Saturday Forecast

52 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)
A big “H” sits on New England today, providing pretty much the perfect autumn day. Hope you can enjoy it! High pressure slides off to the east with return southerly flow Sunday increasing the breeze (which you will notice), the humidity (which you won’t notice) and the cloud cover (gradually), but still a nice day overall, just maybe better for flying a kite in the afternoon. Our one unsettled day in this 5-day period comes Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the region with rain showers around. This front should be far enough offshore by Tuesday for dry weather to return, but during the Tuesday / Wednesday period while we get into cooler and dry weather again we will have to contend with what starts out as a northerly flow then switches to more easterly as low pressure forms south of New England and interacts with a “tilted over” high pressure area that starts out west of the region then bridges north of it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 interior lower elevations, 43-50 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers evening. Areas of fog. Damp. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Drying out. Highs 63-70. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)
The first couple days of this period may see a continuation of an east to northeast flow with high pressure to the north and west of the region and low pressure offshore. We may have to watch that low to see if it gets close enough to bring more cloudiness or even some wet weather to portions of the area. During the October 12-13 weekend and beyond we should transition to more of a westerly flow with dry weekend weather and a risk of rain showers by October 14. Temperatures during this time should be not too far from seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected with minor rain shower threats and mainly dry weather, changeable temperatures but not too drastically departed from normal values.

52 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. To South Central

    Replace them with what?
    就看看就看见会很尴尬股份分割 顶顶顶顶顶地对地导弹的点点滴滴

    跟

  4. Thanks TK!
    I agree they are useful, however with the frequency you use them they must be worn out, so you may want to replace them before this upcoming winter season, because I have a suspicion that they will be used a lot this year.
    But those other symbols could work just as well, it still drives home your point. 😉

  5. We didn’t quite make freezing here, we bottomed out at 34.6, just a touch of some very light frost on the shingles.

  6. Thank you, TK

    I’ll say ditto to SC for Sutton

    I don’t know what our low was but there was a light coating on grass. Gone too quickly

    But BEST NEWS. Food shopping accompanied by my two older grandsons is completed and I’m on deck with a lovely cool breeze and thermometer sitting at 50

    My accurite panel decided to sound an alarm at midnight. No idea as all alarms should be shut off. I unplugged and pulled the batteries but it didn’t help. I then buried it under a mound of pillows and went back to sleep

  7. Patch.com is really pushing the harsh winter (stormier than average, etc) based on “TFA” (not to be confused with “TOFA”). But of course it shouldn’t surprise anybody, since it’s Patch.

    Last winter was stormier than average. Look for the opposite this time.

      1. No, not stormier. I said opposite of last winter. We had a lot of systems go through here last winter. The Pacific jet was relentless. This winter it may be largely nonexistent.

        1. And yet so few snow days. Timing and size of storms seem to have decided to keep kids in school with late starts only

    1. HAHA! I have noticed, however, that around my area, as well as north central MA, northeastern MA, and southern NH where I have been (and outside) a lot the last several days, I have not encountered a single mosquito. The dry pattern is doing a lot of work in our favor.

      Also, to answer your query on yesterday’s blog, yes, that would likely mean back to back below normal snow winters for SNE. They often occur in pairs (which has to do with more large scale regimes). Keep in mind that last year NNE was quite snowy, with records even set in portions of northern Maine.

  9. We are also now witnessing in person that the Euro Weeklies have failed yet again. Not so much of a blow torch into October… 😉

    I did express my concern that they were not to be trusted, but around the net they were being taken as gospel.

  10. I will trust that the mosquitoes are gone after these die and we have one more frost

    Even with fewer, it only takes one and not safe to assume that one doesn’t have the disease.

    Frost Tolerance of impatiens
    The succulent stems and thin leaves of impatiens do not endure temperatures of 32 degrees Fahrenheit or below. Even with temperatures below 36 degrees, low elevations may collect frost and cause partial defoliation of impatiens.

    As you can see, other than some bugs holes and after summer sleepiness, these are happy and alive

    https://imgur.com/a/1Cb7Tjo

  12. I find it amazing that with such an active Pacific jet, and yet SNE couldn’t buy a decent snow event until early-almost mid-March.

    1. Sometimes with the active Pacific jet, not only comes all the storms, but also the Pacific mild air masses.

    2. It bought a whole lot of decent snow for NNE. We’ve had patterns like that many times. Active Pacific jet does not always translate into above normal snow for SNE, maybe 1/2 the time.

      1. At least that one snow event actually overachieved, and at above freezing temps (33-36F) no less. 🙂

  13. Thanks, TK, and Good Morning, everyone!

    31.8 the low this morning.

    “Monty Python’s Flying Circus” debuted 50 years ago today on the BBC…one of my all-time favorite shows (which explains a lot!!! 🙂 )

    “And now for something completely different.”

    2. I had a dear friend that I worked with for years who absolutely loved the show. I never got into it but can still hear him recounting the show from the night before.

      1. Interestingly, we are now 1.5 million miles closer to the sun compared to July, at Aphelion.

        Certainly, the length of day and sun angle lessen the amount of solar radiation we receive, but a clear October day can certainly feature nice, warm sunshine.

      2. Summer intensity is definitely not there. I was working in the sun and still needed long sleeves. 😉

  15. I know the euro has been wildly inconsistent.

    I do think there is general agreement of a western Atlantic low pressure area in the mid to long range and I wonder if it hangs around there long enough, that it may begin to acquire some tropical characteristics.

      2. You’re trying it on the craptacular version of WordPress. It will only go on so long before the blog gets a major facelift and new format. 😉

  19. Thank you, TK.

    Another interesting article on weather predictions/models/systems in the Wall Street Journal’s Saturday Review section:

    By Eugenia Cheng (WSJ, October 5, 2019)

    In the days before I have to travel, I start checking the weather forecast to see what I’ll need to pack and if my flight is likely to be delayed. At this time of year, as the seasons are shifting, the forecast seems particularly prone to changing every day, sometimes even hour by hour. If the weather forecast is wrong, we might be tempted to blame the meteorologists, but it could be the fault of the mathematics.

    The weather is what mathematicians call a dynamical system. This means that if we input data about the system as it is right now, a set of mathematical equations is supposed to tell us what state the system will be in at any given time in the future. In some systems, a slight difference in starting data causes only a slight difference in outcome. For instance, if you’re driving and you need to slam on the brakes, you can predict fairly accurately how long it will take you to come to a stop, based on the type of car and how fast you were driving. If your speed estimate is off by a few miles an hour, it won’t make a huge difference in your stopping time.

    With the weather, however, a very slight difference in starting conditions can yield a wildly different outcome further down the line. This is a feature of the field of mathematics called chaos theory, which is sometimes illustrated by the idea that a butterfly flapping its tiny wings in one part of the world can result in a storm somewhere else. While chaos theory was developed largely to study the weather, it has also been applied to other systems that are difficult to predict and can appear random, such as traffic flow and the behavior of large groups of people.

    A chaotic system is deterministic in principle but unpredictable in practice, simply because we can never measure the starting data accurately enough to be sure what is going to happen next. We can’t find all the butterflies. The best we can do is take whatever measurements are available and then use a whole collection of models to find the range of possible outcomes, along with their probabilities.

    When we say that a weather forecast is “wrong,” it often only means that the probability of a given outcome was simplified for the benefit of a general audience. Perhaps the way to make better forecasts is for us to become better at understanding probabilities.

    It’s worth noting, too, that day-to-day local weather forecasts are very different from models of climate change, which are global and work on the time-scale of decades and centuries. Long-term models deal with averages over long periods of time, which helps to smooth out the unpredictable effects of chaos theory.

    Chaotic systems have another feature: Not only can we not predict the future given our knowledge of the present, but once we reach the future, we can’t retrace our steps to find out exactly what caused it. Things always happen for a reason, but we can’t always tell what that reason is. A butterfly might have caused a storm on the other side of the world, but we can never actually trace that storm back to a particular butterfly.

    Chaos theory allows us to distinguish between things we don’t understand at all and things like the weather, which we understand but can’t measure very accurately. Science can’t predict the weather perfectly, but it’s still the best tool that we have.

    1. Unfortunately we never really had a shot at 28 for a couple hours anywhere – what you need for a hard freeze.

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