Tuesday AM Update

69 Comments

7:27AM

Just a quick forecast update – no big changes to the discussion from Sunday evening. Full update this evening.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, lower 80s elsewhere. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 70s south Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63.  High 85.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday AM Update”

  2. Thank you TK – maybe we can actually get the grub stuff down on Wednesday night for the rain on Thursday. John….can we do grub stuff and fertilizer at the same time? Thank you!!

    2. Also, make sure the fertilizer is a straight fertilizer without any other control products.

  3. Thanks TK.
    Looking more like a heavy rain threat with these POTENTIAL thunderstorms rather than a severe weather threat. I would not rule out a few non severe storms across the region.

    1. Thanks JJ. Do you think the potential thunderstorms will be widespread or more isolated in nature? Trying to figure out if I should water my lawn today since its the only day this week my town allows for my side of the street.

      1. Hey AceMater… Welcome back and I hope you are feeling better.
        The front is coming through slow so I think most of tomorrow is dry for you in eastern MA. The showers and
        thunderstorms look to come into tomorrow night into Thursday. As I said earlier heavy rainfall will be the big
        ticket item with these storms rather than a severe threat. I do feel the entire region will get wet at some point in
        the Wednesday Thursday tiem period.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Just not impressed with parameters for Wednesday/Thursday. Models have
    been all over the place and I still don’t think they have a handle on it.

    I don’t see any severe threat at all. Will we get wet? I didn’t think so previously, but
    now? Maybe. We shall see.

    Last night Eric indicated that we could have some very heavy downpours on Thursday.

    Plenty of precipitable water in the atmosphere, but will it get cranked out???

    Here’s the latest CMC precipitable water from the 06Z run:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PW&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PW&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036

    Note that is 50MM or 1.97 inches

    Here is the meteogram with predicated ACTUAL precipitation:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemreg&run=06&var=conv&lang=en&map=us

    Interesting that this run shows ZERO actual precipitation.

    Here is the 0Z run:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?lang=en&map=us&stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&var=conv

    This one shows “about” 5 mm of actual precip or 0.2 inch or so.

  6. Thanks TK! And I also neglected to welcome Ace back. I saw some of the pics from your wedding on facebook and it looked beautiful. Here’s to many years of happiness!

    1. Thanks Sue! We just got all the official pics in from the photographer and some of those will be going up soon too

    1. So far. Someone gets another round in the afternoon but it may be something that forms and then moves to the south or southwest and we dry out from the NE. Have to figure out the details on that one.

  10. 12Z NAM LIFTED INDEX for THURSDAY

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=nam&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=LI&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=054

    ENERGY HELICITY INDEX FOR THURSDAY

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Hmm, I want to see the 12Z CMC run on this and then the Euro. Thursday may have just Sprung up to be a “possible” SEVERE weather day. Will see what other runs show.

  11. Old Salty the bullseye is right over you with the helicity values on Thursday.
    Just like the winter want to see if this is the start of a trend and if other model are close to what this solution is showing or has this model run just gone bonkers.

  12. SPC does have there 5% which is the general thunderstorm risk areas north and west of Boston for tomorrow.
    There is nothing being shown for the region on Thursday but that certainly could change.

  15. The bullseye with the CAPE and Lift right in and around the Boston area. Still good CAPE and Lift across the rest of SNE but the GFS and NAM 12z runs seem to have the most CAPE and Lift right around the Boston area.
    Be interested to see the 12z runs of Canadian and EURO. If these model trends continue SPC in my mind will be issuing a general thunderstorm outlook or maybe even a slight risk.

    1. The CMC is not totally ready, however, the summer meteogram is
      and shows virtually NOTHING for Wednesday/Thursday. I don’t get
      this disparity. The CMC hints a fireworks (pun intended) on the 7/3 and 7/4.

      We shall see.

      1. There seems to be a discrepancy between the meteogram
        data and the Cape and lifted Index maps on the CMC.

        Will go with the maps. Some instability for Wednesday, but
        not much on Thursday as opposed to the GFS and NAM.

        Oh well.

      2. Of course it will on the. 3rd or 4 the because everybody really needs it to be nice out as that is the biggest weekend all summer.

        1. Actually John, it looks to be more like the 2nd.
          As I stated, there was a discrepancy between the
          Meteogram and the Actual maps.

          That’s a long way out. We’ll monitor as it is likely to
          change. I wouldn’t worry at this point.

          😀

  16. A split decision for Thursday thunderstorm potential.
    American models (NAM GFS) trying to cook up some thunderstorm development
    Non American models (CMC EURO) saying not so fast

  17. This is the fun part waiting to see which models blink first. One thing looks certain humidity is going to be on the increase and will be felt tomorrow and Thursday.

    1. YUP!

      You would think that the American Models WOULD KNOW what is going
      on in AMERICA? Wouldn’t you. 😆 😆

      NOT necessarily. 😀

  18. I believe most of the showers come through late Wed night early thu am limiting severe weather.

  20. Will see this time if there is a little redemption for the American Models. It was a week ago when they had impressive CAPE and Lift and what looked to be a good severe weather outbreak that thankfully never materialized.

      1. From NWS at Taunton re: Thursday

        A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
        GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP…BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL WIND FIELDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

  21. Sudbury river that was high on its banks a couple of weeks ago has several feet of mud flats on each side.

  22. I heard on CNN today that if Massachusetts doesn’t gain at least 230,000 residents it will lose another house seat in 2020, it appears that this time we should be ok, but if something happens and the state somehow only gains 125,000 then the state will likely lose another house seat, analyst have Massachusetts house seats down to 5 or 6 by 2050. I hope not. Good day all 🙂

    1. I’m not sure yet. Working on that. But we may get through a large portion of the day with little or no rain around.

        1. That’s ok. I was planning to take dinner to Mac and eat on deck at rehab with him tomorrow night so am very interested in Wednesday

          1. Hope that works out great for you.

            I “think” you “may” be spared rain, but you never know. It just looks like for tomorrow, most activity is to the North and West. I hope it is OK for you.

            1. from NWS:

              ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR CIRCULATES SOUTH
              TO NORTH IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION WED WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH…ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
              MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER AS STORMS EXIT NY STATE THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
              ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

              1. Again, it’s New England so we can never be sure, but it “looks” OK at the moment. Always subject to change. Best of luck tomorrow.

    1. Oh my. Today was a great day. We used to let them out so far it took lots of people to pull them in. There was a man on isle of palms SC years ago who flew a string of about 20 or so kites. Stunt kites are fun but simple kites are relaxing. Please post pics of your kite 🙂

      1. Haha, I have yet to get a kite! Or to have the opportunity to fly one. When I do in fact obtain one and get the chance, it will probably be with TK, and yes I will post pictures. 😀

        1. I was going to say TK would be a perfect choice but somehow knew he’d be in the adventure. Please remind him he is not Ben Franklin. 😉

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