DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)
We’ve passed the mid-point of April and as we head through the second half of the month, the story of the weather pattern is about to be examined in three parts. This section of the blog looks at the first 5 days of it. The story upcoming is going to be typical of spring, with changeable temperatures, but a less typical precipitation regime compared to what we’ve been seeing, and that is a pattern that produces less, not more. High pressure over eastern Canada extends southward into the Northeast into midweek. Today, we’ll be on the eastern side of its axis, with a continued northwesterly air flow of dry but fairly mild weather, as the air mass in place is not that chilly. However as the axis shifts eastward, the general air flow, while weaker, will be able to turn more northeast to east Wednesday and Thursday, while at the same time we’ll see an increase in cloud cover from approaching low pressure. This will turn our region a little cooler. The aforementioned low is going to be one that struggles to “move in” with the current set-up, with a primary low curling back through the Great Lakes. Much like the last system, a frontal boundary to our south would move up this way if we had less blocking in place, but the low pressure area that forms on it is going to be shunted further south and away from our region as we head from mid to late week. How it plays out here is that our cloud cover will likely be thickest on Wednesday night and Thursday when we also have our greatest chance of wet weather – basically a limited and dissipating rain shield that favors bringing some light rainfall to areas mostly Boston west and south. By Friday this is pushed far enough south and a little break-off area of high pressure can get far enough south, axis to our east, that we have a fair, milder day, assuming this evolves quickly enough. After that, things start moving more west to east again and a low pressure area passing north of our region in eastern Canada will drag a cold front through here on Friday night or early Saturday, with a round of rain showers, then fair but cooler weather arriving early in the weekend.
TODAY: Clouds over Nantucket early morning otherwise plenty of sunshine. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH possible.
TONIGHT: Clear except some fog patches possible interior lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring Boston area west and south. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds thin out. Lows 41-48. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)
On to the middle third of the last half of April 2024. While we start and end the period with fair weather, the April 22-24 time window can be vulnerable to unsettled weather from a couple low pressure areas passing by to our south, if they come far enough to the north. Keeping an eye on that potential.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)
The last several days of April 2024 present what looks like a generally dry pattern, northwesterly air flow with a cool start and a milder finish.