45 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 22 2020”

  1. I know a few people here could probably use this… It’s a bit expensive but I found a place online selling hand sanitizer that’s reputable. I ordered two bottles last Thursday for a friend and the tracking says it is arriving today (will report back on the quality when it gets here.) https://marianella.co/collections/hand-sanitizers/products/hydrating-hand-sanitizer-gel – one of my side jobs is in doing research for a YouTube channel so I’ve been using those skills to try to source things people need.

    1. Thanks for this Doc. Your contribution here is much appreciated.

      To tell you the truth, we have been using the wash your hands method
      since the onset since I could never get my hands on any hand sanitizer.
      Seems to be working OK., but nice score. Let us know how effective it is.

      Many thanks

      1. I will let you know. Since I have to still go in to work having hand sanitizer readily available is essential.

        1. Totally agree. Since I am able to work from home, the bathroom and kitchen sinks are not far away.

      1. Another place if you want to go in person is up in Gloucester there’s a distillery called Ryan And Wood that sells 1 liter bottles for about 30 dollars. (call ahead to see if they have any and when you go there they will put it in your back seat to stay distant.)

  2. We lost our previous board of directors president yesterday and one of
    our Senior staff lost a family member. This virus is a real killer for sure.

    I think that it will be a long long time before it is truly safe to be out and about, perhaps a year or 2. (yeah sure, things may open up, but it still won’t be safe)

  3. In our country we’ve had people protesting lockdowns, mostly from the right on the political spectrum. In Russia (and other places) some on the far left have protested against lockdowns and public health inadequacies.

    For example, the communists in Russia – who still have quite a bit of support – believe lockdowns are unnecessary, but public health measures have been inadequate. It was snowing in Moscow today (wet snow flakes) as communists celebrated Lenin’s birthday. See video below. No social distancing here, though some wore masks. These old-school communists are nostalgic for the Soviet era, saying that public health was better then.

    https://nos.nl/video/2331347-communisten-vieren-met-mondkapjes-de-150ste-verjaardag-van-lenin.html

  4. Thanks for this Doc. Your contribution here is much appreciated.

    To tell you the truth, we have been using the wash your hands method
    since the onset since I could never get my hands on any hand sanitizer.
    Seems to be working OK., but nice score. Let us know how effective it is.

    Many thanks

      1. Not surprised and that is the reason this whole thing is going to last much longer than it needs to.

      1. Thanks Joshua. It has really hit hard for those that really knew
        this person(s). I didn’t really know them, just of them.
        But this virus has been closing on on all of us and frankly I don’t
        see any end in sight. There are too many IGNORANT people
        out there that can’t seem to grasp the seriousness of this
        pandemic. It is those who will cause problems for the rest of us.

  5. And once again, the Massachusetts numbers are delayed. It’s no wonder with all
    of that nifty material they are now including.

  6. Within a week or sooner, the US will surpass 1,000,000 confirmed cases of covid-19 which means 10,000,000 + actual cases.

    1. Italy and Spain have had between 3k-6k new confirmed cases in each country every day for the past 5 weeks. I don’t see that ending any time soon, only declining to, say, 2k-4k new cases, and then 1k-3k. You’re probably going to see something similar here for the foreseeable future, only multiplied by between 5 and 7: So, say ~20k-25k new confirmed cases every day for the next couple of weeks, then ~15k for the next couple of weeks, ~10k after that, and so on and so forth. We’ll be at 2 million confirmed cases by some time in mid June.

    1. Death numbers are always grim. But, today’s in Massachusetts especially so.

      I know the hospitals are handling this crisis with exceptional professionalism and without rationing from what I can tell. Still, it’s really difficult on the front lines. I have tremendous respect for the medical profession.

  7. So what’s everybody’s feeling about the emergency order 5/4. He still did not officially extend it did he unless I missed it but seems like they might does it . Just weird being a little over a week away

    1. My guess being familiar with strategic planning but certainly not on his level…..Baker doesn’t need to extend until he gets all of the information from the experts he has at his right hand. It is in place until May 4. Baker has made it clear he makes sure he has all of the information possible before acting on anything. It took me a bit to have the confidence in him to be comfortable with this so I get why it makes folks anxious. But then I wouldn’t want him to react until he feels ready.

      1. I’m pretty sure baker will extend but come Monday it will be a week till it expires . He should let the folks know . I think it’s wise to extend past Memorial Day weekends if it’s not that’s asking fir problems. Lots of arguments going on up Hampton beach with folks trying to break rules now .

        1. It is easy to say he should and I was sure there with schools. But I was wrong. We just don’t have the information he has. But you can call or email his office.

          1. Just saying in general Vicki I do not need to call just some feedback from the group .

  8. This will sound provocative. But, the numbers in America just aren’t good. Little or no improvement overall. Plateau, yes. But, I fear that with the imminent loosening of restrictions in states in the south, west, and mid-west soon – ones that really aren’t ready – the plateau is going to be extended indefinitely. It’s a choice the country is making. But, let’s be frank. It’s the herd immunity approach at that point, with all its major caveats, including the big unknown – whether people are indeed immune to getting Covid-19 again. The overall policy succeeded to some extent in flattening the curve. But, it would appear the federal government is slowly but surely giving up. States are holding the reins. As a nation we’re morphing into the herd immunity approach without admitting it.

  9. Besides the herd immunity approach, there’s a corresponding Darwinian tack: Mayor Carolyn Goodman called for restaurants, hotels and casinos in Las Vegas to reopen, saying competition would ultimately determine which were safest to visit.

  10. 29,900+ new cases and 2300+ new deaths in 24 hours. We remain in peak and Massachusetts suffered its most fatalities to date with well over 200. This is not good. By the time numbers descend to “manageable” levels, we will be facing a second surge potentially more deadly than its predecessor especially when partnered with the influenza virus. And, as if that is not bad enough, the novel Coronavirus has learned to mutate into a minimum of 30 strains with some being more deadly than others. It doesn’t end there. Just wait until we begin to throw medicinals at it.

  11. This is going to get a little nerdy, folks. Bear with me. Found some interesting numbers on the little (and beautiful nation of Luxembourg – I adore that country). I’m grappling with numbers and trying to surmise what they tell us. My hunch is they hint at some of the problems with the Stanford or Santa Clara study, and also a recent report in Sweden (which had to be retracted today because it was flawed) on severely undercounted numbers of infections, with up to 30% of the population having antibodies. The problem with these serological tests is they’re relatively insensitive to differences in coronaviruses. Remember, colds are related to coronaviruses, and the tests may simply be detecting that a person has had rhinovirus x, which looks similar to a coronavirus.

    Let me first state I do think there are many more infections out there than the confirmed cases. But, it’s not 20 or 50 fold. I don’t even think it’s 10 fold.

    Luxembourg has the highest testing rate by far of any Western nation. Its rate of testing is more than 5 times higher than ours. In total, 36,100 people have been tested or 6% of the entire population. There are 3,654 confirmed cases. The curve has been crushed, not just flattened as they’re only getting around 20-30 new cases daily. To me this suggests the novel coronavirus’s march through the population has only just begun. It does then present policymakers with a dilemma. Opening up the country will expose the, say, 98% of the population who hasn’t been infected to the virus. But, you can’t keep a country in lockdown forever.

    1. Why this is important is that if only a very small percentage of the population has been infected nationwide (granted some areas like NYC has much higher rates of infection) and yet it’s killing a large number of people letting it go unhindered could easily cause the catastrophic numbers of deaths projected in some of the models.

    2. Very interesting.

      As an aside Macs parents lived in Luxembourg for a couple of years while a Macs dad got the Goodyear factory back in shape there. It was the best of the countries I worked with trying to work though all of the pensions my FIL had around the world after he passed so oddly your comments do not surprise me.

  12. I also observed someone on social media saying, about Massachusetts (paraphrased) “It’s fake because the spike was not as high as they said it could have been”. Yeah dummy, that’s because what we’ve been doing here in the state of Massachusetts is called “flattening the curve” which was something described to us by medical experts.

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