Saturday Forecast

109 Comments

8:52AM

COMMENTARY
Today I will spare you a rant you’ve seen from me about media and I will let them either look like geniuses or fools on their own. No, I am not above any of these people. I don’t want that impression to be what comes out. I realize media today all plays the same game. Some of the people that appear on TV kind of hide this by masking it with their down-to-earth style, but they still have to give management what they want. Ratings. You’ve heard it all from me. I’ll just say this: I wish somebody would take a step back and reassess how this is being done, and what messages are actually getting to the audience. That will take some bravery in today’s media world.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
A cool weekend is here, but not a bright one. Some may be disappointed that it won’t be that bright sunny type of fall feel, but we will have a lot of high cloudiness streaming over the region in the jet stream winds. This moisture in upper levels is actually connected to what was once Tropical Storm Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico, but the remnant rains from this system are going to hold off until Monday, so your weekend is a dry one, just not very sunny. Gone is the heat and humidity and that will stay away for a few days, although as the rain arrives Monday, you’ll start to feel that humidity returning, and it will be back by Tuesday and Wednesday, though not to the oppressive levels of previously, and this time without the extreme heat, just warm September weather. Enjoy the cool, dry interlude in the mean time if that is what you dig. Onto the forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy – some dim sunshine. Highs 67-74. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-56. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy – some filtered sunshine. Highs 64-71. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind light NE to E.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east morning. Rainy afternoon. More humid. Highs 62-69. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
High pressure will control our weather which will be fair and warmer than average September 13-15. During this time, we’ll be watching Hurricane Florence to the south. There is a range of possibilities with that hurricane that include a landfall somewhere on the US Southeast Coast to a sharp curve north then northeast near or just off the coast of North Carolina. We won’t know for a few days yet which is most likely, or if its something else entirely. But if a Southeast Coast landfall occurs there could be remnant rain from the system arriving in this area either September 16 or 17, depending on movement of the weakening system once over land. If a sharp recurve occurred there may never be any impact, weatherwise. In either case, we will see increased surf and ocean swells along the coast, especially south-facing shores, during next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
With the inability to have a high confidence forecast at the end of the 6-10 day period that pretty much puts the 11-15 into a lower confidence mode, but it does look like a mainly dry time with above normal temperatures to start and possibly a quick cool-down later. There may be other tropical activity to watch as well.

109 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. I don’t laugh out loud while viewing model run loops too often, but the 06z FV3-GFS made me do it.

          1. Models “create” scenarios that are pretty much meteorologically impossible. We’re seeing several in this series of runs on different models. SAK and I have been sharing many laughs while discussing the situation. And then I fight with myself between laughing and crying over how seriously some people take those model runs, then apply them to the storm, saying the storm can’t decide where to go. Completely wrong. All we are seeing is inadequacies in our model programming.

        2. Because it pretty much cannot take that track at that intensity. There was another model run (forgot which) that went a step further and brought the storm onto NC as a hurricane twice, and down to Jacksonville FL as a hurricane once, all within a couple days of each other.

          Not happening.

  5. TK …. I just looked at the 500 mb flow on the 6z GFS.

    I take it that the weakening of the +590 dm high just east of Florence approaching landfall in essence ceases its momentum just off the NC coast.

    Here’s my question.

    Is there reason for concern that if this scenario plays out, that the main jet stream is still well to our north and west and that there wouldn’t be a kicker for a few days, leaving a potential strong hurricane sitting and spinning not too far or southern New England ??

    1. Even the “ridiculous” model runs like the FV3 show that there is at least a little concern because of weaker steering, so a storm that is allowed to meander, can meander into a more dangerous position for any given location. Something to watch, but I think it would meander long enough for enough southwest mid-upper winds to come along and pick it up.

  6. Thanks TK. Excellent discussion as usual!

    I’ll likely go a little radio silent on Florence today, simply because there isn’t much more to add. It’s still too early to know what the impacts are going to be. My only advice is to beware of anyone who’s telling you they’re confident in the outcome, because they’re kidding you and themselves. There are things going on with respect to Florence and the upper level pattern over the eastern US and western Atlantic that are basically outside the realm of recorded climatology. It’s a low predictability pattern. And I echo again what the NHC is saying, that all interests along the US East Coast, including in New England, should monitor the progress of the storm and review their hurricane plans. And finally, watch the short term trends, because they can easily propagate into long term trends.

  7. Thank you, TK

    You know how I feel about media. If a person does not use his or her due diligence then it is the fault of the person. If we do not like what a media source is doing we either direct concerns to the source or chose another one. That said, and because I feel it is important to address an issue to the source, My offer to help document or research contact info is always there

    All of that said, based on earlier discussion, I’m now taking the stance that Flo will not impact us and have food shopped and added to the only area of my new fridge that actually has anything in it….the freezer.

  8. I think the 12z ‘pasta’ in the hurricane models has developed a split, with a southwest landfalling track and a track being talked about for a while now by TK.

    2. Going back in my messaging, I noticed that SAK actually came up with this “one or the other” idea a day before I did.

    3. I have a couple of favorite female artists on my playlist today, both of them celebrating birthdays: Aimee Mann (of ’til Tuesday), and Alecia Moore (a.k.a. P!NK). 🙂

      Here’s a tune from a project that Moore did with Dallas Green, quite different sounding than her in-your-face power pop. The duo is known as “You+Me” and the song is “Capsized”. Quite good. Give it a listen.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjYqdmtRSlI

      1. yes, they are both awesome. And pink is more of a rocker than a pop artist imho.

        Aimee Mann is still cranking out great tunes.

        1. Pink can rock! Just most of her “hits” have been the poppy tunes but there is definitely some great rock in those too. I guess that accounts for some of the “in-your-face” that I mentioned above. 🙂

          I saw her on April 9. Awesome show!

    1. Wind shear did a number on her the last 24 hours or so. But the Atlantic being a little askew in temp still is going to allow strengthening since the warm water is now piled up off the East Coast.

        1. My son in law described the ocean in the Charleston SC area as pee water….remember, not to shoot the messenger 🙂 Get at or near 80 and I refer to it as dirty bath water.

    2. First center pass within Florence confirmed the estimated pressures and winds the nhc had on Florence prior to the recon plane arriving. Well done by the folks at the NHC.

    2. FWIW and that is less than a grain of salt, I ordered the few things I need in the event we lose power so I am all set. Therefore, the die has been cast 😉

    1. Towards just east of the outer banks ?? Or even further east ??

      So, the trend today must be to weaken the Atlantic ridge just enough to not give it that final westward push.

  15. According to Dave Epstein, once Florence moves away she will allow for a more persistent, longer lasting cool airmass to arrive.

    It would be welcome news for me and others here, but I may have to actually “feel” it to believe it. Much like a good snow event several days away.

    Your thoughts TK?

    1. I don’t agree that it will be persistent, but depending on where Flo is when she moves beyond this lat/long, there may be a shot of cool air. We are still going to be ridge-dominated in the East. That’ll be a warm pattern most of the time.

  16. If Florence doesn’t quite make it to the NC coast and stays just offshore, does that make SNE more vulnerable of a direct hit with a curve to the north?

    1. That’s what I’m worried about because …..

      If the models are adjusting the upper flow 4 to 5 days out, then that likely means they don’t have the jet stream correct at Day 6 or 7.

      The main jet will be north and west of us and if a trof were to ever start punching towards the Great Lakes that the models aren’t seeing now with a hurricane meandering south of us …….

    2. History is on our side. Almost never do meandering hurricanes off the SE Coast make it to New England as hurricanes. No matter the weather pattern.

      1. Ahhh I see you specified hurricanes and I like that since I am truly hoping we do not get this. Can I assume you are not precluding a TS? Was it Felix who did that? IIRC one in the past couple of decades did

        1. Tropical storms have been known to be a little more erratic, as well as depressions. Much more influenced by the environment around them.

      1. It would be significant but it would also be occurring in an area that has taken steps to combat it.

  19. Needless to say in 72 to 96 hrs, I hope the weather service and the NHC will be deploying extra balloon releases and the recon plane that flies around 40,000 ft respectively to get a lot more data on the jet stream at mid latitudes.

    1. I was just about to post the “INITIALIZATION GAME”

      12Z Initialized pressures for Florence:

      Euro 994mb
      GFS 997 mb
      CMC 1003 mb
      ICON 1004 mb
      NAVGEM 1006 mb
      JMA 1010 mb

      NAM 32KM 989mb

  22. 12Z Euro has Flo slowing down a bit, coming in Farther South
    and 20 mb more intense than last night’s run.

        1. Watching this loop, there is a clear move to the NW
          and almost to the North. If this feature moves just a bit
          more to the East, then we could have something similar
          to the GFS.

          It ain’t ova just yet.

      2. Even on this run, the ridge is slowly weakening at the time of projected landfall.

        Which I think would imply little movement when the hr 168 panel comes out.

    1. JJ. I don’t know about SC but NC declared a state of emergency yesterday. I’d be surprised if SC didn’t but we shall see

  25. Mid-upper 30 dewpoints making their way into northern New England.

    Both Burlington VT and Bangor ME have dps in the 30s.

  27. Can’t rule out that ECMWF track for sure, but I still feel it may be too far west and south.

    1. Those would represent LOW CAT 4 to High CAT 3

      Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

      Category

      Wind Strength – Pressure Effects
      1

      65 to 83 knots
      74 to 95 mph
      119 to 153 kph
      > 980 mb
      Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.

      2

      84 to 95 knots
      96 to 110 mph
      154 to 177 kph
      980 – 965 mb

      Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Marilyn of 1995 was a Category Two Hurricane when it passed through the Virgin Islands.

      3

      96 to 113 knots
      111 to 130 mph
      178 to 209 kph
      964 – 945 mb
      Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.

      4

      114 to 134 knots
      131 to 155 mph
      210 to 249 kph
      944- 920 mb

      Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

      5

      135+ knots
      155+ mph
      249+ kph
      < 920 mb

      Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. There were no Category Five hurricanes in 1995, 1996, or 1997. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone of record.

  31. I think Bernie way to far north with that. I would go Myrtle Beach to Norfolk, VA if there is a landfall.

  32. Recent tweet from Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher
    ‏
    Verified account

    @ericfisher
    Follow Follow @ericfisher
    More
    The potential stall/loop of #Florence just inland or near the coast is definitely concerning. Anything that prolongs impacts is bad. Exact placement still somewhat uncertain but trapped under the ridge = slow mover.

  34. Florence up to 70mph winds with latest advisory still forecasted to be a major hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas.

      1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

        INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
        12H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
        24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
        36H 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
        48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
        72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
        96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 125 KT 145 MPH

  35. FYI, the pending 18z GFS received a big load of dropsonde data from an earlier reconnaissance mission into Florence. It won’t necessarily cause a big change, but if there is a noticeable shift that may be the reason.

  37. This is where tk probably says through out the 18z gfs…. destrous north carolina and Virginia then restreangthens as hit heads up and hits long island

    1. They are extremely vulnerable.

      They can get surge from both the Atlantic and Pamlico Sound.

      Fresh water flooding from heavy rains starts with such comparatively little amounts of rain.

      1. Not much you can do to prepare but the states down there are well versed. For the most part, the residents are also. I know my in laws and their friends evacuated several days before it was even voluntary let alone mandatory

  41. Of course inland areas there could be flooding if Florence does make a landfall in Carolinas Virginia.

  42. Perhaps it was the data from the recon plane(s) ……

    I see some of the early 00z ‘pasta’ trending back west again, towards a landfall in eastern North Carolina and away from the idea of a close approach but remaining offshore.

    Every occurring Atlantic ridge, which will play such a critical role affecting the hurricane’s track, has ended up being equal to or stronger than model projections.

  43. The Red Sox had better figure out a way to beat the Astros. Might have known that this season was way too good to be true.

  45. In the 12 hrs since the 12z, it appears to me that the models around 72 to 84 hrs project a western Atlantic ridge that extends slightly further westward into the mid-Atlantic and for a bit longer. That, for now, seems to have pushed those models showing slightly offshore the Carolina coast to trend west a bit.

  46. New post!

    Did not make a lot of changes on this one because there really isn’t anything different to add from what was on yesterday’s blog, and the forecast is essentially the same. Added a shower threat for the South Coast mid next week, not because of Florence, but because of a boundary nearby and possible sea breeze enhancement and some humidity and warmth.

Comments are closed.