Storm Update / Holiday Weekend Forecast

366 Comments

9:03AM

STORM…
Most of the analysis on this was done on the previous entry and it is not necessary to repeat it here. The only real change that was not apparent yesterday is a little more mid-storm warm air intrusion aloft as the center likely comes several miles closer to the coast than the consensus track had previously. Tiny difference in track, bigger difference in what falls from the sky. This means that we still see rain with higher elevation mix/snow to start but the rain/snow line also will have sleet involved in it and will oscillate a little more between the I-495 and I-95 belts before finally heading coast-ward as the storm departs. It all gets out of here from south to north tonight.

Accumulation break-down: You know the timing, here are the amounts expected.
6+ inches snow confined to higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA westward, 3-6 inches elsewhere mainly west of I-495 with some of this possibly cut down by sleet, and under 3 inches most areas east of I-495 including northwestern RI and southeastern NH where the most flip-flopping will take place. Expecting mainly rain from Cape Ann to Boston on the immediate coast and across most of southeastern MA including Cape Cod, and eastern and southern RI. These areas may see brief mix/snow at the end of the storm with no accumulation. KEEP IN MIND: The phrase “under 3 inches” does not mean “3 inches”. It means less than 3. When seeing anything with numbers, don’t focus on just the number, but the description with it, and if you see a range, don’t focus on just the top number, but keep the range in mind.

THANKSGIVING / WEEKEND…
Weak disturbance brings clouds and a few snow showers along with blustery winds for the holiday on Thursday. Other than brief lower visibility in a few snow showers, not expecting any travel troubles. But please watch for icy untreated surfaces especially in the morning! The rest of the holiday weekend goes this way: Cold Friday with some coastal snow showers from NH into eastern MA due to a disturbance, sun to clouds Saturday and clouds to sun Sunday as we undergo a warming trend.

EARLY NEXT WEEK…
Cold front passes Monday, no big deal. High pressure builds in Tuesday with a bit of a chill but nothing too significant.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain southeastern areas, snow northwestern higher elevations, and a combination of rain/sleet/snow in between. SEE ABOVE for accumulations. Temperatures fall to the lower 30s well northwest of Boston, middle to upper 30s most areas, some lower 40s hanging on in coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast.
TONIGHT: Precipitation ends south to north as the rain/mix/snow line finally heads east. Lows upper 20s interior higher elevations, lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun possible. Scattered snow showers but no accumulation other than a potential brief dusting in a few locations. Highs upper 30s to around 40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers mainly eastern NH and coastal MA overnight.
Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers possible mainly eastern MA through midday with minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 15. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clouds to run. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 40.

366 thoughts on “Storm Update / Holiday Weekend Forecast”

  2. Thanks for the update. What a freakin Bummer of a day.

    OH well, it won’t be the last for sure.

    AND as a reminder, it is NOT even WINTER yet. 😀

  5. One of my friends just got an email from the town of Reading warning of 6 inches of snow coming today and tonight…

    The only Reading that is going to see 6 inches of snow today/tonight is in Pennsylvania. 😛

  7. Thanks TK.
    Temperature dropped where I am in CT to 34. Its snowing but roadways are wet. Do have a coating on the grass and trees and cars are getting coated. Thankfully there are no leaves on the trees here otherwise I would be concerned with the heavy wet snow that is expected here with losing power. For a small state where going to have all types of precipitation where some areas could get an inch or more of rain other areas in elevation northwest CT could have 6 plus inches of snow.

  9. I’ve noticed many Mets are not backing down with the snow totals even with all this information. What gives?

      1. JR was sticking to it this morning and his on air forecast pretty much mirrored TKs – no wait – that was Pete. I forgot he was on this am.

    1. Cold air coming in faster than modeled down there. DT had to up his amounts for some of those areas. He has been pretty good with these late Autumn events this season.

  11. TK’s comment on where the cold front sits – Lake Superior – is vital information. That’s not where the front is supposed to be for it to snow here at the coast. That’s the current problem.

    1. I saw one of the non-met FB pages last night try to claim that the energy on the West Coast YESTERDAY was going to be entering the storm on the East Coast TODAY, energizing it and therefore resulting in higher snow totals than all the meteorologists had.

      YUP………….

        1. They have this overwhelming need to “break news”. They want to be the ones to call it first, to deliver the big news, and usually it’s heavily influenced by what they WANT to happen. So here uninformed fiction becomes some kind of reality to them. Social media makes it so easy. I used to just doodle it in my notebooks…

  12. Boston 44, wind NORTH at 9
    Blue Hill 39, Wind North at 10
    Worceter 39, North at 7

    Hmm Same temp at Blue Hill as at Worcester????

      1. Retrac,

        Take a look at the latest HRRR http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
        700MB Charts. Warm intrusion not as extensive as previous
        runs. It’s still there, but does NOT extend as far North or West.

        You “may” just be in business for a DUMPING.

  13. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    Here we go… Hi terrain of Worcester County continues to change over to snow.

  14. Interesting….
    Latest HRRR seems to be backing OFF a bit on the intrusion of the 700MB warming.
    Something to continue monitoring.

    1. Don’t see any need to change too much. I had a warm bias anyway so we’ll go with it for now, 1 or 2 here, 2 or 3 there. Lean toward the low side.

  16. Roads starting to get a little bit of a coating where I am. We didn’t not start as rain as forecasted and its been back and forth between light snow and moderate snow for two hours now.

  17. HRRR 700Mb temperature for RETRAC

    2PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112613/full/temp_700_f06.png

    4PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112613/full/temp_700_f08.png

    6Pm

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112613/full/temp_700_f10.png

    8PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112613/full/temp_700_f12.png

    AHHH Maybe it was wishful thinging on my part OR the timing changed a bit

    I’ll keep monitoring.

  19. INTERESTING

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 16s16 seconds ago
    RT @mattseelig07: @ericfisher @MattNoyesNECN @NWSBoston rain with wet flakes mixing in lynnfield ma

    IF that’s the case, should be seeing flakes in WOBURN, no?

          1. LOL

            I know where you live. 😛

            Actually I don’t, but I have an idea because of this grate you mention from time to time. 🙂

  20. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 54s55 seconds ago
    RT @Jmacsix: @MattNoyesNECN @scootermsp snowing heavily in West Brookfield Ma at 10am

      1. It can do a great job. But it can equally suck eggs. When it’s spot on that’s great, but how can you tell when that’s gonna happen? Too much uncertainty!

        If they can lower the volatility and scope of error, then I’ll be a bigger fan.

  24. Jeremy Reiner retweeted
    Anthony Mitchell ‏@anthomitchell 8m8 minutes ago
    @pbouchardon7 @jreineron7 in Fitchburg big flakes and has dropped to 35 degrees

    1. Oh but we did – well depending on how old you want to make those days. We had a whole weather spotter network set up on Ch 7 by Todd Gross. I still have the database that I kept for him. I actually think the snow line may still be active at WHDH.

  27. The mixing was all reported along a line that showed a moderate-strength banding signature on radar. Enhanced precipitation at mid levels dragging down just enough cold to mix it or briefly change it in some spots. Taunton radar showed this nicely.

  28. I’m in Lunenburg, MA. The temperature is 36. Gloppy flakes started at 10:00. Currently, the snow looks a bit more serious. There is some staying on the top of my truck and on the grass.

    It started when I was in the grocery getting a few last-minute items for tomorrow. Wow – double whammy – Thanksgiving and PRE_STORM PANIC!

  29. Surface low is going to track right over Nantucket. Euro will win the battle of the models regarding its forecast more than 48 hours out.

    Mid level low center is going to track over WESTERN MA. That is not favorable for a whole lot of snow in eastern MA.

  30. Harvey Leonard retweeted
    tom corliss ‏@Corliss3T 3m3 minutes ago
    Mixed precip with wet snowflakes on my drive from stoneham to Winchester @HarveyWCVB @Met_CindyFitz

  31. Thank you, TK, for the great analysis and update. I hope everyone is safe during his/her travels. JJ, it seems your area may already be starting with problems.

    Just rain here. Fairly steady since about 8:00 am

  33. Hi Vicki…. Its been snowing now since about 7:45 this morning. It is starting to stick to some of the side streets where I am where before it was just the grassy surfaces, the cars, and the roofs. North of me here in Litchfield County there thinking close to 10 inches down here in the southern part of the county where I live closer to 6. Hopefully there won’t be power issues since this is a wet snow.

  34. Ok, I’m about out of music here in the “office” … a.k.a. my 2nd floor den with 5 windows that face every direction except east (have to go into the kitchen for a view east lol).

    What music you ask? Jethro Tull, boxed set. Very appropriate for a darkening day in late Autumn.

    My agenda now takes me mobile to local bakery, a doc appointment for Mom, and then a ride up to Lowell. After briefly home this evening I’ll be up to WeatherWiz’s hill at my friend’s house for a few hours tonight. I’ll be checking in mobile through the day.

    If some of you are departing early, let me wish you a Happy Thanksgiving!

  35. 37 and rain here in Walpole. Looking at the northeast radar, it looks like the r/s line has collapsed down to NYC but the ground obs have it raining.

  36. The nam yesterday was painting a slew tstorm just inland from the coast, it’s raining and sleeting moderately here in Franklin the past hour, the funny thing is it’s not trying to change to snow any further, nam could be right on

  37. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 2m2 minutes ago
    Taunton, MA: Rain with some sleet mixing in and a few very wet snowflakes #wcvb

    2. Makes sense. Just saw on radar route 146 was the battle ground between rain and snow, now that line has pushed to 495

  39. Harvey Leonard retweeted
    Tara Craig ‏@plainoldtara 4m4 minutes ago
    @HarveyWCVB @WCVB flakes are starting to fall in Milford!

  40. If we are to see “anything” at all before the tail end of this, it had better
    happen quickly as that 700MB warm layer is due by about 2PM.

    1. The way the r/s line has been progressing quickly, now at 495, i could see rain changing to snow in and around the I95 areas in about an hour or so. This was the rain to snow then back to rain scenario we were talking about last night

      1. Keep looking out the Window. Saw a report of flakes in Taunton, which means it should be mixing where you are, if not now, any moment.

        1. Reports of sleet all around me so i wouldnt be shocked. Unfortunately, when the intensity goes back down, it will be rain again

  41. Well it has changed back to rain here in Franklin, so weird it was straight sleet for 15 min’s, it actually began to make me a littl nervous

  43. TK, im not seeing a major warm-up next week. I’m seeing temps seasonal but nothing too much above or below normal. Will it be delayed into the second week of Dec?

    1. It will go above normal most of next week and the week after. Surface temps may not sky rocket because of position of surface high pressure more north than south, but upper flow and major Pacific intrusion spell milder than normal.

  46. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 3m3 minutes ago
    MA: RT @MisterMacTwo: @MattNoyesNECN snow is starting to mix in, we are in Wrentham

    1. I’ll attest to that, we do now have some flakes mixing in Wrentham. Earlier than I thought honestly, but I don’t think it’s ever going to stay snow here. Mainly a rain/sleet event.

  47. Rain mixed with ice pellets and a few wet snowflakes here in Marshfield. Lovely bus duty weather, had to be today …..

    Maybe the “coldest” part of the storm for eastern CT up through Worcester County and into the Merrimack Valley from now til 2 pm …. then the column probably will be under attack at mid levels …..

      2. Tk I hope will chime in, but I think it is due to the
        Strong FLOW from the SW transporting the warmth
        from the Gulf/SE states. AND it is uninhibited, because there
        is no serious cold in place, not big High to bump up against
        and the like. Plus the low is NOT bombing out.

  48. Down another degree to 36. No mixing here yet, but if its mixing just down the road in Wrentham, im sure it will be here soon too

    1. Can’t go by that pice of SHIT display. That things is NEVER NEVER NEVER
      EVER correct! Did I say NEVER because I mean NEVER

  50. It’s raining quite hard here in Roxbury. Visibility looks suspiciously like there
    is “something” mixed in. Vis really low for just plain rain. Will continue to watch.

    11AM obs

    Boston 40 Wind North 14 gusts to 20
    Blue Hill 36 (I’ll bet it’s flaking there)
    Worcester 32 with Moderate SNOW

    1. OS when I was out this am it was almost as if something was mixed in. Big splats of rain that wasn’t quite all rain

  52. Matt says snow mixing in at Woburn. TK? yes?

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 6s7 seconds ago
    RT @delong95: @MattNoyesNECN down to 37 here in Woburn. Rain with snow mixer in

  54. Snow sticking to untreated pavement in Holden. Maybe a 1/4″ accumulating on top of cars. We have started treating the roads about an hour ago.

  55. Eric Fisher retweeted
    Kurt ‏@iseedeadbugs495 3m3 minutes ago
    @ericfisher starting to mix with big fat wet snow in natick!

    Vicki, where’s your report?

  56. Only about 1 mile vis here. That is NOT consistent with the Rain.
    Either we have some light fog, or SOMETHING is mixed in. Difficult to tell
    because I can’t see it landing anywhere very well. I’m going out at lunch.
    I will be able to tell for sure on the windshield. That is the fool proof method.

  59. Snowing at moderate clip again where I am in CT. Been going back and forth between light and moderate snow since 7:45 this morning. The elevation making all the difference in the snow accumulating.

  63. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 6m6 minutes ago
    had an excellent question yesterday about thunder snow. didn’t think the intensification was strong enuf for that. I was WRONG. thundersnow

    Rocklan? Serious?

  64. OK, I can NOW OFFICIALLY report the first SNOW FALKES mixing in here
    in downtown Roxbury. Oh Yeah, no doubt about it!!!

    John LOOK HARDER!

  65. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=box&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

    I think the radar can almost help out see where the column is cold enough, where it isnt and where the dividing line is currently.

    The solid echoes, they almost appear fuzzy …. Snow.

    The splotchy stuff, its not fuzzy, its here and there, rain and sleet.

    Dividing line is just north and west of Boston into northwest RI.

    Heavy precip as a mix of rain and many ice pellets in Marshfield continues … All the way to the beach.

    1. Agreed. Wet snow/sleet coming down where I am pretty good…not sticking. TK, is this expected or is it changing earlier? Curious if amounts will change?

    1. John, Logan’s 38F (up 1 degree since last ob). Dewpoint is 36F and the wind has a very slight component off of the ocean. I think the temp in Boston may rise back to 40F or a bit higher late afternoon or early evening.

      I’d be highly surprised if it snow’s where you are in Boston the next several hrs.

      Wouldnt surprise me if it ends late evening (7-9 pm ?) as a brief bit of snow, but not enough to coat the pavement.

      Thats my thought, anyway.

  83. 16 miles out in Boston harbor at the buoy, the surface wind is 050 and slowly backing.

    I’m very interested to see if the wind continues to back at the buoy ….. will that coastal front make it all the way to Logan ….. If it does, will it continue any distance inland …. and what impact will it have on temps which are currently in the 30s.

  87. All or mostly snow in Wrentham for the past hour or so. Coatings on some surfaces, and getting quite chilly now at 32.5F. We’re overperforming in the snow department I think. With those cold surface temperatures, it makes me think we’re gonna get some serious sleet accumulation this afternoon when that 700mb warmth moves in. Maybe an inch or two of it, which is a lot for sleet.

  89. Nothing unexpected going on. Remember, we review all info for the LATEST. What models said 2 days ago doesn’t matter anymore. This is information as of THIS MORNING.

    It will snow/sleet more in the Boston area now than it will after 3PM. Warm air comes in aloft during the second half of the afternoon into early evening which will be more rain and sleet than anything else across Boston and some areas N & W as well. The heaviest precipitation will fall as rain/sleet.

    Cold enough for snow at the end again, but by then it’s on the way out.

    1. Thanks. Was worried we were getting more where we are…if I wasn’t on the road tomorrow I wouldn’t mind…just don’t want to have to do a big snow cleanup.

  91. Hello all! It has been fun tracking this storm in the past couple days. You know there is a storm when the blog has over 200 comments on November lol. Anyhow, I am in READ ING and its only RAINING!!! not even sleet. I don’t get how towns all around are all reporting snow/sleet while its old boring rain here. The frusturation!!

  92. All white here but slush on roads continues to be thin layer. Unfortunately that thin layer gets icy really fast. Trucks already salted our road and it is a very small side street so they are on top of it in framingham

  93. Mostly rain in Woburn as of 12:50PM. There are some wet flakes mixed in but they look more like fragments of a shredded wet paper towel! Obviously not Bounty. 😉

  96. IF the mid level warmth doesnt come through or comes through later than modeled, i could see some areas in the “rain – slop” zone pick up more than that

    1. On second thought, radar trends to our south seem to be moving the r/s line back north and west. This may have been a very short-lived burst of snow and the last some areas see 🙁

  97. Warm intrusion is going to peak between 5PM and 8PM and push back to at least 495 if not a bit further NW. Should go to rain/sleet all the way out there.

    1. Seeing that in CT as the rain mix line pushing towards the north and west. Will be interesting to see if it changes to sleet or mix where I am. Its been snowing for the entire storm so far where I am.

  98. Logan’s surface wind veers to 030. Temp 39F, dewpoint : 37F.

    Not only to be “attacked” aloft, but also slowly from the ocean in the boundary layer.

  100. About 2 inches of snow so far. Its been going back and forth between light and moderate snow. Its heavy wet snow clinging to the trees.

  102. Plain rain just south of emarald square mall, In my travels all roads r wet, coating on grassy surfaces so far

  104. Snow with sleet again here. 32.2 which is a 10 degree drop from am. Side Roads now white…repair person was just here and said driving slippery.

  108. Sleeting like crazy. Starting to see scattered reports of accidents. Untreated roadways (which is all of them down this way) are becoming slick.

  109. WOW!

    When I got home to JP it was ALL SNOW.
    Ate lunch and took care of a few things, got in the car and it was
    RAIN with a few wet flakes mixed in. ON the way to work a bit of sleet and wet
    snow mixed in. Temp went UP from 36 to 38, so I suspected wind veered more
    to the East. Someone above confirmed that. Still occasional crap mixed in
    but mostly RAIN.

    Close, but no cigar. At least I saw about 1/2 hour worth of SNOW. 😀 😀 😀

  110. Does anyone have the latest snow map from NWS? I saw a small image.
    We’re still in a WWA plus they’re still calling for like 2-4 inches? SAY WHAT?

    Let me see IF I can blow this up

    http://i.imgur.com/1ycE299.jpg

    Are they guys OUT OF THEIR MINDS?
    DO they expect a back end thump?
    What is their logic?????

    1. Now, on their site, the snow map they expect to verify is down …..

      I took a peak at their minimum expected and that seems much more reasonable. 🙂

  112. A freezing rain advisory, for a light amount of ice, has been put up for …. as best as I can tell ……….. in clicking on the advisory …. 1 town/city.

  113. All rain in Plymouth with the occasional pellet of sleet. Certainly not unexpected though. My son just visited Plymouth Rock with a friend and his mom and she sent me a picture and said that the Rock was drowning as were the boys. 🙂

  115. Peeking around at cams …

    Lowell : snowing pretty decently. Roads look a bit greasy, perhaps an inch on the grass

    Worcester : same as Lowell

    Concord, NH : getting dumped on !!!

  121. Some really strong radar echos beginning to rotate in. Wonder what that will do, if anything, other than rain hard. 😀

  125. Retrac that was a mix in northeast CT. Rain mix line continues to push north and west. Would not be surprised if there is a changeover here before it ends as snow this evening.

  128. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1m1 minute ago
    Starting to get more sleet mixing in here in Worcester. Quick live update on #WBZ at 3p.

    1. now it is RAIN again. I think Santa Claus dumped a bit of COLD air
      from the North Pole to give us some “temporary” SNOW.

      😆

      Crazy day.

  132. This has to be the grossest sloppiest most unpleasant to be outside winter storms i can remember. Just miseable!

    1. Looking at radar it looks like Woburn is literally right on the line. Snowing here now…just need the rain line to push a little north.

  134. snow/sleeting at different intervals. snowing when heavy precip. sleet/snow mix when lighter. about a half inch of snow on the ground. Everything is coated. Remember billerica is a hill. my side is protected some what from the east/southern wind. wind right now is more northerly though at the moment… classes were canceled as of 11am lol what a joke!

        1. No not Mr Slims. I’ll ask my SIL. I know Mitsubishi makes one. But it can be used for heat as well. We thought about it for same reason you use your pump. Thanks 🙂

      1. It works fine above 28 degrees. I use it to stay off my oil as much as I can. I usually can’t use it mid-December until early March.

          1. That one really mild winter we had many years ago…I only ran the oil for ONE week the whole winter. It cost me ~$250 to heat my house the whole winter. Good times.

  136. As mentioned above ….. The snow accumulations have been moved north and westward by the NWS.

    At 2:45pm, the highest snow amount reported was 6.8 inches …. and even on this new map, there’s still a big area forecasted to get 10-14, with even a couple of 14-18 amts.

    I disagree. If we could change the 10-14 to 4-7 or 5-8 and the 14-18 to 6-9, maybe a spot 10, I could agree with that. 🙂

    Headed out.

  138. It is snowing HARD right now. Small flakes and blowing. No sign of mixing……yet…..

    Think I escaped that last round of sleet that whipped just south of here.

  141. Sleet hard enough now to hear on windows. Snow mixed in. I hear someone plowing …not sure why. May have an inch

    1. OS About When is this departing? I’m stressing over ice and Being safe for Mac to go outside? But we won’t be leaving until 3:00 tomorrow so I’m hoping it will be 70 and sunny 🙂

  146. I was complaining earlier about no snow in Reading, but it has been snowing now light to mostly moderate snow with close to an inch of snow. Looking at the radar it seems the rain snow like collapsed back to the 95 corridor very close to boston, is it going to collapse further or move west again? I wonder
    Not sure how accurate this radar, I wonder if it is really snowing in boston
    http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/reading-ma/01867/weather-radar/338658

    1. It sucks. I am surprised at how much sleet accumulated down here. Been heavy sleet with a few raindrops mixed in since about 1pm. A good inch of that crap on the ground and the roadways. No sign of any salters/sanders and it is badly needed on the roadways.

      1. Yeah, this one’s a wrap. Looks real pretty outside still. Not sure I’ll get more unless a total surprise happens.

        I’m at 3.5 right now and imagine it’ll sit there.

          1. Yeah, latest map has me under the 10-14. There’s NO WAY that’s gonna happen. I don’t know how I’m gonna get to 5″. So hard to flip back over once it changes like this.

  155. SLEETORAMA!!!!

    Just got home. Roads are a MESS. Sleet accumlating EVERY WHERE.

    34 here. PING PING PING PING

  156. Nothing but rain here at home but driving home like I said there was a good amount of sleet not far from home in Rockland.

  157. Well I guess I have seen it all today … rain, sleet, and snow and then there was the rain-snow mix, the rain-sleet mix, and the snow-sleet mix. The roads have that awful slippery look.

    I wonder what it’s like for drivers on the Mass Pike right now? I thin k last night they said it took 4 hours on the Pike to get from 95 to 84. Anyway I am about to watch the TV mets.

    1. There was a 57 mile backup on pike last night. And roads are slippery according to my SIL who just arrived here. Icy.

  160. Driving from the Chelmsford/Lowell line eastward through Tewksbury and North Andover then southward back to Woburn, awesome transitions from snow to rain to snow to sleet/rain.

  161. Maybe to our destination and it was pretty bad from Portland on. Snowing pretty hard here and about 3-4 inches so far.

  163. Just got back from getting pizza. Total suck fest on the roads. Real bad. Flipping from snow to sleet and back and forth.

    1. Yup, back edge now into SW Connecticut. SHould be just about ending
      in JJ’s neck of the woods. System is FLYING!

    2. Final flakes in Woburn between 1AM and 3AM. That is after it goes back to snow after 11 or 12.

  165. No sooner did I post about Sleetorama, I had to got out to purchase some Salt.
    Hopped in the car, and see it was RAINING. Been just plain RAIN since.
    Temp was down to 34 now up to 35.1

    Crazy day.

  166. Dr. Judah Cohen was on last night with Harvey Leonard forecasting this upcoming winter and Dr. Cohen believes that there will be a lot of activity along the east coast with above normal precipitation along with lots of cold air diving into the interior sections of the CONUS. All this is due to the heavy snowcover in Siberia.

    However, the state of Maine will have above normal temps, which signals to me that any systems approaching SNE will not experience many cold highs to our north and therefore there will be more rain/mixed events like today’s.

    TK – Is my reasoning above plausible and is your Winter Outlook for cold & dry for the long term now a potential bust already based on Jonah’s thoughts?

    2. What I think is funny is that last year he said precipitation was not correlated to the amount of snow in Siberia.

      I’m only half in agreement with his outlook this year and I believe his overall forecast will not verify completely.

      My overall forecast was for near to slightly above normal temps overall and near to below normal snow, with below normal total precip.

  167. These are the 3 locations in SNE where the rain/snow lines generally set up:

    1. CC Canal (usually good snows for Boston) 😀
    2. I-95 Corridor
    3. I-495 Corridor

    2. It’s more that those are the locations the media references. The lines can set up anywhere and move anywhere, depending on the synoptic situation. I have seen rain/snow lines actually have snow to the south and rain to the north before. It was a stalled low in which warmer marine air had wrapped all the way around it and came down from the north, chasing out some colder air that was in place. Sometime in the 1980s.

  169. Went from snow now a messy mix of sleet and rain the past couple hours. Have not measured but I would say got about 2 3 inches of snow today.

  173. On my way to Mt. Zion now, southwest Woburn. Will check in from there! Moderate sleet/rain mix at Woburn. Back edge of heaviest stuff is 1 hour away from Boston. No changes to forecast. Working out decently well for the most part.

  176. 1.23 total so far at Logan (I think).

    Plymouth at 1.56 inches, Chatham : 1.57 inches

    Pretty impressive precip producer.

    1. Precipitation producer, yes indeed, Tom. I can tell we’re getting to a more saturated stage (water table is significantly higher than it was 6 weeks ago) by the vast puddles on the grass in the Public Garden. 6 weeks ago, rain would just drain away quickly.

      My thoughts turn to the middle of December. After this upcoming stretch of relative warmth (after Saturday) will we see a true pattern change? I have my doubts. I think we will see brief spurts of cold this winter, like the coming two days,. But, precipitation at the coast will be mostly rain and lots of it. Remains to be seen whether a storm like this one is a harbinger of future storms this winter. We’ll see.

      1. Yes, the extended range got a bit cloudier with today’s 12z runs, well, at least in the models opinion.

        GFS in the long range seems to cut the warmth off in the western great lakes. I think it actually has a few clippers diving out of SE Canada with possible redevelopment. Interesting to see if this is a trend.

        Even the EURO doesnt look quite as mild as it has the last few days.

        We shall see.

        2. Thats what i saw too. Throw anything long range out the window. I dont trust anything more than 3 days out

    1. which is why im leaning towards a cooler that what some are thinking. Plus end of next week could get interesting. clippers based on the gfs. euro does not show the clippers. though gfs shows another storm that looks just like this . Far out there but wasn’t it the gfs that first picked this storm pretty far out if i recall.

  178. I’ve been paying attention to the tempature in Boston it was sitting at 37 for awhile and now is going up now at 39

    2. That’s odd. I was just off Waltham Street from 8 to 11 and measured just under 3 which I adjusted to just over 3 from settling. Much of it was sleet, but that was the # I gave you earlier. I had 2, which was the # I gave for myself here. 🙂

  181. Sleetorama in Andover all afternoon. Some snow to start then maybe 3 inches of sleet. Dividing line around Phillips Andover Academy which is a high point in town. Much more snow to the north side.

  182. Plow overkill…I live on a small dead end and have plows coming by every 5 minutes just scraping pavement at this point.

    1. When drivers are looking to stretch OT we get that too. Drives me nuts. Sorry to all honest drivers as there are more honest than not

  183. so many plows out for just 1 inch of snow with maybe .5 of an inch of sleet/ice. Just wait until febuary and there is 6 inches of freakin snow on the road

  184. so many plows out for just 1 inch of snow with maybe .5 of an inch of sleet/ice. Just wait until febuary and there is 6 inches of freakin snow

  186. I had someone tell me that they saw plow drivers frantically trying to get a cumberland farms done and the boss came running out to stop, there wasn’t 2 inches, he doesn’t know if the plowers finished but saw that. There will be a bunch of people that will fight there bill saying 2 inches didn’t fall, especially for a storm like this, I call, and all of them said no 🙂 goodnight

    1. Well as long as they don’t mind just under 2 inches of slushy snow/sleet freezing to ice from tomorrow through Saturday, I guess it’s ok. 😉

  187. 32.7 here. Snowing pretty decently. What a day. So many changes back and forth.
    Everything whitening up as this thing winds down.

    Eric said something about a trough tomorrow. I saw him sneak in a snow map
    of Coating to 2 inches neat the coast and Boston.

    What’s that all about?

  189. Looks like a bit of a surprise late tomorrow night into and during Friday.

    Gonna be pretty white around these parts. 😀

  190. Happy Thanksgiving ALL and good night.

    Will check in again in the morning.

    Hope ALL survived today’s event OK

  194. Happy Thanksgiving to all, as well as your families !! Enjoy 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Quick reflection on past storm …

    1) snowed a bit more than I thought. 2) never saw the sleet scenario coming and surprised by how much there was. 3) what a precip producer !!

    Tonight/tomorrow morning ….

    Hoping for this norlun trof scenario to work out. A few of them have been big snow producers here. I’d love 2-4 inches !! Perhaps making it extra festive for the midnight shoppers 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. The sleet scenario was not included as a possibility until the track of the mid level low become apparent, then it not only became a probability but a certainty, and it appeared in my forecast yesterday morning for the first time. Good thing for the last minute wording-change. I had more ice pellets than snow here. 😉

      1 to 3, locally higher amounts, tonight and Friday morning. Updating now…

  196. Blog is updated. 2 minor snow events between now and early Sunday morning. Milder pattern indeed about to begin but not without a little more Winter weather first.

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