Saturday Forecast

126 Comments

11:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
We’re all well aware of the major impacts of the storm that is not quite done with the region. As of the writing of this update, the 3rd of 3 high tide cycles expected to cause moderate to major coastal flooding is about to take place. The region remains in the envelope of moderate to strong, gusty winds, especially coastal and southeastern areas, and this will gradually loosen its grip on the region during this weekend, which will be blustery and chilly. A few rain and snow showers will occur today around the outer periphery of the very large storm circulation. An upper level disturbance will arrive and begin to merge with the larger storm offshore later Sunday, and this may bring some accumulating snow showers to portions of the region, though no major accumulation. We get a break between storm systems Monday and Tuesday, but as advertised, the next one arrives with a rain/snow/wind threat Wednesday as the stormy blocking pattern continues. Folks have been sharing reports, photos, NWS stats, etc, and I’m sure will continue to do that in the comments section, so I will not bother posting any of that here, just moving on to the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers, favoring eastern MA and RI. Highs 37-44. Wind N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast. Additional moderate to major coastal flooding around the midday high tide.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Minor to moderate coastal flooding around the late night high tide.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches possible. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: A storm of snow/rain/wind expected. Temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Blocking pattern continues… Storm in the area with snow/rain/wind potential March 8, then lingering wind and possible snow showers March 9. A break with fair weather March 10-11. Next storm threat arrives March 12 with a chance of rain/mix/snow but obviously far too early for any solid certainty.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Storm threat early in the period then a minor system may come through later in the period, however the overall large scale blocking pattern should remain in place at least into if not through this period.

126 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. I notice the Weds storm is listed as snow/rain/wind with the next as rain/mix/snow. I’m guessing. The wording was chosen carefully…

  3. Thanks, TK.
    Once again, sir, you were/are spot on with the forecast and your thoughts on this remarkable event!!! And that does for everyone else who posts here! I have learned so much by being part of this blog!
    Congratulations!
    This is the place to be during big weather and the only place I go for my forecasts!!

    I am thinking about all of you who may be affected by this storm. Hope you all are well and comfortable real soon.

    I know that power crews from NH and VT are in Middleborough trying to get the 30% of the town that is still without power back on-line.

    Take care and please be safe.

  4. * goes for everyone. No matter how many times I proofread, I still can’t catch the errors!

      2. Same for me except I have realized my mind sees what the person meant anyway. I read it as goes so had to go back and see what you were referring to

  6. Good morning after. That was quite a storm, even took down trees in my neighborhood.
    Fortunately, we did not lose power. I hope all have fared well, with nothing more
    than minor inconveniences. Hopefully no serious damage or injuries.

    I look forward to the next event. Yup, I’m a gluten for storms, especially in the Winter.

    Today’s Boston high tide with the current 2.6 feet surge will be somewhere in
    the neighborhood of 14 feet which will still cause some problems.

  7. 3.77 of rain yesterday in Taunton, giving us 14.67″ for the new year, most of which is lurking just underneath our home and in our sump pump pit. Water is cascading into the pit and the main pump is running every seven seconds. Fortunately, the pump, the back-up pump and generator all worked yesterday and last night.

  8. Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC have the next system as an inside runner
    with snow to rain for our area. We shall see.

    On the other hand, tomorrow nights little disturbance is displayed on the NAM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018030312/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_40.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018030312/namconus_z500_vort_neus_41.png

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_conus_045_700_rh_ht.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_conus_047_sim_radar_comp.gif

  11. Wind gusts were impressive for this storm including some gusts in the low 90s on parts of the Cape.

  12. I came home from work yesterday very relieved that there was no standing water in my basement. I was really concerned given the 2-4 +inch forecasts. Later I discovered that Logan actually underachieved at 1.17 inches which may have been the main factor. I’ll take it either way. 🙂

  13. Average March snowfall for Logan is either side of 8 inches.

    7.8, 7.9, 8.2?? whatever

    It will be interesting how close they get…3 opportunities?

    1. Around there somewhere. Medium range is conflicted but models aside my meteorological instinct tells me that the block breaks down as quickly as it developed and then comes back briefly several times (for a couple days at a time) during the remainder of the spring, with predominant progressive flow, trough West / ridge East pattern overall. Once in a while we may see the ridge retrograde to the Southwest and a northwesterly flow here.

    1. Ha! Passion?? Great comment, TK, and we should all be proud……but, sir, please take a bow of your own 🙂

  16. Euro looks much better for the 3/7-3/8 system. Waiting on my service to see snow/rain line and totals.

      1. Looks good to me keep like this and I will be happy Good snows West of I95. You still get some east of I95.

  17. I hope this one pans out as I just missed out on accumulating snow with a snow area in western CT that could not have nudged a little bit to the east towards me. When it did flip to snow dry slotted about hour and half later.

  19. Just came to derby street for coffee yes it’s almost 2:00 and I’m having my first cup I’m a multiple a day drinker . Being told power might be out for days . Absolutely no place is open down my way . I said in the Friday post I’ve never seen so many trees down I’m stressed to the max today .my son is completely miserable today because we can’t see hockey game tonight ugh . Once I get home I’ll loose reception again . It worked last night but I’m guessing not today due to the extensive damages over night . I might add the trees down are massive in size uprooted totally from the ground . Massive one two doors down from me .

  20. Hopefully your power comes back sooner that what you were told. It totally stinks being without power for multiple days.. I had it happen two times in an eight week span with Irene and the October Noreaster. We had damage in CT but nothing like what you and others had in eastern MA.

  21. Watch the Movie Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri last night.
    Pretty interesting movie well worth a look.

    I found myself looking at the back ground scenery and telling my wife that
    there was No way that was Missouri. I told her that I knew there was some elevated
    areas in Southern Mo (1200-1800 feet to be precise), but the hills/mountains in the
    back ground just looked to high and steep for it to be MO. I told my wife that
    I thought that the film location was in North Carolina. I looked at the credits
    and sure as shit it was NC, in the Ashville area.

    See what I get out of a movie instead of the story line. Drives my wife nuts!

  22. Bizarre out there. Just past Marshfield center all the way to Boston Bowl in Hanover, there are multiple intersections with no lights. The tree damage is noticeable and all the branches, downed fences, signs, you name it, it looks like a tropical system hit.

  23. Vicki, I saw and then heard a red-winged blackbird on February 26th. I think he had just arrived from Mexico. He was chirping Jimmy Buffett’s “Margaritaville,” clearly missing his winter abode.

    By the way, did Sutton get any snow from yesterday’s storm?

    1. It may have been around then I saw it, but since that we my dads birthday and he was always whistling, I suspect he was saying hi to you 🙂

      We had a coating when i went to sleep and nothing when I woke up. I just took a little drive. Tons of smaller branches but also some entire trees and huge limbs. The wind must have been at the strongest in early morning hours. Two chairs on the patio were blown tens of yards away and up onto the hill behind the house.

      This of course pales in comparison to the awful damage along the coast

      How is your area, Joshua?

  24. Just found out the husband of my boys’ preschool teacher was killed in Plympton when a tree fell on his truck. So incredibly sad for this young family.

    1. Terrible news. A sad reminder that there is an impact on lives, not just things…

    5. Horrible sue so sorry . As you know it’s just horrible all around our area . Sad news .

  25. Jp Dave. On weatherbell service I have the euro shows 12 inches (kuchera) for Boston in the midweek system. Maybe your source is better I am curious how you see 5.

    1. I don’t look much at the snowfall maps, but the QPF in the form of snow (liquid) is around 1 inch around the Boston area. With temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Low rations of 8 to 1. Ratio’s increase and the amount of QPF in the form of snow increases the further northwest you go. I deal location would be North of Worcester up to Lowell and Manchester NH. Based on the EURO QPF in the form of snow, I would say most of the areas along and west of I95. Out to Western Mass could see a heavy snowfall if you were basing it on the euro.

    2. Kane, the snow algorithm is proprietary software presumably created by the host of the site who is a professional met. I have seen these discrepancies before. I’ll post map later if I have a chance. mobile right now.

  26. As far as the midweek storm threat goes…

    *Using model runs only as rough guidance, not paying attention to #’s of any kind beyond a quick scan until about Monday.

    *Potential is for significant event, however not as powerful as the currently-departing storm.

    *Cold air more available, likely leading to snow being a bigger part of the equation.

    *Rain/snow locations indeterminate this far in advance.

  27. Tk I don’t want to sound stupid but Is there the possibility a microburst came through some towns down here I mean the size of these trees as well as multiple telephone poles is nuts .

    1. No. It would not be classified as a microburst as those gusts were not created by that mechanism. What happened with the most powerful gusts was a rolling of air and pieces of the low level jet essentially mixing their way to the surface. You also have the very tight pressure gradient to start with, and open ocean just to the east. Not a whole lot of friction there and no real topography to slow things down and break them up.

  28. GFS is showing a fair amount of snow for out here. Been fairly consistent too. We’ll see.

    1. All the pieces are essentially over land so sampling is decent. The models have no excuses this time. 😛 😛

        1. Most of them have shown a snow/rain combo and a moderate amount of wind.

          But it’s really too early to focus on any grand detail.

          1. Oh for sure. I’ve always wanted to know what the probability of “benchmark” hits are. It’s got to be in the single digits or teens percent when you stack up all of the storms that go off of our coast in a given season/year. We get so excited but the odds probably are pretty small.

  31. Well no major storm was stopping Jet Blue from flying out of Boston yesterday, took off at 2 pm to RDU and we made it in time to be my mom’s side. We lost her today at 4:20 and so grateful the storm didn’t stop us from making down.

    My passion for weather started at an early age all bc of mom’s love for it as well.
    Cancer is an awful disease but thankfully she went very quickly and I pray that my two boys can hopefully live long enough to see an end to such an awful sickness.

    Love to all my WHW family!

    1. With tear running down my cheeks, I send you hugs and love. Hadi, we are all here for you…always.

    2. So sorry to hear about your mom Hadi. I lost my father to cancer as well. It is a terrible disease. My thoughts and prayers for you and your family.

    5. Sorry for your loss, Hadi. It seems like Cancer is getting worst and worst. There is some very cool research involving tropical sponges and corals in possible cancer treatment, if only they can get the funding for the research it would be much faster. There is also some vaccine research as well. I bet your kids will see a cure happen unless to many people try to get involved and try and block each others research.

    6. So sorry Hadi. Your WHW family will be thinking of you and your family.

      I am glad you were able to safely get there in time to be with her. Cherish the memories. They live forever. May she rest in peace.

    10. So sorry for your loss, Hadi. My mother died of cancer a few yrs. ago too. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

      1. You and your family are in my prayers, Hadi. My deepest sympathy on the loss of your mom.

    13. Very sorry for your loss, Hadi. Glad you were able to make it down there. I really do believe today’s youth will see the day when cancer is no more.

    3. Hull is a Municipal Light Department, but the electrical supply comes from NGrid. Needless to say, the are major differences in how a municipal-owned electrical department responds vs an investor-owned department. What that message is from the Town is that they are able to distribute the power, but NGrid can’t supply the power.

    1. Most models agree a post is coming in at the 10am hour. Ezcept the Euro, it says the sunday post will be made at 4pm on tuesday.

  35. Take your time and enjoy Sunday morning, TK. Thank you for all you do.

    The taller tan house in this pic is one we rent. This is river and street side. The street is supposed to be to the left of the telephone poles. House does not look damaged in this side. Would love to see other/ocean side. I must say raising these homes is making a huge difference

    https://i.imgur.com/hnKvf93.jpg

      1. It is my understanding that this is now a regular occurrence at least once, but more often more, yearly.

  36. The column must be a bit cooler today as the ocean effect elements are falling as snow grains, graupel and/or ice pellets.

  37. I don’t like that the disturbance coming down tonight is going to increase the winds along the coast again tonight, not to mention potentially give 1-3 inches of wet snow to se mass.

    2. Or the mid week storm. Both the GFS and Euro have a potent 985mb low with the GfS track over the Cape and the Euro track near the benchmark. Both will get that easterly on shore wind cranking again. Both showing significant snow as well with the higher totals further inland on the GFS due to the closer track and rain/snow line getting west of 95

    3. We got our power back last night! I was planning in doing a shopping today since we lost everything in fridge/freezer, but now I just might hold off on a big shopping and just get essentials. Love the south shore! but thinking we may need to invest in a generator.

  40. At this rate the Euro’s forecast for my blog update being Tuesday may be right! 😉

    No, I will get to it, bu tit will be before noon. Promise! 😛

    3. Wait for the ensemble runs every time been further east and south compared to operational. Euro and Canadian more in agreement and the gfs ensembes are more in line with these

      1. Hopefully there’s more cold air available upstairs for at least the hills to get in on snow this time

  43. Reporting from brant rock it’s bad . Poles , streets , live wires down .major hit down this wavy. Hearing no power till Tuesday

  44. In terms of the mid-week storm, I think the models will have some trouble with determining the lower level temperatures. I think it will be cooler than they are predicting and the storm track will be some where over the outer cape to the benchmark. Looking at the ensemble members of the models they have all been further south and east than the operational runs. I am to be honest rather confident in this storm compared to the past ones. ( Does not mean I am confident, but I am more confident than some of the others we have had to predict this winter)

    Also some playful river otters visited the backyard. Have not seen them for a while as the water level has not been high enough for for them to come up in the area. Water table is doing very well. The red-wing black birds are also here in full force with their flocks in the area.

      1. I don’t know the forecast I’ve had no power since 5 Friday and now I’m hearing Wednesday. I’m in Marshfield so I have reception I have none at home . Do you know what time so I can prepare thanks

  48. Matt, I agree with your post above on the 12z GFS run. It’s too warm at the 925mb level. The 850mb temps look good and with a deepening low passing to our southeast and good dynamics, the rain/snow line should end up further southeast than the GFS is showing. We will not have the firehose off the Atlantic to overcome like we did with this last storm….different setup. I think 6″+ is in play for many outside the Cape and Islands.

  49. 12z GFS also has a monster of a coastal system for 3/12-13. Low down into the 970’s and another round of strong easterly winds.

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