Trying So Hard

137 Comments

10:30PM

It’s like the atmosphere is trying to snow, but just can’t seem to do so in a meaningful way. We’ll likely have a few more so-close-yet-so-far episodes over the next few days…

Friday… Low pressure will move rapidly east northeastward just south of New England but with marginal temperatures, much of the Boston area will see little if any in the way of snow accumulation. In fact, the bulk of the precipitation may fall as rain in the city, before mixing with and possibly changing to snow toward the end of the precipitation event later in the morning.

Friday night / Saturday… Colder air drains in, and winds turn north to northeast on the east side of a high pressure area. Cold enough air will be in place to cause some ocean-effect snow showers. How far these penetrate inland depends on the trajectory of the wind. Expect at least the coastal areas from Boston to the South Shore to see some snow shower activity Friday night and Saturday morning. Only minor accumulations are expected in some locations.

Saturday night (Christmas Eve)… Santa will find a mostly clear sky and cold temperatures as he travels through the area.

Sunday (Christmas Day)… A strong disturbance in the upper levels approaches from the northwest with clouds moving in and a chance of snow showers. Later in the day and at night this energy will jump to a low pressure area developing offshore. Current indications are that this system will be too far out and too fast to throw any meaningful snow back into the region. We should keep an eye on it, however, as just 24 hours ago, computer models were not showing much of anything, a clear sign they continue to have problems with the pattern we are in.

Next week… Tranquil late December weather is expected with no major cold or storms.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Rain and areas of fog developing. Temperature cooling to 35-40. Wind shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain mixing with and possibly changing to snow northwest to southeast with minor accumulation of snow especially outside Route 95. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny in the afternoon. Temperature dropping to near 32 in the morning then recovering to a high about 40 in the afternoon. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, especially near the coast from Boston to the South Shore with minor accumulation possible. Low 20-25. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, especially in the morning and especially from Boston through the South Shore with additional minor accumulation. High 29-34. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind N-NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High 34-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 26. High 36.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 40.

137 thoughts on “Trying So Hard”

  2. TK, good reading — especially your Xmas Day thoughts. And in case I forget to mention it later, have a great Xmas weekend.

  3. Thanks TK !!

    Burlington, VT and Watertown, NY both still above freezing !! Amazing…..however, now only a hundred or two hundred miles northwest of them, the surface wind is around to the northwest and the temps immediately crash.

    Logan ended up yesterday with a +18F temp departure. The other 3 stations were similar, as I recall….. either +19F or +20F.

    Happy Friday all !! Vacation starts at 2:30pm 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  4. Storm behaved as expected. Very similar to the 12/7-12/8 event. Any accumulating snow left to those areas above 2000ft (aka where few people live). Rapid drying took place as dry slot formed in NE PA and move NW. Sunday happens too far east of the Cape. Maybe throws some snow showers back at the coast? Other that that, just not happening from that event. ECWMF hints at something next Wednesday but it breaks down SE ridging too fast, which it has done way too fast all fall and into early winter. Even with that breakdown and the ~.6-.7 it produces in Boston it still keeps temps in the mid to upper 40’s during the event.

  5. vacation astarts at 11am today 🙂
    Today: rain with sleet and snow possibly mixing in. no accumulation
    tonight partly cloudy with lows in the low 20s
    saturday sunny highs below freezing in the upper 20s and low 30s
    saturday night partly cloudy lows in the mid 10s
    christmas day mostly sunny highs in the upper 30s
    sunday night cloudy a chance of some snow showers or flurries highs in the upper 20s
    monday sunny highs in the low 40s and upper 30s
    monday night partly cloudy lows in the mid 20s
    tuesday cloudy highs in the low 40s
    tuesday night cloudy lows in the upper 20s
    wednesday and thursday mostly sunny highs in the mid to upper 30s lows in the mid 20s. We will have the cold this weekend but with no storms. we will have a small warm up early part of the week with colder temps at the end of the week but no storms. 🙁 It will be a dry but near normal temperatures for the week ahead.

  7. Thanks TK. Looks like my prediction of wintry precipitation this month maybe in jeopardy. I don’t see anything snow for the final week of 2012 and I hope I am wrong.

  8. I saw NWS hints at potential nor’easter for mid week but JMA said above temps are just too warm once again. This Time i will be up in central Maine and maybe something can happen up there if a storm comes to fruition.

  10. Sorry for the typo meant to say rest of 2011 not 2012.
    Hadi hopefully that clipper system will give us some snow but the midweek Potential lack of cold air so can’t get really excited.

  11. Well, not a flake here. So much for my 2-3 inch call a couple days ago. Man this winter is pretty rough for snow lovers. Looking at the extended, O.S. might be jet skiing rather than skating on Jamaica Pond on my prediction date of Jan. 13. Who’s got the latest date? Would love to know Vicki if you post today.

    Have a great Christmas for you who celebrate if I don’t post in the meantime. Lot’s of driving around for me over the next few days except for Christmas itself.

    Looks like the next couple nights are going to be nice and cold. Snowmaking here!!

    1. John 12/15/2011
      Scott 12/20/2011
      Coastal 12/23/2011
      Mark 12/27/2011
      JimmyJames 1/2/2012
      Philip 1/6/2012
      Hadi 1/7/2012
      Rainshine 1/18/2012
      Old Salty 1/20/2012
      Longshot 1/25/2012
      Vicki 1/29/2012
      Tom 1/5/2013
      Retrac 1/13/2013

      1. There are two dates for 2013 and I seem to have latest for this season

        We had snow flurries a few minutes ago but it’s back to rain with a few flakes mixed in. My son in law has a 20 x 20 (I think) skating rink full of water in the back yard. It keeps icing over and then melting.

  17. I know JMA spoke that the EURO seems to breakdown the SE ridge too fast, but somewhat of an intersting write from the NWS this morning…

    OVERVIEW…
    ENS FCST FOR THE AO/NAO REMAIN POSITIVE…SO SUBJECTIVELY WANT TO
    CONTINUE H5 RIDGING ALONG THE ERN CONUS /MILD PATTERN/. MDL SOLNS
    EXHIBITING A BREAKDOWN OF THE SWRN CONUS TROF AND HIGH PRES OVER THE
    BAHAMAS…GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
    WEEK. YET LA NINA/S INFLUENCE IS APPARENT IN THE GLOBAL PATTERN WITH
    TROUGHING OVER THE N PACIFIC AND EURASIA. NEVERTHELESS…WITH THE
    EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF H5 RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WOULD PROMOTE
    FURTHER TROUGHING THRU NEW ENGLAND. LEANED MORESO WITH THE 0Z ECMWF
    SOLN FOR THE EXTENDED AS IT HAS TRENDED WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE
    GFS. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY…BUT SHOULD RIDGING BREAKDOWN AS
    ANTICIPATED…WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NERN
    CONUS.

  18. Coastal what time period are you talking about for QPF? The image you posted is a loop so trying to see what you are talking about.

    1. Not impossible but also not unusual in the current pattern. After a while, anomalies are no longer so anomalous when you’re in a longer-term stubborn pattern, and this La Nina is just that, as stubborn as the El Nino of 1982.

      We’ve seen this kind of thing.

  20. A heavy dusting in Pelham, NH right now. When it comes down heavy it snows when it comes down light it mixes, for obvious reasons. Don’t think it will make it to Christmas the ground is too warm as well as the air this afternoon.

  21. Coastal I see what you are talking about, looks like a little precip. TK and JMA talked about this last night with the snow showers penetrating further inland which the NAM is showing at that time frame.

      1. At least parts of the coast. And maybe a band or 2 of some actual accumulation. We have to watch for a kink in the wind flow that’s been evident on some short range guidance that may bend the bands and fire them inland, even north of Boston. It’s a bit of longshot, but it will try to stay coastal. Sorry had to get a couple usernames in… 😉

        1. LOL!
          We need to get Hadi’s kid some snow and I need reason to stay clear of my wife, cleaning off snow (no matter how much) usually does the trick!

  22. TK – thanks for the update. And thanks for your reply in your previous blog regarding Bermuda highs, that they can happen at any time of year.

    I got up a little later than usual this morning, so I didn’t notice any snow around in Sudbury – perhaps there is a flake falling here and there right now – but any precip. is very light.

    I will probably be on the blog at some point in the next few days, but I just want to say for everyone – whatever holiday you celebrate, Have a great Holiday!

  23. I’m feeling pretty confident on a snowless dec, I really feel like we will be entering the new year with a snowless winter

  24. My UGH meter just shattered!! Not even a flake!

    Maybe the Ocean effect snows discussed by TK will accumulate MORE
    than expected. Yeah, fat chance of that!

    The Euro and GFS hint of something around the 27th or 28th, although initial
    indications are it would be too warm. Perhaps that will change with future runs?

    Just not looking good and neither is the NAO:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

    This is terrible. It is 12/23 and I still put on my light weight jacket in the morning. LOL

  25. The cold pattern that was expected by the euro for the beginning of jan is freaking moderating, it’s unbelievable, now it showing a seasonable to slightly above seasonable for the beginning of 2012

    1. What else is new? I just wonder if the whole Winter will be like that?????
      Right now, doubting it will ever change. lol

  26. UGH some more!!! Now 12Z NAM depicts HIGH in such a postion as to ELIMINATE
    even the Ocena effect possibility! Now showing ZERO precip for it.

  27. From NWS at Taunton this morning concerning mid-week:

    TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND…
    BROAD TROF APPARENT ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TUE NGT INTO WED…YET
    SPECIFICS CONCERNING EVOLUTION AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS ARE FAIRLY
    UNCERTAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY FOR SNOW POTENTIAL.
    CANADIAN SOLN LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ECMWF/GFS SOLNS. AM
    INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLNS WITH THE
    BREAKDOWN OF THE H5 HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. THAT BEING THE CASE…
    WE COULD SEE A PSBL NOR/EASTER SETUP FOR THE MIDWEEK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WX. MAY SEE A WEEKEND CLIPPER LOW THRU THE GRT LKS REGION.

  28. Despite my love for cold & snow, I’m not finding myself frustrated with this pattern, but more fascinated from a meteorological perspective. I know not every year is going to be cold and snowy. I wouldn’t want that anyway. I like variety. I like how it can do what it did last year, then do what it’s doing now, knowing next year could be again nearly the complete opposite.

    In fact the ONLY frustrating thing to me so far is that the early part of my winter forecast was so wrong that it is probably the worst long range forecast I have made in a quarter century.

    1. Tk, Thanks. I hear you.

      So when do you think there will actually be a REGIME change?

      Looks like the beginning of next month at the earliest and could be later?

      Have a good one.

      1. La Nina has decided she’s the boss right now. Unless we see sudden stratospheric warming, and there have been only slight hints of that coming soon, I’m not not sure when we break out of the overall regime we’re in. There continue to be smaller pattern changes within the larger regime, but none of them have done a great deal to change the persistent overall mildness.

        1. Many thanks. So, same ole, same ole for now.
          Well, at least there is the Bruins tonight and the Pats
          tomorrow. And then there is Christmas.

          That’ll get us to next’s week. lol

          1. I am having a blast this season, even with the mild snowless pattern. I have my family, my health, my music, and just my love of this time of year. My only wish is that it would not be rainy and warm on Christmas Eve. It won’t be. All is good. We’ll get some winter weather this season, for sure. We will see what nature has in store for us for the rest of Winter 2011-2012, and then after the next warm season we’ll watch the NW horizon for the first signs of the winter chill sometime next autumn.

          2. TK – I have been feeling the same way – much to the surprise of everyone who knows me. Actually, much to my surprise too. I’m just enjoying all of the preparations and family fun and even sitting on the deck last night while my husband cooked burgers on the grill. I was looking forward to a storm while we are staying at the beach next month but nice walks will also work too.

    2. I would have to agree tk, although I am a snow lover, I do believe this is the winter that really never comes, and this is my gut only but I believe we gave an early spring.

  29. OS I am heading up to Maine next week so maybe I can get something up there and send it down to you in JP!!!

    1. That would be nice.

      There sure looks like something is brewing for mid-week.
      Look at this 500MB chart from the 12Z NAM at 84 hours, which would be
      for 7PM Monday night. Something should get cranking from this. The question would be the track and how much if any cold air would be left in place
      around these parts when it arrives:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F23%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Any thoughts on this? Anyone?

  30. I see that OS, but as JMA pointed above he does not think enough cold air exists. The euro has a coastal hugger thus the temps.

    1. Hadi,

      That is a given and understood, HOWEVER, if the storm tracks correctly and has the dynamics one might imagine with that 500MB, then I believe that
      it would be “just” Cold enough to produce snow out of it. Of course if it’s
      a hugger, or inside runner, NOT A CHANCE. I just point it out as something
      to watch AND BE DISSAPPOINTED ONCE AGAIN!!!

        1. His line of thinking is correct for next week.

          In terms of the February thing? Reaching… Maybe trying to attain hero status if such a thing happens. 😉 But it is a bold prediction somewhat (according to him) based on research, so we’ll see.

    1. I know. Amazing that a Professional Met could even utter those words!!
      PURE FANTASY!!!! LOL

      Would be nice though. He even quoted ACCUMULATIONS!!!! lol

        1. Sure,

          I understood about next week. No problem there.
          I was joking about his mid-February prediction.
          it may be based on research, but that one is out there.

          Wouldn’t it be something if he were correct?

  34. TK, you think? You’re giving him too much credit in that he would have a 50% chance
    of getting that mid-Feburary prediction correct.

  35. Of course when i was a junior and i had to make all the snow days up last year we got a whole bunch load of snow days last winter. Now since i am a senior we are not getting anything. i think we will be lucky to get 3. yes i got 2 days off durring the october storm but it was a state of emergency so schools do not make it up not to mention it was only 2 inches of snow. i think no storms untill after new years day and even then i bet january will average around 40 degrees with some messy storms but more rain storms than anything else , i just do not see cold air staying in the area with storms, as storms will be pushing the cold out before they come. We have seen the temps for snow but its always to warm when the precipitation falls this year so far. I hope it changes. but it does not look good
    I am now thinking we will have above normal temps with below normal snow fall. 20 to 30 inches maybe this year NOT COOL.
    I want the snow though march for the back yard and also for skiing but then get really warm in may

      1. yes coastal i am going to college i already got 2 scholorships. to public schools. and Charlie i live in Billerica mass.

          1. one of the possibilities. meteorology ,atmospheric studies,enviomental sciences, ecology, marine biology, coral reef studies, marine mammals, oceanography. and music All possibilities as of right now As you can see I am someone that wants to do something with the envioment. I have applied to Middlesex, Umass Lowell, Northeastern, salem state, I want to apply to BU and a few others any suggestions on schools with good Meteorology courses.

          1. One of the last times we had this pattern, WITH October snow, Boston’s total for the season came in at under 20 inches. 😉

    1. Still a ways off and something to watch. All is not lost at this point, but given
      our track record this season so far, I would BET on it being TOO WARM!!!

      See what the 12Z EURO and CANADIAN have to say on this one. Probably too warm as well.

      YAWN….until then

    1. You have to ZOOM out on that map and look NORTH of the Canadian
      border to find any real cold at all.

      Enjoy the “mild” weather, even if less mild than the last few days.

  39. Guys whats going on with my ocean effect for tomorrow. We really need to get out priorities straight. 🙂

    OS, do you have a link to wind direction over the weekend?

    1. Coastal,

      I can’t get the link to work correctly on the winds, but IF you go to the
      Weather Underground site and click on today 12Z ECMWF model
      and select winds. Look at tomorrows winds. They stay straight from the
      NORTH. We would need a little buckle to the NNE to bring Ocean Effect
      snow in, unless there were other factors going on.

      This will get you to the map. Click on L to advance it 3 hours and J to go back 3 hours and you will readily see the winds. I really nice map!

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=7&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=WIND&mm.hour=24&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=1&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0

  40. Just read Henry’s post. I love his bold prediction for February because its the same as The Farmers’ ALmanac which calls for a heavy wet snow Mid Atlantic to New England with 12 plus inches of snow between the 20th-23rd of the month.

  41. 12Z Euro and 12Z Canadian both have an INSIDE RUNNER for Wednesday AM.
    At this point not looking good for next week! BA HumBug!

  42. You know we had this coming…
    Snowfall was ABOVE normal in December 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010.

    2. How True. We had it coming. Question is: How will the rest of the Winter
      Season be? More of the same? OR big changes? Time will tell.

      We really shouldn’t complain. It saves big time on heating bills.

  44. I don’t get it…why does Henry Margusity get a pass for putting #’s on a storm a month and a half away (mid-February) but when our own local mets do it 3+ days away we trash him/her for it?

    Having said that, I do believe late January/early February for the pattern change, if it happens at all before winter ends. That SE ridge is soooo stubborn to leave to say the least.

  45. Henry gets a pass because he is basically an internet blogger and his audience is a bunch of weather nuts like us who are continually looking to the next big thing….Also because he is kind of like that crazy uncle that everybody just kind of gives a polite wave to, along with an uncomfortable laugh…

    I do agree with TK. I think this pattern is incredibly fascinating and I think the variety and the knowledge we gain from it has more long term benefits than another series of typical December nor’easters. I used the 7th-8th storm and the knowledge gained from that to shape my forecasts for last night.

        1. That’s what I’m talking about! I’m very excited for you Scott, you’re going to do great things. I am available for any college parties!

          I was there three years to meet with schools campus facility manager. The school was interested in install new outdoor field lighting. What a beautiful place!

    2. NICE!!! CONGRATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    6. where exactly is that college located? I did not see it come up on my list when i typed up meteorology on collegeboard.com

        1. He’ll have some interesting weather to follow up there, especially in the winter. When all else fails for us snow lovers… go north!

  48. The Boston Buoy has not been reporting water temps Is it undergoing repair or something?

    Just curious more than anything else…temps are likely in the 46-50 range probably not going down much anytime soon anyway. My bet temps get no lower than 40.

  50. Yesterday’s +18F anomoly at Logan brought the monthly departure back up to +6.2F for the month. In terms of acheiving a record, one cold day tomorrow and then somewhere in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, starting to see signs of another mild system. I figure by Christmas Night, that midweek system should be progged to track towards the eastern Great Lakes and another 55F to 60F surge of warmth arrives. I wonder what the record is to beat………….

  51. congrats scott on getting accepted to Lyndon State

    Also Wednesday storm looks to far south of us to give us anything . New years eve a clipper system could give some light snow showers .i think the closest possible time a large storm could effect us is after new years around the 3 or 4th of january.

  52. I just noticed that NWS is becoming cautiously bullish on snow potential for next Tuesday-Wednesday! Still hard to believe that SE ridge is actually going to break down a bit.

      1. Tom, the info from the NWS is updated as of 3:18 pm on its webpage…unless it is totally in error. However, based on what TK’s thoughts on midweek, any snow will not come to pass. I just looked at the local stations extended forecasts and it rains with temps in the 40s for midweek instead.

  53. Looking over the latest – gotta run out so will update fully later. Here’s what I think we have to look forward to (or not)…

    Downplaying ocean effect event for Saturday, though still possible. Cold though! 20 in the morning, 32 in the afternoon, falling the teens for Santa’s visit except low 20s coast.

    Potent shortwave brings snow showers Sunday afternoon & night (faster timing likely).

    Storm blows up offshore Monday, too far out to do anything.

    Warm-up Tuesday, but brief, front brings rain showers at night that may end as snow showers.

    Quiet midweek.

    Snow showers likely Friday with cold air and another potent shortwave. Keep an eye on this one just in case, because it has a chance of igniting a rapid-hitting coastal storm, though I’d lean away from this initially.

  54. Scott…again, Congratulations on your acceptance! I certainly hope that you continue to post here occasionally while in school in between studying and classes. 🙂

  55. Hey Tom…you are correct, that was an old NWS forecast. I don’t know why they highlighted it as if it was a “changed” discussion. The update as of 5:16 pm is for rain midweek with a change to snow well to the N&W.

    I stand corrected. 🙂

    For now, I will ignore any long range discussions from NWS and local mets for snow events until mid-January at the earliest…with the exception of TK’s of course.

      1. Some of the assists were purposely carromed off the backboards so the puck would bounce off and come to the front of the net.

  58. Scott, congratulations! Wonderful! Great location. Just think, you won’t have to worry about lack of snow. Even in years like this one, Northern Vermont will get snow. In fact, Northern New Hampshire and Maine have received between 3 and 7 inches out of this latest storm, and are expecting a series of days with snow showers. Sometimes snow showers in the mountains can accumulate, and I expect they will where the clouds have trouble dissipating.

    Perusing the models and various forecasts I’m more optimistic about winter getting an actual (albeit late) start soon. The cold and snow-cover are getting closer to New England. A clipper system or two will likely be the spark that ignites our winter. It’s going to happen soon. This does not mean anything like last year. But, I would not rule out a counter-attack, once the SE ridge breaks down.

    1. Yes, also the proximity to great ski areas like which Burke mountain is a 20 minute drive, and it’s pure powder(not sure about this winter).
      It’s the perfect place for a snow lover.

      And I agree with you about a more winter like pattern arriving shortly.

      I believe the rapidly weakening PV and stratospheric warming is going to give the models a lot of trouble over the next week.

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