Friday Forecast

97 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
The cold front through dropped through the region late yesterday, triggered showers and thunderstorms, is not that far south of the region today and will hang up for a time as a disturbance moves along it. This will hold clouds and a few showers in the region today before high pressure in eastern Canada provides a stronger push and brings a nice fall preview weekend. Low pressure that was once TS Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico will approach New England via the Midwest / Great Lakes bringing wet weather Monday as it pushes humid air back toward the region, which gets in here and sets up an additional risk of showers Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a few showers south of the Mass Pike mainly in the morning. Less humid. Highs 72-80. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-63. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53 most interior areas, 54-60 coastal and urban areas. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
Subtropical high pressure dominates the weather pattern for a good portion of this period with warm and humid weather and a risk of a few showers/storms. We’ll also have to keep an eye on Hurricane Florence forecast to be somewhere off the East Coast around mid period. To me, odds still favor a recurve out to sea but I cannot rule out an East Coast impact at this point. The system will definitely create rough surf and large swells as even systems well offshore often do.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
A couple shots of cooler air are possible this period but the overall weather forecast is low confidence due to the uncertainty preceding it. Does look like a mostly dry time.

97 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. Looking forward to a couple days of heat relief. I don’t mind the summer heat but it’s been a little much for me this late in the season.

    The overnight model trends, which now have become more meaningful multi-cycle trends, with regard to Florence are concerning. The odds of a direct impact along the US East Coast are rising. Still much too early to say where or what the impacts would be, and a miss certainly remains possible. But it would be prudent for all interests along the East Coast to monitor the progress of Florence. And as the NHC notes in their discussion, given we are at the peak of hurricane season and that there are additional storms lining up behind Florence, now is a good time for all coastal residents to review your hurricane plan.

    1. Thank you, WxWatcher. Very wise indeed. I started going through my standard supplies yesterday. I am also making ice packets for the freezer. I need a new cooler and glowsticks but otherwise everything was replaced after the power loss last winter.

      I am discouraged that Flo may hit somewhere along the east coast – even if it is only potential at this time. I’m hoping whatever stages she goes through keep her on the lower end of the scale.

  5. Thank you, TK. It was a great, every day thunderstorm last night. Unfortunately, it held very little rain in this area.

  7. Good morning again.

    re: Florence and her wind/rain machine

    I think an East coast landfall is increasingly likely and at the same time
    a direct hit to SNE is fast becoming less and less likely.

    Although certainly possible, at this time I do not think it will recurve out to sea.

    In reading the latest NHC discussion, FLO is currently riding underneath a North Atlantic ridge and should continue to do so, until it starts feeling the influence of an
    East coast trough at which time Flo will turn more NW.

    I believe that a strike will occur somewhere between South Carolina and the Del Marva. We shall see.

    (It may also approach the coast, only to brush by on its recurvature out to sea.)

    I find it absolutely fascinating to watch the evolution of this system and what better place to watch than right here at good ole WHW.

  8. re: Last evenings “storms”

    Although they varied from town to town, to me the most significant part
    of any of those storms was the lightning. I did not experience any wind at all and
    NO hail, therefore NO WHERE near severe in the City even though under a severe
    warning.

    I understand there was some hail reported out by Northbridge? Northboro? Not sure
    of the size. I did not see any wind damage reports.

    So my question of the day is Can one categorize a thunder storm as severe
    based on the amount of cloud to ground lightning strikes??? Would make sense,
    but I have not heard of that.

    1. Good questions. Odd that the warned area was when the storm “strengthened” as it passed over this area. I never really had the sense it strengthened in power as much as size if that makes any sense at all. I believe we had a VERY brief blast of hail (small) that arrived with the highest wind which was 13 mph.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Daughter arrived last night. Her first comment as we stepped outside: “Wow, now this is humid.” And by then the temp had dropped by 10 degrees and the humidity was less. It’s remarkable how much more humid Boston is than almost any other city in Europe, even when it’s warm or hot there. I recall noticing that difference, too. I’m sure the European settlers and immigrants noticed it upon arrival. It’s a distinctly tropical feel that you can’t really describe to another person very well. And when you tell a visitor from Europe that in 3 months time it could very well be -15 celsius, the person will not believe you. Part of that is Euro skepticism, and part of it is actually understandable disbelief. How could a place that is so tropical also feel like the tundra.

  10. I find it interesting that following a cold frontal passage, it takes hours (if not a full day) to feel its effects but as soon as a warm front passes, the heat and humidity smacks you right in the face.

    So why are warm fronts so much stronger than cold fronts?

    1. I’m not sure this is always the case ….

      This year though, it is the pattern.

      If the jet stream sank south of New England behind the cold front, the push of cool, dry air would arrive more emphatically and more quickly.

      This year, the jet stream has been WSW post cold front and so, the jet stream hasn’t allowed for a full push of cool, dry air.

      Instead, its been the heavier weight of the “cooler” air that has allowed a bit of it to ooze southward and thus, it hasn’t made as big an impact.

      The jet stream will, for a short time, push south of us or at least overhead and that should allow for a big push of cool, dry air tonight thru Sunday. Also, a very strong high with lots of heavier cool air will pass to our north this weekend and that should help keep Sunday in the 60s perhaps !

  11. Unfortunately, in beginning to slowly recover from yesterday’s maximum southwesterly shear, I would suggest that Florence’s center has either directly moved a bit south of due west the last few hours or reformed to the WSW of its original location.

    In any case, this southward component to the movement, mile by mile, takes it a bit further away from the trof well to the north.

    1. You can kiss the trough to the North Good-Bye. Flo will be headed towards
      the US East Coast. Exactly where and how strong Flo will be are the big questions.

  13. the entire east coast from Northern Florida to the Delmarva needs to watch this, So do we, but I feel the chance of us seeing a powerful storm up here is diminishing. Has anyone seen what the Canadian does. It moves up to North Carolina hits the cape, then moves south along the coast.

      1. The thing is that it is a very small part of the profession and it is up to us to keep at them. I posted on the comment but I also called. I call every time

        And it is the responsibility of the listener to be smart enough to double check.

  21. Something isn’t adding up with the majority of these model forecasts regarding the track of Flo. I can’t get Katia 2011 out of my mind. I know Katia originated further south but there is something about the overall set-up. I don’t know. Gonna investigate a bit more.

    1. Well if you are correct, it will be one heck of a feather in your cap.

      What about the Ridge in the Atlantic that keeps showing up
      forcing Flo more to the South? I am wondering if you think
      the placement and strength of that ridge is incorrect.

      Inquiring minds need to know.

      Thanks

      1. Weather Channel this morning was commenting that this looked more like the setup of the 1933 hurricane that went up the Chesapeake and into DC.

        1. Yes, possibly. But that fact does not by itself give more credibility to a model (ECMWF) that can’t freaking initialize properly. 😉 Yet the media and public seem fixated on this model’s tropical cyclone solutions ever since Sandy.

  23. Have a headache from banging my head against a table. Heard one TV personality state that Florence would be “366 miles southeast of Wilmington NC next Wednesday” without explaining the inherent uncertainty. Why? WHY give that specific a number on a day 5 forecast? And then go on to time a landfall in NC by mid to late afternoon Thursday? THIS is why people think we can do it.

    I am not backing down from the critical comments when I see this crap. I’m going to hit and I’m going to hit hard. I’m fighting for the standards this profession once had in its communication and need to have again!

      1. I’ve attempted to communicate with this one before. Not worth it. He just tells me what’s what people want to hear.

        I really think I want to put together something a little more organized WITH the help of my colleagues and go after this a little harder but more efficiently. Because the stations are just going to keep doing the same crap they are doing. As long as ratings and $ are the root and overriding the actual message, we’ll get nowhere easily.

          1. For the most part management has some say in that. He also has some. We’ve talked. It’s his style. I don’t agree with it, but I have no say in what he does other than voicing my opinion, which as you know is a strong one. 🙂

        2. Just let me know if you need a person to put together background docs or to search for contact info. I’d be happy to help….always.

      1. solar cover was destroyed unfortunately by the construction company shit heads that did our roof last year. They stole from us, they destroyed property, the list goes on.

    2. I was just at the Woburn / North Andover football game. Beautiful night. 🙂 Woburn got hammered, but that’s ok. North Andover is a good team and we’re 1 year away from a good group coming up the rungs of the ladder. 🙂

    1. Despite this, I cannot shake the gut feeling of a very sharp recurve either over or just east of NC.

      I would not be surprised if at least one global model starts to show this by the 06z if not the 00z run (as in the runs coming out about now).

  29. Little itty bitty mid level circulation that is in the vicinity of and southwest of Bermuda may have a little bit of an impact on Florence not seen by models quite yet.

  30. Fall preview weekend!
    Frost Advisory for parts of Upstate NY, VT’s Northeast Kingdom, far northern NH, and northern Maine, for early Sunday morning.

  31. Tk you are a freakin genius!!!
    For those who are wondering why, look at
    6z Gfs and review his comments above.

  32. 6z GFS comes very and I mean very close to the Outer Banks of NC then does a loop and gets moved out to seas. 0z EURO slams Florence into South Carolina.

  33. Regarding my comment above.

    Please check this 6Z GFS loop

    https://imgur.com/a/N3MFUfR

    Here is what TK said in response to an Eric Fisher tweet:

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    September 7, 2018 at 11:40 PM
    Despite this, I cannot shake the gut feeling of a very sharp recurve either over or just east of NC.

    I would not be surprised if at least one global model starts to show this by the 06z if not the 00z run (as in the runs coming out about now).

    Now, 1 model run does not make reality, however, does it ever drive home a point.
    Nice job TK. Wow! I am impressed.

      1. That would be impressive. Also that other comment from TK on that little feature near Bermuda. Could that suck some of the energy from Florence?

        1. Not so much suck energy as slightly alter the path, putting it north of the NH black-line track into more of the northern part of the “cone”.

  34. If all that happens is wave action considering Florence is forecast to be a cat 4 approaching the Carolinas that would be great.

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