Monday Forecast

40 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)
High pressure drifts to the south of New England today allowing a warm-up and a slight increase in humidity, that will become more pronounced tonight into Tuesday as a cold front heads toward and eventually passes through the region. During this time the shower threat will increase and by Tuesday midday and afternoon some heavy shower activity is possible, favoring areas closer to the South Coast. This front will push a little further south and as a bubble of high pressure tries to build in from the north Wednesday we’ll be drier, but cloudiness may linger in southern areas while clearing is more confined to northern locations. Another wave of low pressure will ride along the front to the south of the region Thursday, bringing additional cloudiness and a shower threat again favoring southern locations. High pressure will begin to build in Friday but a little lingering trough and chilly air aloft will allow some pop up showers to develops.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine starts dominant then becomes limited. Becoming moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall possible. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers in southern areas. Slightly less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy southern NH and northern MA, partly sunny to mostly cloudy southern MA southward. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower southeastern areas early. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)
High pressure will dominate the August 17-18 weekend with generally fair weather and low to moderate humidity, and only the slightest risk of a pop up shower near sea breeze boundaries near the eastern coastal areas August 17 and southern coastal areas August 18. A gradual build in heat/humidity is expected during the August 19-21 period with a slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)
Classic summer – warm to hot, moderate to high humidity, a few opportunities for thunderstorms, as high pressure ridging and a northward-displaced jet stream is the pattern for New England late this month.

40 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  7. Thanks TK
    Latest SREF run has all of SNE in that low tornado risk for Wed am into Wed pm. A new SREF run will be coming out soon and will see what it says
    SPC outlook for tomorrow has shifted the marginal risk into southern parts of CT and RI. Looks like WxWatcher and the other folks at NWS Mount Holly could have a busy day tomorrow.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  9. Will see if the new SREF run the low tornado risk is still there. The one previous to this run only had the low tornado risk in southeastern CT southern parts of RI.
    NWS Boston in their morning discussions mentions 0z EURO and 0z Ukmet came in further south while the NAM and SREF are on the north side of the guidance. This is like a coastal storm situation where a slight shift in either direction could have a whole different outcome. Will see what the next runs of these forecast models say.

  10. It feels like winter where we got two different model camps. NWS Boston in their discussions mentions the two different camps. I do agree with the SPC placing southern parts of CT RI in the marginal risk.

    1. Hi Dave, how about this, it looks like they are dealing with an outage?
      ‏
      NEXLAB @CODMeteorology
      Official Twitter account for the College of DuPage Meteorology program |
      8m8 minutes ago
      Reminder: For the remainder of this outage, keep checking our @codwxdata Twitter account for more frequent updates.

      Funny, how to link to a twitter page? (there is no URL to copy and paste?)
      But hopefully you can link to it

  12. I think the threat of strong to severe storms is south of SNE and will be dealing with pockets of heavy rain tomorrow afternoon and night.

  14. Instead of having all of SNE in that slight tornado risk it has just CT in it around 5am Wednesday. It brings that low pressure center over Long Island.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    I’ll be happy when the areas of high pressure no longer sink to our south and east, but stay just north of us.

    I’m also hoping Boston doesn’t get a lot of rain this week. The perpetual (weekly) flooding of the courtyard and trash area has wreaked havoc in the basement area where I live and cost the building a lot of money.

    A few interesting pictures from around the globe. This one is from Bosnia-Herzegovina and shows a shooting star, along with an incredible number of stars:

    https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/08/12/569778/1008×567.jpg

    This one is from Holland and shows a waterspout forming just off the coast:

    https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/08/12/569795/1008×567.jpg

    1. And so is Barry’s outlook for the weekend into next week when heat & high humidity returns. Wednesday will be the last comfortable day for awhile. 🙁

      Barry also predicts 4-5 more 90+ degree days before summer ends. That’s 4-5 days too many for my taste.

      2. AGREE!)(@&#$!(@&$(*!&@$*&!(*@&$(*!&@*$&!(&$@(*!&@$*&!*(@$&!()*@$(*!&@($*&!(*@$&(*!&@$(*&!(@*$&*(!&@$(*&!(*@$&(*!&@$*(&!@(*$&!*(@&$*(!&@$*(&!(*$&(*!&@$*!&$*(&!(*&$*(!&@$*(&!*(@&$*(!&@$(*&!*($&(*

    2. I have been running 1-3 degrees LOWER than Logan all afternoon long, if that means anything.

      I very briefly topped out at 87, but was at 85 or 86 all afternoon.
      What was Logan’s high? at least 88 that I observed at one point, but could easily have been 89.

        1. I saw an 88 observation on mesonet, but it could have been from rounding. I think SAK posted about that
          one time.

          1. The overnight climo data should confirm either way. What’s a degree or two, anyway? Still felt hot in the open sun. 😉

      2. I’ve been running 3 degrees consistently below Sutton center for several days. I’ve been keeping track. I did watch fourth cliff Humarock and it was pretty much on par with Logan. It sticks out into the ocean

        1. Logan May be wrong. Sea-Tac and NWS worked with cliff mass. Maybe reach out to him. There are resources.

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