Sunday Forecast

112 Comments

8:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
Our cooler weekend continues and again a day of very limited sun as that expansive high cloud veil connected to former TS Gordon fans across the region, then thickens up and lowers as the rainfall from the system gets here Monday, making for a wet start to the new week. This leads more humidity into the region which we will feel Tuesday through Thursday. It won’t be as oppressively humid or nearly as hot as recent days, however. The shower and thunderstorm threat will be greatest Tuesday with a boundary nearby and this will settle across the South Coast at midweek keeping a slight risk of a few showers there but otherwise the weather will be mainly rain-free by midweek. We’ll continue to monitor Hurricane Florence, which will be approaching the US Southeast Coast by midweek as well. There is no threat of an impact up here during this period, except for some increased ocean swells early to mid next week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy – some filtered sunshine. Highs 64-71. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind light NE to E.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east morning. Rainy afternoon. More humid. Highs 62-69. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering to showers. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 76-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers near the South Coast. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
High pressure will control our weather which will be fair and warmer than average September 14-16. During this time, we’ll be watching Hurricane Florence to the south. There is a range of possibilities with that hurricane that include a landfall somewhere on the US Southeast Coast to a sharp curve north then northeast near or just off the coast of North Carolina. Similar to what you read here yesterday, details won’t be known for a couple or a few days, possibly even right up until the time the storm arrives down there. If there were to be impacts from remnant rain it would most likely take place late in this forecast period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
Still lower than average confidence on this time period, but leaning toward a dry and warm start then a cooler trend to follow.

112 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

      1. I wish them well. They are a hardy group in the south and know the drill well…..even, as I said yesterday, being prepared as far inland as Charlotte for Hugo. But that doesn’t change the need for real concern. I’m keeping your family as well as my daughters friends grandparents and all along the NC shore in my prayers.

      2. My brother-in-law and his family live in Wilmington, NC.

        When you check the obs down there, the SST at Johnny Mercer Pier is currently 88F.

          1. I’be been talking with him. They are ready to go.

            As we get a lot closer, we’ll have to see what direction is best to go. Depends on how far inland and in which direction the projected path will be.

            1. Hoping for the very best outcome, Tom. The fine line as they know better than most is not getting caught in the evacuation. SC and NC seem to,have always shown good judgement in their evacs, especially closing all inbound lanes and making them outbound.

    2. On the 12z tracks, notice now there isn’t one projected path, amongst these, that remain offshore.

      Just observing that as a change as compared to yesterday. They could all end up wrong.

  5. Thank you TK

    If I’m not mistaken, Florence MAY make landfall in four days. When can folks who might be impacted expect to have a more reliable idea of her path. As I said last night I’d be planning to leave today at some point or latest tomorrow early.

        1. Thanks Philip. Reading SAKs comments, it could be as far south as GA or even OTS. I’m really hoping for the OTS option.

  6. Thanks TK. First true “fall feel” morning of the season I think.

    Landfall from Florence continues to appear more likely, and while the exact details and location cannot yet be determined, a significant natural disaster is likely imminent for parts of the Southeast or lower mid-Atlantic. Residents there should be preparing to activate their hurricane plans, which will include evacuations for coastal residents. Here in New England, any impacts look to be limited. High surf will likely be the primary danger.

    1. I am somewhat surprised that we might totally escape the rains. I earlier assumed next weekend a washout. Fine with me.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Logan’s streak of temps 60F or higher has ended. I believe it began June 23rd.

    So, 7 + 31 + 31 + 7 = 76. About 20% of the year with the lowest temp 60F or higher.

  9. First recon plane of the morning arriving on the western flank of Florence. Should have some data soon.

    If I saw correctly, the high altitude mission ran yesterday north of Florence and I sure hope it runs again today. We need as much info as possible to help the models accurately guage the location/strength/and orientation of the western Atlantic ridge.

    2. I hear you. Depending on level of shear, the water is plenty warm to support
      explosive intensification. CAT 5 is not out of the question, again depending
      on shear.

  11. One could argue the NHC could bring Florence to Cat 1 hurricane status.

    Recon plane, first pass …

    Pressure down to 985 mb, wind gusts at 65 knots, slightly stronger on eastern side

  12. re: Inland affects of a major Hurricane.
    I can speak to experience on this matter.

    We booked a flight into DULLES. Keeping and eye on the hurricane, I changed
    our flight to an earlier one. Our flight was the last one into DULLES before
    the airport closed down. Some family members did not make it down there
    because they had later flights which were cancelled.

    We were in Charlottesville, VA when Hurricane Isabel struck in 2004.
    Charlottesville is more than 100 miles inland and the eye went directly
    over the city with still 70 mph winds with higher gusts. We were there for
    our nephew’s wedding. The rehearsal party was held during the height of
    the storm. Power was already out and they had to shut it down as they were afraid trees would land on the building. It was wild driving back to our hotel, which
    also had no power. In fact, most of the city was without power.

    The wedding was the next day, which was beautiful, but the damage
    was apparent. Trees down all over the place. I didn’t notice any particular
    structural damage to buildings, but the downed trees was immense.
    Reception was without power as well. A generator was brought in for the band to play.
    All in all it was a pretty cool experience.

    My point is obvious, even well inland, there can be much damage.

    https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2003_charts/at200309.gif

    2. Awesome experience, JPD. Your experience is what prompted my comment above…..and in some part why I’d leave now. Thank you for sharing. That is a wedding day to remember for sure

      Macs parents lived in Mt Pleasant SC maybe a few miles as the crow flies from Isle of Palm where Hugo made landfall. His aunt, uncle and many cousins lived in Charlotte. A couple of hundred miles difference. I read comments now that Charlotte was taken by surprise and I know that is true in part. The folks didn’t expect Hugo to maintain the power it did. But his relatives were prepared for some form of serious weather.

      We stopped at their home on the way to Charleston the following spring. The damage was still evident. And as we drove from Charlotte to Charleston, the scars on the land with wide paths of missing trees was eerie.

      2. It is eerie to drive through an area recently hit by a hurricane.

        We were in the outer banks a couple weeks after hurricane Arthur hit them, 3 or 4 years ago. Arthur was no comparison to Hugo and yet, the many signs were easily visible that something bigger than usual had occurred.

  13. the fact that i was planning on going down to the mid atlantic later this week to visit some of the universities, those plans have since changed.

    1. I am wondering IF these intensities are somewhat low.

      Would not surprise me to see the actual numbers come in higher.
      We shall see.

  16. https://s.yimg.com/lo/api/res/1.2/WxsJcDDTZXFf30WPi4ad5g–~B/YXBwaWQ9eWlzZWFyY2g7Zmk9Zml0O2dlPTAwNjYwMDtncz0wMEEzMDA7aD00MDA7dz00NDk-/http://obrag.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/north-carolina-coast.jpg.cf.jpg

    If this image works, what can be so ominous for storm surge in this case is that Florence would be coming into the coastal at a perpendicular angle and if she ever makes landfall near Wilmington, her right front quadrant would be pushing onto a concave shaped coastline.

    2. If the landfall is further north, then the worst storm surge can end up in Pamlico sound, but as you can see from the aerial, there are many more inlets that would send flooding surge to many locations many, many, many miles inland.

    3. the one saving grace is that there is alot of saltmarsh on the coast, you will see a massive difference in destruction in areas that are protected by salt marsh and those that are not. The salt marshes down there are amazing habitats. People forget that salt marsh, mangroves and seagrass beds protect the coastline.

      1. Excellent, thanks Matt ! I know what your talking about, but you explaining how they can be helpful makes me feel a bit better.

        1. im making a blog at the moment explaining this with a map of the salt marshes in the mid-atlantic, going to add some marine geology in my discussion which people always seem to forget even meteorologists.

  21. Daughter just told me her close friends grandparents live in Beaufort NC.

    And on a lose to home note…the supermarkets are insane. Fortunately, I only needed one thing that they were out of yesterday.

  22. There is an interesting discussion on FB weather page. People in NC are indeed preparing to evacuate. One individual mentioned Charlotte hotels are booking out.

  23. AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) What’s the latest in the year the temperature has reached 90 at Logan?

    A. 9/28
    B. 10/1
    C. 10/7
    D. 10/12

    2) What is the earliest in the fall that the temperature has reached 32 at Logan?

    A. 9/30
    B. 10/5
    C. 10/18
    D. 11/1

    Answers later today.

  28. 1st, the patriots blew a game that should of kept the texans out of the endzone.
    Defense overall was good but let up in the second half.
    Pass rush made the entire defense look better. The secondary still had massive blown coverages but because of the pass rush they got away with it. Some of this showed second half.
    Patriots offense was decent. I hope Hill is not lost for a long time, he was good.

      1. they did win, look at what I said. I said they blew a game that should of been kept the texans out of the endzone. they won but if the patriots defense kept at it, the texans would not of gotten in the endzone.

  29. Conditions in the Caribbean are going to be less favorable for strengthening so when Isaac makes it there (assuming current track projections hold), it may be a weak hurricane or even weaken to a TS. Hoping that’s the case.

    Helene is for the fishies.

    Still leaning slightly right of center for Flo, i.e., just offshore or NC coastal areas and no hard landfall.

  30. To all celebrating tonight and tomorrow, L’Shana Tovah!…Happy Rosh Hashanah! Happy New Year! Blessings and peace to you, your family and friends and to us all!

    As long as the Patriots have it figured out by Thanksgiving, I am never worried by September football. Now the Red Sox bullpen is another story!

    Although I dearly appreciate the chilly temperatures today (our school was an oven last week!), three days of stubborn, gray clouds are reminding me of early March here.

    Going with extreme dates on the brainbusters: D and A.
    Thanks, Longshot! Always love the quizzes!!!!

  31. I thought the Pats looked pretty good today. Especially so considering they’ve started slow in recent years and were playing what’s supposed to be a pretty good team. It wouldn’t have been as close if not for several preventable mistakes. We’ll get another very good measure of their readiness level next weekend. But I was encouraged.

    The real Houston team a Boston team needs to beat today is the Astros. They remain the Red Sox kryptonite. If they could even just play a competitive game against them tonight, it would be something to build on going into the playoffs.

      1. Me too. Well, I agree with weather thoughts because you both stated them. The Pats I had figured out on my own !!

      2. Sometimes I just have to get the sports thoughts out 🙂

        I’m definitely in agreement as well with your thoughts on Helene and Isaac. And while I can see the Florence scenario you’ve described, I think it may accelerate enough in the next couple days that a landfall becomes inevitable. NHC is probably favoring the hard landfall scenario more heavily just because they can’t afford not to. It’s certainly very possible to begin with, and if they forecast a near miss and it hits, there’d be chaos. Still some things to be determined though.

        2. You’re spot on about NHC. There are a bit of politics involved there. That’s also the reason why they can’t make drastic adjustments in their track forecast. If suddenly all guidance tonight said hard right turn 200 miles offshore and basically a miss, they’d have to take 2 or 3 updates to reflect that.

  32. The latest official forecast from the NHC takes Florence onshore near Wilmington, NC on Thursday as a 140mph Category 4 hurricane. That would be pretty devastating. The storm has also started the reintensification process, reclaiming hurricane status today and likely still poised for a more rapid, significant period of intensification in the next day or two.

    1. ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
      12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
      24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
      36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
      48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
      72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
      96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
      120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND

      1. I still think there is a chance Flo makes it to CAT 5 status. We shall see. Awfully close in the NHC forecast above.

    1. I’m looking forward to all the 00z runs because they have another high altitude recon flight going, sampling the environment around Florence.

  37. Answers to AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) What’s the latest in the year the temperature has reached 90 at Logan?

    A. 9/28
    B. 10/1
    C. 10/7
    D. 10/12

    The correct answer is D. (I decidedly got this one wrong!)

    2) What is the earliest in the fall that the temperature has reached 32 at Logan?

    A. 9/30
    B. 10/5
    C. 10/18
    D. 11/1

    The correct answer is B. (And I got this one wrong.)

    1. Thank you Longshot. I thought about D for one but went with Macs initials. I figure you can never go wrong with that 🙂

  39. ABC News, not only misspelled Chesapeake to “Cheapeake” but they also stated that a waterspout was causing tree damage over the bay……………….

    I just can’t bang my head against the table anymore. It’s killing me. 😛

    1. lol, maybe it was half waterspout and half tornado and the tornado part went and took out a tree or two 😛

      1. Looking like the Euro.

        Wonder if these fresh runs have that data from the high altitude recon mission that recently finished ??

  45. Perhaps this happens every time and I just noticed it with this system ……

    The global models maintain intensity right into landfall.

    The tropical models though, have Florence at highest intensity 1 day before landfall and have her in a weakening phase in the 24 hrs leading up to landfall.

  46. Good … another high altitude recon mission already in progress.

    They have dropped dropsondes starting at the Carolina coast, all the way out to Florence and are now circling the storm getting crucial info as well.

    Should be input (data from this mission) into the 12z model runs.

    1. looking again at the image, the dropsondes started at the Bahamas and have been dropped from there out to Florence.

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