Thursday Forecast

149 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Heat and humidity is back today as expected, but a stronger cold front is on the way. First this front brings the risk of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast, and then introduces cooler and drier air for Friday and the weekend. The front won’t be that far to the south, however, so some cloudiness may hang around at times, especially Friday when some showers may linger mainly south of the Mass Pike during the morning. By Monday, low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes and will also contain moisture from former TS Gordon, bringing unsettled weather. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-86 South Coast, 87-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible early mainly south of Boston and Worcester. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers south of the Mass Pike mainly in the morning. Less humid. Highs 72-80. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-63. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s interior, upper 50s coastal and urban areas. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
Most of this period should feature dry weather and a return to above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates. However we will have to keep an eye on Hurricane Florence mid to late period. Early odds favor the system staying offshore, but either way there will be coastal impact due to at least building surf.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
High pressure ridging will control the weather again with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures expected.

149 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Boston and Canton schools begin today.

    As for Boston school buses, they are expected to roll on schedule. It seems the drivers are currently working without a contract.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Minimal impacts on morning commute with Boston Schools opening today.
    Those poor kids locked up in Boston’s antiquated old schools today.

    I anxiously await the 12Z model suite to see what’s the latest with
    Florence and the machine.

  7. The GFS 6Z looks like flo would provide some high waves and some coastal erosion. It also shows a system coming up the coast as flo departs.

    1. Indeed and that follow-up system is Tropical. Likely CAT1 or strongish TS.
      We shall see how that one shakes out.

  8. TK, did you get any sleep last night? I see you posted at 3;20 AM
    and then again before 7:30 AM. Wow! I can’t operate like that. 😀

  12. Thanks TK
    SPC has all SNE in marginal risk for thunderstorms today. I would not be surprised to see a locally strong or severe storm somewhere in SNE later today. This is no big thunderstorm day. The bigger story is what is behind that front that most of us are going to be enjoying Fri through the weekend and that is nice temps and comfortable levels of humidity.

  13. This tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee to me pretty much explains where were at with Florence on this Thursday morning.
    Not much change overnight with #Florence. Becoming more and more clear it may miss the first “opportunity” to exit stage right out to sea east of Bermuda. This introduces possible impacts to Bermuda, then more uncertainties arise as it approaches the U.S. Still very complex!

  15. I understand that the EURO has not been initializing Florence correctly and the importance of that.

    It has, however, at its own comparative pressures, correctly projected the weakening of the system today, which makes me wonder if it has the overall upper level winds down.

    Florence looks, at least on satellite, to be significantly sheared today.

  16. Logan at 10am

    Temp : 86F
    Dp : 73F
    Heat index : 93F

    My classroom

    Temp : 90F
    Dp : 90F
    Heat index : 141F

    Grump advisory in effect 🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. Any early dismissals up in MA due to heat today. We have widespread early dismissals in CT. Where I live the schools have been let out early Tuesday Wednesday and today.

  21. I of course do not want a destructive storm, but having some storms that can suck up that heat out of the ocean, could be beneficial to the marine life.

  22. if the latest gfs solution is right. we will have a lot of flooding potentially I think more than the wind potential.

    1. With Charleston at sea level in some areas that is never a good scenario.

      Oddly, the home that were taken by Hugo in 89 and that the city said would NOT be rebuilt have not only been rebuilt, but there are some in front of where they stood (ocean side)

      1. Well, clearly I do not either because I looked at the map and thought SC….see how well the power of suggestion works with me 😉

  26. I do believe that Logan has broken the High Temperature record for the date.
    I saw a 95 and the record was 93. Of course one could debate whether or not that
    95 was real. A seagull may have farted on the sensor.

  28. Euro is beginning to crank. Have the initialized panel.

    Initialized at 1002 MB.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2018090612/icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_60.png

    NHC had Florence at 975 mb at 11AM AST, which means it would have been
    stronger at 8AM. So the Euro did NOT initialize properly yet again.

    IF I remember correctly, it hardly ever does. I think we had a discussion here
    about that and I don’t know if it was JMA or SAK who enlightened us.

    Does anyone remember?

    2. I apologize but do not understand what it means to initialize. And if it is a really long explanation, please do not spend your time as your links are far more important.

      1. At 8am ….. the EURO thought Florence’s pressure would be …..

        and then comparing that pressure to the actual pressure of Florence of that time.

        Its initialized because its the 0 hr or beginning time of the model run, 12z today, which is 8am this morning.

      2. How it starts off…as in minute 1 of the model. Theoretically it should mimic existing conditions as much as possible. If the model shows a tropical storm at area X, and the actual condition is bright sunny sky, then it doesn’t match existing, near-real time conditions. At least that is my layman’s interpretation of the “initialize incorrectly”. I could be way off though!

  29. One thing to notice with the time frames today ….

    around 168 to 180 hrs ….

    we are leaving the long range and transitioning into the medium range, entering the day 7 period.

    Sometimes, a sign that something may not happen is it shows up in the long range, but it stays in the long range, never really moving forward in time.

  31. With Florence, the 12z gfs would devestate bermuda, New Jersey/Long island areas and send extremely heavy rain to our area especially the SE.

  36. It’s funny, many of us have been unhappy with all the 500mb east coast ridges …

    And yet, while another may steer Florence into the mid Atlantic somewhere, the northern half of another 500 mb ridge perhaps won’t give it the needed momentum northward to get to our latitude.

  37. As I said yesterday Florence is liking a running back with the football being pushed back by a strong defensive front.

  38. Hope y’all are enjoying the models today. I think I am getting this one figured out. 🙂 Hints: Katia and FV3-GFS.

    Hey, 4 years ago today we’d had the hottest temperatures of the summer at Boston and were tracking heat-busting thunderstorms. 🙂

  43. So sad to hear about Burt Reynolds. He was a big part of my youth and that of many others I had such a huge crush on him

      1. Haha. This cell was born from a teeny tiny cell ahead of the line and over Southbridge. It took on a life of its own

  46. Getting Dark here. Maybe something will happen???

    IF it does, it will down pour as I head out to my car. 😀

  47. The first thing that went was the humidity, now the temperature went from 96 degrees to 74 within an hour. No rain, just a bunch of wind and some thunder in the distance.

  48. Before the rain start I noticed the same thing where it felt the humidity dropped with the gust front.

  52. Very dark w/lots of thunder in Sudbury. Interesting sky. Just started to pour. Still warm out; 85 degrees. Still feels humid. We have also had some gusts of wind.

  53. Boston under a severe thunderstorm warning. I’ll bet my house that
    no one in the city sees severe thunderstorm criteria. I think these warnings
    are thrown out there willy nilly. They should be reserved for a genuine severe
    thunderstorm:

    According to the National Weather Service, a severe thunderstorm must include winds of 58 MPH or greater, hail one inch in diameter or larger, or a tornado.

    That gonna happen in Boston? NOT LIKELY.

  56. Now a marine warning just East of Boston. Now, I don’t have a problem with that.
    Someone on a small boat could easily get swamped by sub-severe winds of
    30-40 mph.

  58. The temp. is 81 now and wind out of northeast. Opened windows even ‘though it’s still raining. Definite change of air outside. We saw some cloud to cloud lightning. Still lots of thunder – seems to be off to south and east.

  61. Quite obviously once that boundary passed me it was going to allow the stuff to the NW & W to weaken and lose its legs as it got closer to me. That’s the case. I’m about to rain here, and I’ve had rumbles and observed one flash with a fairly deep rumble about 20-25 seconds later, but I’m in the typical kind-of-missing-it zone while the focus shifts to the south where the heat and lift are better!

  62. Down to 80 at my house with 0.02 inch of rain so far. Big woof!
    Wow! I may still have to water the lawn tonight!()@)(#*(!@*#*!@()#*)(!@*#()*!@()

    1. Moved very slowly through here. We have had 90 minutes of T and L. Some not as strong as in the middle but that was easily 30-40min. It seemed to grow over us which prompted the Warned area just kissing our NE

      1. It actually was moving quickly, but the line’s orientation allowed you to be “in it” longer than many other areas. Or in other words, you won the storm lottery today. 😉

  67. Extremely close bolt of lightning just hit where I am in Sterling and knocked several pictures off the wall including a mirror. Glass all over the place. Never experienced anything like that in my life.

  71. About 20 minutes of fairly steady thunder and lightning (compared to anything recently anyway) Some very vivid bolts overhead and loud claps of thunder. Light Rain and no wind.

  72. I just sat through one of the biggest bowling tournaments in years. Lots of matches going on at once among the angels. After a couple of big boomers, we had a steady rolling of dozens of balls going on for 3o minutes. Finished about 25 minutes ago. The fought over the lights at the beginning of the whole thing.

  73. Scott, take care.

    I’m about to pick up my daughter at the airport. While planes are safe, I’m not thrilled to land or take off in a thunderstorm.

    1. Thanks and good luck on the pick up. All good here. Funny story actually the glass on the floor was a mirror that my wife has talked about replacing for some time now. I guess she’ll get that new mirror now 🙂

  74. Good ole-fashioned storm in progress here in Middleborough/Taunton!
    Lots of lightning and rolling thunder!

  75. Holy Crap!! We just a lighting and Thunder righ on top of us. It was instantaneous..I thought the house got hit…just checked and we are ok.

  77. Were all rooting for that 18z solution to happen. Wave action would be the result of a track like that.

    1. Good read. Thank you. This is important. Now and for going into winter

      “Most importantly, Florence is a good reminder that you should be prepared for any kind of weather emergency particularly if you live along the shoreline and are in or near an evacuation zone.”

      I think that applies to all locations, however, and not just the coastline

  79. Florence has really imploded today. Will be downgraded to a tropical storm at the next advisory after once being a Category 4 hurricane. It is forecast to restrengthen, but just as its rapid intensification was not well forecast, neither was this equally rapid collapse. This is why many models originally kept the storm weaker for longer, but they also didn’t show the prior rapid strengthening. Tropical cyclone intensity is amazingly fickle. We have very little skill at forecasting it past a day or two and are not improving at all. It’s one of the great unconquered fields of meteorology.

  82. Enjoy the next 4 to 5 days.

    Signs point to warmth, maybe 80s and humidity to return.

    I’d guess some days the middle of next week will have afternoon heat indices get to 90F or a little above.

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