy downpours.

  73. You guys had fun. I love it

    Rain here today was earned by the steady kind. Interesting that south central MA and south shore are again a tale of two different areas

  75. 1.45″ in the rain gauge in Coventry, CT after 1.05″ Tuesday. Another big dent in what’s left of this drought!

Comments are closed.