DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Discussion…
Today is a transition day out of the cool interlude we’ve had for several days, although we’ll still have a gusty northwesterly breeze in the wake of the extratropical storm that was once Hurricane Teddy. The circulation around that large storm has pulled some of the smoke plume from the western US wildfires, which had drifted into Canada, down across the Northeast, and we’ll see that in the sky in the form of a haze today. What you’ll also notice today is a warmer feel to the air, despite the northwesterly wind, as the source region for this air is warmer than what we had previously. This warming trend will continue through Friday, even when a weakening cold front arrives, so weak in fact that the weekend now looks pretty warm as well. Some models and some media forecasts have indicated a shower threat for the weekend, but I am leaving this out of the forecast at this time as I do not think there will be enough moisture and instability to result in them. Two additional things: 1) The rough surf along the coast will gradually settle down today. 2) The fire danger will continue to run very high today with a combination of very dry ground and a gusty breeze.
Details…
TODAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Some aloft decreases. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunshine. Occasional smoke aloft. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 74-81. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28- OCTOBER 2)
An eastward shift in large scale features will bring a broad trough of low pressure eastward into the Northeast and New England during this period. Showers are most likely September 28 and September 30 with the passage of two frontal systems as temperatures that start the period above normal start to cool down in stages. By the first couple days of October, it is expected be much cooler with just a risk of a few instability showers otherwise dry.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)
Expecting high pressure to be in general control with mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.
Thanks TK.
Thanks tk. This lack of rain is genuinely maddening.
68° dewpoint down here in Sarasota the locals think fall has arrived.
Yikes! I don’t want to know what typical mid-summer dewpoints are like.
80° several times last week. 75°+ dews coming up from Cuba end of this week.
Thank you TK.
Thanks TK. I don’t recall any local media forecasts showing even the remote chances of rain this weekend. All I have seen have been for Monday/Tuesday next week.
That’s funny, because not only did Eric, Pete, and the NWS all have it last night (from what I saw on Twitter), but all of my forecasts for the local area last night all had a slight chance for a shower on Sunday.
I watched five locals last night and four of them had it.
I have just elected to leave it out for now although Sunday night…. May happen.
Which was the station that didn’t have it? Maybe that was the one I saw.
GEFS update happening today as of the 12Z
New wx post.