Sunday Forecast

179 Comments

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)
The mild weekend will continue today, not totally sunny, but not bad at all for late January. The forecast for the AFC Championship game between the Patriots and Jaguars remains about the same: middle 40s at kick-off, upper 30s at game’s end, a light wind, and dry conditions. The nice weather comes to an end early in the week as a cold front drops innocuously southward across the region in the early hours of Monday and then sits just south of the region as low pressure heads for the Great Lakes. Eventually it turns wet with periods of rain developing by later Monday, though just enough cold air may be in place for a little snow and/or sleet over interior areas especially north central MA and southern NH for a time Monday night. By Tuesday morning, the front that went by as a cold front early Monday will head back north as a warm front and with the cold front on its heels we’ll see additional rainfall in the form of frequent rain showers, some heavy. By Wednesday, this is all gone and we’re into a period of windy, colder, dry weather which will last through Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-10 MPH, gusts to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain except light sleet/rain north central MA and southern NH afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except a period of snow and/or sleet possible interior MA/NH first. Lows 32-40 evening, rising into 40s overnight. Wind light NE to E, shifting to SE overnight.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers, some possibly heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 46-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Temperatures falling from the 40s to the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)
Fair and cold January 26 then fair and milder January 27 as high pressure dominates then moves off to the east. Expecting the storm track to take the next low through the Great Lakes and north of New England with a mild rain shower episode January 28 but a quick switch to windy/colder with a few snow showers possible January 29 then fair and chilly weather January 30.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
A fair/cold end to January and a milder and unsettled start to February are the current medium range indications.

179 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. The 1978 write-up on the last blog was awesome! Looking forward to part 2. What a weather pattern that was.

    Keeping an eye on the Monday night-Tuesday system as that is the only game in town right now. The snow/ice potential to start would intrigue me more if we had a colder preceding air mass in place, or if the low track was a little further east or showed signs of earlier secondary development. With none of those things happening, I think the wintry precip is a non-issue for our region, and you’ll have to get into central and northern New England to have much impact from that. Even there, it goes to rain. Also watching the wind potential. Models showing up to 65-70kts at 925mb, very impressive. Best shot of mixing that down will be in any convective activity. If any thunderstorms develop, localized gusts of 50-60mph would be possible. Progressive nature of the storm and lack of snow cover will greatly limit the flooding threat. Probably not much more than an inch of rain for most places.

    Go Pats!!!

  3. Based on days 11-15 I would say that any precip will be of the non-frozen type for commemoration week.

  4. Greetings from Kapolei, Oahu!

    TK your post about January 1978 was outstanding. I would absolutely love to see you write a book about your first passion. Your narrative style is outstanding. One of my clients was the former writer in residence at Harvard and is now at BU. He offers a workshop from his Newton home where authors – both amateur and professional – can help each other create works of narrative non fiction. Let me know if you’d like me to put you in contact with him.

    As I write this from my room at Aulani my slider is open and the sound of the surf and the trade winds are filling my room — yet TK’s essay actually made me homseick for New England. Incredible.

    Ps – will be cheering on our team from a poolside cabana (with tv) at 10am HST. I would argue I may have even better seats then the folks at Gillette.

    GO PATS!!!!

  7. Just to note, coming up next year 2019 will be the 50th anniversary of the 100-hour snowstorm that produced 2 feet of snow throughout the area. If I am not mistaken that was Bruce Schwoegler’s debut on WBZ TV as well. I only have vague memories of that but I do recall getting a nice couple days off from school as a 3rd grader.

    I have since learned here on this blog that winter appeared to be “over” up until that particular storm so I will assume 1968-69 was a “back loaded” winter. 😉

    Is it me or are there a lot of anniversaries lately? 🙂

    Anyway…one storm at a time!!

    2. Boy do I ever remember that one and also the one before it, Feb 11th
      I Believe.

      re: the 100 Hour storm

      I remember Don Kent was on the Sunday evening before the storm.
      It was a mild damp day. He said there was a “Vest Pocket” low moving
      up the coasts and that slowly colder air would be drawn in. I was on my COOP job at Air Force Cambridge Research Labs weather radar site located
      on the far reaches of the US ARMY Labs Annex (Sudbury, Maynard and Stowe).

      The snow commenced somwhere in the wee hours and was not too
      heavy, but Wet. The radar site was on the top of a hill and I had real
      trouble getting up the hill, but managed. I manned our doplar radar
      during the day as the it got colder and the snow started to dry out.
      Worked the whole day and made it home as well. It snowed all night
      and next day I had now work,

      So what do you think I did? Well, a friend and I drove to Mt. Wachusett
      and skiied all day in the most awesome conditions. Don’t remember
      much more of that storm. IT was different.

      BTW, the previous strom, feb 11th I remember very very well.
      It was a Sunday and a co-worker, Roland Boucher ( yes for you oldies out there, the Channel 7 weatherman and the WKOX radio meteorologist) planned a day trip to ski at Killington. I parked my car at his house in Natick and
      we stopped in Wellesely to attend Mass on the way. It started snowing
      somewhere along rt 89 on the way up.

      We enjoyed an awesome day of skiing in the snow. I remember Mr. Bucher
      taking out a sling psychrometer at the top of Killington Peak and announced to all within ear shot. 11 Degrees.

      The trip home was brutal. Thankfully he was driving a 4-wheel drive jeep.
      Got to his place in Natick and although he offered me to stay at his place,
      I shoveled out and drove home. When I got home the drive way
      was plowed in. I had to grab a shovel and dig my way in at 3 or 4 in the morning. And that storm delivered 2 feet at my house in Millis despite
      the puny total for Logan.

      In Millis, we had two 2-footers 2 weeeks apart. 😀

      OH btw, if I recall correctly, that Winter the mean trough was well to the West all Winter, Until mid-Feb and it shifted Eastward and WHAM!

      There was one other event in March, but only dumped about 1/2 foot or so

      That was my go to Winter until 77-78.

      1. Thanks for sharing. Never heard the term “vest pocket” low. Curious as to what that looks like on a map. 🙂

        1. If I remember correctly, it was just a very small low
          pressure area that was rather innocuous.
          I “think” he called for something like 2-4 inches.
          How’s that for a BUST???

  8. Ed Werder Tweet. Clearly Felger was incorrect about the location of the cut.

    Tom Brady will be monitored in pregame warmups, but the Patriots seem to have have minimal concern about the cut on his passing hand that required stitches. The laceration is in palm of hand, near base of thumb. They don’t expect it to be a significant factor in QB’s performance.

      1. That’s awesome North. What a nice day. This will be my third AFC title game. Was in the end zone seats where cundiff put the kick wide left and was at the game when they beat JAX to go onto the superbowl against Green Bay.

        1. My third too. Each time has been special and the atmosphere unbelievable. All three times for me have been 40+ in the temp department too, which has been a bonus.

    1. That’s a lot of points by the Jags even with our shaky “bend-but-don’t-break” defense. You seem to have even more concerns than I. Can you share your inside thoughts on that TK? You don’t usually just throw out numbers.

  17. Predictions:
    NE 38
    Jacksonville 13.
    Close first half then Pats dominate second half

    MIN 23
    PHI 17
    MIN scores in the final minutes of the game and their defense makes a big stop at the end.

  19. My reasoning for those predictions is nothing more than everyone expects both games to be different, and I love it when things don’t go “by the book”. I love it, for example, when a team is giving no chance to win a game, and they do it anyway, especially when the experts say it’s a lock. 😉 Maybe I sound like a hypocrite because I predict weather that doesn’t nearly always do what I expect it to, but it’s just a case of weather being real and sports, though real, not something that has as wide ranging an impact, other than perhaps your mood or the amount of money left in your wallet. I’m just having fun with it, because I can. 😉

    1. Absolutely perfect. I also love it if there is a wrench thrown into the mix. I truly want Brady to play. He, more than anything has earned it, but if not….well then, it is still a game.

      1. Good that score is just random, just for the heck of it and not an “inside” scoop. A shootout, even at home would not be good. 🙂

        Of course, anything is certainly possible. 😉

  20. Anybody remeber the Dec 92 noreaster that brought 32” to worcester? If where would i find archived snowfall totals for that storm. It was the first really big storm that i witnessed.

    2. Oh yeah, remember that baby.
      I was so PISSED off I can’t even tell you.

      It was RAINING along the COAST as in BIG TIME RAIN, however, it
      was more a boundary layer issue due to it being an early season event.
      However, for work I was driving around among our various offices
      and I could see some wet snow flakes occasionally hitting the windshield.
      There was snow mixed in all afternoon and it did not change over until
      well into the evening.

      I “think” Logan ended up with 9 inches, perhaps close to a foot in JP, but
      we lost nearly 2 feet of accumulation due to rain.

      My Brother in Pascoag, RI (NW corner) received 30 inches as it snowed
      the whole time there.

      That was a good one for sure.

      1. What I remember is that Boston received several inches and Quincy received none…literally. The dividing line between snow/bare ground was the Neponset Bridge. I know that for a fact as I drove from Dorchester to Quincy and back for a dental appointment.

        1. Yup,

          We had 1 foot at my office in Canton on Rt. 128 drove to Braintree Mall at lunch and there was NOTHING!!

          And even if a few inches at Neponset, a foot in JP. 😀

      2. I remember that friday night it started to snow. Probably around 5ish flipping back and forth to rain. I remember watching bruce shweggler (sorry for the spelling) all excited for thes storm ( saying its the biggest storm since 78.) i remember it switched to snow fully around 7. I went into the bathroom to take a shower around 730 and when i came out i could not believe how much snow had fallen in that short amount of time. I would sayt he plows were out by nine ish. Sat morning i remember bieng waken up by my mother yelling “ holy shit” when she looked out the window to see how much snow was on the ground. It snowed most of the day. Never got a measurement but the local paper reported 30” bieng measured.

    4. I remember it well. We’d just bought our daughters new pony and my inlaws were driving from SC to here to meet him. They ended up havingto stop in CT

      As I recall the next winter was equally snowy…perhaps moreso.

    1. With the Patriots and Jags game, it is going to be extremely close, we will not see what happened in the divisional game. The patriots offense, i believe can handle the Jags offense, probably a bunch of field goals involved in this game. The big battle will be the patriots offense vs the Jags defense. Who ever wins this battle, will win the game. The game is going to be within 5 points.

      1. Oh and the refs won’t be calling any holding and pass interferance calls on the Jags defense like they have all year.

  22. Thank you, TK.

    Patriots 34, Jaguars 13.

    Vikings 27, Eagles 13

    Superbowl prediction:

    Vikings 24, Patriots 17

    By the way, all week I’ve been hearing on sports radio that Brady’s never missed a playoff game. That’s not true. Bledsoe filled in nicely for Brady in what I believe was the AFC championship game against the Steelers in 2002 when Brady was hurt.

        1. It will be played in their stadium regardless of what “color” uniforms they will be wearing, assuming that is what you are referring to. 😉

          For all practical purposes, it most certainly would be HOME FIELD advantage.

          1. Totally get what you are saying Philip. But NFL standards they are the visiting team that’s what I heard .

    2. You are correct . I’m a little ticked at 98.5 this week . Not because they cut my live on air conversation this morning in the middle of me talking , they do that to everybody I find it incredibly RUDE!!!

  23. I like the eagles by 6 or less.

    I saw on Twitter. The city of Philadelphia is greasing up there light and utility poles to in case of rioting.

      1. Speaking of any potential incidents, I am curious if Boston will have extra police at Fenway and TD Garden tonight.

    2. Same here. Philly should win. That’s what my money is on anyway. I bet pats and Philly. Hope to do better than break even.

  24. I believe that last year on January 21st we had record-breaking temperatures (60F or so), the year before on January 21st it was mild as well, and even January 21st, 2015 was mild if I am not mistaken (this was just prior to the snow onslaught).

    1. IIRC the 2015 snow onslaught began on January 24th. There will certainly be none this time and maybe not for the next two weeks or so, if I understood TK’s outlook correctly.

  26. Not that impressed with the Pats so far. Both sides of the ball. Less impressed with the defense.
    Long way to go

  27. Pats making it way too easy for the Jags so far. Not a good feeling on where this is going. Looks like a simple talent mismatch so far.

    1. Defense is sleepwalking…The offense is too tentative. This could be over by the half. Yeah I know…It ain’t over till it’s over but it’s looking pretty sorry right now.

  30. I told everybody here last week how nervous I was . Remember I mentioned Gronk??? Where is he oh there he is knocked down .

    1. MassBay, JPD and I also said it would be a tough game. MassBay as I recall made some excellent comments.

      As far as their QB….young, not proven, shows great potential and is sure living up to that today.

    2. I thought it would hard to score on the jags in the first half, but I didn’t count on the pats defense being so confused.

    1. Calm down man, it’ll be ok. They’ll figure it out. Only reason they took gronk in was to do the concussion protocol. If it was the first Q, they’re have done it on the side line.
      They within 4 points. Have you not watched the pats for the last 18 years? 😉

      98.5? lol. They talk crap for ratings

  37. Y’all can comment all you want on the game this afternoon. Just keep it civil please. Only a reminder. 🙂

    On a weather-related note, I have noticed the normally wet 12km NAM is on the dry side for the upcoming event.

  39. Jags were definitely the better team that half, but it’s a one score game. Will likely be competitive right to the wire.

  40. I thought it would be close first half. Second half my prediction was Patriots would dominate. Will see if Gronk gets back in the game.

    1. Trust me Gronk is not coming back . This new protocol will not allow him too. He’s out they don’t mess with this anymore.

  42. Same issue on both sides of the ball they’ve had all season. 3rd down. Offense can’t convert on 3rd down, defense can’t get off the field on 3rd down. Anytime the pats have had trouble in games all season, it’s been the 3rd down problem.

    1. Held them to just a FG but I still didn’t like what I saw overall on D. Need to come back here with a score.

  44. Pats will have to open up the offensive playbook. Couple good plays, but a dopey dump off behind the line on third down isn’t gonna cut it. Plays like that are why McDaniels will fail again as a head coach.

    1. Get the ball at mid field and go 3 and out. That’s poor play selection. That run Lewis for 3 yards, pass 2 and got to 3rd and 4 doesn’t cut it.

  49. First half was a talent issue. We look on par with them this half. But now it’s a play calling issue. Defense makes a great stop, we get the ball with great field position, then literally the worst possession of play calling I’ve ever seen. And the defense is just tired now.

  51. And that’s what happens when u have to rely on trick plays to get ur offense going. It’s amazing it’s come to this

  52. Wow was I wrong. Give the Jaguars credit. They’ve been the better team. Not Brady’s fault. He’s looked very good. Oh well, can’t win them all.

    1. Lose Gronk but still have Edelman, they’re fine. Lose Edelman and still have Gronk, still fine. Lose em both? Can’t recover no matter how good your QB is

      1. I dunno. Edelman hasn’t been there all season. You can’t blame not having him at this point. It’s 3rd down on both sides of the ball is what it cones down to.
        They only down by 10.
        I’ve seen this before.

    3. No one said the game is over. It’s OK to be critical and to provide commentary on what is currently happening…

      2. It was really more of a general question, not directed at anyone here. 🙂 I was watching FB at the time and I know a couple people at the game that left. My brother had tickets. He stayed. He always stays. 🙂

    1. I always have faith. Even if they lose this game they are not going to stop giving it effort. Yes they could have played better, but down 3 at this point after all that? I’ll take it. We’ll see what happens from here.

  56. I know I’m in the minority. I am proud of my team win or lose. They have given us nearly two decades of amazing football. I could never be upset or ashamed. I love this team.

  57. I thought I would interrupt this sports blog with a weather question. Does anyone have an idea when rain will start tomorrow?

    1. We’ll have a period of patchy very light rain/mix around between dawn & 10AM, maybe another around early afternoon, and then another more widespread one in the evening. It never comes in like a wall. That will be reserved for the warm sector rain on Tuesday which will be in the form of 1 or 2 solid bands.

    2. LOL…Actually you did! We were all (with a couple of exceptions) down on them early (well actually through 3 quarters) but a few of you were saying let’s see what happens.

    1. The Patriots do something that most teams really don’t. They play a full 60 minutes of football. Many teams do not.

    1. I really believe that any team that has 1 score lead against the Patriots needs to play aggressive football, but for whatever reason in important games, all of them seem to be on their heels. It’s almost like they can feel defeat so they accept defeat.

  69. I was thinking about McDaniels. I’ve said for years that there are obvious lessons to be learned from the pats and BB. Instead, other teams try to find fault with the Pats. If other managers took more time to learn, they might do better. But McDaniels knows first hand. He will be interesting to watch.

  71. What can I say … The Patriots are simply incredible. Just when you think that this might not be their year, they of course come back to win. Amendola was awesome. He’s such a gifted athlete and tough competitor.

  72. SAK posted this on Facebook and I share it here…

    From Elias Sports:

    This is Tom Brady’s 4th career playoff win as a starting QB after trailing by 10+ points in the 4th quarter.

    No other quarterback in NFL postseason history has more than 1.

    1. He is simply awesome….and BB. BBs personality leaves a lot to be desired but that can apply to many greats. The focus is there because other things just don’t matter

  75. I said it was going to be tough but that was more than I could handle. I was pacing the floors back & forth ( that’s true ) with my wife telling me to calm down . Wow !!! Felt bad for Jags QB seeing him crying as he played the game of his life & he showed up ready .

      1. These guys are competitors. It sounds nice but disappointment (and anger to some degree?) is what motivates them to do better.

  76. I was the same way, John: Pacing back and forth. Also felt similarly about Bortels and several other Jags players. They played their hearts out. As we know, even when a team plays well it’s almost never enough to beat the Patriots. The one person I don’t feel sorry for is Ramsey. Big mouth, and he did not show up tonight.

  77. I did not see 24 -7 Eagles at the half. Vikings defense which is very good not playing well in first half.

  78. In a sign of things to come, I’m afraid, the first tornado watch up in the central/southern Plains, with 1 current tornado warning in northeast Texas.

    1. La Nina pattern can be pretty prolific severe weather maker for the Plains. We’ve had a lot of quiet severe weather seasons of late. This season will be different.

  79. That was one crazy championship Sunday. Repeat Eagles vs Patriots superbowl. What are the odds.
    Totally different team, yet i think the game is going to be within 4 points. First half defense slugfeast, then shootout second half.

  80. TK – Which city gets a blizzard two weeks from now?

    Boston?
    Minneapolis?
    Dallas? 😉
    None of the above?

    If a snowstorm occurs outside during the SB is it still considered a “snow bowl”? 😀

  81. I am sorry but I am so freaking happy that the Jags did not win. This is why. When Gronk got the head injury the corner, was happy about it, he was smiling and jumping up and down after the penalty flag was thrown and saw that gronk was out of it. Jags are Scum

  82. Picked up a new hat from dicks sporting goods: https://i.imgur.com/D6uBEGx.jpg – they didn’t have the official AFC Champs hats (anyone know what store does? I hate ordering online and waiting)

    That said reading the comments it’s funny to see people kind of giving up or losing hope. We always win if I watch the game and never lose faith. People were teasing me all game in a chatroom I’m in saying the pats were done and they were going into the offseason. I said they should never count out TB12. Boom.

    Vikings were a super lucky team riding on too much luck. They were destined to get trounced at some point. Knew the eagles would be the ones to do it. Pats have this on lock. I can’t wait to go to dicks again the second the game concludes to celebrate with throngs of fans.

    Also gotta say yesterday’s January 78 blog post was wonderful. Good work tk.

    1. As nervous as I was, I was surprised at the comments here considering they were never trailing by no more than 11 at any point in the game and 10 in the 2nd half. I don’t understand this “defeatist” attitude either.

      1. Agreed. Figured last years come from behind from 28-3 would have set a bar for that I guess not. I had no doubt they would win.

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