Friday Forecast

296 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
Like that little teaser scene at the start of a movie, a disturbance passing south of the region today may cause a few flakes of snow to fall in southern portions of southeastern New England this morning so don’t be alarmed if you see this. There will be no accumulation…
March is here and if you are a veteran of New England weather you now have no reason to make the mistake that “Meteorological Spring” means that winter is over, especially during its first 4 to 6 weeks. It doesn’t matter what any ground hogs said. It doesn’t matter what the weather has been like before this. It just doesn’t matter. It’s March in New England, and March can be a harsh month. It isn’t always, but if often is. March 2019 will have some elements of harshness in its opening days. But don’t say you were not warned. Several media outlets including WHW have hinted about having to watch the early days of this month for cold and possible storm threats, including snow threats. We just got a preview as February ended and now we’ll have a couple more during the first 5 days of the month. It’s a pretty simple large scale pattern in place now that will allow it. Colder air available, less ability to push it out of the way, and a jet stream settled enough to the south that the main storm track is over or just south of New England. It looks like the next 2 low pressure areas will follow that track. And applying the known uncertainty, it looks like threat number 1, Saturday, will produce more snow than threat number 2, Sunday night and Monday. But as you know, and have been reminded many times, things can change quickly so don’t come away from this discussion thinking all of this is locked in. It’s weather, after all. Oh yes, and for those interested, the MJO has traveled through phases 8 and 1, probably helping to set us up for the fluffy snow event we just had, and hangs out in phase 2 just long enough for these next couple threats. The sole reason? Probably not. But it’s hard not to think that MJO, which has been a mixture of thorn-in-the-side and meteorological intrigue is playing a role here in a different way now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA this morning. Increasing sun midday and afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn (after 3AM most locations). Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow likely morning and early afternoon (ending by about 2PM), may mix with rain South Coast. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches most likely, with some areas of southwestern NH and north central MA possibly under 3 inches due to less precipitation and some areas of the South Coast possibly under 3 inches due to mixing with rain. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds during the day. Cloudy at night with a chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow early. Isolated snow showers afternoon. Temperatures generally steady upper 20s to middle 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Isolated snow flurries. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Watching for a possible wave of low pressure not seen currently by guidance that may bring cloudiness and a snow threat during March 6, and a follow up threat March 8, as the pattern remains on the colder and somewhat active side. These systems could be weak or suppressed to the south as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Another storm threat to start the period then a reconfiguration of the pattern may allow a few milder days. Low confidence forecast.

296 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. The disturbance that I spoke of above. It’s harmless other than a few flakes to the south.

      1. Tk is this a wetter snow tomorrow. Do you feel confident its done around 2pm give or take in medical area ( 3-6 ) correct . I may need to leave Saturday Pm to head home & get ready to head back in for the game so need to give a heads up to Crew . Many thanks

  6. Thanks TK. Looking over models sure are spitting more than 6+ bit limiting factor is lower ratios.

  7. I have customers who are hysterical about the โ€œfootโ€ weโ€™re getting tomorrow…..

  12. Thanks TK.

    Nice little burst of light snow for a few hours here in CT this AM coated the ground and side streets. Sun is poking out now but still snowing very lightly.

    John – 6z NAM FYI had snow ending in Boston between 2 and 3pm tomorrow.

  13. I venture to say that 6+ should be pretty doable. Snow rates are strong due to storm getting pretty strong pretty quick. Should overcome any March sung angle and lower ratios.

    1. I also give a tad more credence to the GFS with a slightly more amplified and slower solution despite our recent run.

  15. NWS discounting the slower/more amped GFS solution. Does not make sense with the highly progressive pattern we are in.

    12z NAM just came in with a general 3-4โ€ across SNE at 10:1 ratios

    1. That’s a slight uptick from the 0Z run and an even larger increase from yesterday’s 18Z, but is trying to adjust. I still feel 3-4 inches is too low.

  16. Thank you, TK…….and what a treat this am to see Hadi and Arod here! Finished my food shopping but need a script at CVS and a package store stop. Onion Soup on the weekend menu.

    1. Pick up a bottle of Appleton rum and I will head your way after work to enjoy the snow with you. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Given the evolution of tomorrow’s storm, I think Monday’s system turns out colder and more suppressed. That would mean more snow and less precip type issues.

      2. I was mentioning this yesterday. The stronger and more NW the first storm is, the flatter and more off shore the second storm will be, meaning a colder solution with that one and snow right down to the coast. NWS mentioned that same thing in their discussion yesterday. A stronger first storm pushes the stronger baraclonicity (storm track) further south and east with the second system.

        That said…I am not sold that the first storm will be all that potent.

  19. 9Z SREF has backed off for tomorrow.
    About 4 1/2 inches for Boston.
    HRRR about 3 1/2
    NAMS around 4

    Beginning to look like 3-6,2-5 is about the right call. Again, time will tell.

  20. It is amazing how what was very ominous skies just hours ago are now are clear, deep blue.

    1. To your earlier comment about the sun… It’s not correct. The sun angle had a significant impact from mid-February on.

    1. I have ! Just had someone cancel for tomorrow – โ€œdonโ€™t think Iโ€™ll be able to leave the house……โ€ The television weather hype just terrifies people. Even if we get 3โ€ of. Snow tomorrow, the grocery store will still be open……

      1. To be honest I haven’t really seen this particular threat as being that hyped. Perhaps now it’s because more people are creating their own hype, possibly at least partially as a result of arguably unintentional “training” due to repeated exposure to previous hype.

        1. The โ€œS Wordโ€ seems to send absolute terror into people
          At its mere mention. The traffic on weather apps must increase 10 fold or more if snow is even mentioned?

      2. I won’t be leaving my house tomorrow. I typically do my food shopping Friday or Saturday morning. I had planned for Saturday this week. I did it today.

      1. I hope it becomes less of a player with time. All fluff like the last one please. I am getting very sick of these messy mixes.

  24. I saw an interesting quote the other day.

    Everything you do is
    based on the choices you make.
    It’s not your parents, your past
    relationships, your job, the
    economy, the weather, an
    argument or your age that is to
    blame. You and only you are
    responsible for every decision
    and choice you make.
    Period.

    1. I love this quote. To me this applies even to how one handles their coping with nature, outside of super-conscious reaction to elements.

    3. Any of us are capable of making choices that result in consequences for others that they did not necessarily chose.

      1. You are absolutely correct. But isn’t it the responsibility of the folks impacted to understand the possible choices others can and often do make and be prepared? I am huge on Plan Bs….C and D and E…if needed. This is all true of course only if the choices are legal. I think that is implied but doesn’t hurt to qualify.

        1. True – but not everyone has the same capacity for, nor capability of perceiving those impacts. Then I guess it becomes our โ€œchoiceโ€ to meet others where they are – or not – sometimes one of the more difficult things in life to do……

          1. Again, you are correct. Initially, it is difficult to determine how you will be impacted and by what. However, ultimately, after each scenario, if a person does not learn, then it reverts right back to the quote. Oddly, to me, finding solutions for something is one of the more interesting parts of life.

          2. And that brings me to another favorite quote of mine…. I suspect this will be the last but with me there are never guarantees. Blame my calm meditation app….oh wait, nope…..blame me ๐Ÿ˜‰

            With everything that happens in life, a person can either feel sorry for himself or treat what has happened as a gift. Everything is either an opportunity to grow or an obstacle to keep you from growing. Everyone gets to choose.

            Good discussion, M.L. Thank you. I try really hard to learn from discussions and you have given some great counter examples.

              1. I heard someone say once something to the effect that โ€œwhen confronted by a problem in life we all have the same 3 basic choices : do something different, do nothing, or try harder at what hasnโ€™t been working…….โ€ Iโ€™ve found this to be true in a very basic way.
                thanks for the discussion too

    1. I’m of the opinion that the precipitation and as a result the snow amounts are too high on this run.

        1. I donโ€™t know mark respectfully that could be backwards with tomorrow being the more snow fall.

          1. Entirely possible and the 12z GFS run actually shows the first as producing slightly more snow than the second. But based on everything I am seeing, the second system looks more juiced and capable of producing more QPF/higher snow totals where it stays all snow

                1. The curious in my would like to know. Is it not like the 69 storms because those were spaced and 2015 was not? And I’d be the most surprised person on the planet if we had a repeat of 2015.

                  Surprise me….please ๐Ÿ˜‰

  28. 12z CMC is 3-6″ for the first system (highest amounts SE MA) and 8-12″ for the second storm most places.

    12z ICON is same as the CMC with 3-6″ for the first system (highest SE MA) but only 2-4″ for the second storm.

      1. Not really, most forecasts I saw never really went higher than 3-6″ in most places and those numbers still look good. A few of the models late yesterday PM were more robust but they have tapered back to reality this AM. Some of those TV snowmaps that show the 6-9″ bullseye over SE MA might need to be tapered back though. Doesn’t look like the higher end of those ranges will verify.

  33. I hate the trends of snow going further south I am hoping it comes further north , I want good snow for Merrimack valley my area and southern ski areas like wachusett and even portions of vt

  35. 6+ still on the table for tomorrow from Boston, south and east except for far southeastern MA where mixing could occur, yet the + seems to be more the exception than the rule.

  36. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki, love your quote. But what do you do if you make a decision and it turns out wrong? Even if you try B, C, etc.? Lately my decisions and luck have usually not worked out good. In any case, I keep trying. Will try to be more positive.

    With tomorrow’s storm and the potential for more storms in March doesn’t surprise me. Days are slowly getting longer; some hardy birds singing in early morning. But the snow isn’t over yet. Looking forward to spring – by mid- to late April I think we can be convinced winter is over! I think! LOL! ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. I know – and I do believe we have had snow in May, too.

        On my soapbox, briefly. We give names to storms (not fond of naming winter storms as Weath. Chann. does); we put dates on calendar that it is officially spring, summer, fall and winter and change dates to eastern standard to daylight savings at our whim. But I think as TK said above, the weather is weather and it does what it wants to do. As does nature. Off my soapbox!

      2. April 29, 1987, comes to mind, Philip. And of course May 8/9, 1977 …she said and winced. I always think 78.

    2. rainshine, I have had the pleasure to know some amazingly kind souls in my life. I’d say you are among the top of that list. Anyone who gives off the special light that you do is doing something very right. Big hugs to you!

      1. Thank you, Vicki. That was very sweet of you. And I try to be a nice person. But I am not perfect. I make mistakes – and there are people who don’t like me and do like me. Maybe I try to be too nice sometimes.

        Vicki – you are at the Very top of the list. You are very special. I still wish we could meet in person someday.

        1. Perfect is way overrated. I mess up as much as I don’t although I cannot imagine anyone not liking you!

          I hope we can meet some day. I really want to try to get into Russell’s for Easter decorations. If I can get that accomplished, maybe we could meet for coffee.

          1. Sounds like a plan! Let me know when you go and hopefully we can meet. I love Russell’s – they have quite a variety of nice things there.

    1. An entire season’s worth of snow in 10 days at Hartford. That’ll turn the season around in a hurry ๐Ÿ™‚

  40. Looking at the next 15 days on the models is like looking at that Red Rider BB gun in the store window with high hopes, only to have TK say, youโ€™ll shoot your eye out kid!!

    1. what an excellent analogy and reference! TK is always telling us we will shoot our eyes out and he is usually spot on

      1. Well I hope not literally spot on ๐Ÿ™‚ I think that is a reference to the only christmas movie in history that I am not a fan of. Was my son’s favorite, however.

        1. Awwwww. I consider that movie a classic! ๐Ÿ™‚

          Oh well, to each his/her own. ๐Ÿ˜‰

          1. And a great analogy as well. No doubt some snow events on the maps will not be realized. ๐Ÿ™‚

          2. The vast majority does and it is a classic. I have no idea what it is I don’t like. Perhaps, I’ll watch again this weekend and get back to you. It still amazes me that there is anything about Christmas that I do not absolutely love.

  41. Keeping in mind that I don’t have EURO snowmaps ….

    See the first low looks a little south of the benchmark tonight. Guessing heaviest precip stays south.

    2nd low up over CC Canal.

    Think SE Mass may be able to avoid a whallop on both storms.

    2. How much you thinking for work Tom . This one is tough as I have bruins tickets tomorrow night . Even if storm stops at 3 we will still be cleaning up till 9 or 10

      1. Honestly, I defer and listen to TK.

        He has a much better feel for this pattern and has been spot on. My guess will be that and much less accurate.

        1. Tom I can leave if needed ( would be the first ) but we still go hours with part two which is final clean up . Itโ€™s a two phase system keeping up with storm than final rounds .

    1. The ECMWF is badly inconsistent on the second one.

      When we get in close range it just predicts 4 inches for everyone. Easy. Just take the zero off the original forecast. Abysmal model this winter.

      1. Forget my stupid fluffy question above. The same old messy mix followed by flash freeze for Boston. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  46. You are correct TK, the snow around the house was fiction. I took the family on a road trip this past summer and Cleveland was one of the stops. We took the tour of the home they filmed the movie in, was really neat and very educational. One of the things we learned was that Cleveland had a snow drought that winter with zero snow on the ground, so they had to spray foam everywhere. However some of the other scenes such as the flag pole at school was filmed in Canada and both the snow and bitter cold were real.

  47. As each successive HRRR and RAP comes in, I get LESS and LESS impressed about
    tomorrow’s event. !@&#&!@#&!@&#!&@#&!@&#!@&#!&@#&!@#&!@#&!@

    But hey, we weren’t supposed to have an event tomorrow in the 1st place. ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. I have little doubt it will. Pretty much all other guidance is colder and farther south/east of the Euro.

      1. They can look ahead if they want. I created the blog comments for people to discuss weather.

  50. 15Z SREF back up to 5.21 inches for boston.

    Still liking 2-5 inches for the Boston area. HRRR completely UNDERWHELMS me!

    1. Does the SREF tell what the melted equivalent is ……

      funny, some areas could get the same snowfall in inches as compared to Wednesday night and yet, double their melted precip total.

      I get the idea if this first system’s melted amount fell Wednesday night, it might have resulted in 6-10, but because the temps are much more marginal, its looking like its not that impressive.

  51. Can someone please tell me what Christmas movie you are all referring to from the above posts? (I may be nice but sometimes not that bright! ๐Ÿ™‚

  52. And the 18z HRRR is in. The envelop please….

    1.9 freaking inches for Boston. ha ha

    https://imgur.com/a/6Fvrg66

    Mighty impressive there, I must say.

    OH and btw, the snow ratios are down to around 6:1 and earlier in the event
    it was at best 8:1. so that is part of the problem. That plus the higher March sun
    angle.

    1. The HRRR is out to lunch. It is clearly an outlier as is the GFS to a lesser extent. The blend of guidance still gives nearby suburbs of Boston a solid half a foot.

    1. Because their official snowfall accumulation forecast for Boston leaves them below the lower limit needed for the issuance of a warning to include that area. It’s only where there is a 4-6 range will they issue a watch or warning, or as close as the counties fit the range area.

        1. I have them in 3-6. NWS must be regarding the city as being in 2-4 but it’s really hair splitting at this point.

            1. I have them in a 3-6 range as outlined in the original blog post. If there are any changes, I will announce them.

                1. Once again… You can make an exact number guess, but it’s far better forecasting to use a range. It probably isn’t going to end up 4.0 inches. Let’s just say that.

    1. It never did, but it has continued to tick north in terms of snowfall amounts in the last 24 hours from run to run. I have not seen the 18Z NAM, however.

      3. I said I have a hunch that Boston could end up with more snow from the first one than the second one.

        But by no means is that my final call.

    2. Still holding serve from the 12Z which is significantly higher than what it was illustrating yesterday at this time.

  56. I think the warning was issued because of the short time period in which the snow will fall more than the amounts. Remember 6 inches within I believe 12 hours or more than 8 in 24 hours., parts of that warning area very well see a areas getting close to 6 and 8 inches but it will be very small coverage area

    1. It’s a judgement call and there is probably much truth to what you say. The problem is, alot of people translate “winter storm warning” into “big snowstorm”, which is not necessarily correct.

    2. I should add that if there is even a very small area that falls in the 6-8 range on their forecast they will definitely issue a warning but it is issued for the entire county, not just the area that is 6-8 in the range. That’s an across the board NWS policy. It’s not necessarily good, but that’s how they do it. They also should be able to assume that the consumer is smart enough to put 2 & 2 together and figure it out by looking at both products.

  57. I’m going to caution you now that the NAM’s frozen totals for the second event will probably be way overdone if there is mix/change involved.

      1. I, for one, have found the challenge more enjoyable than annoying. But amusingly annoying at times can be applied as well. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. I suspect if it were my profession, I’d be saying the same thing. I do enjoy a challenge.

          1. I honestly love it. Even when I get blown out of the water on a forecast there is always something to learn. This is why somebody like WxW has risen to as excellent a level as he has this soon. Acceptance. Admit when you don’t know. When you mess it up, find out why. The open mind of an eager scientist will serve one far better than the know-it-all attitude of an “egoist”. ๐Ÿ˜‰

            1. I like to think that is how we all learn in general – life, relationships, profession. Sure makes life in general more interesting.

            2. Very underrated comment. So much wisdom and words that can be applied to not just scientists.

  58. Interesting that as of the most recent update, NWS’s “low end” map is zeroes everywhere. ๐Ÿ˜‰ That was as of 3AM though. It won’t be all 0 when the next update comes out within the hour.

  59. Ryan Hanrahanโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™ @ryanhanrahan ยท 1h1 hour ago

    After Saturday morning’s snow it looks like we’ll get a brief burst in the evening as an upper level disturbance swings in. An additional coating to an inch possible with it. #nbcct

  60. NWS just tweeted a snowman for Sunday/Monday 6-8 Metro Boston with 8-12 from about halfway between 128-495 north and west

  61. Before anybody freaks out, the new NWS map is valid through Monday’s event, and is probably too high anyway.

  63. Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for Bristol County. I think it should have included Norfolk County IMHO. Nevertheless, the remainder of the area remains in a WWA.

  65. I know they are pressured to do this but what I am seeing on local TV are far far too many details given about Sunday night / Monday, including positions of rain/snow lines down to a few miles. This is just not possible this far in advance. It just isn’t.

  66. I tend to forget how much I enjoy the Beatles pandora station. Gordon lightfoot to eagles to CCR and much more.

  67. There is a low layer of clouds extending across the sky to my south. Almost looked like mountains in the distance. Above are alternating layers of white/light grey clouds and filtered light blue. Darn but it is a beautiful world.

  68. Boy that temperature in Boston is close .Wankum has 4 in the city for number 1. 11pm Sunday number 2 with numbers .

  69. Kudos to Eric Fisher for not overdoing detail on the 2nd storm. He satisfied the bosses but also mentioned not throwing too many numbers at the viewers. Well-done!

    1. He is without doubt a keeper. Have loved him from the first. And if anyone gives him a hard time, he gives as good as he gets.

  70. May I repeat what others have said….it is not only great to see arod here but to see so many posts. Make the storm that much sweeter

  71. Because of the timing of tomorrow’s snow (daytime in March) and relatively insignificant amounts (my guess is 2-4 inches in Boston and vicinity) I think the impact on travel will be manageable. In fact, I don’t think there will much need for much plowing of streets and highways. Parking lots, sidewalks, yes. Main streets, highways, no. There will of course be the need for salting the roads and plowing side streets. South and east of Boston may be a different story. I think southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island could easily get 6 inches in a relatively short period of time. There travel will be impacted more.

    1. Thank you for sharing. I seem to recall there have been a few changes in recent years because of snow issues. It is sad.

    2. Unlike dog racing in the south, sled dogs groups are usually family owned and well taken care of. If not the relationship between the pusher and dog would faulted and both will not make it

  73. NWS has snow to plain rain for Boston and the rest of the coastal plain based on the Euro. Rain/snow line well to the west of I-95. ๐Ÿ™

    1. Not really. This is what they say regarding the Sunday storm….

      FROM NWS BOSTON:

      Enough cold air in place for precip to start as snow across all SNE
      Sun evening, but expect an eventual change to rain overnight along
      the south coast and the coastal plain near the I-95 corridor from
      PVD to BOS with mostly snow to the north and west. This area has
      greatest uncertainty regarding snowfall amounts as ptype transition
      zone expected to be nearby. A period of heavy snow with 1-2″/hr
      snowfall rates will possible in the interior overnight Sun night but
      duration of heavy snowfall rates should will be limited as this will
      remain an open wave with no closed mid level low developing.

      Regarding snowfall, prelim thinking is max snowfall axis of 6-10″
      across the interior west of I-95 corridor, with highest amounts
      across interior MA and portions of northern CT. Expect 4-7″ along
      the I-95 corridor into interior SE MA, 2-4″ PVD-TAN-PYM and 1-2″
      near the south coast. However, it is important to note that any
      shift in the storm track will result in changes to these numbers.

  75. Pete has 5-8โ€ for Boston. A bit high to say the least?

    Then Pete has rain/snow line to 495 for #2. Just 2-4โ€ for Boston.

    1. Just his take on it. Remember, they use in-house guidance as well. Factoring in that his boss wants him to talk about both, he’s gotta do something.

    2. He has a large area in 5-9 but area adjacent and to the north of Boston is 3-5 which to me means 5 giveor take for Boston.

  76. Mark regarding your post above about the NWS discussion. They mention how this storm will be quick because there is no mid level low. How would someone identify a mid level low on a map? Do I change to surface map? I know a mid level low makes the storm little longer but I have no idea why or how to identify it in a weather model map. I tried googling but no luck.

  77. Grabbing dinner before I head in Iโ€™ll report live from the city a tad later . Tough getting in places tonight down here

  78. Hi TK. Could you give an estimate for this 1st storm. Personal travel is an issue for me right now.

    2. I’ll be in Swampscott tomorrow Longshot on Paradise Road. I’m expecting a bit less up there in a tune of a few inches.

      1. Just what I was thinking. “Dorothy, you can’t fall asleep now. We must get to the Wizard of Oz so you can go back to Kansas …”

  80. It’s going to be difficult to get around town by foot on Tuesday and Wednesday. Actually from Monday evening until Thursday. There will be lots of crusty ice, some black ice, and a treacherous scene for pedestrians.

  81. euro is showing 6+ southeast MA with areas around the canal and out to the cape seeing close to a foot. Around 4 to 6 inches boston 2 to 4 northwest suburbs of boston Second storm around 10 inches at a 10 to 1 ratio for central and NE mass a bit less as you go further south and east.

  84. latest models are not good I feel like someone on here was saying tomorrows system coulg give the area more snow than the monday system no longer looing that impressive

      1. im not impressed with either one of these systems, I have a bad feeling they will be to far south maybe south of the pike gets some good snow but up in my area again gonna loose out.

        1. Sorry Matt. Still looking like close to a half a foot where I am. Not a blockbuster but canโ€™t be too greedy. Hereโ€™s hoping for a slight shift to the north so you can get in on the action.

          1. I want a major shift, to many of the systems have either given me snow to rain with little snow or the snow is supressed to the south, the last thing I would want is people south of the pike to get snow and northern mass to miss out. I find snow south of the pike especially big snow to just be a waste/ ๐Ÿ™‚ I rather have rain and give snow to wachusett points north than have snow over SE mass, RI and Ct and get nothing, at least up there I can still use it when its time for skiing.

    2. And there’s a surprise. I have been monitoring that all afternoon. It was pretty obvious that the numbers needed dialing back. I was saying 2-5 all along and
      that may be high. ๐Ÿ™‚

  86. Well it looks like tomorrow is the storm that was NEVER meant to be in the first place.
    NAMS and GFS around 3 inches give or take. RAP and HRRR and RDPS more like
    1 inch perhaps an inch and 1/2. Looks like another LOSER. Oh well, at least Monday is looking like mostly if not all snow, but still not all that much. Something like 6-8 inches.
    And that would be a BONANZA this Winter.

    Will probably be up early to monitor the snow or lack thereof….

    Cheers and have a good night.

  88. Even when it looks good, it turns out BAD around these parts. Just the kind of
    Winter it has been.

    1. Too many people focusing on model #’s and not the weather pattern. JMA, WxW, and I have been driving the point home about the pattern. Yes it is better for snow than it was, but it’s not a perfect snow pattern.

  89. How the hell do we go from possibly having 6 inch plus for 2 storms especially the second one to having 6 inches probably as a total for both. This sucks. All that excitement for nothing. Nothing special just another crappy 4 to 5 inch storm

    1. Because there is too much reliance on model numbers and not enough attention paid to the actual weather. ๐Ÿ™‚

    2. Location . Pembroke where I reside is looking at 6+ tonight & Boston tonight between 4-5 inches . Letโ€™s worry about Sunday night tomorrow night . Iโ€™m in the city waiting for first flakes

      1. I’m not waiting until after tomorrow to talk about the second system. ๐Ÿ˜‰ I’ve already written tomorrow’s blog update. Just haven’t sent it yet. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        First flakes in Boston around 5AM.

      2. I also don’t think your area is going to get over 6 with this. I’d be surprised if anybody goes over 6 down there.

  90. Gfs has a total of not even 6 inches for BOTH storms for my area lol. What a joke. I am more impressed than disappointed of how bad luck this is lol. I think I jinxed it yesterday with my comment lol

          1. No. There is no fizzle going on. The start time was “pre-dawn”. 5-6AM is pre-dawn.

              1. Yes, I know. And the maps he posted were slight forecast adjustments. The problem is most of the initial #’s were probably a little too high. I had said that several times previously. So it’s not so much a storm fizzle as a forecast being made to fit what’s more likely to happen. I even scaled mine back slightly from my initial broadbrush, so I could focus the 3-6 area to where I think it’s most likely. I don’t think many people go over 3 inches with this one.

      2. Based on the latest NAM, HRRR, and radar you are looking at closer to 5 or 6 AM for the start of snow in Boston

    1. That’s probably the upper limit of what the potential is. I’d bet the majority of the region for both storms together will be 4-8 inches.

  93. Radar showing precipitation over outer Cape but not sure if anything is reaching the ground.

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