Thursday Forecast

288 Comments

3:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Cold front #1 pushes offshore today and takes the higher humidity and more frequent showers with it, but some instability coming in behind the front may still trigger a few showers through the afternoon. Cold front #2 pushes through from west to east on Friday and will have less moisture to work with but still may trigger a shower. This opens the door for a cooler air mass for the weekend, and mainly dry weather, although some cold air aloft may still allow some pop up showers Saturday. By Monday we’ll be into a mini warming trend.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers early to mid morning. Partly cloudy remainder of day with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70-75. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Passing showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
September 12 should be fair and warmer. Will watch for some unsettled weather associated with the remains of Hurricane Irma in the September 13-14 period, as I still expect the hurricane to turn north coming through the southern Bahamas and parallel the East Coast of Florida, eventually making a landfall as a category 2 or 3 hurricane either on the coast of Georgia or South Carolina, then heading inland and weakening before the remains head toward the US Northeast. A trough moving through from the west may bring additional showers around September 15 with a cool finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
Will have to watch another tropical system (Jose) offshore but current thoughts are that it will stay fair out to sea and here we will see a fairly quiet pattern with near to above normal temperatures.

288 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  10. Seems subdued this am and for good reason. Or maybe it is just me. Trying to wrap my mind and emotions around all of this power and destruction is so very difficult.

    1. My friend went through 100 mph winds in Hawaii years ago and could not believe how powerful it was. This, of course is much greater.

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks like the Charleston area of South Carolina is really under the gun.
    Irma looks to stay “just” off the East coast of Florida, but with it’s path coming up
    from the South and paralleling the coast, what will it do with a storm surge?
    That is a long fetch of strong winds blowing into the coast. This could be really
    serious to coastal Florida.

    1. I had the oddest sense when I woke up this morning that Charleston might be Irma’s destination. I hope I am wrong. With sea level around the battery, it would be devastating. I think that area is around 18-20 feet and Mt. Pleasant where my in-laws lived is 16. That said, she is looking as if it will not be just Charleston.

      1. I am not a Met as you well know, however, everything I am
        looking at points to the possibility that Charleston could
        be in the cross hairs. Stay tuned for additional information
        as it becomes available.

        One good thing: By the time Irma gets up there, IF it gets
        there, it will be somewhat weaker than now possibly as a high end CAT 2 (ie 105 or 110 mph) or a CAT 3 (115 or 120 mph). My concern is that somehow IRMA is still a CAT 4 when reaching SC.

        Stay tuned. We’ll have to see how close it gets to the Florida coast and what the interaction with the coast does to Irma.
        Often that causes “some” weakening,.

        1. Looks like the 12z spaghetti plots are in close agreement now, all the way into South Carolina.

          I have big concerns about Irma’s strength coming into the Carolinas.

          It has to cross the 85F to 90F water in the southernmost Bahamas and then the Gulf stream.

          I’m struggling to see much projected shear along its path and wonder if the departing trof far to its northeast will cause excessive ventilation at upper levels on its north and northeast side.

          1. My Fear is that IRMA (especially seeing
            that Northward wobble) stays sufficiently
            off shore to avoid land interaction and stay over
            the very warm water. IF it were to do that and
            strike Charleston, it “could” very well still be
            a CAT 5. Something to really watch carefully.

            I know that the “official” forecasts call for a continuing weakening of IRMA and that
            should it strike Charleston, it is forecast to
            be a CAT 2 or CAT 3. I know this.

            HOWEVER, IRMA was NEVER forecast
            to become a CAT 5. So much for intensity
            forecasts.

            1. Hugo was a cat 4 but if memory serves, it came straight in. Or close to straight.

              With the sea levels in Charleston and islands nothing is a good scenario.

  12. Saw videos of the devastation on Barbuda and St. Maarten last night. Can’t believe the utter destruction. Am worried about Florida and South Carolina.

    Along Florida it will be at least a CAT 4 with a chance it is still a CAT 5.

    In SC, likely to be a CAT 3 with a chance of CAT 4.

    1. Some of those depend upon the timing. Interesting to look at these as
      there are “some” that actual keep Irma a CAT 5 all the way to Charleston.
      However, there are an equal number that have IRMA a CAT 2.

      So what is most likely? A CAT 3???

      1. A reasonable expectation ….

        I wonder, even if its a CAT 3 by landfall, if it might still have a CAT 5 storm surge, because if its a CAT4/CAT5 paralleling the Fl coastline, then that kind of surge will have been built and head right into the coast in SC

        I think this happened in Katrina. She was a CAT 3 at landfall, but had a CAT 5 storm surge because it had been that for so long out in the Gulf.

    1. WOW!! That looks a bit more than a wobble. We shall see.
      In any case, it takes IRMA that much farther away from the Hispanola
      land mass and greatly REDUCES and land mass influences on IRMA.

      I wonder if IRMA doesn’t re-intensify. It almost looks as IF that is exactly
      what is happening on the latest frames of the loop.

  16. EURO is worst case scenario for Miami. If it stays parallel to east side of Florida like Matthew did last year no reason to believe when it makes a landfall in South Carolina it won’t be a strong category 3 boarder line category 4. No solution at the present time is good for U.S.

  18. New updated track comes at 11am so will see if any changes happen. Be interested in seeing the 12z runs today.

  19. Not that we can trust the NAMS with Tropical systems, but they portray a devastating
    blow to South Florida. Brutal.

  20. Irma down to 175 mph and 921 mb

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    New Track

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145924_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Intensity forecast

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/1500Z 20.4N 69.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
    12H 08/0000Z 21.1N 71.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
    24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 74.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
    36H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
    48H 09/1200Z 23.1N 78.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
    72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
    96H 11/1200Z 30.1N 80.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
    120H 12/1200Z 35.0N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND

          1. It almost always does which is why can’t really focus on a landfall point until 24 hours and in…

              1. Good news. Reading the FL news, it sure seems as if whoever is organizing is doing a great job

                I’m really surprised SC is not doing more for evacuation.

  26. Those wind fields expand out from Irma so even if the center never comes on shore your going to have damage just like was the case with Matthew last year for eastern parts of Florida.

    1. How far inland would the hurricane and even TS winds go if the eye wereto remain off shore. Right side is highest winds…correct? Especially north right side ?

    1. Good find JJ. Frankly, for some of these cities, I honestly think that the
      wind estimates “may” be a bit on the low side, especially for Savannah and Charleston.

    2. Excellent find, JJ. Some of the storm surges (FL and SC) are going be large enough to do considerable damage.

  29. Wind and storm surge will be the big things with Irma. Thankfully no flooding rains like we saw with Harvey since Irma will be moving.

  30. My opinion, that pretty useless. How do they know what its going to be? Weather optics? Who the hell are they. Wilmington gets 70 mph winds and 3-6″ of rain? Ok, we’ll see. If Irma goes ashore near Savannah or Charleston, ILM gets maybe 40 MPH gusts, maybe.
    Data on sites like that just scare people. But thats my opinion.
    If i lived 15 feet or lower ASL, right on the water, I’d probably get out. 5-6 blocks off the water, 20 feet ASL, newer house on pilings, category 3 or lower, i’d go to publix, stock up on groceries, gas for the generator and ride it out. But then again I’ve been with in 3 miles of an F5, and rode out an F3 in the walk-in fridge in a Jack in the box, so not much bothers me.
    My father went through Fran, Bertha, and Floyd on Carolina beach. Two were a direct hit. Granted he was 6 blocks off the ocean and 20 feet ASL, but still.
    All that said, a Cat 4 or 5 I’d be gone. Big difference between a 3 and a 4/5

  33. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan.
    13 of 20 GFS Ensemble members bring #Irma inland over South Florida. Landfall becoming more likely.

  34. JPDave this tweet about HWRF from meteorologist John Homenuk continuing this bad news for South Florida.
    Brand new HWRF is just about worst case scenario for Miami and SE Florida. Landfall of destructive #Irma on Sunday.

  35. I would not be surprised if this think strengthens some as it will get into some very warm waters as it gets close to Florida as no land mass will be disrupting it.

  37. WOW!!! WTF!!!

    Euro takes IRMA up the spine of Florida!! that is to say straight up the middle
    of the penisula!!!!

  39. This is getting absolutely FRIGHTENING!!!

    AND what IF they are WRONG about intensity and this thing comes ashore as
    a CAT 5?????

    Of course, a CAT 4 would be bad enough.

    1. Damn. If it comes in at even a 4 and travels up the spine, it could well take the entire state for it to weaken enough to not destroy a good portion of FL.

        1. Hugo came directly in as a 4 and did significant damage in Charlotte. That is roughly 200 miles. I checked quickly and that would be about half of florida…up to about Lakeland.

          Question. Certainly, when a hurricane hits land, it weakens. But if it were to travel up a penninsula with part over warmer water, would it tend to weaken less than if it were all over land?

          1. I would think the circulation would last longer over Florida because you never really get any elevation or rough terrain in Florida, like you do in the western Carolina’s.

            1. Thanks, Tom. Much appreciated.

              My friend in Charleston just emailed and said they would head inland Monday? Isn’t her leading edge expected in the Charleston area Sunday pm?

              1. I believe Sunday is the general time frame, not sure what part of the day.
                Per TWC, I guess people in NC during Matthew understandably moved inland and took themselves away from the coastal threat, but ended up putting them in a fresh water flooding threat.

                So, when heading inland, people should give thought to what direction inland because there can be different threats inland.

                1. Thanks, Tom. He is on the coast of Charleston. And will head to NC. He has relatives there. Your point is excellent and appreciated.

  41. Remember those very warm waters as it gets close to south Florida. I would not be surprised if Irma strengthened some more than currently forecasted assuming it does not interact with Cuba or some sort of wind shear happens. I don’t see those things happening.

          1. A chance for sure, but there must be a reason
            NHC has it as a 4. Are we missing anything?
            OR is it simpy physics. Ie the storm simply
            cannot maintain that intensity for that long
            a period of time. Like a figure skater doing
            a spin. That cannot maintain it forever.

            1. Well, a small outer part of the circulation is over higher terrain areas of Haiti and Dominican Republic and eventually Cuba which may be adding a bit of drier air into the system. But, I think they know it’s a powerhouse for another 96 hrs ….. Perhaps going with the idea of a continuing expanse of the wind field with the slightest reduction in the winds overall.

            2. Upper air.
              Water temperature is only ONE ingredient.

              Irma will be a CAT 3 at landfall in GA or SC if the center stays E of Florida’s eastern coast.

              If Irma should manage to get its center over Florida for a time, then re-emerge, it will probably be a CAT 2 for a second landfall in GA or SC.

                1. Straight into FL I’d say still 4. It’s going to have a lot of interruption from the south as it goes by Cuba. To get a 5 into the coast it usually has to be free of obstacles within a considerable distance and also have a faster forward speed in most cases. That’s why we see them so rarely. That’s not likely to change.

  44. Last night Eric mentioned that the water temps just south of Florida are upper 80s to low 90s…that is BEYOND INSANE!!!

    Wouldn’t want to dip my toes into THAT water…OUCH!!!

    1. It’s actually not even insane. It’s slightly above normal. Upper 80s and lower 90s water temps feel very comfortable. Unfortunately just about every TV outlet uses the not-everyone-knows-this as a way to make it sound more impressive than it is.

        1. I good from 65 and up. 😀 😀 😀

          In Bermuda one time, I was the ONLY one in the
          Water in February. (water temp about 65)
          Air temp about 72.

  47. I have noticed that just about every day, starting around 4 PM, this blog goes to
    sleep and doesn’t pick up again until 7 or 8 PM. 😀 😀 😀

  48. Just an observation:

    The 3KM NAM has the pressure of IMRA MUCH closer to reality than do either
    the 32KM or 12KM NAM. I know we have been warned that the NAM is a lousy
    hurricane model. Just saying is all. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Funny story TJ. My wife and I were at Marshall’s Newton.
      My wife’s back was killing her, so at check out she sat in the car while
      I checked out. The clerk was a guy with an Embroidered TJ
      on his shirt. So I was chatting with him and asked if he were a
      weather enthusiast. Sadly, he was not so CLEARLY he was not you. 😀 😀 😀

      After that he and other cleark asked my If I were a weather man because
      they thought they had seen me on TV. HILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLARIOUS!!!!

    1. Yikes!

      I can’t recall EVER seeing such MASSIVE evacuation orders in my lifetime.
      Of course when I was younger they never did such things. There should have
      been an evacuation order for CAMILLE and also for ANDREW. I’m not even sure there was enough or soon enough for KATRINA.

      1. There was not enough soon enough for Katrina and they never closed roads going in. Of course they then housed folks in the dome INSIDE of the city. Mac’s dad had a melt down when he heard that pre-katrina.

    2. Thank you, JJ. My sister in law in Atlanta said GA declared the counties along the coast disaster areas either this am or last night. I will let her know this. She has been out the past couple of days preparing for loss of power just in case.

  52. Haha! That’s funny JP. I’m sure you and I have crossed paths as I’m in west Roxbury a lot for work. As a matter of fact I think we use the same ups store on vfw parkway. So maybe I’ll bump into you.

    1. So it was NOT so far fetched to ask the clerk, was it? 😀 😀 😀

      I do use that UPS store on occasion. I frequent the CVS store there very often and get a weekly Pizza at the Bertucci’s there. Either Friday, Saturday or Sunday, depending on what we are doing and what we feel like eating. We’re getting
      older and neither one of us likes to cook at home (Yes, I can cook and make just about anything, although it NEVER tastes like when my wife makes it!!!)

      1. I just have to say that as I wife myself I have always, silently but deeply, appreciated – for years now – how much you adore, respect, and obviously care deeply for your wife JpDave. I like to assume my husband is on another blog doing the same 😉

  56. My oldest’s childhood friend is visiting Miami with her husband and two little ones. They could not get a flight until Friday. Me? I’d be in a car headed to another airport or just out of dodge.

  58. Latest track of Irma has shifted to west with more impacts for inland areas of Florida as well as areas on the coast.

  59. A rather alarming model consensus for a direct hit on south Florida this evening. There’s still wiggle room, but at this point I would say I expect a landfall in that area. Regardless, the margin of error is such that anyone in south Florida should be preparing for a direct hit. For intensity… we’ll see how close it comes to Cuba, but as long as it does not make landfall (and there’s still room for it to do that), it will not weaken much. We saw it pass just north of the very rugged island of Hispaniola today with little impact. Otherwise, shear remains low, and SSTs inch up a little. She’ll be a Cat 5, or at least a strong and large Cat 4. Either way, it’s not good. Not to mention the islands that continue to be impacted, including the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

    Meanwhile, behind Irma, Jose is now a major hurricane, heading right for the same Leeward Islands devastated by Irma. Hurricane watches up for some of them. Really not much to say, it’s a disastrous hurricane season. Very sad.

  60. Looking at 18z GFS it has shifted a bit to the west where looking at this run and 12z EURO there not that far apart. Bad news for Florida and bad news for Leeward Islands with the current track of Jose.

  61. If you think Irma’s forecast is tough, try Jose… We know it’ll track close to the northern Leewards. But beyond about four days out, good luck. Looks like it’ll turn east. It’s possible it gets picked up by a trough and swept fully out to sea from there. It’s also possible it doesn’t, and basically gets stuck and tries to loop back. That will be another headache going forward.

  62. I just saw a graphic of Andrew and Irma comparing size. Good heavens. Irma is huge…it is currently about the size of Texas.

  63. Watching Jose on the 18z GFS is making my head spin with the loops it is taking in the Atlantic. Cuts through the CAPE then into Maine toward the end of run. 12z EURO also looks to do that loop but at the end of its run sitting out in the Atlantic.

  64. JJ mentioned 18Z GFS. For a while it looks like the NAM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090718/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_12.png

    This doesn’t bode well for the Miami area:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090718/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_13.png

    And even up the East coast a ways:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090718/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_14.png

    A few thoughts. I believe some of this has been mentioned:

    1. Florida is Flat.
    2. There is a lot inland Water in South Florida from the coast all the way to lake
    Ochechobee.
    3. There will be a ton rainfall out ahead of Irma keeping things very moist.

    Add that all up and it spells maintaining decent intensity for a fair amount
    of time inland. Very very dangerous situation!!!

    1. You as well as Tom answered my earlier question. I also saw a graphic that has 90 mph winds all the way to FL/GA border. If she comes up mid FL. Not sure if that is accurate but wow.

  65. This isn’t good. FWIW, the 18Z HMON INTENSIFIES IRMA
    once again between it’s pass by Cuba and just before it hits Florida.

    Note: Off of Hispanola, 922 MB (about right on target)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090718/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_1.png

    Approach to FL, 874 MB !!!! 48 MB drop from what it was this afternoon!!!!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090718/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_1.png

    Now, I am NOT saying this model will verify, but it is a Scary WHAT IF!

    1. AND goes along with the above discussion about the possibilities of
      it being at CAT 5 at landfall in Florida.

  66. Your going to have hurricane forced winds inland areas of the peninsula of Florida with the current track.

  67. Another stat here on Irma from meteorologist Mike Masco
    It’s official: No storm on record, anywhere on the globe, has maintained winds 185mph or above for as long as #Irma

    2. If our methods of measuring wind now were in place for decades, this record would not belong to Irma.

  68. The forecast at the current moment for Irma is the worst I have seen for a land falling hurricane in the U.S. since Katrina in 2005.

      1. Classic double eyewall pattern in the wind data. Eyewall replacement in progress after a failed attempt last night.

        1. Thanks WxWatcher.

          Can your briefly explain what that looks like in the wind data as I don’t know how to recognize that.

          1. I’ll try! Note, in the graph I’ve linked, how the surface wind (top right) shows a double peaked pattern as the aircraft approaches the eye. It’s most notable in that first, lower double peak as they approach the eye compared to when they exit. The first peak is the new eyewall, with the second the existing eyewall, and a “moat” in between. When the first peak exceeds the second, you know a cycle is almost done. They’re getting close to equal in that southeast quadrant now.

            https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-1811A-IRMA_timeseries.png

            2. Also, to clarify, for evidence that a cycle is nearing completion, the first peak should be higher on the inbound pass, but the second one would be higher as they are outbound. In this case, the original NW quadrant of the old eye remains very intense, with only a small second peak. So she still has a ways to go with this.

      2. On the SSE of the eyewall, the winds were 120 knots or so.

        In 10 minutes, the data will update and we’ll see what’s on the northwest side of the eyewall.

    1. So pressure hanging relatively stable as extrapolated pressures are usually slightly lower than pressures measured by a dropsonde.

  72. 919 mb

    One thing I noticed. As early as 8am this morning, hurricane force winds extended out 50 miles from the center:

    That’s been increasing slowly throughout the day and on the 8pm public advisory, it says they extend out 70 miles from the center.

  74. Savannah GA is already being evacuated.

    My father was born there and moved to Portsmouth VA at six months then met my mother here in Boston while going to college, then the rest is history. 🙂

  76. Too bad we’re in the clouds so far tonight. Severe solar storm in progress after the strongest recorded solar flare of our current solar cycle yesterday. Widespread auroras likely tonight. If it clears out, look outside!

  78. Not gonna make it to the end of the game. Thanks everyone for the great discussions today. As I head to sleep, prayers for all in the path of Irma

    1. Yup, been pretty uneventful so far, both with the banner ceremony and the play on the field. Hytower just went down 🙁

    2. I figured this game would be close, and their defense is going to give up some points. But I think we can overcome that with offense early in the season while they get the defensive issues fixed.

      They’ll win this game and move on.

  82. I was gonna be generous and call the Pats defense mediocre, but let’s face it, at least tonight, they’re awful. We’ll need to average 40 points a game. Which isn’t impossible with our offense, but it should not have to be that hard.

    1. I think they’ll get by averaging 25-30 points for a bit until they make some adjustments – and they will.

      You won’t do this, but a lot of people will conclude that the team sucks even if they win tonight. 😉

      1. KC is always tough on us. Injuries not helping. I’m sure they’ll be fine, especially in the division, but a loss tonight may not be the worst thing. Either way, an early reality check.

  83. Bad to lose the opener. 6 minutes left so it’s doable. But they about to be down by 8. That miss on 4th down where they got no points hurt them.

  84. Andy Reid games are always hard for the pats. We will likely loose this game especially with all the darn injuries.

    1. Defense needs to be able to stop the run and actually compete against multiple big receivers. Patriots defense has been riddled with vets going down and its filled with Noobs.

    1. Don’t forget – he’s my age! I don’t think I could run around the block even if a monster was chasing me.

  86. Patriots need to work on short-yardage situations. In theory you should be able to get a half yard or less by running the ball with little problem. Teams shouldn’t be embarrassed to simply have the QB to step back and throw a short pass…just get the first down! It’s not against the rules. I hope Brady considers it next time.

  87. Brady sucked last night. Yes, the Pat’s defense was horrible, but I hang this loss
    on 12. Is this a sign he is done OR did he just have a bad game? Time will tell.

    2. Timing is everything. It was on a major fault line.

      I just said to my son to wait for the net stories that link a normal tension release on a fault line to a natural hear transfer mechanism in the atmosphere. 😉

      1. I honestly do not think anyone is doing that. Perhaps media but then if people let their views be dictated by media, they are in a world of hurt anyway.

        I think it is simply overwhelming to think of the struggles of folks in many locations all at once. I may have recently said here or it may have been elsewhere….in 1989 we had Hugo and then very soon thereafter the Oakland quake hit. My brother in law (lives just outside of Oakland) said he hoped that the quake would not take from the Charleston disaster relief. It is actually what my post last night said……I think for some reason the climate change discussion gets in the way rather than the other way around.

          1. Agree. But we all need to be responsible for the media we choose. Not you for sure but I’m tired of folks blaming media for their lack of knowledge

            2. It is a huge problem which is one of the reasons I often bring it up. That might be out of frustration. My part in fixing the problem by being responsible myself has virtually no impact in the grand scheme, but I will go on…

  95. Irma having a little bit of trouble overnight with an eyewall replacement cycle. That’s what has caused the weakening. The next 48 hours up to landfall will be interesting. Watch the pressure readings from recon today. She’s 927mb now. If that holds steady or creeps up towards 935mb, she may just hold steady-state as large, strong Cat 3 or 4 until landfall. If that 927 starts sliding towards 920, she could easily go back to a Cat 5, and may deepen to lower pressures than we’ve seen so far with her. Either way will be very dangerous, but I’ll be hoping for the former, although my instinct tells me the latter is more likely barring impacts from Cuba.

    1. If the HMON has any validity whatsoever, watch for lower pressures.
      I have no idea how good or bad this model is. I can only say that it has had the
      pressure lower than what verified. ie 0Z run last night (8PM) has pressure
      for 12Z today (8AM) at 910 mb. 8AM updat had pressure at 927mb, a discrepancy of 17 mb. SO that right there is a red flag. But let’s be generous
      and say it was of by 20 mb. The at landfall with the 6Z HMON run,
      it has Irma at about 882 mb. Add 20mb and we still have 902 mb.
      Add 30 mb and we still have 912 mb.

      So, there is still a chance that IRMA hits Florida at CAT 5. Yes I know
      the “official” forecast is for CAT 4.

      1. NHC discussion concerning the above:

        Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
        environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a
        slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at
        least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After
        landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to
        land interaction and increased shear, although Irma’s large wind
        field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large
        area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some
        additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement, followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
        coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
        If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along the later parts of the track.

  96. Just putting out there from last night as I think, each time the patriots have lost the home opener, they went to win the superbowl. Giants vs patriots superbowl is still very much alive.

  98. 3KM NAM a little stronger and slightly more East.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017090812/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_41.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017090812/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_42.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017090812/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_43.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017090812/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_44.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017090812/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_45.png

  99. Eric tweeting that eye wall replacement almost complete could be back at Cat 5 and will have a very large eye when done.

  101. 11AM advisory, Irma still CAT 4, 150 mph winds and 927 mb pressure.
    So the pressure has not dropped in the last 3 hours. That might mean something.

    2. Hopefully after Jose passes the islands it’s currently near, he curves out to sea. Model ensembles seem to indicate that. Don’t need anymore storms over the same area that’s for sure.

  105. Sorry to see the further trend west …..

    I was hoping that by Irma traveling in the eastern third of Florida, that perhaps the front right quadrant winds might edge just offshore, even if by a few miles.

    Now its time to see if any further strengthening comes with the eye replacement complete, the light shear and the nearly 90F water it still has to traverse.

    1. Not to mention a very significant risk of tornadoes in all areas
      to the East of the center.
      As if it’s not bad enough.

    1. Eyewall replacement is nearly complete but note how the eye is getting closer and closer to Cuba and the mountainous terrain in the northern part of the island. I believe this is going to impact the storm’s ability to re-strengthen in the short term.

  108. That 12z GFS is track IMO is better than the more easterly track. Landfall is over the Everglades and is virtually uninhabited. That puts the catastrophic eyewall winds over the swamps and spares the metro Miami area. Lesser on shore winds (they will be more southerly, parallel to the coast) and lesser storm surge on the east coast as well. Check out this Google map vs the GFS tracks that Dave posted above:

    https://s26.postimg.org/oc0q05e4p/Capture.jpg

    Nobody lives there. One caveat though – the Everglades are all swamp land so the storm would likely not weaken as rapidly upon landfall.

  109. This is the first time in recorded history we have had two 150mph/Cat 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time.

    The good news is that it looks like Jose is not going to maintain that strength for long and gradually weaken as it turns north, then northeast out over the open Atlantic.

  112. Way too much to keep up on today… We know about Irma of course. Jose is now approaching Category 5 intensity. Katia looking more like a major hurricane in the SW Gulf. Throw in the major earthquake/tsunami last night, and an ongoing severe solar storm… yeah it’s busy out there.

  113. Irma’s projected path inching west… as it stands now a worst case scenario for Miami may be avoided. Hoping Cuba will disrupt it. It’s still struggling with the EWRC, most recent reported pressure 929mb, up a little. Have to watch out with the track, if it goes much further west, Tampa/St. Pete come into play.

      1. Right now it looks like the center will go through the central Keys. Significant impacts will be likely throughout the Keys.

      2. Keys are screwed either way but the current projected track or anything even further west is a better scenario for Miami.

        1. Thank you both. I cannot imagine the damage on the keys. I do not recall a hurricane going over the keys but I may have been either to young or have forgotten. I did find this.

          “The strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the state was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which crossed the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.35 inHg); it is also the strongest hurricane on record to strike the United StateS.”

    2. A slight jog west puts Naples and Fort Meyers in the cross hairs as well. That same area got rocked by Charlie in 2004.

      1. That is where my daughters inlaws are. They chose not to leave. But they are also a bit away from the coast

  114. I was checking traffic in FL and GA and SC. My sister in law said GA opened trump 16 west in all lanes. It seemed to be the best as far as not showing traffic problems. She also said roads are being monitored in GA and the monitors have gas. They will give folks enough to only get to the next town.

  115. Here’s the latest:
    2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8
    Location: 22.0°N 76.0°W
    Moving: W at 14 mph
    Min pressure: 925 mb
    Max sustained: 155 mph

  117. If that center comes across the northern part of Cuba it could weaken it some. With that said even if that happens I still see a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) making landfall in Florida.

  118. 965 mb all the way to the FL/GA border.

    These big systems don’t wind down easily, especially over a flat state like Florida with Gulf of Mexico inflow from both sides.

    I think the big ramp down will be noticeable once it gets a bit into Georgia.

  120. 12z Euro is horrible for Key West, Naples and Fort Meyers. And perhaps as far north as Tampa. The eyewall batters much of the west coast of FL not to mention the westerly track keeps the eye over water longer which could allow it more time to re-strengthen.

    Meanwhile, big sighs of relief in the Miami area with each successive model run….

  122. Will be in a nowcasting situation before too long with Irma. Always got watch those wobbles as Irma is approaching landfall in Florida.

  125. Going forward, with models, I’m looking at the euro 🙂 🙂 🙂

    No point wasting time on anything else 🙂 🙂

    Euro amazingly figures out so far in advance of all other models.

    2. Yes but hasn’t it been gradually shifting west? It’s not like it called this location 5 days ago. It has handle storm better absolutely.

      1. No but it has been leading the charge. Every time the track has shifted, it has been first to latch on and the other models have followed its lead.

  126. Charley was a compact CAT 4 storm. Irma is much larger storm and will affect more people than Charley did in Florida.

  127. The other thing with Charley models had it going into the Tampa area and then took the turn to the left in southern Florida. I would not be surprised if there is a surprise with Irma since these tropical systems have minds of their own.

  128. It doesn’t matter how well a model performed on storm #1. Storms #2, #3, etc. will all present their own issues. Analytical thinking is required in every case.

    Updating now.

    1. looks like just a wobble to me….I think it is still headed towards straddling the north shore of Cuba for awhile.

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