Tuesday Forecast

64 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)
Welcome to August and a new weather pattern, with high pressure generally dominant off the US East Coast and a trough of low pressure in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This pattern will be one of moderate to high humidity, generally warm weather, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances being generally to the west and north of Boston, but more of the region may have opportunity to see a few showers/storms sometime between later Friday and later Saturday as a piece of the trough tries to move east and sends a weak cold front into New England. Favoring Saturday for this right now.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring southern NH and central MA late-day. More humid. Highs 78-83 immediate coast, 83-88 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with isolated showers, then mostly clear. Humid. Patchy fog in low-elevations and near the South Coast. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, favoring central and eastern MA through southern NH. Humid. Highs 78-83 immediate coast, 83-88 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, again favoring east central MA and southern NH. Humid. Highs 80-85 coast, 85-90 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s coast, upper 80s to lower 90s interior.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)
Same general pattern keeps high pressure off the East Coast and a fairly weak trough centered around the Great Lakes. Disturbances moving east and northeast from the trough may bring a few enhanced opportunities for showers/thunderstorms especially around August 7-8 and August 10, based on current medium range timing, but this is a low confidence forecast. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)
Slightly stronger high pressure offshore and weaker trough to the west means fewer opportunities for showers/storms and slightly hotter weather overall.

64 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Very warm yesterday, a few showers/thundershowers popped around us, but avoided the campground 🙂

    Heading to the coast today.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another beauty.

    Will there be convection? earlier HRRR runs said yes. Latest runs has some but not nearly as much as earlier runs. Go with what TK said as per usual. 😀

  8. Thanks TK.
    Happy August 1st. Summer is flying by and this is the last week I believe with sunsets past 8pm. There may be a turn towards hotter and more humid weather but its August and to me its five and half weeks left of where you could get sustained heat and humidity. Once you get past Labor Day to me the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power as it does in June July and August.

    2. To me, that date is around 8/10. 😀
      Sure there are exceptions, but I start noticing a decided difference
      around 8/10 or so. Yes, it can be hot is September, but generally
      September weather is simply delightful.

      1. I agree with all of you….or have in the past and hopefully will going forward. As I say…repeatedly…the seasons are shifting and I have heard “rumors” of a warm September into October.

  10. Vicki the past few September’s have been warmer than normal and I would not be surprised to see it happen again this year. Summer to me never goes quietly and it always seems you get that one last blast of heat and humidity but as I said earlier when it comes then it does not have the staying power just like getting a cold shot or snow in March.

    1. Agree, JJ. Even the loss of leaves on the trees has forced towns to add a couple of weeks to the end of their collections dates. And I agree about staying power. HHH in late August and September are do not seem the same to me. However, I suppose that could easily be perception.

  11. It depends on your definition of staying power. My definition of staying power when it comes to heat and humidity is when it last for a week or more.

  14. JPDave I knew it was cool but I didn’t think it was that cool to get a stretches where in some places it was the coolest July 24th – 30th on record.

  15. Now the HRRR is showing more convection today between the hours of 2 and 7 PM.
    Hmmm perhaps I don’t have to water my new shrubs? I should know by the time
    I finish dinner this evening. 😀

  16. Keep those showers away from Yankee Stadium as I got tickets to them play the Tigers.
    Eduardo Nunez making a great first impression in Boston so far.

  17. Even though summer has been average, I think ” fall” will start out warmer than average then end cooler averaging slightly above average overall. Can not believe its already August. It went way to fast

  20. Was just out for lunch. Much cumulus lurking just to the West.
    Pretty clear over the city as there is a decent sea breeze. Only 79 at Logan.

    Will there be any action along the sea breeze front? Or otherwise?
    Nothing shaking just yet.

    We shall see.

  23. What a win for the Sox. Who would have thought Chris Sale would have given up 7 runs too. What a game.

    2. His era went from 2.37 to 2.70 with that stinker last night.
      But hey, with the way he has been pitching, we can allow a stinker. 😀

  24. I guess we are supposed to be between the isolated convection in southern New England and more thunderstorms in northern Maine due to a cold front in southern Canada.

  25. Special Weather Statement issued by Taunton highlighting the possibility of strong storms across the interior this afternoon. This feels like a heavy rain threat more than a severe weather threat.

  26. SPC has just put up a marginal risk for today with the exception far southern RI south shore Cape and Islands.

  27. Morning all! Update will be soon-to-come.

    Having an episode of atrial fibrillation so I’m awaiting the action of a medication I take only when I get hit with one of these. While I sit, I’m working on the forecast now… 🙂

    2. No no no no….please just sit. No forecast. We are fine. We want YOU to be fine. Please take care of yourself.

  29. TK take it easy.
    12z NAM has good CAPE values this afternoon along with good mid level lapse rates. Wind shear lacking for big storms. The wind fields are weak so slow moving storms so localized flooding certainly the bigger threat than severe weather.

  30. To be honest I feel better sitting up, but the medication I take makes me loopy, so if I forecast snow by accident, sorry in advance. 😉

  32. re: convection today.

    Let’s see how the trusty ole HRRR is doing.
    The 14Z HRRR (10AM) run looks like this for 11AM

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017080214/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_002.png

    Actual radar looks like this:

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=ENX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25028107&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Not too bad.

    SO if that is the case, here is what the HRRR looks like at noon

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017080214/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_004.png

    Will that one come close to verifying?

    3PM

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017080214/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_006.png

  33. This atmosphere is loaded with moisture so big rain producers where these storms fire is a good bet. With the weak wind fields in place storm motion will be slow.

  35. Hmmm

    12 Noon radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25028163&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Projected HRRR reflectivity for 12 NOON (14Z, 15Z run not out far enough, so perhaps there is a correction with that)

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017080214/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_003.png

    A SWING and a MISS.

    1. I meant that radar to be a still. SO if one looks at it a bit later, it may
      show convection. IN fact it is starting now.

      So, HRRR has the right idea, just a wee bit fast with it. 😀

  36. Activity firing up to west of SNE. SPC in their latest update expands the marginal risk to include more of the northeast and I would say that is a good call with the activity firing in parts of NY NJ PA currently.

  37. New post!
    I re-read it to make sure I didn’t type “snow” by accident.

    Oh and good news: Heart back to normal. 🙂

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