7:11AM
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
Like that little teaser scene at the start of a movie, a disturbance passing south of the region today may cause a few flakes of snow to fall in southern portions of southeastern New England this morning so don’t be alarmed if you see this. There will be no accumulation…
March is here and if you are a veteran of New England weather you now have no reason to make the mistake that “Meteorological Spring” means that winter is over, especially during its first 4 to 6 weeks. It doesn’t matter what any ground hogs said. It doesn’t matter what the weather has been like before this. It just doesn’t matter. It’s March in New England, and March can be a harsh month. It isn’t always, but if often is. March 2019 will have some elements of harshness in its opening days. But don’t say you were not warned. Several media outlets including WHW have hinted about having to watch the early days of this month for cold and possible storm threats, including snow threats. We just got a preview as February ended and now we’ll have a couple more during the first 5 days of the month. It’s a pretty simple large scale pattern in place now that will allow it. Colder air available, less ability to push it out of the way, and a jet stream settled enough to the south that the main storm track is over or just south of New England. It looks like the next 2 low pressure areas will follow that track. And applying the known uncertainty, it looks like threat number 1, Saturday, will produce more snow than threat number 2, Sunday night and Monday. But as you know, and have been reminded many times, things can change quickly so don’t come away from this discussion thinking all of this is locked in. It’s weather, after all. Oh yes, and for those interested, the MJO has traveled through phases 8 and 1, probably helping to set us up for the fluffy snow event we just had, and hangs out in phase 2 just long enough for these next couple threats. The sole reason? Probably not. But it’s hard not to think that MJO, which has been a mixture of thorn-in-the-side and meteorological intrigue is playing a role here in a different way now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA this morning. Increasing sun midday and afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn (after 3AM most locations). Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow likely morning and early afternoon (ending by about 2PM), may mix with rain South Coast. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches most likely, with some areas of southwestern NH and north central MA possibly under 3 inches due to less precipitation and some areas of the South Coast possibly under 3 inches due to mixing with rain. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds during the day. Cloudy at night with a chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow early. Isolated snow showers afternoon. Temperatures generally steady upper 20s to middle 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Isolated snow flurries. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Watching for a possible wave of low pressure not seen currently by guidance that may bring cloudiness and a snow threat during March 6, and a follow up threat March 8, as the pattern remains on the colder and somewhat active side. These systems could be weak or suppressed to the south as well.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Another storm threat to start the period then a reconfiguration of the pattern may allow a few milder days. Low confidence forecast.