Christmas Weekend Forecast

117 Comments

2:40AM

Merry  Christmas!

It looks like 2011 won’t be the year for a White Christmas for most of the region, but still a few areas may get coated white with a little snow today and a few more tomorrow, thanks to some ocean-effect snow showers on the South Shore today and more widespread snow showers later tomorrow as a potent disturbance moves in from the west northwest. It’ll sure feel like late December too, with temperatures actually running below normal today and barely recovering back toward normal Christmas. What else is coming up?

– Sunday’s disturbance ignites an ocean storm just too far east to do much on Monday.

– A Tuesday warm-up is followed by a fast-moving storm from the southwest, and with warmer air in place mostly rain will fall, but snow may sneak in at the end as cold air comes back.

– Quiet weather for midweek.

– A disturbance coming along a dominant northern jet stream will bring a chance of snow for the last 2 days of 2011. It’s too early to determine if anything significant will take place.

Boston Area Forecast…

CHRISTMAS EVE DAY: Mostly sunny except bands of ocean-effect clouds and snow showers on the South Shore with minor accumulation from near Marshfield southward. High 29-34. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind N-NW 5-10 MPH.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic snow showers, may mix with rain southeast of Boston. High 35-40. Wind NW-SW 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with some minor accumulation. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 34-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms later in the day and at night, may change to snow before ending overnight. Low 33. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

117 thoughts on “Christmas Weekend Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK and Merry Christmas to you! Snow showers sound good ~ a little touch of winter, but still safe for travel! Have a safe and joyous Christmas Eve!

  2. Good morning and Merry Christmas Eve Day !!

    Morning light reveals some low clouds rolling in off the ocean. Hoping to see a few flurries or snowshowers at some point today.

    Have a great day all !!

    1. Perhaps there is still a chance the snow showers are a little more widespread than expected and a few more can see some flakes in the air. At least it’s not overly warm, feeling like April. I’ll take cold and dry over a warm rain (1982).

      1. I think I remember that very warm Christmas and one a couple years before it that was frigid….I dont think the high temp made 0F. A few flurries in eastern parts of Marshfield.

  3. Thanks TK and Merry Christmas!!!
    A 7 day outlook with the chance for wintry precipitation and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
    The Snow Index is at 1 which is MINOR for any snow that should fall over Christmas weekend since it does not look to exceed 4 inches.
    Thunderstorm Index Tuesday at a 1 which is MINOR since no severe weather is expected and I think any wintry precipitation on the backside is for the interior. Southeastern portions of SNE the temperature could be quite mild with the current storm track.
    Late in the week its too early to give impacts.
    If everything pans out the final week of 2011 COULD feature quite the variety of weather.

    1. The Tuesday system looks like it will pack a punch as a dynamic entity, and with the temp contrast in place I thought going for thunderstorms yet again was not a bad approach at this point.

  4. Thank you TK and Happy Christmas Eve to all. I suspect I will not be starting my computer tomorrow so would like to wish all who celebrate a Very Merry Christmas. I have enjoyed getting to know you all this year!

    I would love to see snow flurries – Christmas snow is the most magical of all. John, I have missed seeing you here and am very glad that you will not have plowable snow!!

    1. Thank’s Vicki. Merry Christmas to you, I hope you have a great day. I just did not feel like posting this week. I hope the snow tomorrow is just a flurry.

    1. Hi John – enjoy your time with your family!!! Are your air decorations already on this morning? We have all of our lights on – inside and out!

      1. I always enjoyed turning the lights on every night at dusk with my brother, and I do the same now with my son, since I live in the same house I did as a kid (only in the upstairs of the 2 family now). But today and tomorrow they stay on, inside and out, all day and all night. 🙂

        1. Same here TK. I wish you a very Merry Christmas. Thank’s again for this blog I so much enjoy It. Bruins just smoking hot right now. Merry Chhistmas TK.

        2. TK – what a wonderful tradition. I wish I lived in the house where I grew up. I will drive by it every time I’m in the Belmont area and relive wonderful memories.

          My grandson turns the outside lights on every night now and helps with the inside ones. When his mom and dad told him to turn them on this morning his eyes got big as saucers. Being 4 he’s still just figuring out what it’s all about!

          1. We lived in the house where my wife grew up in the neponset area. Where we just have the one we decided to sell as we did not want to raise him in the city. Born and raised in the city my wife loves it here in the country. We all have adjusted very well down here. I love Pembroke so much, I should say we love it. I can’t believe its been almost 4 years.

      2. Yes they are all on and will be on now till Monday morning. I told my son we could leave them on all xmas eve and day nonstop. Though they have a good ice cover on them, there starting to thaw out now. We did have plans for later today but they got scratched. So besides some odds and ends for tomorrow we will be home tonight just us. My wife and I like that. We are hosting tomorrow so quiet day today is good. I enjoy the conversations we have and again Merry Christmas to you and your family, hope santa is good.

  7. Don’t forget to track santa on Norad Santa – I have to tell you all a secret. I say I’m checking where he is for my grandson but most of the time my grandson is off playing and I’m just checking for me 🙂

  8. Sky has a more uniform base to it as I look out towards our east and the flurries (hey, its worth a post this year, right ??) are picking up some. Hopefully this will solidify some and move inland for many towns to see.

  10. My airblowns outside having a tough time. They all have a thick coating of ice on them.
    It was cold last night. Not to bad out there now. The sun was nice and bright but now getting somewhat dimmer.

    1. I had to just go out and put an extra string from a snowman to a bush. He was having trouble staying upright too

  11. John its look like you won’t have to plow and be able to enjoy Christmas with your family. As I said earlier in the week I love snowstorms but would not want to mess up holiday plans.

    1. JimmyJames. I am very happy about that. I was in bad space this week thinking about that storm and the fact that I could have missed the holiday with my family. In fact that is why I have not posted at all this week. I am suspecting tomorrow is just a flurry and should not havto worry about that, I hope. I am off till Tuesday, I hope, and just so much looking forward to this very special time of year. I may end up being wrong on my gut feeling as it looks warm for next week. But I still have a week. It can snow anytime it wants to now after tomorrow. I am just glad it did not pan out and everybody can get to where there going in a safeway. JJ Merry Christmas to you and your family. Hey BM posted yesterday on the wbz blog.

  12. Thanks John and the same to you and your family. There still maybe some wintry precipitation later in the week but Tuesday looks like another rainorama for the most part.

  13. I don’t see BM comments on the BZ blog. In fact there has not been a new blog posted their in a few days. Its turned into moslty a troll blog anyway.

    1. JJ click all blogs It is under a few holiday snow flakes by MM yesterday. Barrys blog today is saying should stay dry and quiet for next weekend.

  16. First I want to wish everyone here a Merry Christmas! 🙂

    Now for some troubling news:

    Matt Light got injured in warmups and will not be playing today…two rookies will take his place. Now I have a bad feeling that Miami could be in this game for much of it and don’t get me started about our defense.

    NAO and AO remain positive beyond the New Year…now I am beginning to wonder if my thoughts of a pattern change in mid-January will take place…wait until February??
    Yesterday it looked like a -NAO at some point soon.

    Regardless, have a very Merry Christmas everyone…Enjoy! 🙂 🙂

  17. The NAO is tough to predict and could change suddenly.
    As I said yesterday Henry Margusity going with The Farmers’ Almanac for February whichs calls for 12 plus inches of heavy wet snow Mid Atlantic to Northeast.
    Dolphins will not be a day at the beach and will play hard.

  19. The other thing no pressure on the Dolphins since they are not going anywhere and to me when a team’s fires a coach that fires up the players.

    1. Agree. Again this is one of those trap games. But I think Brady delivers us the gift. I wonder what kind of gift he gives his receivers. I had heard before he takes very good care of them.

  20. As I said yesterday the models are going to have a hard time over the 2 weeks, the GFS included. It’s obvious the GFS is having issues with the midweek weather maker.
    The 12z GFS had some decent snows for next weekend, actually the best set up I’ve seen so far this winter.

    1. Actually, I feel it is the pattern that is going to have a hard time changing the next 2 weeks…I have been preaching all along that SE ridge is going to leave when it feels it is good and ready, not when we think it should.

      After seeing today’s NAO forecast, I am starting to lean towards mid-late Janurary for serious pattern change.

      1. It certainly won’t leave, but if the stratospheric warming can producing blocking, it would prevent the ridging from reaching New England. That would also produce a stormy pattern with tight gradients.
        I’m not all that worried with today’s NAO forecast, as it hasn’t been consistent, but what has been very consistent is the weakening PV and warming of the stratosphere.

          1. The stratospheric warming will greatly affect the Polar Vortex, perhaps sending it southward.
            My knowledge on stratospheric warming is very limited, but I think the stratospheric warming will be noticed.

  21. Merry Christmas to Tom, John, Vicki, Joshua, Philip, Retrac, Charlie, TK, Hadi, JJ, Shotime, OS, Scott, Longshot, JMA, Matt, Haterain, Rainshine, Matt Souza, Tjammer and Mark. Also to anyone that I may have forget.

    John, Thanks! I am feeling much better.
    Charlie (Snow Scrooge), Enjoy your time at the game.

    1. Merry Christmas to you Coastal! I didn’t realize that you were “under the weather” so to speak. I wish you a continued recovery. 🙂

    2. Good Coastal glad your better. Guess I may be wrong with my gut feeling. Still
      have a week but I am thinking not going to happen. Temps next week look warm. It was all good fun. Again Merry Christmas, hope your kids enjoy.

    5. Merry Christmas to all!
      I enjoy all of your diverse perspectives and you all bring something unique and positive to this great blog!
      I think I’ll be up to the wee hours wrapping the last of the presents for my 4 boys so I’ll keep an eye out for santa!
      Enjoy.
      TJ

      1. Merry Christmas to you. And It is nice to have you here. 4 boys wow. We just have one and he is seven. Since he got up he keeps asking when is it going to be night time, when is it going to be tomorrow. I think he is excited, do ya think.

  28. Well I just put out the music box and the lights do a light show to the music. I have It at a good volume, oh what the neighbors must be thinking. You know what I’m thinking, who cares.

  29. Merry Christmas everyone! There may not be any snow around here but at least it is cold out. I hope everyone has a safe and happy Christmas!

  31. Interesting note from the NWS in Maine saying the new GFS going with a colder solution and the low staying south of New England. I am not getting my hopes up.

  33. I’m off to get ready for church anda drive around to see the lights

    Merry Christmas to everyone. TK thank you for giving us all the opportunity to get to know each other and enjoy the weather together

  34. Happy holidays to everyone.
    tonight: cear and santa will be needing the thick coat as temps will fall into the upper10s to low 20s
    christmas day will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 30s with some snow showers or flurries for the interior with a few isolated rain or snow showers around in eastern mass. dustings are possible in the high terrain.
    christmas night. Parlty cloudy a chance of snow or rain showers lows in the upper 20s
    monday decreasing clouds highs in the upper 30s
    monday night clear lows in the mid 20s
    tuesday mostly cloudy with afternoon rain highs in the low 40s
    tuesday night evening showers with lows in the mid 30s
    wednesday though thursday night partly cloudy highs in the upper 30s lows in the mid 20s
    friday through saturday mostly cloudy a chance of snow or rain showers near the coast.
    this pattern that will not favor any real snow fall will effect us though at least late next week. Long range models are flipping between possibilities after new years. as of right now it looks warm instead of cold. 🙁

  36. Merry Christmas to all of you who celebrate it this night and tomorrow. And Happy Hanukkah to you if that is your holiday! And happy anything else too! 🙂

    I will be partaking in my Christmas traditions, or continuing to do so, tonight onward, but will be visiting and updating the blog regularly for the next several days. The next update will probably be posted later this evening. Don’t worry, I’ll be to bed before Santa comes. 😛

  38. I fired up my snow maker I have a good coating of snow across my yards and on and around my out door christmas decorations
    also i think the early to mid week storm will be to warm for any wintery precipitation

    1. Let me check that.. Sometimes if you post 2 or more links it goes to moderation. I’m not sure why. I’m going to have my tech geek wife check it for me. 🙂

    2. It sometimes asks me to put in name and email again. If I do it fast I put in wrong sometimes. That is when I got moderation, bet that happened with you.
      Merry Christmas Philip.

    3. TK’s website must be experiencing technical difficulties with posting other websites. Anyway, have a Merry Christmas everyone and goodnight to all! 🙂

  42. It was a setting. You can now post up to 4 links without needing to be approved again. It’s a built-in safeguard against spam, which tends to be loaded with many hyperlinks.

    1. Thanks TK….perhaps it would be best though if I just post one link at a time from now on just to be sure.

      Now I will say goodnight again to everyone and Merry Christmas to you John! Have a wonderful day with your family tomorrow! 🙂 🙂

  44. Dinner is over. Reindeer food is sprinkled on the lawn. My grandson saw Santa flying overhead. He’s sleeping but sadly has a 101 fever which hopefully will break in the night. I’m sitting in the window looking for the big man too and waiting for the grown kids to go to sleep so presents can magically appear beneath the tree

    Doesn’t get much better. A Magical Christmas to all. A special hanukkah to all who celebrate it’s wonders as well

    1. Vicki so sorry to hear about your grandson, I so hope he feels better tomorrow.
      My son just went up. He is so excited. We have been tracking santa all night. Take care Vicki.

    2. About the same here. But it’s my daughter (who is grown) that has the nasty cold. Other than that, all is generally well on this peaceful Christmas Eve. I’ll be listening to The Beatles Christmas to bring my late brother closer to me, and a bit later, the annual sparkling cider, cheese & crackers, and midnight viewing of American Christmas Carol starring Henry Winkler. 🙂

  47. Merry christmas to all!
    Wrapping is done finally! Kids will have a good year, way too much under the tree. Was outside a few minutes ago to empty the bucket of water for the reindeer, it’s cold!
    Heading to bed, at least we have them trained to wait until 8 before waking us up!
    Enjoy!
    TJAMMER

  48. We could have quite the rainorama Tuesday night into Wednesday if the EURO is correct. Its hard to go against since the NAO will be positive. The GFS and NAM going for a colder solution and a track closer to the benchmark but I am not buying that at the moment.

  50. Merry Christmas!

    Vicki – I hope your grandson is feeling better today.

    I was out earlier and there were a few snowflakes flying around. We had a quiet Christmas eve and listened to Christmas music on the radio – 99.5 f.m. This morning we have been listening to Baroque music. We don’t decorate outside with the exception of a wreath on our door. But we have a tree with all the colored lights and some greenery and pretty candles (don’t usually light them) . I am about to start baking gingerbread men cookies and other goodies and then our dinner for tonight. It’s just going to be the 2 of us but that’s okay – we enjoy the holiday together!

    John – so glad there is no storm around so you can be with your family!

    1. Bigger flakes drifting down lightly in Sudbury, too. 🙂 🙂 Snow! 🙂

      TK – hope you and your family have a wonderful Christmas! Hope your daughter is feeling better.

      1. She’s turned the corner, and a very happy one this morning. My son had a bit of a cold too but everyone seems better today. Thank you and Merry Christmas to you!

  53. Big difference NAM and GFS vs. euro for Tuesday storm. Euro cuts way inland and nam and GFS are inside benchmark.

  54. Was up until 2:30 putting a couple things together and now I am so tired!! Thank god he still takes a nap and it should 2-3 hours!!

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