Thursday Forecast Update

68 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5…
High pressure moves in today with refreshing air from Canada and lots of sun. The high starts to move away to the east northeast on Friday which will still be a nice day but feature more high cloudiness. Disturbance moves through from west to east Saturday with lots of clouds but only a few showers. Fair weather Sunday between the departure of Saturday’s disturbance and the arrival of another disturbance from the west Monday with another shot at showers as well as thunderstorms.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light N to E.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s interior, near 60 coast.
FRIDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-82.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 77-85.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 77-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)…
Muggy with showers and thunderstorms possible July 21. Drier and warm July 22. Showers/thunderstorms around July 23-24 then drier and hotter at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)…
Warmer to hotter pattern becoming more likely with a few passing showers/thunderstorms but largely dry weather during this period.

68 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK, what an air mass change! Refreshingly cool out there. Feels like early fall.

  3. Good morning and many thanks TK.

    Going to be in Lakeville tomorrow. Does 80 Degrees sound about right
    for the high temperature?

    Many thanks

  4. Thanks TK. Perfect July day in my opinion
    For Saturday 6z NAM gives instablity for all of SNE 6z GFS just far western areas get instablity.
    For Monday GFS back on with instability with CAPE in the 1,500 – 2,500 range LIFT -4 to -6

    1. Almost all thunderstorm threats have fizzled this year, so why should we
      expect anything else. I’ll believe it when/if I see it. 😀 😀

    1. Wow, a direct hit.
      VERY VERY ACTIVE Early season in the Pacific!

      On another note, did you see where it is snowing in Australia?
      I saw it somewhere, let me see IF I can find it.

        1. Thats good because I think the tendency is for El Nino to make Australia drier than normal, so here’s to all the winter precip they can get.

          About 3-4 days ago, I saw a picture of snow in Australia on facebook from a friend of my wife, who is from Australia and is there now.

          1. Our Niece is married to an Australian Diplomat
            who currently is assigned to the Australian
            Embassy in Santiago Chile. We’re seeing them
            tomorrow at their family cottage on
            Assawompset Pond in Lakeville. He is from
            Melbourne and they will be moving their
            when his assignment is complete next year.

            I hear all the good stuff from him. 😀

  7. For you music afficionados OR for those lamenting this past Winter, this
    song by Frank Turner is for you. Since he is from England, we “may” have to
    substitute the rain with snow, but otherwise this is a very fitting song to describe
    our last Winter. Personally, I think it is Awesome! Further I think Frank Turner
    is Awesome!

    Here it is, enjoy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4IZbCl6iR4

    1. I’ll have to check this out on another IPad later, we took you-tube off of this IPad, so, I cant open it at the moment.

    2. Definitely the theme song of last winter. 4 storms in, it felt like we were taking a beating.

    1. I can sum it up better.

      “THURSDAY” or in my case since I am off tomorrow, “FRIDAY!!!!!!” 😀

  11. Meteocentre doesn’t show 21z but here is 0z on Saturday. I am no way buying this but just posting what I see.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Again, for Western sections. IF there are any strong to Severe storms it
      will be CT River Valley and Westward. By the time activity reaches
      Eastern section we will have lost any possible heating of the sun and thus
      instability will be down. Garden variety T-storms here or just plain showers
      OR Nothing whatsoever. We shall see.

      Atmosphere looks to be volatile. It needs to be watched in case
      timing changes.

  12. TK – During August and September will there be some cooler breaks in between the intense heat expected?

    1. Well to clarify I’m not sure we’ll be in an ‘intense heat” but rather just a hot pattern compared to seasonal averages. There would be short lived breaks.

  13. When dealing with thunderstorms timing COULD change quickly. I think if there is severe weather Saturday I would favor eastern NY northern NJ. SPC has SNE in general thunderstorm outlook. This outlook will get updated twice tomorrow.

      1. “should” anything happen around these parts, it would be
        Monday and NOT Saturday or Sunday. Just my gut feeling
        and current charts.

        1. I take all of that back. I think I am having a SENIOR MOMENT. I am getting mixed up on the days.

          I now reserve judgement till later. I haven’t a clue. 😆

  14. I give TK a lot of credit. He stays consistent to an outlook, such as warmer in the long term. I think it’s impressive, because on individual model runs, there’s a lot of flip flopping. But over many recent runs, taking them all into account, can definitely see the pattern shifting towards warmer times in the long term.

    1. Tk should have a TV job as he is considerably better than most and as good as the best! And that is a fact not opinion!

          1. If I may pile on as well…In a good way :)TK your thoughts last week on the forecast for this week was spot on! It has been an enjoyable week of vacation in this great State of ours. Kudos to you and thanks!

  16. I’m not predicting here, but the following are the instability parameters
    from the 12Z GFS for SUNDAY.

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=078&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    I must say the EHI is VERY HIGH by GFS standards. Keep monitoring.

    That’s pretty juicy. Question is will there be enough LIFT to fire storms and tap
    that instability. Perhaps so. Not sure.

    1. Just a thought on the EHI.

      It is comprised of components of CAPE and HELICITY, thus it is possible
      to have a fairly high EHI with High Cape values and low helicity values.
      Therefore, not need to get alarmed by those elevated values. I get concerned
      when I see the SREF tornado prediction charts correlate with the EHI.
      Most times it does not, but when it does, watch out.

      Current SREF does not. Please see the significant tornado ingredients
      for 8PM Sunday, same time frame as charts above.

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015071609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f087.gif

      I keep monitoring this chart plus the significant tornado parameter chart.

      The above is for 9Z. 15Z data coming out now. Since it is ever changing,
      have to monitor this. These charts not only take into account helicity and shear, but also the other instability parameters. These charts do NOT show
      values, UNLESS, strong convection is possible in the first place, Even if
      very strong helicity exists. No concern if there is no rotating storm even possible.

  17. I’m not too excited about severe weather this weekend. We may not even see all that much activity of any kind.

    The short-wave coming through here around Monday is a little interesting, but again timing may be an issue and will have to wait for a shorter duration between “now” and the event to nail it down.

    Still pretty confident we’re about to get rid of the current pattern in the course of the July 20-26 period.

    1. Thank You. I have never seen the models flip flop and wiggle around as much
      as they have been in this pattern. Not even in the Winter do they flip like
      this.

      thanks

  18. SREF Calibrated chance of severe thunderstorm, 12 hour period ending 8Pm Sunday evening:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_12HR_SVR_PROBS__f081.gif

    Calibrated chance of a thunderstorm period, 12 hour period ending 8PM Sunday
    evening.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_PROB_TRW_CALIBRATED_12HR__f081.gif

    VERY MUCH in line with TK’s thoughts above.

    In short NOTHING to be concerned or excited about for Sunday.

    Now we look towards Monday to see IF there is any concerning action.

  19. I’m going to be increasing my temps for Sunday as I believe we’ll end up with more sun than I thought earlier. 85-92 for high temps except cooler coastal areas.

  20. Has to be just right to get storms around here, don’t expect much more than a shower or isolated garden variety storm Monday 🙂

    1. 4 days out. That system is not sampled well enough to be sure yet. My concern with that comes from pattern recognition, not model runs, at this point.

  21. Just going to keep an eye on it for now. Before then lets enjoy this great weather that will continue into tomorrow with those dew points in the comfortable range.

    1. From Upton NWS office re: Monday

      A SHARPENING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS ON MON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WX AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

      Of course it depends upon the timing of FROPA.

      1. Sat then sun then now mon, I understand it’s not you or anybody on the blog, but it’s like yeah I’ll believe it when I see it 🙂

        1. NOTHING will happen Saturday.
          Although there will be decent instability on Sunday, there will be a Cap at 700 mb limiting convection. SO not much
          until Monday. That is the wild card and will depend on
          timing as per usual. 😀

        2. It’s one thing to believe it when you see it, but you don’t have the responsibility to forewarn people of possible or impending severe weather, however small an area it impacts.

  23. The Saturday thunderstorm POTENTIAL was just started to be talked about yesterday. We been mentioning the possiblity of thunderstorm POTENTIAL in that 19th -21st time frame. Nothing may materialize but still think these need to be watched.

    1. for 21st GFS

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=LI&hh=096&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=096&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

      EHI no Big Woof. I thought it might be higher.

  24. New disturbance in the central Atlantic. In a year like this, these ones can be dangerous to us. Note the track. They’ll struggle and huff and puff as they traverse the open waters out there, but once they get towards the Bahamas it’s a whole new game. Those open waters will probably be just too much this time, there’s like 50kts of wind shear out there (thanks El Nino) so there simply won’t be anything left to take advantage. Even if did pull off a miracle and develop, it appears we would have some trough help anyways to push it out.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

    1. Under normal conditions, very dangerous position.
      Needs to be watched just in case there is something left
      as it approaches super warm waters off the SE coast.

      We shall see.

    1. It is tragic. Those men stood for all that is good in our country. I ache for their families. They certainly have a special place in heaven but it is just too soon. I agree with your concerns about the backlash. We need to keep in perspective that there are extremists in all people….americans certainly included….and those folks do not reflect the whole.

        1. Thank you OS

          And this morning we hear one of the marines was from Springfield and survived two tours of duty in Iraq. Heartbreaking.

  27. 0Z NAM for Monday

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=066

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  28. From NWS out of Taunton For Monday. I would say we have a Watcher and leave it at that
    UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND ENHANCES THE MID
    LVL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO +7.0C/KM PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING.
    HIGH SFC CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG AT LEAST ARE POSSIBLE
    IN THIS AIRMASS. THE KEY WILL BE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
    ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN FACT…THE LAPSE RATES PEAK
    EARLY GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH DURING THE AM HOURS…SO
    EVEN IF THE FRONT APPROACHES EARLY STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
    EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 25-35 KT ON
    AVERAGE. SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THERE AS WELL. LIMITING FACTORS
    ARE REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS LIMITING SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND AN
    EVEN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER…WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
    PERIOD GIVEN ALL THE CONVERGING FACTORS FOR STRONG-SEVERE WEATHER.
    AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SHEAR…STRONG WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
    THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THE HIGHER END LAPSE
    RATES AND 200+ HAIL-CAPE SUGGESTS HAIL/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
    EITHER. NOTING HIGH EHI VALUES BETWEEN 0.8-2 AND LOW LCL POTENTIAL
    WITH HIGH DWPTS IN THE LOW 70S POSSIBLE…TORNADOS NOT OUT OF THE
    QUESTION EITHER. AGAIN…TIMING IS KEY HERE…AS ALL OF THIS MAY
    BE SUPPRESSED OF THE COLD FRONT IS TOO EARLY OR THERE IS TOO MUCH
    LOW LVL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WE APPROACH

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