Tuesday Forecast

152 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)
One more hot day today but a cold front moving from north to south across the region may trigger a few showers and thunderstorm before it puts an end to the hot spell and high pressure behind it delivers seasonable weather for the middle of the week. When we get to the end of the week, a southerly flow will develop between high pressure exiting the East Coast and an approaching trough of low pressure from the west. This will increase the humidity and also the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered midday and afternoon thunderstorms possible southern NH and MA, and afternoon to early evening thunderstorms favoring MA/CT/RI. Humid. Highs 77-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable with sea breezes especially South Coast, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH late. Strong winds possible near any storms.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm favoring southern areas early. Lows 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest East Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 50s. Highs in the 70s, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)
Higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances are expected June 18-19 then a transition to drier weather follows. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)
A more zonal pattern is still expected with a few episodes of showers/storms from passing disturbances and more variable temperatures.

152 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. Heat advisory now in effect for most of eastern MA. Take it easy outside; we’ve largely escaped the humidity the past couple days, but today will be about as HHH as it gets.

        1. AC/DC really rock. Granted it is usually simple 3 and 4 chord progressions, but man do they get it done and although I haven’t seen them, they put on one hell of a show. I have seen videos of their shows. Would have loved to have seen them.

          Like I said, I like my music hard and rough. 😀
          Although, strangely I like few surprising tunes for me.
          For example I like some limited country. Ie
          Brooks and Dunn, Carlene Carter and Jason Aldean.
          A few pop artists, for example Pink and Passenger
          I liked One Direction, but they were more rock than pop.
          I like one of One D now going solo, Harry Styles.

          I do not have a wide range of musical tastes. Just not wired that way. I certainly respect other people’s tastes for sure.

            1. Excellent. We’re all the same, yet different. 😀

              I am certainly a fan of Classic Rock.
              Jazz never.
              Blues, well some. I liked BB King.
              And like some of the more bluesy tunes
              by Eric Clapton. It all depends.

              I am a big fan of all the variations
              of 12-bar blues tunes. One of the first things I learned to play on guitar.

  8. Thanks TK. Watching Saturday forecast as the last baseball game of the season, hoping rain is more scattered.

  10. Tk I know it’s Saturday but I have a job that wasn’t finished last Saturday should I be ok for this Saturday. Again I loose Sunday being Father’s Day so I need dry.

    1. Isn’t Sunday a bit more than Father’s day in your family 🙂 🙂 😉

      1. Excellent I just need 7- 4 window as I’m ending the day there to have dinner in Plymouth harbor .

  12. Logan is at 85 as of 9AM this morning with DP 64 and West Wind.
    Now up to 86 maintaining the West wind and dp 64.

    If it stays that way, there will be NO marine influence on possible
    thunderstorm development. Could be nasty even in the City.

    We shall see.

        1. Yeah but think about next week . I would kill to be in your position all summer but you earned it big time . Joe has field day today and out next Tuesday .

          1. Grandson has field day today also. Out Friday. Hot day for field day for sure. But I don’t recall noticing it as a youth.

              1. I did also. I think both grands in the school system have had either field trips, field days, ice cream parties, pajama day or whatever. They are too busy having a blast to notice the heat. Not so for the teachers, sadly!

            2. My boys have field day today too and some genius thought that black t-shirts were a good idea. Ugh!

  16. Hmm, looking over the latest HRRR and RAP model runs.

    RAP has boston area with about 1100 Joules of CAPE, while the HRRR
    has about 2,300 joules, a significant difference. I’d go with the HRRR in this case.

    Also, noted on the HRRR both with the CAPE chart and the Sim Reflectivity, there
    seems to be two (2) bouts. (Don’t ask me why. We need TK for that one).
    One batch goes by around 21Z and then the next batch around 0Z.

    Interesting to note that the Euro has the most favorable parameters at 0Z as well.

    I’d be curious to know the reasons why?

    1st batch with a trough OR push of lift out ahead of the front (ie like a squall line) and the 2nd batch with the lift associated with the actual front? Only thing I can determine. I suppose that makes some sense. Hoping TK can confirm or explain why.

    1. FWIW, the 12Z NAM NOT showing the dual batches. JUST the main batch
      coming through around 21Z ish.

  17. Logan up to 90 while maintaining West wind and dp 64.

    It’s officially a HEAT WAVE, 2nd one this year already and the first time since
    records have been kept that Boston has had 2 heat Waves prior to the Summer Solstice.

    Pretty cool.

  19. 90 at Hyannis, 88 on the vineyard and 77 on Nantucket. Doesn’t that tie
    a record for Nantucket?

  20. Record is 98F (1984). Won’t be shocked if Logan ends up overachieving as usual at 96 or 97. Front is taking its sweet time coming.

  21. 14Z HRRR is currently NOT verifying.

    14Z called for convection entering the Berkshires near Albany at 15Z or 11AM.

    Radar is clean as a whistle in that area.

    Nice try HRRR. Go back and throw your darts again and see where they land.

  22. Latest from NWS:

    Minor tweaks to precipitation timing as well, mainly to slow
    the onset by a couple of hours. This slower timing will allow
    the heat to build a bit more. This should mean a slightly
    increased risk for stronger thunderstorms later this
    afternoon and evening. It will all still hinge on the wind
    shear. Will need to monitor that closely heading into this
    afternoon.

    1. Is there a chances that the SPC places us in a Slight Risk area?
      And then is there a chance that a Severe Thunder Storm Watch is issued?

  25. Radar still quiet.

    I would imagine in the next hour or 2 we will start to see action.

    I am currently thinking that we very well may be issued an Severe thunderstorm
    watch for later this afternoon.

    The latest SREF has the Craven Severe index at 20,000 and the latest HRRR
    has the super cell composite at 4+ for the Boston Area.

    We shall see. If not, some of these storms will be potent none-the-less.

  26. So I’m sitting here wondering if I should post this, but here goes. When temps plunge to dangerous levels in the winter, some schools cancel (whether folks agree with the decision or not), but in the summer when temps are equally as dangerous INSIDE AND OUT, I can’t recall anyone mention that school should be cancelled. Thoughts?

    2. I also agree. I’d love to hear from our teachers as they would be best qualified to say whether it is dangerously hot in the school. My daughter and husband went to watch the field day so I’ll see how they felt the kids were doing there.

      1. I would say uncomfortably warm, not dangerous. I am giving a chapter test right now in one of the only places in our building that has AC: the auditorium.

        I am getting wiser in my older age; definitely not smarter.

        I am giving a lot of water breaks.

  27. Heading down the Cape to W Dennis – leaving 1 pm.
    Wondering what we see and when we see it…
    Are we on “Thunder Road”? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  29. Hallways are tough, but rooms are manageable with a window unit. I feel for the kids in our neighborhood’s elementary school who are without A/C.

  30. I wonder if we get storms, are they going to pop almost overhead. If so, those are the ones that make me most nervous for public safety with lightning because I always hear people saying they’ll move inside once they hear the first thunder. That works if the storm is already developed before it hits your location, but not if the the first lightning/thunder combo occurs near you in a developing storm.

    1. Agreed.

      And why am I not surprised that the SPC placed in the Slight Risk category.
      Next comes the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. We shall see.

  35. Also worth noting, it looks like the initial storm is fading away.
    Signs of pulsing? OR just a renegade ahead of the main action?

  37. At 2 pm, Concord NH has a dewpoint of 62F.

    But, but from southernmost NH points south, mid to upper 60F dewpoints seem more prevalent.

    I think Rte 2 south has the best chance.

    1. Also, then any convection may benefit from convergence in south central Mass eastward to the south shore of MA, as it encompasses additional surface convergence from where a hot west wind meets a very warm southwest wind.

  38. From SPC

    …CT/MA…
    Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over
    southern New England today, where surface dewpoints are in the mid
    60s. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon
    as a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest. Forecast
    soundings are not particularly impressive, with only moderate lapse
    rates and rather weak low-level winds. However, sufficient CAPE and
    deep layer vertical shear suggest the risk of a few intense cells
    capable of hail and damaging wind gusts.

  40. Nws discussion mentioned the reason why we haven’t seen storms yet is because there is a CAP. They think that CAP will be broken eventually. This makes sense since I don’t see any towe ring cumulus clouds yet.

    2. Witnessed that cap. Ironically to my south, a few cumulus grew to about 20 to 25,000 ft and then it’s like the top of the cloud hit a cement wall and just fell apart.

  43. Another day that the high temps soar above what was expected just 18 hrs previously.

    Yesterday, Harvey put it at 50/50 that Boston would hit 90F. Most TV weathercasts I saw were btwn 88 and 91F for Logan.

  45. The storms out there behaving like what was taught being the pulse type. One storm earlier in that area had a warning than weakened now a second one has formed and gone severe.

  49. If estimate cold front to be approaching mass border, as 4pm obs show mostly NW winds in NH and ME and lowering dewpoints.

  50. OK, we’re getting action now. The question is: How extensive will the coverage be?

    May be spotty and isolated? Who knows, they may become more numerous.

    We shall see.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24956423&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. I think Boston latitude has a race ongoing btwn when the cap lifts and when the sfc cold front passes.

  51. The SPC has had the mesoscale discussion for our area up for a FULL 2 hours.
    I have never seen that before. Either post the watch OR take the discussion down.

  52. To me if the coverage is going to be isolated I don’t see the need for a watch. So far what is happening Hudson River Valley of NY and western parts of CT is isolated severe warned storms.

  53. Radar shows outflow from that storm over me in Wilmington. On the ground it has gotten cloudy pretty quickly and there’s one dark strip almost directly overhead. Maybe something will quickly form on this boundary.

      1. I can hear the frequent thunder from it right now! Doesn’t look like I’ll get rain from it though. Another one just formed in the southeastern part of the state.

        1. The storm that just formed produced a weak boundary of its own. Maybe we’ll start to see a domino effect happen.

          1. Approaching Woburn and “Looks” to be expanding
            Westward. I wonder IF it will clip parts of
            Boston? I can see it from the office here in Roxbury.

  55. The SPC mesoscale discussion for SNE is still up. It’s been up since
    1:25 PM this afternoon. They can’t decide to post a watch after more than 2 1/2 hours?
    I just don’t get it.

  56. About to head out. Frankly, I am NOT impressed. Unless something changes quickly,
    apparently I won’t be either. 😀

  59. Wow diving in cambridge from arlington. Wow! Very heavy rain nickel size hail and strong winds.

  60. Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 6:30pm Boston area. Wording with severe thunderstorm is it has history of producing widespread wind damage across Boston area.

  62. This cell, now extending west southwestward to Hull, has an easily seen outflow boundary on radar.

    Southwestern edge of cell trying to drop southward, wonder if we’re going to get clipped.

    1. Looks close to hingham and our friends there

      Seems to almost be hugging coastline with some movement east

  63. According Ryan Hanrahan on twitter Mesonet site at MIT in Cambridge had a wind gust of 63 mph. Isolated severe storms but if you were in the suburbs of Sommerville and Cambridge looking at the pics on twitter you had one heck of a storm.

  64. Vicki I was reading Kane’s post and looking at the pics on Eric’s twitter page it was a fast moving storm that packed a punch. Just looking at one of Eric’s tweet radar in Hingham showing 1 to 1.5 inch hail.

        1. Some heavy rain for a bit…some thunder..some wind…almost no lightning that I could see.

  65. I can see an anvil looking south at the storm that just went through Boston. Pretty impressive looking cell.

  66. I know Ryan Hanrahan was mentioning the other day he was thinking these storms would hold to the coast and were seeing it with that one thunderstorm that is pushing through the Boston area.

  68. Vicki this was Ryan’s response to what I said earlier on Sunday.
    NW flow should manage to keep storms going to the beaches.

  69. This storm that we have been talking about for an hour continues to be warned.
    Head’s up Tom!

    2. Nothing is going to happen here . Wind picked up & looked threatening while I was in Hanover doing an estimate that’s about it. Sunny in pembroke now.

  70. No that storm has a special marine warning as it over the water. Starting to see wind damage reports come in with this storm.

  73. Back home, eastern half of Marshfield did get some rain.

    Now, there’s no wind and a light fog hanging in the air.

    It is very soupy and I believe that 73F dewpoint the airport is reporting. When we were driving home and hit the area that had gotten rain, my windows fogged up with the A/C on.

  74. Nothing at all here today in Manchester CT….not even a drop! Just another oppressive day. High at BDL made it to 95 today, 96 yesterday, and 94 Sunday.

    Saw this interesting fact on Eric Fisher’s twitter today…..

    The number of 90 degree days so far this year at selected locations:
    Boston 6
    Philadelphia 5
    Atlanta 2
    Charlotte 1
    Little Rock 0

    Almost hard to believe!

  78. Logan hit 95 today…overachieved as usual.

    No storms here in Dorchester, just a quick sprinkle.

    2. Actually Logan’s sensor is incorrect.

      They’re not over-achieving as much as people think they are.

  79. nice stormed moved through here, its been nice with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s the last few days, hopefully the wind did not push my pots

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