Sunday Forecast

253 Comments

8:33AM

HURRICANE IRMA
Irma was weakened considerably by its encounter with Cuba, more than the reports actually stated. This is a whole other issue that I’ll talk more on later. The fact remains that Irma is still a very dangerous hurricane and will remain so as it tracks up the West Coast of Florida. Please check trusted sources for the latest information.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
The remnants of a cool pool overhead will trigger diurnal clouds again today and perhaps an isolated shower. The early part of the week will be dominated by high pressure with great weather. The remains of Irma will bring some cloudiness and possibly some wet weather, sometime during the middle of the coming week.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
A mainly dry and mild to warm pattern is expected but Hurricane Jose milling around somewhere off the East Coast will be watched.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
Still may have to watch Jose early period. Current thoughts are that it stays offshore. Otherwise, a couple fronts may deliver episodes of showers as temperatures are somewhat variable during this period.

253 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Key West has wind calm, so they are in the eye.
    Now what was the highest sustained winds for key West? 60 mph or so
    with a hurricane rated at CAT 4 130 mph? Eye passes over key West they
    should have had winds approaching 130. I do not think that happened.

    Would like to see a complete report.

    So what does this say? I smell a rat.

    In my humble opinion, the NHC complete blew this one. Yes, I can be a harsh critic, but c’mon they could have done better than that.

    2. Can they be misreporting deliberately as WxWatcher mentioned last night? By that much?? I might get slightly below actual but more than 100%? Wow

      One report I saw said cat 2 into key west but would strengthen to 4??? 60 is still not cat 2.

      1. I was going by Tom’s report. The latest 2 reports I saw were
        Calm and then 36 mph. Key West will be on the other side of the eye soon, so we’ll see what that shows.

  4. I’ve been following many of the recon flights and yesterday afternoon, there were several hours where the top flight winds were between 95 and 105 knots, which is 110 to 120 mph. I do understand that the sfc winds are usually 70 to 80% of this value a majority of times.

    At 8pm last night, the NHC did come down to 120 mph.

    And then it wasn’t long into the night before the eye wall returned to seeing between 110 knots and 125 knots flight level winds with a pressure of 930 mb.

    If the weakening yesterday afternoon were to continue overnight and all the way to the keys and beyond, then yes, I could have seen dropping down to cat 2 yesterday. But, where strengthening was anticipated and did happen, no need to risk even 1 person making a tragic choice because they heard cat 2, not knowing or ignoring that a stronger system was coming.

    I believe the NHC always reevaluates storms after the fact and they can adjust it then.

    1. We all have our opinions, but imho, the NHC did a poor job with Irma.

      Right or wrong, politically correct or not, I think that the storm surge projections
      are going to fall way short. But this is a good thing for life and property, but
      a bad thing for future storms as people are simply NOT going to listen to warnings.

      1. If the storm surges fall short, then I agree.

        But, let’s see first 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I feel like I’m experiences the déjà vu of when we have 2 inches in a snowstorm and the storm is 10% finished and we’re saying bust 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Perhaps. IF that Marathon obs is correct, then
          the surge may verify. We’ll know soon enough.

          i was basing that on Key West.

          I still can’t understand why Key West winds were so
          low? I can’t wrap my head around that one.

    2. Here is a YAHOO Weather feed for Marathon, FL:

      {“query”:{“count”:1,”created”:”2017-09-10T12:53:06Z”,”lang”:”en-US”,”results”:{“channel”:{“units”:{“distance”:”mi”,”pressure”:”in”,”speed”:”mph”,”temperature”:”F”},”title”:”Yahoo! Weather – Marathon, FL, US”,”link”:”http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/weather/Country__Country/*https://weather.yahoo.com/country/state/city-2445445/”,”description”:”Yahoo! Weather for Marathon, FL, US”,”language”:”en-us”,”lastBuildDate”:”Sun, 10 Sep 2017 08:53 AM EDT”,”ttl”:”60″,”location”:{“city”:”Marathon”,”country”:”United States”,”region”:” FL”},”wind”:{“chill”:”82″,”direction”:”120″,”speed”:”137″},”atmosphere”:{“humidity”:”91″,”pressure”:”964.0″,”rising”:”0″,”visibility”:”10.1″},”astronomy”:{“sunrise”:”7:9 am”,”sunset”:”7:34 pm”},”image”:

      That shows wind at 137
      I “think” for this service, it is mph, but it “could” be kmh????

      1. Poor marathon key.

        I’ve been lucky enough to drive out to key west. I remember both drives to and from. It was November, the wind was light both times and the water on both sides of the bridge was so calm.

  7. Buoy info for Key West

    Conditions at KYWF1 as of
    (8:30 am EDT)
    1230 GMT on 09/10/2017:
    Unit of Measure:
    Time Zone:

    MM DD TIME (EDT) WDIR WSPD kts GST kts WVHT ft DPD sec APD sec MWD PRES

    09 10 8:24 am NNW 61.0 78.1 – – – – – – – – – – – –
    09 10 8:18 am NNW 55.9 71.1 – – – – – – – – – – – –
    09 10 8:12 am N 60.0 74.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –
    09 10 8:06 am N 55.9 76.0 – – – – – – – – – – – –
    09 10 8:00 am N 53.0 66.0 – – – – 28.26 -0.48 80.1 84.0 – – – –
    09 10 7:54 am N 47.0 69.9 – – – – 28.27 – 80.1 84.0 – – – –
    09 10 7:48 am N 45.1 58.1 – – – – 28.29 – 80.1 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:42 am N 42.9 59.1 – – – – 28.29 – 79.7 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:36 am N 48.0 66.0 – – – – 28.30 – 79.2 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:30 am N 41.0 61.0 – – – – 28.33 – 79.7 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:24 am N 34.0 59.1 – – – – 28.36 – 79.5 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:18 am N 36.9 54.0 – – – – 28.39 – 79.5 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:12 am N 35.0 56.9 – – – – 28.40 – 79.5 84.2 – – – –
    09 10 7:06 am N 38.1 53.0 – – – – 28.43 – 78.6 84.0 – – – –
    09 10 7:00 am N 35.9 54.0 – – – – 28.44 -0.42 79.3 84.0

        1. It was interesting watching those two web cams you posted the links on last night. I was watching one of them and all the power went in the area except for a few emergency lights. Then about 2 hours later the feed stopped…Thinking the battery on the laptop (if it was a laptop) that the cam was hooked up to ran out of juice.

      2. Maybe…but notice winds are still increasing at Key West. Gusts are at 90 mph and I believe other sites were reporting the pressure still dropping. But yeah even with that it something seems off. Tough job..in a tough situation.

    1. TWC has been reporting gusts to hurricane force on their live shots. I question the accuracy of that as well.

        1. Just saw 73 mph gust. I am looking at the meso maps
          which are pretty damn accurate, but it is almost real time.
          So in the last 5 minutes the gust could have been 63 but the next 5 it could be 73 or higher.

  12. Winds are not calm in key west. Last reported wind speed at key west international per the NWS was at 6:53 when the wind was gusting to 75. The wind speed was reported as NA at 7:53 and there has been no 9am report. I am guessing the reporting station is at least partially down.

    1. WOW! thanks Mark.

      I guess perhaps I’m a bit premature on the surge. Let’s see what
      it looks like up the coast.

      Keep em coming.

      1. Poor drainage. Someone commented on that twitter post that the water can get that high during a heavy round of thunderstorms down there. I’ve seen it myself. Not quite that deep, but it’s not unusual. Note the parking lot to the left. No water whatsoever. I’ve seen water over the roads in situate as bad during a nor’easter .
        Not trying to downplay some water and wind damage, (maybe a little), but come on. All week dire warnings of death, destruction and mayhem. Did people really think the destruction was going to look like those sea level islands out in the Atlantic where most of the buildings and houses are made out of fall-a-particle board and cardboard boxes?
        I remember Fran and Bertha back to back in NC 21 years ago. Destroyed beach from property from Bald head Island to Topsail. People who lived on the ocean left and went inland a few miles and were fine. No hype and the world was ending stuff. But then again there was no Facebook, no twitter, and very little internet. Sensationalism sells ads, and gets more clicks than telling people the wind is any worse than gusts to 60.

    2. It’s eerie in key west that, in some places, you look down a street and see the water and honest to goodness, it was probably an illusion, but it looked like the sea level at the end of the street or where the land ended was like 2 inches below land level. So I think a 2+ foot surge down there is huge.

  14. Tom,

    Best I can determine that Marathon report from Yahoo Weather
    of 137 is Kilometers per hour or roughly 85 mph.

    I took a yahoo report for Miami which showed 72
    and a NWS report from Miami that showed 50

    the 72 equates to about 45 mph. close enough for me.

  15. Current storm surges ….

    Key west : + 2.88 ft
    Miami : + 2.55 ft
    Naples : – 2.8 ft (offshore wind) did anyone see the video from the Bahamas island where the sea floor was exposed due to an offshore breeze ?

  16. Per NWS, 71 mph sustained and gusts to 90 at key west as of 9am.

    NWS is also reporting the wind has gusted to 100mph in Miami. I can believe it after just watching Mike Seidel’s report on the TWC. His photographer just got knocked to the ground and dropped the camera

  21. Seidel just fell into a planter. Pretty crazy footage. He is standing right on the bay in Miami harbor. Yes there are lots of buildings there but that is how it is in pretty much the entire downtown area. Lots of high rises on the water. I’ll have to admit I am a bit surprised how bad it is there based on Miami’s proximity to the eye. Huge storm.

  22. I believe what they are concerned about happening in Naples and ft Myers after the center passes is happening in the keys right now.

    The 2 gauges I’m looking at show the water rising very quickly. I’m assuming the wind has gone westerly in the keys.

    Key West now at a 3.2 ft surge and climbing.

    There’s plenty of ocean to flow in behind the center as all the water has been pushed offshore in Naples and immediate surrounding areas.

    1. I have been getting the impression it was something along those lines but don’t have the expertise to know. Thank you, Tom.

    1. Harvey had up to 110 sustained and gusts to over 130 at landfall.
      They are being very generous with their Cat 4 rating….

      1. quite true.

        I’m guessing that somewhere 50 to 100 miles east of Rockport, TX wasn’t gusting to hurricane force though like Miami is today.

        Harvey : more intense than Irma in a very, very small area

        Irma : less intense than Harvey in the eyewall, but much, much stronger than Harvey over a vastly greater area.

        1. Yes, indeed. It is a huge storm. But I think the toll it takes as far as damage, loss of life, and financial impact is going to end up far less than Harvey.

    1. I remember her well. I was on an enclosed porch playing meteorologist with weather equipment a friend and I built for a science fair.

  32. My sister in law said wind in Atlanta has picked up some. I checked wunder at airport and it seems fairly consistent in the high 20s low 30s

  34. North part of the storm is getting very elongated. looks like the stronger shear over the northeastern Gulf is starting to have an impact.

  38. Much as Irma’s winds are far weaker than they could have been, she is still doing impressive things. Lots of reports of bays and inlets north of the storm “emptying out” this morning. When the eye passes and wind changes directions, that water will violently rush back in. Same effect as a tsunami.

      1. And I think as important or maybe more important than winds. Far far too many paid attention to winds in Harvey. And they were horrifically wrong. I understand Irma and Harvey are diffeeenr storms, but it amazes me how folks cannot stand back a foots and see the whole picture

  42. If it wasn’t for Irma I think twitter would be exploding right now with the 12z GFS taking a left hook with Jose into the Boston area. 0z EURO had landfall in northern Maine.

    2. I find the euro interesting though and maybe echoing a bit of that GFS idea because if you look at the 192 and 216 hr positions, you might expect the 240 hr position to be out by easternmost Nova Scotia. And clearly, whether it’s the upper low to the west or the ridge to the east, something at 240 hrs is catching Jose and yanking it back to the north, northwest.

  45. CNN saying there may be hurricane gusts in Atlanta. Also that eye couldn’t fully recover after Cuba which kept intensity down some for US interests.

    Does that sound feasible and/or accurate

    1. A high end tropical storm force or low end hurricane force gust in Atlanta isn’t impossible, but I figure most of their gusts will be in the 35-55 mph range.

      Some shear and dry air on the western side didn’t allow it to reintensify to the 140-155 mph range.

      Except for the keys, the true core hasn’t hit anywhere in Florida. That’s about to change in 10 – 20 minutes where more people are to capture it on camera.

      1. Thank you also, TK

        Truly hard to tear myself away from the TV, here and your posts on FB.

        The shots of water leaving areas are amazing.

  47. I am really concerned about what’s about to happen in coastal Naples/fort Myers area.

    The tides are currently 4 ft below normal.

    In about 20 minutes, when the eye passes overhead and the winds drop, that 4 ft of water should rush back in. Then, under the very low pressure of that eye that probably has a 1 ft bulge under it, that’s going to come in with the eye. Then, minutes after that, the westerly wind will push in additional ft of water.

    I wouldn’t be surprised by a 6 to 8 ft rise in about half an hour to 45 minutes, followed by another 2-4 ft rise the next few hours after the eye passes with strong, gusty westerly winds.

  48. GFS ensembles and ensemble mean out Jose well out in the Atlantic at 240 hrs. Yet the operational slams a Cat 2 into the Cape. Which one is more likely here? 🙂

  51. I am posting this on facebook as well, but I feel like I been seeing people complaining about New England weather, consistently. If its winter, spring, summer and fall. Lets just take a second and relish in the benifits we have here in New England. We generally do not get so dry that we become an inferno like the west is right now. We always have sources of water even if we are abnormally dry. We do not usually have the jet stream literally stop keeping a storm to just dump 30 inches of rain. (Harvey). As of right now we have cool ocean waters that are below 80 degrees keeping strong Hurricanes from forming up here. I know some people probably did not like the fact we had a normal summer, but I rather have a normal summer than deal with what the west is dealing with. Fall is a nice time of year, as its good for hiking/biking and the scenery here in New England is out of this world even when its not a nice foliage season. Winter, can be iffy with Nor-easters but I rather have nor-easter after nor easter than deal with any Hurricane.

    1. Just as I agreed with Joshua yesterday when he pointed out how blessed we are, I agree with you today. I always have felt that way about New England.

  52. The whiplash is about to happen in the Naples area. NWS Miami has issued a Flash Flood Emergency for the imminent occurrence of life threatening storm surge.

    1. There’s been reports on TWC that people are walking out to see the lower tide on parts of the west coast of Florida.

  53. My chaser friend is in Naples. She’s in a relatively secure spot with a good view. I’m in occasional contact with her. Video is being taken.

    2. Nice, TK. Son in laws parents there had not lost power or cable as of about 30 minutes ago. Have her stop in for a warm dinner

    1. Yikes

      I had to turn away for a bit. It gets overwhelming and worry about SILs parents. So I’ll watch an episode of NCIS….which is ever so much more relaxing 😉 …..and tune back in there.

    2. Watching Mike Bettes on TWC and seeing what’s going on there (wind and rain). This is 115 mph, what the heck must Barbuda have gone through ??

  60. My friend was on FB live during the passage of the eye wall. It was incredible to watch. She is now through the worst of it and safe. 🙂

  62. The outflow looks good and watching the last hour, I think that eyewall and its intensity hang in there for a few to many hours, even if tracks 10 miles inland.

  63. Well I lasted about five minutes not watching. It is just incredible.

    For what little comfort it is, I’m glad it is daylight; but it seems some will go through this in the dark. I cannot imagine hearing that outside and not being able to see it

    1. One thing that many forget or don’t even realize.. Yes we have a lot of construction on our coastline that it is very vulnerable, but in comparison to many of the structures on those islands, it’s much stronger. Many of those villages are comprised of shoddily built homes on hillsides, exposed to the wind. They don’t even need a hurricane the magnitude of Irma to go down, or at least be heavily damaged. And then you put an Irma on them as a direct hit and the results are just devastating…

  64. It’s amazing what a difference of several miles. The CNN crew is really in the eye and things are pretty calm (relatively) while the WC is a little further west I think and while conditions there are a little better it’s not as “calm” as it is where the CNN crew is.

      1. Just watched the relative calm at the WC site get hit with the other side of the wall…dark clouds…everything..it was wild.

  65. A fellow radio hobbyist who is (or was…not sure which) for Environment Canada is going with the 12z GFS for Jose. I told him I’d wait till later this week to see what it comes up with then.

      1. Well I’m not sure of the scale being used on what you’re looking at but typically you’d be looking at colder (higher) cloud tops.

  67. CNN’s meteorologist, while doing a decent job, is also making sound like the storm is falling apart rapidly (his words were “disintegrating”, “weakening rapidly”….and so on)

      2. ooops..sorry Vicki I thought you were referring to another post I made. Chris was Chris Cuomo the reporter on the scene and I actually thought he was doing a really good job.

    2. I wouldn’t call it rapid weakening and especially not disintegrating, but it is weakening. It was not going to stay as strong as some of the forecast had indicated all the way up through Florida. Not sure where that logic came from. Irma is behaving very typically for a hurricane. There is nothing different about it from any other hurricane.

  68. 12z euro has Jose a whiff. Ensembles and ensemble mean for GFS, CMC, and hurricane models are pretty similar.
    12z GFS operational is drunk and on an island alone.

    2. Hurricanes are exceptionally rare in these parts. A big waste of time even thinking about it. Enjoy the last of the decent weather for the next month or so before we start freezing our asses off again.

  71. Going to be interesting to see the wind damage in a swath 15-30 miles inland from the west coast where that northeast quadrant of the eye continues to rage.

    1. It’s dramatic use of the term for the sake of impact.

      Most of the keys were evacuated. There were very few people left there.

  74. Someone said we have about a month left of good weather until we start freezing our asses off. I respectfully disagree. Around here fall is awesome in terms of weather. I think we take it for granted because we live here and are accustomed to it; that is, the weather we’ve been having the past couple of weeks, will likely have this upcoming week and for the foreseeable future. It never ceases to amaze me how much sun and warmth we get in September, October, and the first two weeks of November. Nights are cool and sometimes frosty by the end of October. But, generally we get very healthy doses of sun in autumn on virtually a daily basis.

    2. Well, you know, I’ll agree with Retrac. Last week of October to Mother’s Day suck wind. I freeze my tail off around here for 6 months and makes my bones hurt. Truth be told, anything below 60 I can’t stand. If I could spend those 6 months in Costa Rica I’d be a happy man. I don’t need 4 seasons. Anything but summer is over rated. 😉

    3. That was more likely a large version of a low level wind eddie or a mini swirl caused by buildings. It only extends up a couple dozen feet or so but at the surface it has essentially the same effect as a small EF-0 tornado.

        1. In theory they are, but I have never bought that. They’ve come down on numerous occasions in wind far below that speed.

            1. I remember reading about such collapses in places like NYC in wind events like that series we had here in the Northeast earlier this year around February.

  81. Storm surge on the St John River in northeast Florida, miles inland, is up to 5 ft.

    Wonder what state wide pictures of damage we are going to see today ….

  82. And the 6z brings it into D.C. Every other piece of guidence takes it offshore except the GFS operational. What an abomination that model is

  83. Some 7 am (today) wind obs

    Orlando Intl : S at 36, gusting to 60
    Orlando Exec : S at 43, gusting to 69
    Daytona Beach : S at 32, gusting to 61
    Jacksonville : E at 35, gusting to 51

    I really wonder what kind of condition a central location like Orlando, is in.
    http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KMCO.html

    Starting at 8pm last night, every hour through 5 am this morning, reported a wind gust equal to or in excess of 60 mph and from 8pm to 5am this morning, sustained winds were between 40 and 50 mph. That’s a long time to have those winds.

  85. I – 295 Bridge over the St John River in Jacksonville, FL …

    The tide guage is currently measuring a 5.6 ft storm surge.

  87. 6 million people without power in Florida this morning. That’s almost a third of the states entire population!

  88. Good morning,

    Waiting to assess the damage from Irma. Frankly, I am suffering from
    “Coverage” Fatigue. That was too much coverage and it got very repetitive.
    Sure, parts of the coverage was great, especially from the Weather Channel, although
    CNN wasn’t bad either.

    Did the storm surge live up to the hype? Or did it fall short?

    Parts of the Naples area certainly got a good blow with wind gusts reported
    as high as 142 mph at the Naples Airport.

    I felt like crap yesterday and actually feel asleep watching Mike Bettes from Naples.

    After it hit Naples, I was DONE watching that stuff.

    re: Jose
    I don’t think we’re done with this one just yet. ALthough the Euro and CMC do NOT
    have it striking the US mainland, both have it close enough off shore to warrant our
    attention. Still needs to be watched carefully.

    Also, I concur on the assessment of the GFS. GOOD FOR SHIT model.

    2. I just saw the Euro ensembles. Basically a non factor for US hit. Lots of time to go, but i think its OTS

  89. Current Storm Surges :

    Savannah, GA : + 4.5 ft
    Fernandina, FL : + 5 ft
    Charleston, SC : + 2.1 ft

    In Naples : at 4 pm yesterday, the surge was – 4.7 ft
    at 7pm yesterday, the surge was + 5.2 ft for a water level rise of 9.9 ft in 3 hrs.

    It is currently at + 2.2 ft

  90. Checking upcoming weather in Florida …

    its supposed to return to 90F starting tomorrow with nighttime lows in the 70s, so hopefully, power wont be out too soon in any given area.

    1. and sitting there nearly stationary for 12 hours around 935mb. Still waiting to see where it goes from there… (because I know Blackstone wants to know)

        1. Basically destroys NJ for 3 days.
          Meanwhile the UKMET has it making landfall in Ft Lauderdale on Sunday. Im sure the euro at 12z will have it OTS.
          How the hell can the operational be so damn far off its own ensemble and ensemble mean?

        2. Then just drifts into NJ and Upstate NY as it dies out. Dumps a good 3-6″ of rain from NJ thru NY metro into CT.

          The King has spoken…..for today.

  93. SIL in Atlanta said the weather folks were saying they would have little chance or tornadoes because temp is in low 60s and too cold. Would that be accurate?

    Also, Last I checked airport, they had a 51 gust with more sustained around 30s

    1. Please verify with TK, but I do think today they are in much more stable air and thus the likelihood of spin-ups is lower.

      Now, as the remnants move further west, the winds could turn more east, then southeast and import milder, humid air tomorrow, so perhaps tomorrow could have a slightly higher chance.

        1. The spin ups are caused by changing winds with height. So, in the warm, humid airmass, there’s usually a SE wind at the surface, a few thousand ft above that, a southerly wind and thousands of feet above that, southwest winds. And if you can visualize that, it helps to form rotation in the column.

          Id guess if we did a vertical profile of the Atlanta atmosphere, we would not quite see that on a sounding.
          Also, yes, another component as you said, the cooler air at the surface adds another component of stability.

  95. 12Z Euro will be out soon. IF that has a Jose landfall, then and only then will
    I take notice. Until that time, the other models are just a good laugh! 😀

  96. Current storm surges (continues to move up the coast)

    Savannah, GA : + 4.7 ft
    Charleston, SC (Cooper River Entrance) : + 4 ft …..
    Wilmington, NC : +1.7 ft

    At the ocean in Jacksonville, the water level is slowly dropping, but many miles inland, down the St John River ….

    I295 Bridge, Jacksonville : +5.7 ft (fresh water from heavy rain probably getting into river and not being able to yet flow out into the ocean, so it is backing up)

  97. The GFS is promoting the idea of a dominating Atlantic ridge in the medium and long range and a big intermountain trof out west, thus pushing Jose into the east coast.

    Lets see if the EURO agrees with that pattern.

  98. A couple quick tropical comments from me…

    *Irma: A bad storm, but one that fell exponentially short of its destructive potential for the CONUS. Had Cuba not gotten involved, and the original forecast track into Miami played out, I shudder to think what would’ve happened. We got away with one. Hopefully our good fortune in the US turns the attention back on those who did get the true fury of Irma in the Caribbean. Rebuilding in some places there will take years.

    *Jose: One to watch, but much too early to predict a final outcome. Models are going to struggle for the next couple days while the atmosphere gets rid of Irma. The storm itself has been getting shredded by wind shear. It’ll probably continue to weaken, maybe to a tropical storm, before it completes its loop back. It may restrengthen later. The atmosphere is not making it easy on the US this year though. Normally a storm like Jose, on the tail of another storm like Irma, should be an easy OTS forecast. Not this time…

      2. Passes just SE of the benchmark and actually strengthens as it gets closer to us. Definitely close enough for impacts, at least Cape and Islands.

        A watcher for sure…

  102. Will say this about jose, The GFS has the correct Pressure at the moment at hour 00z, euro does not, its off. Both are probably extremely wrong

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