Saturday Forecast

137 Comments

12:37PM

HURRICANE IRMA
The storm has been hugging the northern coast of Cuba and this has delayed its northward turn, which is still expected, but now the center of the hurricane is expected to move basically up the western coast of Florida, whether it does this inland, offshore, or a combination of both, remains to be seen, but either way it will be a dangerous and damaging storm. Please check the official updates from NHC as well as trusted news sources for the latest.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
A cool pool overhead will trigger clouds and a few showers this afternoon and evening, with a repeat performance on Sunday with the clouds but not the showers. The first half of next week will be governed by high pressure bringing great September weather.
THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 47-54. Wind light NE to N.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
A portion of the remnants of Irma will probably bring at least some cloudiness and potentially some wet weather early in the period with fair weather expected to follow. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
We’ll have to keep an eye on Hurricane Jose, just in case, but it should remain far offshore despite an expect erratic path in the days ahead. Otherwise, a couple fronts may deliver episodes of showers as temperatures are somewhat variable during this period.

137 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK. We are blessed with some spectacular weather of late. So hard to believe such devastation elsewhere

    1. Not to mention the island of Baruba where Jose is destined to cross. They have been wiped out already by Irma a few days ago.

      1. Yup, wonder if intensification begins in a matter of hours or if it’s in 12 – 18 hrs, assuming a healthy upper level environment.

  9. With you guys posting models showing Jose nearby next week, I wonder now if he will end up being a serious player for the east coast.

    Perhaps the more western track of Irma reflects the same for Jose?

    1. Regarding Barbuda…I’m very familiar with it for having mentioned it in numerous tropical cyclone forecasts during my career.

      The western track of Irma was largely caused by friction with Cuba. It has no bearing at all on the track of Jose, which is more likely to remain offshore than impact the East Coast (although this risk is not low enough to be a comfort yet).

  10. So as is usually and nearly always the case, we’ll see a variety show of outcomes as we look at future medium range model runs.

    Our 12z show includes the aforementioned landfall of Jose in the Northeast (again) by the GFS. Meanwhile, over at the Canadian model, Jose goes out to sea, but the remains of Irma get stuck along the Mid Atlantic coast in the form of a fetch of moisture fed by an east wind around the southern edge of high pressure and delivers inches upon inches of rain over the Mid Atlantic Coast.

    These actors will surely fail the audition and be replaced by 18z and 00z. 😛

  12. Thanks, TK.

    Yes, as North mentioned, Cuba really got nailed. While the hurricane weakened as it had less ocean and more landmass to deal with, it essentially has clung to virtually the entire northern coast of Cuba.

    Could a now Category 3 hurricane rapidly intensify into a 5 over the coming 12 hours, I’m not sure.

      1. I’ll keep them all in my prayers. I know we are all praying for everyone in the area. As I’m sure you read here, my son in laws parents decided to remain in Naples. He spoke to them last night and they said they wished they had left. Unfortunately, there is now no gasoline to be found. I would think that may be the case throughout the area.

  15. Thanks TK. Beyond the extremely dangerous Irma, consider me a little bit concerned about Jose as well. Not necessarily for the Northeast, but the US in general. If he doesn’t get picked up by the first trough like the CMC shows, he will loop back towards the Bahamas. From there, it’s up to the next trough to send him away. And right now, that trough is being modeled as pretty wimpy and lifting out by the time it gets to the East Coast.

    Jose should weaken a good deal the next few days, but if he makes the loop back, restrengthening is possible if not likely.

  17. Question from a friend that I’m not sure what the answer is: Is the stength of Irma related to that recent solar storm in any way?

  19. We’re fairly lucky in New England. Sure, we occasionally get impacted by hurricanes, minor earthquakes, and sporadic tornadoes. And, we do get rather frequent snowstorms and blizzards. But, for the most part, we live in a rather safe zone, if you will. I recall my father telling me this about 40 years ago on one of long walks in the woods near Blue Hill. He was an air force surgeon and was based in different parts of the country from the late 40s through the mid 1950s. He spent time in Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. He remembered the blistering and almost incapacitating heat (in those days AC was not a given), along with frequent drought in places, hurricanes/tropical storms, tornadoes, as well as the scorpions, alligators, and venomous animals that thrived in subtropical climes. He said to me one time, “perhaps the most `dangerous’ animal in New England is a turtle (snapper)! … even the black bears are fairly harmless.”

    1. What a great story, Joshua. Thank you very much for sharing. It brought memories and a big smile. You are of course correct that we are lucky to be in New England.

      1. Yes, but not many. Copperheads and rattlesnakes can be found in New England, but their prevalence is not nearly what it is in, say, the Smokies or Shenendoah, or even the Allegheny mountains.

  23. Latest from NHC on Irma

    Winds remain the same, however, IF I am not mistaken, the pressure is down.

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…23.4N 80.5W
    ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
    ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

    1. When does she turn north? To hit Naples/Ft. Meyers areas it will need to move almost due north NOW. This thing is destined for the open Gulf at this rate

  25. Sun is out brightly in Sudbury – and it is pouring out! Not that many clouds; but one gray cloud overhead. Too many trees to see if there will be a rainbow.

  26. Vicki, Atlanta will get buckets of rain, and I think tropical storm conditions may apply (so, some wind), but, as JPDave said, Irma will have lost most of its strength as it makes landfall and moves over land before reaching Atlanta. With Irma, you can see how much a relatively small landmass (Cuba’s coastline) can do to a hurricane. In the event a hurricane hits a continental landmass it quickly loses all of its hurricane capacity.

    1. Thanks, Joshua. I was sure that was the case but wanted to be certain before talking to my SIL. I sure appreciate it.

  28. Tornadoes proving to be a real issue for FL this evening. Tons of rotating cells down there. Several tornado warnings issued so far including one “particularly dangerous situation” warning issued for a confirmed large tornado near Fort Lauderdale.

  29. Were going to see more tornado warnings up the state including another watch for central and northern Florida as Irma gets closer.

  30. With an eyewall replacement beginning, I wonder if the pressure in the hurricane drops tonight, but the increase in wind speed takes some time to respond until the current eyewall replacement is complete.

    Won’t surprise me to see the pressure back down to 915 to 920 mb by morning.

  31. A dirty little secret… Irma has been considerably “weaker” than indicated by the NHC all day, at least in terms of max winds. Nothing support more than 115mph right now, and she was weaker than that earlier. She’s actually on a strengthening trend now, but is not yet back to what the NHC has her current intensity at. It’s a real balancing act between not having people let their guards down because it’s “weakening” but still providing accurate information. The NHC knows as well as I that the initial wind speeds all day have been off. Going forward, I think we should be able to provide the most accurate info while still communicating that the risk has not really changed in a situation like this. A challenge for the future.

    2. Been noticing that on the recon plane data, with peak winds in the outside forming eyewall between 95 and 105 knots.

      1. Yep, they’ve been flying through the eyewall for hours, including the strongest northeast quadrant, and have not found extrapolated surface winds of 100kts. 95kts/110mph Cateogry 2 would probably be an appropriate intensity right now, but there’s no way they’ll drop it below Cat 3.

        1. I support the NHC, even if the wind data isn’t fully accurate. If the public hears Cat 2, routes 95, 75 and 4 down into South Florida will be full with folks headed back home.

          1. Good point as always. I’m rethinking my initial reaction. Might be good that folks don’t know. There was a guy fishing on a pier in the lower keys today. Sometimes you have to understand you cannot fix stupid.

    3. I may understand the reasoning except that will make me now doubt all information. And it scares people who didn’t leave and now wish they had.

        1. I’m rethinking. It is a very fine line. If it saves lives, then maybe. Especially if they believe it will strengthen somthat the point becomes moot. I’m uncharacterically torn on this one

      2. I would also chime in and add that – unfortunately- the storm will do whatever horrible damage the storm will do. The proof will be in the pudding. But by being less than truthful about the real wind speed and category in real time, then either way – storm is not as catastrophic as expected or the storm is as catastrophic or more deadly than currently predicted – people will associate it with an inaccurate wind speed – a deception which, if never revealed, may necessitate more lies in the future to invoke an understanding of the real risk for future storms. Or -if the deception is later revealed – may increase certain people’s distrust of the media and/or lack of respect for Mother Nature. Put another way – people need to know that the actual results are a result of the accurate storm strength, or we will just create problems (and possibly the recurring need for more deception) for future storms. Like a Ponzi scheme (sorry – I was just watching a show about Madoff) deceitfulness will snowball and lead to problems down the road. I think it is a bad call.

        1. And I’m back to my original view. I agree. The caveat is that I’d there is considerable agreement that, even thought the storm may have weakened, it will strengthen at landfall to a catastrophic number.

          Does the mid number really mean anything. That is what I’m struggling with

          Folks in a blog I was in pre-Harvey were saying it was on,u a cat 1 or 2 so why leave. They absolutely ignored the rain potential and focused only on the category number.

          That said, you are right. Those same folks will continue to ignore the whole picture and may now downgrade I their minds anything NHC says.

          1. Vickie – Great thoughts as always. I completely understand and agree with your struggle. In many ways it feels cold to write this – especially if a likely – only – temporarily – falsely reported wind speed has the potential to save even save one life in the immediate – but unfortunately I feel like given climate change this may be becoming the new normal. I think I would feel very differently if I believed this storm was – or even had a shot at being – a once in a generation storm going forward. Sadly I don’t think that’s the case.

  32. It’s got plenty of warm water and no wind shear so no reason to me it can’t strengthen back up to a CAT 4 coming through the Keys tomorrow morning.

  33. On the latest radar loop, I thought I detected a bit of a jog to the SW of all things.

    Watach Irma head out into the Gulf and end up striking New Orleans.

  34. Re : weaker winds …. I wonder if it’s because the S and SW surface winds coming off of Cuba, once the center had passed a given longitude, were first encountering some higher terrain and then descending down that terrain. That friction had to have a slowing down effect.

    But, with the pressure down at 932 and the core headed for the surface smooth of the ocean, I think that alone will allow the winds to ramp up and especially when the eyewall replacement finishes.

  35. Jose currently has higher flight level winds …..

    But, Irma’s pressure is already 8 mb lower, so the wind increase is coming.

    1. Hehe. Like I said, they know. That’s still a little generous, but I’m actually glad and a little surprised that they even did that.

      Does not mean the winds can’t catch up. With a pressure this low, they would normally be higher. But every storm is different. Irma is dangerous either way.

  38. Reinforces my belief that none of this is as bad as the hype. Again, if you’re not right on the water, you’re ASL is higher than the predicted storm surge and live in a newer house, I’d stay put. All the traffic, to being able to get back for a week, no thanks. CAT 2 or low 3, I’m staying.

    1. My sense is based on my comment above. I am truly happy to see that they are making it clear that should people remain there will be no rescue.

  39. 00z spaghetti models coming in …. Perhaps another 10 mile drift west …

    Perhaps a 3 landfall event in Florida ….

    1) A western key, 2) Naples/Fort Myers area and then it gets just into the gulf one last time for a landfall in the Florida big bend area.

  40. WxWatcher I’ve been meaning to say I find your posts informative and insightful. There is no doubt you have a bright future ahead of you.

  41. Repost from above re: my thoughts on if wind speed is bein inaccurately reported in real time –

    I would also chime in and add that – unfortunately- the storm will do whatever horrible damage the storm will do. The proof will be in the pudding. But by being less than truthful about the real wind speed and category in real time, then either way – storm is not as catastrophic as expected or the storm is as catastrophic or more deadly than currently predicted – people will associate it with an inaccurate wind speed – a deception which, if never revealed, may necessitate more lies in the future to invoke an understanding of the real risk for future storms. Or -if the deception is later revealed – may increase certain people’s distrust of the media and/or lack of respect for Mother Nature. Put another way – people need to know that the actual results are a result of the accurate storm strength, or we will just create problems (and possibly the recurring need for more deception) for future storms. Like a Ponzi scheme (sorry – I was just watching a show about Madoff) deceitfulness will snowball and lead to problems down the road. I think it is a bad call.

  44. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

    One other thing working against Irma today was the outflow in the northwest quadrant, which I thought was poor.

    Early in the loop, if you look at the line of clouds over western Florida (by Tampa bay), I think you can see SW to NE cloud movement and wind flow over that part of the gulf. And, there wasn’t that feathery cirrus cloud outflow. But, in the last few hours, you can see that line of clouds moving NW into the Gulf and between it and the hurricane, the outflow looks like it’s returning in the NW quadrant.

    The next recon plane is headed to Irma. Let’s see if the pressure is below 930 mb. I believe Irma’s intensification is about to ramp up in the coming hours.

  45. My cousin and family lives in Bradenton.
    My college roommate and family lives in Siesta Key, 200 yards from the beach. He is away from on business. I pray he has a home to return to. Siesta Key is a barrier “strip” with water on both sides. I fear the storm surge could come both sides. I caught the webcam from there at sunset and it was eerily calm and beautiful, knowing what’s ahead.
    My prayers are with everyone there tonight.

  46. Am I the only one who’s bothered by the current system of presenting a supposed “cone of uncertainty” that constantly shifts? I thought the whole purpose of the cone is to layout ALL possible options as of a given future time. But if they keep changing the range of possibilities doesn’t that kind of make the whole thing kind of silly? Shouldn’t we just make the cone go from narrow to wider sooner?

  49. 0z GFS rapidly strengthens Irma overnight and into the morning with landfall around Naples tomorrow PM at 908mb (I’m sure that’s overdone). Then tracks it inland east of Tampa.

  52. Pressure’s low, winds are up, so it won’t help the Keys, but I think Irma is encountering wind shear and maybe it helps a tiny bit further up the Florida coast ?????

  54. You don’t make people stay out of an area by mis-reporting the top winds of a storm. You do it by educating them properly. It will be more effective in the long term.

    Basic meteorology tells you that there is no way Irma could have retained the strength they were claiming with the track it took. This storm is no different than any other powerful hurricane traveling in a low-shear environment. It’s vulnerable to the same things as all other hurricanes. I swear they were playing off the mass belief that somehow the hurricanes this year are different. That is completely the wrong way to do it if that’s even entered the thinking.

    Bottom line: Tell it like it is. People learn better. Psychology and human behavior 101. NHC (or whoever decided this) gets a big fat “F”.

    3. I’ve been following many of the recon flights and yesterday afternoon, there were several hours where the top flight winds were between 95 and 105 knots, which is 110 to 120 mph. I do understand that the sfc winds are usually 70 to 80% of this value a majority of times.

      At 8pm last night, the NHC did come down to 120 mph.

      And then it wasn’t long into the night before the eye wall returned to seeing between 110 knots and 125 knots flight level winds with a pressure of 930 mb.

      If the weakening yesterday afternoon were to continue overnight and all the way to the keys and beyond, then yes, I could have seen dropping down to cat 2 yesterday. But, where strengthening was anticipated and did happen, no need to risk even 1 person making a tragic choice because they heard cat 2, not knowing or ignoring that a stronger system was coming.

      I believe the NHC always reevaluates storms after the fact and they can adjust it then.

Comments are closed.