Friday Forecast Update

74 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5…
High pressure starts to move away to the east northeast today, still a great Summer day though. Warm front passes through from west to east morning and midday Saturday bringing a chance of brief light rain and opening the door for the humidity which will last into early next week, along with some heat by Sunday. A cold front will bring a shower/thunderstorm threat for Monday. Dry weather returns Tuesday but in terms of the end of the rain threat and somewhat lower humidity.
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-65. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing areas of light rain west to east in the morning through midday though some areas may stay rain-free. Partly sunny later in the day. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Better risk of passing showers and thunderstorms at night .Humid. Lows 65-70. Highs 85-90, cooler South Coast.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Chance of showers/thunderstorms, favoring the morning through mid afternoon hours. Lows 65-70. Highs 77-85.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-87.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)…
Current indications are for warmer than normal and mainly dry weather but cannot rule out a few passing showers/thunderstorms with a couple disturbances passing through.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)…
Temperatures above normal and rainfall below normal overall during the last several days of the month.

74 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  5. Thanks TK.
    From NWS out of Taunton For Monday. Its a watcher and lets leave it that for now.
    UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND ENHANCES THE MID
    LVL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO +7.0C/KM PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING.
    HIGH SFC CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG AT LEAST ARE POSSIBLE
    IN THIS AIRMASS. THE KEY WILL BE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
    ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN FACT…THE LAPSE RATES PEAK
    EARLY GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH DURING THE AM HOURS…SO
    EVEN IF THE FRONT APPROACHES EARLY STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
    EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 25-35 KT ON
    AVERAGE. SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE AS WELL. LIMITING FACTORS
    ARE REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS LIMITING SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND AN
    EVEN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER…WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
    PERIOD GIVEN ALL THE CONVERGING FACTORS FOR STRONG-SEVERE WEATHER.
    AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SHEAR…STRONG WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
    THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THE HIGHER END LAPSE
    RATES AND 200+ HAIL-CAPE SUGGESTS HAIL/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
    EITHER. NOTING HIGH EHI VALUES BETWEEN 0.8-2 AND LOW LCL POTENTIAL
    WITH HIGH DWPTS IN THE LOW 70S POSSIBLE…TORNADOS NOT OUT OF THE
    QUESTION EITHER. AGAIN…TIMING IS KEY HERE…AS ALL OF THIS MAY
    BE SUPPRESSED OF THE COLD FRONT IS TOO EARLY OR THERE IS TOO MUCH
    LOW LVL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WE APPROACH.

    1. Thanks JJ. Saw this on the previous blog.
      Taunton NWS just does not want to drop mention of tornadoes, does it?

      So far, SREF not interesting in Tornadoes for us. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen, but not likely for sure. My only concern is that I see the
      Vorticity Generation Potential index is .4 just to our West on Sunday.
      So, should that move Eastward in be in our area when convection fires, well
      then I might be concerned. Chart does not go to Monday yet.

  7. Old Salty looking at the meteocentre sites and comparing the 0z GFS and 6z GFS the 6z GFS run looks to be bringing front in a little quicker with best instability in eastern sections where 0z run had instability of all of SNE.
    What I find interesting out of Taunton discussion that part where it is say even if front comes through early strong convection is possible even during morning hours. Sounds to me there thinking there COULD be some dynamics with the front even with the front not coming through during peak heating time.

    1. Yes, I caught that. There are some dynamics in Play. Could get interesting, however, should that front barrel through even earlier, I don’t see too much
      happening. However, we should not let our guard down. The Revere tornado
      occurred at 9:34 AM.

  8. I believe were getting close one year when that EF 2 tornado came through Revere. I don’t remember here in SNE a tornado touching down in the morning hours.

  11. CPC is hearby renamed “CPseesaw” … 😛
    Back to above normal on the 6-10 / 8-15 after having below normal essentially for the same period minus 2 days. Wait what???

  14. 12z NAM for Monday at 18z from meteocentre
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Agreed and it looks more and more like an Early FROPA.

      We shall see. I for one am NOT impressed in the slightest. 😀

  17. I am thinking the front will come through somewhere in between what the 12z runs of the American models are showing.
    Plenty of time for that to change.

  18. Thanks tk 🙂 this is a side note: let’s take buckets of water and throw it on a beached shark into 4ft of ocean water,, smh!! It was beached, it’s naturally dieing, that same shark will kill one of our kids, again smh 🙂

      2. I’m seeing on the news people pulling an almost dead shark back into the ocean. Lol dummies, it’s beached!! Let it die

          1. Or we created the problem to begin with by overfishing and causing the shark to come closer to the shore for its food.

              1. Ace you are very correct. Over 100 million sharks are killed each year by fishing (rec and commercial). They were way down in their numbers until recently but have started to increase and are back to about 60%. (I found the numbers but grandson, who loves the ocean as much as his nana, was one who told me we have “hurt” lots of sharks) 🙂

                4. You are liberal and I understand that you would rather have a shark live, than have 400 new jobs in Massachusetts

  19. NWS out of Tauton take with timing of the front Monday
    THE GFS IS 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OTHERS. THIS CARRIES PCPN
    OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. WE INSTEAD FAVORED THE ECMWF AS A MODEL
    FOR OUR TIMING.

  21. CPC finally with above normal temps and below normal rain on their outlook for 2 consecutive forecasts. That’s more like it.

    I don’t agree with NWS keeping the front too slow for Monday. Favor the faster timing right now. In fact we may have some kind of pre-frontal trough with a fading line of thunderstorms as early as late Sunday night and then leftover stuff departing early Monday and an attempt at renewed convection along a cold front that is moving offshore by late afternoon but through all but southeastern MA by mid afternoon.

    Though I agree there are enough forecast parameters in ranges to make it worth watching, I’m not too excited about severe weather in a widespread fashion on Monday.

    As for the weekend itself, 95% rain-free. Few showers with a warm front Saturday morning. A few spot showers or t-storms mainly interior areas late Saturday and only the slightest risk of a pop up shower or storm on Sunday day/evening preceding any action that arrives from the west at night. The muggies return! Get ready!

    1. How the Bar Harbor ME forecast?
      We were thinking a couple days up north but looks shakier than here…

          1. Ah yes. 3 unsettled days. It won’t rain all the time but a lot of 60s and not a lot of sun unfortunately.

  23. Ho Hum….
    That is all I can say. So much like the winter snows gone poof.

    And why oh why such model divergence. PATHETIC.
    I know they are trying to simulate something that is impossible to do,
    But the disparity it alarming to me.

    1. What you do in that case is eliminate the models that are not going to be correct, and that will be done by learning the model’s various limitations in each situation. Tedious but necessary. 🙂

    2. Most with this news have a smile, most are upset on there insurance going up from this past winter

  25. Charlie your comments above to Vicki are plain rude. Nobody likes reading what you say bc you purposely try to agitate. Why even bother being on the blog?

  26. Looks like 0Z GFS slows the front down just a tad, but still earlier than the NAM.
    We shall see.

    BB indicated big boomers around 2-3 PM on Monday, so he is clearly in
    Camp Euro and not camp GFS. 😀 😀

    1. Not looking good at all over there. Just when they start to dry out later today another low pressure moves in for tonight and at least the first half of tomorrow and then another on Monday.

      1. The wind speed over there you can’t even keep a golf ball to stay still on the green and I just heard the wind over there is
        going to keep blowing till about 3pm local time 10am our time then it should come down and maybe they could
        complete the second round.

            1. ESPN has coverage of the whole tournament. They are running it while the delay is on as well.
              My favorite tourney of all of my faves.

              1. Thank you MassBay. Mac enjoys also. It is a spectacular course isn’t it? I will have to find out about times Monday as I suspect we will have to record multiple shows. He has a most of the day appt Monday.

            2. They hope to let the players who need to finish yesterday’s round go out and finish that in an hour or two if and when the winds drop from sustained 40 mph down into the 20s. It is critical for those among the leaders, like Speith and Dustin Johnson and Oosthuizen and some others to get through their last few holes without the wind ruining their scores.

                1. They are five hours ahead. Some players hit some shots and then all realized it was a bad call to have started. It cost Johnson a bogey. His chip shot stopped on the green and then the wind blew it all the way back to him.

                2. Thanks MB. Mac just turned on the TV. We had it recording. I would hope they would let the bogey go but suspect they may not. What a shame.

  28. I have seen delays at the Open Championship for wind before but I don’t ever recall a lengthy delay for rain which was the case yesterday with a 3 hour 14 minute delay. I am wondering if they will finish this tournament tomorrow or will there be a Monday finish and I wonder if that would were to happen would it be the first Monday finish this tournament has ever had.

    1. I’m upset they didn’t make an exception and let Tom Watson play the last two days. Just waive his right to win. I admire golfs ability to stick to the rules, but heart should enter into it also.

  30. 6z NAM for Monday still robust. Still think this needs to be cut down some.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=PW&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  31. 0z Canadian Model Run For Monday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Currently jj I think there’s a high chance of showers and storms, not much severe weather though, as usual 🙂

  33. Morning all! Posted an update!

    JimmyJames I transferred all the links you posted to the new entry.

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