1:43AM

For some of us, it’s still the weekend on this Labor Day Monday. But for continuity, this post will do its typical look at the 7 day period Monday through Sunday.

What happens when the temperature and the dewpoint meet? The air saturates, and did that happen quickly in much of northeastern and east central MA during the first hour of the new day. We went from a mostly clear sky to heavy fog in a matter of moments. As the sun rises and goes to work on the fog bank where it is (not everywhere will fog in but many places will during the pre-dawn hours), the fog will thin and dissipate with sun taking over. A great day is in store!

Then begins a 3-day unsettled period Tuesday through Thursday. The heaviest and most widespread rainfall is now expected to take place Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Getting the timing right on these is always a fun task. Anyway, some locations may see 1 to 2 inches of rain and even heavier amounts. The most likely area for the heaviest amounts as it stands now will be southern NH, but much of MA and even parts of RI can get in on the heavier action as well. A final cold front will pass through on Thursday, but it is unclear how much shower and thunderstorm activity will be associated with this. One thing is for sure, tropical humidity is going to be locked in for the 3-day period.

Friday and at least the start of next weekend look much better as high pressure moves in. However, Hurricane Leslie will be offshore in the Atlantic and sending large ocean swells to the New England Coast. Rip current threats will be high by the end of next week, and some areas prone to coastal flooding may see some, due to heavier surf and large swells. The storm itself will stay far offshore and never reach New England.

Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog into mid morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs ranging from near 70 immediate coast to near 80 well inland. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 61-66. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 72-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Muggy. Lows 67-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the morning. Tropical. Highs 77-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 77.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 76.

11:22AM

Upper level disturbance produces more clouds and a remote shower threat today but still not a bad day! (For my computer-model-following readers, this disturbance was seen several days in advance by the European Model and eventually picked up by the GFS. The NAM showed it in the short range. Again though, a win for the Euro, seeing it first.)

Labor Day looks great!

Moisture spreads into the region in advance of a frontal system Tuesday. Yes some of this moisture was once Isaac but one wouldn’t know it was the remains of a hurricane as it will just produce typical showers and possible thunderstorms, though some may be heavy.

Going to reduce the shower threat a little for Wednesday as we will be between the first slug of moisture and another cold front to the west. But it may turn out quite warm and muggy.

Shower and thunderstorm threat Thursday with a cold front, but the magnitude of this threat I am not sure of yet…

Friday and next weekend look just fine at this stage!

Tropical Storm Leslie, soon to be a hurricane, remains over water for the next few days. Some of the predicted forecast tracks take it toward Bermuda and this area should monitor the storm. I still feel the center stays east of Bermuda, though a side-swiping may take place. Too early to really be certain of this. The East Coast of the US will likely see large ocean swells from the hurricane by next weekend. Something to keep in mind if you have plans to make a late season visit to a beach.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s immediate shore to middle 70s inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 coast to 80 well inland. Wind SE-S 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon and night. Low 62. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning. Low 65. High 83.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon. Low 62. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 74.

10:12AM

I should have made a note that the Euro model was picking up on a minor upper level disturbance that may add some clouds and a remote chance of a few showers on Sunday. This will certainly not ruin what will be a great Labor Day Weekend, however! Don’t cancel any plans you have.

Isaac’s remains, if they are even identifiable as such, will pass through in pieces after the weekend is done. The timing for this moisture is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. This represents a slight change in that the moisture will be a little slower in arriving than I indicated on my previous forecast. It is also evident that the “possible” cool/dry shot of air for the middle of next week is no longer in the cards, and that it will probably be somewhat muggy and unsettled through Thursday as trailing trough comes along behind the Isaac moisture. Details far from being known for all of this, you’ll just see a more unsettled end to the forecast than you did on the previous one. In the mean time, enjoy a great weekend!

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, may touch 80 some inland areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH through midday shifting to E and diminishing slightly to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in a few areas. Lows 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers especially far west and north of Boston. Highs in the 70s, around 80 some areas interior northern MA and southern NH. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs from the lower 70s immediate coast to lower 80s inland. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 78.

4:26PM

I could write a repeat of yesterday’s blog, because nothing has really changed in the outlook at all. So the forecast will be almost a carbon copy, minus minor tweaks. Let’s summarize and look ahead a bit in short-format before updating.

Friday: Hot & windy but not too humid.

Labor Day Weekend: Cooling trend, great weather!

Isaac: Spinning down over the South, and all we will hear from it is some remnant moisture in the form of showers next Tuesday.

Kirk: A hurricane that will stay way out to sea and we’ll never hear from it.

Leslie: A tropical  storm, eventually a hurricane, but another fish storm,  probably never even making it as far west as Bermuda.

Did they skip J? No, Joyce already happened, but nobody noticed… 😉

Back at home next week: Maybe a brief shot of very cool air around the middle to end of next week but the overall pattern will still feature above normal temperatures during the next 2 weeks.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, & our dear friends in RI too. 🙂

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 90-95 except 80s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. 1 or 2 isolated showers or thunderstorms may reach southern NH from the northwest. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-85. Wind NW to N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-59 except 60-65 coast and urban centers. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 73.

6:19PM

High pressure maintains control through the coming holiday weekend. Only a cold front will whistle through Friday night nearly unnoticed, other than the cooling trend that will take place during the weekend after a mid-summer-hot Friday.

The next threat of showers will be about Tuesday of next week, some of which may be moisture from the remains of Isaac.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows ranging from near 50 inland valleys to near 60 along the coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs ranging from upper 70s Cape Cod to the middle 80s inland. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 90-95 except 80s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 78.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 75.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 61. High 77.

12:34AM

It almost seems unfair. We are about to enjoy 7 dry days in southern New England while the Gulf Coast continues to deal with a hurricane producing some flooding rain and wind damage. Granted, Isaac is not a major hurricane, but the fact that it has been meandering slowly along the coast during Tuesday night with much of its circulation over water has allowed it to remain organized and stay at category 1 hurricane status instead of weakening to a tropical storm. Intensity won’t much matter, however, when it comes to the tremendous rainfall that will be released by the storm. Flooding will be a problem in Louisiana and parts of Alabama and Mississippi during the next day or 2. As Isaac weakens and moves inland and northward, heavy rain will occur northward toward the lower Ohio Valley by the end of the week. In many areas this will be beneficial as the region has been in drought. In some areas, the rain will come too quickly, however, and lead to flooding. The active tropics also contain Tropical Storm Kirk, but this storm will remain at sea and never bother any land areas.

Back home, high pressure will be in control of the weather for the next 7 days overall. Temperatures will be determined by the wind direction. A refreshingly cool and dry day with a northwest wind today will give way to warmer then hotter weather through Friday as winds turn more west to southwest with time. The Labor Day weekend will start quite warm then cool down slightly as winds turn more northerly then eventually onshore.

The remains of Isaac, if they ever do reach the region with rain or showers, would be expected in about a week, or around Tuesday of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 73-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s except upper 40s inland valleys and 60 urban centers.  Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-86, some upper 70s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-63, mildest in urban centers. Wind light WSW.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 86-91. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Increasing clouds. Low 58. High 75.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 61. High 78.

9:42PM

The discussion from the previous entry pretty much remains true. The only tweak is to speed up the timing of the cold front slightly for Tuesday. Most shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in the morning, with an additional shower or storm possible later in the day as a trough comes along just behind the front.

August will end hotter. Going to bump Friday’s temperatures up slightly and knock the weekend temperatures down just a touch for now.

Otherwise, no major changes, and that leads us to the updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clouds move in. Showers and thunderstorms arriving mostly after 4AM.  Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the morning, but one more possible during mid or late afternoon. Humid. Highs middle 70s south-facing coasts, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Cooler and drier. Lows 53-58. Wind W-NW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 74-79. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 83.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 62. High 92.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 88.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 62. High 83.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Increasing clouds. Low 61. High 78.

1:34AM

The Final Five: The home stretch of August has arrived. These final 5 days will be largely uneventful in southern New England, with only Tuesday being the day for unsettled weather, showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region. Ahead of this front, a warm day starts the week today. Behind it, a cooler and drier day is expected Wednesday. Warmth returns to the region Thursday and Friday as high pressure dominates at both the surface and upper levels.

Labor Day Weekend: Obviously this 3-day period of September 1 to 3 is a little far away for great detail, but at this point it looks like it will start out on the hot side Saturday. Whether it stays that way all the way through the long weekend is uncertain, and will depend somewhat on what happens with the track of Isaac and the remains of this tropical cyclone, which is expected to hit the Gulf Coast in the next few days. See the comments below this entry for what will be ongoing discussion on this storm.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s south-facing coasts, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds move in. Showers and thunderstorms arriving mostly after midnight. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs middle 70s south-facing coasts, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 78.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 83.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 62. High 88.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 92.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 85.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Increasing clouds. Low 64. High 82.

11:29AM

Some Atlantic moisture in both lower levels as well as indirectly in higher levels will be responsible for some additional cloudiness at times this weekend but the weekend overall will be not bad, and will remain rain-free.

Monday looks brighter. Tuesday continues to be the day that features a shower and thunderstorm threat as a cold front moves in. A brief shot of cooler air will likely follow this front (reminding you that Fall is not far away) but then Summer will remind you it is still in command as it warms up late in the week and possibly heats up for Labor Day Weekend (more on this tomorrow).

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Variably cloudy but including some sunshine during the day. Patchy fog at night. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the 70s coast to 80-85 inland. Wind variable but often E to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 77.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 82.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 86.

8:49PM

This really is about the best kind of weather you can have in August – maybe a little humid for some, but certainly not oppressive. And folks near the east-facing coast will enjoy a refreshing wind from the ocean at times during the next few days. This will take place as high pressure centers itself north of the region. The next eventful weather system will be early next week as a cold front arrives from the west.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, RI…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s, a few upper 50s in valley areas. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s coast to inland, cooling back to the lower 70s later in the day near east-facing coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-65, few upper 50s inland valleys. Wind light E becoming variable.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-85 coast to inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 83.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 84.

10:21PM

High pressure will rule the roost for days on end. The next frontal system is not due until about a week from now. The position of the high will determine local temperatures (sea breezes, etc.). East-facing coastal areas will likely be coolest this coming weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches inland valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows from the lower 50s inland valleys to near 60 urban centers. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny except filtered sun over Cape Cod & Islands. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest Cape Cod & Islands as well as any south facing coastal areas. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of fog inland valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows from the middle 50s inland valleys to lower 60s coastal and urban areas. Wind light SW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 86.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 78.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 86.

8:44PM

A trough of low pressure centered in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will weaken during the next few days and high pressure will be centered off the East Coast. Weak surface low pressure will pass well southeast of New England tonight with another one to do the same thing by Wednesday. Other than some clouds in southeastern areas, these are not going to have a significant impact. By later this week, high pressure at the surface will become dominant and pretty much guarantee dry weather through the coming weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 70s coast, lower 80s inland Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 86.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 83.

8:50PM

The next 7 days will feature weather that would be expected to occur in late August. The most “eventful” day will be Monday, as low pressure offshore tracks close enough to bring some rain to southeastern areas especially RI, southeastern MA, Cape Cod, & The Islands. Some light rain or sprinkles may push a little further west and north than these areas. Another low pressure area will track offshore Wednesday but probably too far out to impact the land areas with any precipitation. On a couple occasions, a few air mass showers or storms may be found over inland locations especially Tuesday & Wednesday. High pressure will be more dominant the second half of the week with little if any rain and fairly warm temperatures along with some humidity.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-60 except 60-65 urban areas. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain especially RI through southeastern MA midday on, and just a chance of a few sprinkles or a period of light rain other areas late afternoon. Highs from 72-77 south of Boston to 77-82 north and west of Boston. Wind light S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-80 coast and Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. . Wind S-SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 82.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

2:39AM

This is just a forecast update, out all the way through the week ahead, with another update and a full discussion coming this evening…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Slightly less humid. Highs around 80, 70s coastal areas. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 50s valleys to middle 60s urban areas. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 75-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered PM thunderstorms. Low 63. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 82.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 84.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

9:41AM

Slower front means a wetter Saturday. Rain is still needed so it’s not all bad, but sorry if it messed up any outdoor plans. Overall, the summer has been cooperative for outdoor plans to this point, with few exceptions.

Still look for a decent day tomorrow, not hot, not chilly, somewhere in between, a bit drier but not refreshingly dry.

Still thinking we turn wet here Monday, especially afternoon & night, and that the balance of next week typical August late summertime weather with warmth, humidity, and maybe a few showers/storms to dodge but overall rain-free.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudiest south and east where showers will linger at times before moving out. Elsewhere, mostly cloudy to partly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Humid. Highs in the 70s, near 80 where enough sun shines. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers especially over southeastern MA and RI. Humid. Lows in the 60s.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Slightly less humid. Highs around 80, 70s coastal areas. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. PM rain/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered PM thunderstorms. Low 63. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 82.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 84.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.