Friday Forecast

124 Comments

3:49PM

Before I proceed to the normal forecast, I am going to draw your attention to the blog of a good friend and fellow-forecaster. His blog is infused with his personal style but it will not leave the reader short changed on well thought out forecasting and great writing. Today, he has written a very comprehensive blog about the current hurricanes, and even a little more. Please visit it by going to the link in the comments section below…

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
A cool pool overhead will trigger clouds and a few showers this afternoon and evening, with a repeat performance on Saturday. By Sunday and early next week, it warms aloft and at the surface and some great late summer weather is expected as high pressure dominates.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 52-58. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 66-73. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 47-54. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-73. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to middle 50s, coolest valley areas, mildest urban areas. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
A portion of the remnants of Irma will probably bring at least some cloudiness and potentially some wet weather sometime during the Septemer 13-14 period but this is not certain yet. Fair weather is expected to follow. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
We’ll have to keep an eye on Hurricane Jose, just in case, but it should remain far offshore despite an expect erratic path in the days ahead. Otherwise, a couple fronts may deliver episodes of showers as temperatures are somewhat variable during this period.

124 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    3. He may have written this blog a bit earlier in the day, but based on the latest guidance, the “eyewall tracking over Miami and Ft Lauderdale” will likely not happen – which is good news.

      1. It still may very well do that. It’s going to have a very large eye by the time it gets there.

  3. I was just texting with an older brother of a high school friend of mine.
    He resides in Bonita Springs Florida (if you don’t know where that is, it’s between Naples and Ft. Meyers, possibly ground zero).

    He and his wife are stating put. I sure hope he remains safe. Pretty scary.

    I invited him to take a look here. Don’t know if he will or not. 😀

    1. I will keep him in my thoughts as well as everyone there. I suspect many have stayed put. As you know daughters inlaws in Naples, although I’m not sure if if is Naples proper, did also. This is a great resource for up to the minute info and discussion. I hope he reads and maybe even joins as he can ask location specific questions too

  9. My son in laws who’s parents are in Naples was just telling me how well constructed his parents home is constructed. Concrete construction. Hurricane windows. All doors open out so they cannot blow in. The garage doors are about 400 pounds. They put a two by six along door, parallel to ground, behind the car and have someone hold it and then back car into it board for extra security. I cannot recall all he told me but it is fascinating.

      1. I will.

        They are in a condo with the same specs and with two shelters on the property. They are building a new home and the dad has been cleaning up loose stuff around it but the builder left loose tiles on the roof. Arghhh

        JPD is there a side of a hurricane that is most likely to produce tornadoes?

        1. Right of the center is more favorable, but with this storm it literally could be anywhere, at leadtnlooking st.my euro service tornsdobthreat.

  10. So why is the turn I thought was going to happen sooner actually going to happen later? Basic. The center and circulation is close enough to and over, respectively, the island nation of Cuba. This is resulting in a friction and a drag on the storm, which is trying to turn it to the left and prolonging its westward movement, resulting in a later northward turn.

    2. Thanks TK

      Unlike Harvey will Irma be a fast mover? It seems folks in Ft Myers area are hearing five hours in and out??

  13. Irma will certainly be no Harvey in terms of movement, as it will not stall at all. Harvey was a rarity, not in that it stalled near the Gulf of Mexico because many storms have, but because it was literally stalled in a zone that was only a few hundred miles wide to receive the maximum flooding. It was like losing a weather version of Russian roulette.

    Irma will be moving at a slow to moderate speed but steadily and that will spare the region even worse flooding.

    2. I must have listened and had some actually sink in. I knew Harvey was an anomaly :). See how well you all educate. But I had not heard anything about Irma do truly appreciate the comparison. I will pass it on. Excellent as always

  16. Irma looks to be weakening actually. It will do so considerably if it makes landfall with Cuba before attempting to reintensify during its trek toward FLA.

  18. 00z model data starting to come in and I’d guess it’s another 10 to 20 mile westward shift. Perhaps a landfall in fort Myers/Naples area and the center very close to the west coast of Florida all the way to the panhandle. Nuts …..

  22. TK,

    Quick question. The models have shifted further west is there any concern that the eye will stay over water for longer time maintaining Irmas strength and ride along Florida’swest coast?

  23. I can’t speak for TK but I would say that is a huge concern. An even bigger concern is that this thing has strengthened back to a cat 5 when the eye and entire southern half of the storms circulation is over mountainous land. I fear it could restrengthen even more once it pulls away from Cuba and back over the open 90 degree water.

    1. CLEARLY emerging back off of the coast of CUBA. I fear how much it may
      strengthen over night. I’ll be all over it in the AM.

      This is absolutely frightening and that ain’t no hype. This has caused the largest evacuations in the history of the USA.

  26. Enhanced satellite clearly shows some warming of cloud tops the last few hours and this should translate to a slight weakening as we go through the morning.

    This longer interaction with Cuba is going to be a help to Florida, because of several reasons…

    1) It may end up a little weaker than if it had stayed more over water.

    2) Its northward turn comes later, sparing the Miami area a more direct hit from the stronger side of the hurricane, which will now be further way than with a sooner turn.

    3) Even though this becomes a worst-case scenario for the Keys, this is because of the more direct-hit trajectory there. Not to downplay what will be a major storm, but areas such as Tampa end up not seeing a worst case scenario like their 2 largest hurricane strikes (1848 and 1921) because the trajectory is up the coast instead of directly in off the Gulf of Mexico. This will make a huge difference in storm surge for Tampa Bay. Even if the hurricane were to get its center offshore, the surge would not be as great as if the hurricane were moving east northeast over or just north of them. In fact, if Irma’s center should pass east of Tampa, a northeast wind would potentially LOWER the water level in the bay. It has happened in the past with that and other bays.

    So, maybe not great hope, but a few minor silver linings in an otherwise dire situation we don’t often see in any given location. This gives you an idea of how low the odds are of a direct hit from a major hurricane, even in a part of the world that is very active for tropical cyclone activity.

  29. AS TK predicted, IRMA has weakened SIGNIFICANTLY as of the 8AM advisory:

    …HURRICANE IRMA HITTING HARD THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA…
    …TERRAIN OF CUBA WEAKEN THE HURRICANE BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
    ANTICIPATED…

    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…22.6N 79.6W
    ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
    ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…937 MB…27.67 INCHES

    1. Still no slouch-a-cane, but better than it was. I know it will restrengthen anyway over water somewhat but any power that can be knocked out of that at any time is good when it comes to impact.

      Small consolation, but something.

      1. For sure. I am forwarding your remarks above to son in law for him to send to his parents in Naples. Much appreciated

  30. I listened to a man being interviewed on Ilamorada. He and his family have decided to stay in their home. He said they are on higher ground. Admittedly, I have not been to islamorada since my 20s, but I don’t recall much that could be considered high land. I certainly respect his right to make whatever decision he wants. However, the chances of someone having to rescue them eventually are pretty high. It isn’t just his life at risk.

    I also listened to hurricane chasers in the lower keys. TK, or anyone, may I assume they do not stay for the arrival of Irma

    1. Some do, some don’t. I know of a few that are “anchored” in parking garages in southern FL, but I don’t know of any specifically in the Keys. I’m sure someone is there.

      1. Interesting and thanks, TK. I tend to get that. I’m not so sure I get parents deciding for children….even o,dear children.

    2. He probably should do what that Texas official suggested to those in his county who decided to stay during Harvey.

      Write your name or ssn on your wrist.

      1. Agree, Tom. My sister in law said that the GA governor has told those along the coast to do the same and has said they will not go in during the storm to rescue

  31. With the new westward track of Irma, the evacuation of Savannah GA was for naught but still a very prudent move by local officials there. With human lives it is always better safe than sorry. I hope that major evacuations days in advance as opposed to mere hours in advance of storms will be the norm from now on. It takes time to make preparations and decisions.

    The more I think of it, Houston and vicinity should have been evacuated. There were plenty of other locations within the state to seek shelter unlike Florida.

    1. Good comment and I agree, Philip. My father and mother in law evacuated several times for naught and never minded.

  32. I know Irma is the focus right now, but what are the chances we get Jose up here on the 20th? I know it’s 10 days or so away, but I need to get out of here on the 20th for business. GFS is all over the place, but the Euro now hangs it off the mid Atlantic coast at day 10.

  34. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/jsl0-lalo.gif

    It’s scary when using either a ruler ….. or your thumb and index finger … to capture the true core of the hurricane, which I take to be the red area surrounding the center and then transpose that to where the center may be near ft Myers/Naples.

    Also, of course I’m thrilled Cuba weakened Irma, but I have visions of people waking up this morning down there, seeing the weakening and saying, “see, I’m glad I stayed”

    1. I’d be surprised if the storm isnt back up to 140-150mph by the time it makes landfall in Florida. Wait till it gets back over those open 90 degree waters….

    1. One for the GFS, a few days ago showing Jose hanging around, then being near the east coast again. (that’s EURO : 10,000,000 , GFS : 1)

      1. So, yes I would agree. But as you stated, it is 10 days out.
        Let’s see if this morning’s run has it in a similar position.

  37. Jose, is catching my eye, with they sparatic movement it is projected by the models. Euro and GFS has it in similar locations this morning off the mid atlantic coast, GFS then sends it up to New England

    1. Oh and how about the fact that all the models have been very bad in predicting the intensity of these storms, usually under doing it. I believe it was the GFS which showed the strength of the IRMA first, might not of been the correct track.

      1. But it’s pressure forecast (and some of the intensity forecasts) were way off as well. Been verifying these.

        GFS is not reliable beyond maybe 48 hours.

  38. After looking at the incoming 12z spaghetti plots, it’s a possible scenario that the left half of the center or even the center itself remains out in the Gulf of Mexico to a location that is well NORTH, northwest of TAMPA.

    1. The trend west continues….we are going to have a Panama City landfall before long! We’ll have the entire Florida coastline evacuated!

    2. You are very much on to something.

      12z ECMWF from last Saturday had IRMA’s actual 12z today strength and location almost exact.

  44. It appears high tide is running in the 2 to 3 am tide period on the west coast of Florida from Naples to Tampa during the 9/9 to 9/11 time period.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?cone#contents

    Lining that up against the track and expected times, Tampa area unfortunately sees the center pass just an hour before high tide. Naples and Ft Myers, perhaps they get somewhat closer to low tide.

    The tidal range is about 2.5 ft which doesn’t seem like much, however 2.5 ft extra (high tide) or 2.5 ft lower (low tide) definitely will affect how many square miles of land go under water from the salt water storm surge.

  45. Hmmm Nam keeps IRMA off shore up the West Coast of Florida. Even turns NNW!!

    This would pump some water into Tampa Bay for sure.

    1. I know it’s the NAM, but quite possible.

      Every 6 hrs, the trend has been 10 to 20 miles west. Until there comes a run or 2 when the trend finally halts, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another 20 to 30 or 40 mile westward track to what the track currently is.

  48. Wow! Lots of lives disrupted and millions expended on a hurricane that may not have a larger effect as once thought on Florida Thank God! But I’m worried about people getting complacent now that Irma keeps changing. Could Irma now get back to cat 5 and strike panhandle where people probably have evacuated to? Very frustrating for forecasters and people of Fl, GA, SC..

    1. Instead of being thankful that they will be spared much worse, many will expend the energy trashing forecasts.

      Thankfully, the majority will not do this, but any amount of it is negative for the future.

  50. 2Z GFS has Irma up to 946mb As it emerges off of he coast of Cuba due to the
    land interaction, BUT after stting over the water, it re-intensifies to 896MB!!!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090912/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_2.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090912/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_4.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090912/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_5.png

    Then 915 MB At mainland Florida landfall (or very close)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090912/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png

  51. I hope eastern residents who haven’t evacuated don’t get complacent due to the western track and stay indoors and not venture outside to take pictures, etc. until Irma has totally crossed the border.

  52. An offshore track, while not good at all for Tampa, is still better than the scenarios of 1868 and 1921, in terms of storm trajectory.

  54. Looking at satellite and radar, I believe Irma will be making slow separation from the Cuba coast going forward. 2 reasons : movement switching from 280 degrees to perhaps 290 or 300 degrees and the outline of the Cuba coastline to Irma’s west northwest.

Comments are closed.