Wednesday Forecast

46 Comments

4:18PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
The humid showery pattern arrived as expected and will continue through Thursday morning with episodic showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been and will continue to be heavy. Even a few severe storms have occurred with local wind damage and a few more cannot be ruled out until the cold front moves offshore by midday Thursday. A second front will come along Friday and bring an afternoon shower threat. A pool of cooler air aloft may kick off a few spotty showers Saturday otherwise the weekend will be generally dry and cooler.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy with areas of light fog. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, any of which may be heavy. Humid. Temperatures holding in the 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH but gusty at times.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Occasional showers/thunderstorms, some of which can be heavy. Humid. Lows 60-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts at times.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy into late morning with areas of fog and occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. Clearing trend west to east midday and afternoon but an additional isolated shower possible. Starting humid, then slowly drying. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Passing showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
September 11-12 should be dry with a warming trend. Current thoughts are that the remains of Irma will come through this area as showers or rain during the September 13-14 period, pending its eventual track. Still feeling that the center of Irma will turn north and parallel the Florida East Coast then make a landfall somewhere from Georgia to North Carolina, weakening over the interior Southeast before heading northeastward. A trough moving through from the west may bring additional showers for the end of the period after any remains of Irma exit. This forecast will have to be fine-tuned due to the number of players that impact its outcome.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
Will have to watch another tropical system (Jose) offshore but early thoughts are that it will stay out to sea and here we will see a fairly quiet pattern with near to above normal temperatures.

46 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Just saw a recon pass through the western eye wall. Looking forward to seeing what the NHC has for pressure at 5pm. The extrapolated pressures are even lower than last night.

  4. In my opinion, the 12z GFS ensemble members and 18z hurricane models look fairly close to one another. Close paralleling of Florida east coast, then a landfall down in the southern Carolina’s.

    I’m looking forward to see if the 12z ECMWF ensemble joins in for consistency.

      1. I was more focused on the SC possibility. We have lots of friends in Charleston still. I just checked. No evac yet but they are still focused on the FL scenario. And said maybe evac in coming days I’m a bit surprised.

      1. NHC will play that scenario to make sure people prepare and/or evacuate where necessary. Ultimately I would not be surprised if they eventually shift that slightly east.

  11. Thanks TK
    This tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    Intense convection wrapping around the center of #Irma. Pressure dropping in latest recon OBS. She is strengthening once again.

  15. So many islands taking awful damage from Irma. To name a couple, St. Martin has been extensively damaged. The airport there is very famous, and has suffered heavy damage.
    In addition, much concern today has been on the small island of Barbuda, part of the nation of Antigua and Barbuda. Antigua was largely spared. However, Barbuda has been essentially out of contact with the world for close to 18 hours. Only now is some information trickling in. Miraculously, only one confirmed fatality so far. However, the island has literally been obliterated. According to their PM as of just minutes ago, it’s uninhabitable, with 90+% of structures destroyed.

    1. Fortunately, less than 2,000 people live on Barbuda. There are 80,000 who live on St Martin which also took a direct hit from the eye. Some of the photos and videos that are emerging are incredible. The scene at the end of the video I posted above is something you would see in a Hollywood movie. I’m afraid we are going to start to hear about many more injuries and fatalities from these islands in the days ahead.

  17. Most of the day, we were in the warm, tropical air in Marshfield, with Dp’s around 70F. Briefly around 4 to 5 pm, the wind briefly switched to NE and you could feel a small cool down. Now, we’re back to a south wind and its tropical again. Air feels like it has a ton of moisture in it and seeing what’s down the coast for rainfall, I could see a lot of rain overnight near this boundary in eastern areas.

  18. The wholesale destruction of a number of small islands, such as Barbuda, is tremendously sad. I. realize that only 1800 people inhabited Barbuda, but all have lost almost everything they had.

    If we rank natural disasters, my guess would be that earthquakes (and associated tsunami’s) are number one in terms of material damage and fatalities, and hurricanes and typhoons are probably second. They cause so much misery. While not a fan of President Trump I applaud his Administration’s handling of Harvey. Also, today’s deal struck between the Administration and the Democrats assures residents in the Harvey-stricken area that a continuous flow of federal resources will be allocated towards relief efforts and reconstruction.

    1. I agree, Joshua. It is heartwrenching. I’m watching coverage now. And Trump and our politicians have stepped up.

  21. Most recent recon plane pass through the eye having a couple of extrapolated pressures just under 910mb, at 909 mb.

    1. In contrast to the extrapolated pressures, the dropsonde pressure was 916mb. Winds of 145 knots, so very consistent with previous recon reports from the western side. But, that’s the western side. Wonder what winds they’ll get on the northeast side of the eyewall.

      I follow on tropical tidbits / aircraft recon

  23. Recon dropsonde, which is the official standard, measured 916mb. Those extrapolated readings often run low. Still, incredibly impressive that it is maintaining this intensity for this long. What will probably happen, as this EWRC continues, is winds will come down some. However, the storm’s overall size and wind field will expand. In time, the winds may increase again back to where they are now. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions support the potential for Cat 5 intensity all the way to FL.

  24. Thoughts on the potential northern extent of tropical storm / gale force winds well north of Irma in 120 hrs ??

    If Irma ends up along the SC coast at say 950 to 960 mb and there’s a 1030 mb high situated somewhere over the northeast, I wonder if the mid Atlantic (NC, Virginia, Maryland and maybe even southern NJ) could be under a rather tight pressure gradient well, well, well to the north of Irma’s center ????

  26. Crazy, weather happening all over the country. For those who have me on Facebook, You can look at what I think, won’t post it on hear. Lets just say, The amount of extremes we are seeing and how these extremes are increasing each year. It might not be effecting our area, or the same extremes happening but the extreme is becoming the norm.

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