Globally the picture is as mixed as ever, with many nations that had previously been mostly spared from Covid-19 now seeing significant increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. This includes Mongolia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, and Uganda. Even places that had previously been nearly Covid-free are seeing modest increases in cases. For example, Greenland.
India’s acute crisis is receding, though daily deaths are in the thousands. Across Asia outbreaks have been impacting Malaysia, Nepal, Japan, and Thailand, among other countries. The worst of this wave appears to be over, but there’s still a considerable caseload in these nations. Taiwan seems to be flattening the curve through a nationwide stay-at-home order.
U.K. appears to be bending the case curve. Still growing, to be sure, but not exponentially. Let’s hope this continues. Hospitalizations are increasing steadily. Europe is in gradual decline in many places, and exponential decline in a few.
South America is on a horrific plateau. No discernible decline yet. Africa is in ascent, unfortunately.
The U.S. is on a plateau of around 13 to 14,000 daily (new) cases. Test positivity is down to between 1.5% and 2% nationwide. Hospitalizations continue a steady decrease. Still seeing around 350-400 deaths a day (7-day moving average). This surprises me a little, as the case fatality rate has actually worsened in the past 6 weeks. Not sure why. Some of it could be the lag in reporting, though nowadays deaths reporting is not as delayed as it used to be, in part because there are fewer of them to report.
How is Antarctica doing? Last year this time, it was the last place on earth that was Covid-free.
Last I checked Antarctica had cases from an Argentinian and Chilean crew of researchers. I think these have resolved and I can’t find any reports of more cases at, say, the Amundsen base (South Pole).
Mass cases continue to fall…wondering when our first day of zero new cases reported will be. Sometime this summer?
It will be a day to truly celebrate.
At least we have seen zero new deaths. Don’t know about today specifically.
I will really be able to celebrate when masks will be gone from all public transportation (MBTA).
It’s hard to know why Chile is having such trouble containing the virus. It’s a very highly vaccinated country, as a high a percentage as ours. Must have to do with the kinds of vaccines Chile deploys, although that can’t explain it entirely, as the vaccines Chile uses are certainly not terrible. Let’s say they’re 75-80% effective, compared to 90-95% with Pfizer. The relatively small difference in efficacy doesn’t explain what’s going on. https://www.dw.com/en/chile-fresh-curfews-despite-vaccination-program-success/a-57890946
As a reminder, the R0 is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population. You want that number to be as low as possible. Anything under 1 means the virus is not expanding. Above 1 implies expansion. Since last week the R0 in the U.S. has increased slightly. It’s still below 1 but we need it to stay that way.
Before we celebrate a victory over Covid-19 it’s important to note that the current wildcard – Delta variant – can wreak some havoc. Though limited in its ability to do damage because of the vaccines, new variants have already caused ripples or waves (hence the UK variant or B.1.1.7/Alpha ripple in the U.S. and wave in other parts of the world). It’s estimated that in the U.S. alone as a result of the Alpha variant tens of thousands of additional lives were lost, especially in states like Michigan, but others, too, including Massachusetts (in February and March). The Delta variant is even more infectious and more virulent. The good news is that a higher percentage of the population is fully vaccinated. The bad news is that there are >100 million unvaccinated and ~30 million 1-dose folks. Let’s say that 50% of these people are not susceptible because they had Covid-19. This still leaves a sizable portion of the population at risk. The Northeast seems well protected, but don’t rule out an attempt at a comeback even if the Delta variant can only score a field goal. The Southeast and Southwest, on the other hand, are definitely vulnerable to a more vigorous comeback with a touchdown or 2.
To clarify, “not expanding” does not mean zero cases, it simply means that the growth rate in daily new cases is no longer positive.
Just so you know the R0’s in practically all of South America and parts of Caribbean are well above 1. In Russia the R0 is above 1, as is the case in many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
Epidemiologists, but also market analysts, tend to use the R0 as a gauge for future development of viral spread. I’ve been reading about market analysts expressing concern that the R0 in France and Ireland, for example, may be about to rebound as the Delta variant finds roots in those countries.
While things are going much better in NYC than before, it’s notable that the 135 reported deaths in NYC in the past 14 days is roughly the same as the entire UK over that period. The UK has 66 million people, NYC 8, perhaps 10 at the most. This is an under-reported phenomenon, namely, our healthcare system is not faring nearly as well as it ought to. I mentioned this earlier. Our case fatality rate is getting worse, not better. This needs to be investigated. https://twitter.com/OrchidNYC/status/1404823319266959361/photo/1
C-19 for 6-16 is ready.
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Globally the picture is as mixed as ever, with many nations that had previously been mostly spared from Covid-19 now seeing significant increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. This includes Mongolia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, and Uganda. Even places that had previously been nearly Covid-free are seeing modest increases in cases. For example, Greenland.
India’s acute crisis is receding, though daily deaths are in the thousands. Across Asia outbreaks have been impacting Malaysia, Nepal, Japan, and Thailand, among other countries. The worst of this wave appears to be over, but there’s still a considerable caseload in these nations. Taiwan seems to be flattening the curve through a nationwide stay-at-home order.
U.K. appears to be bending the case curve. Still growing, to be sure, but not exponentially. Let’s hope this continues. Hospitalizations are increasing steadily. Europe is in gradual decline in many places, and exponential decline in a few.
South America is on a horrific plateau. No discernible decline yet. Africa is in ascent, unfortunately.
The U.S. is on a plateau of around 13 to 14,000 daily (new) cases. Test positivity is down to between 1.5% and 2% nationwide. Hospitalizations continue a steady decrease. Still seeing around 350-400 deaths a day (7-day moving average). This surprises me a little, as the case fatality rate has actually worsened in the past 6 weeks. Not sure why. Some of it could be the lag in reporting, though nowadays deaths reporting is not as delayed as it used to be, in part because there are fewer of them to report.
How is Antarctica doing? Last year this time, it was the last place on earth that was Covid-free.
Last I checked Antarctica had cases from an Argentinian and Chilean crew of researchers. I think these have resolved and I can’t find any reports of more cases at, say, the Amundsen base (South Pole).
Mass cases continue to fall…wondering when our first day of zero new cases reported will be. Sometime this summer?
It will be a day to truly celebrate.
At least we have seen zero new deaths. Don’t know about today specifically.
I will really be able to celebrate when masks will be gone from all public transportation (MBTA).
It’s hard to know why Chile is having such trouble containing the virus. It’s a very highly vaccinated country, as a high a percentage as ours. Must have to do with the kinds of vaccines Chile deploys, although that can’t explain it entirely, as the vaccines Chile uses are certainly not terrible. Let’s say they’re 75-80% effective, compared to 90-95% with Pfizer. The relatively small difference in efficacy doesn’t explain what’s going on. https://www.dw.com/en/chile-fresh-curfews-despite-vaccination-program-success/a-57890946
Here’s a selection of the very latest R0 numbers:
UK: 1.36
US: 0.89
Japan: 0.70
Italy: 0.69
France: 0.67
Canada: 0.64
Germany: 0.61
As a reminder, the R0 is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population. You want that number to be as low as possible. Anything under 1 means the virus is not expanding. Above 1 implies expansion. Since last week the R0 in the U.S. has increased slightly. It’s still below 1 but we need it to stay that way.
Before we celebrate a victory over Covid-19 it’s important to note that the current wildcard – Delta variant – can wreak some havoc. Though limited in its ability to do damage because of the vaccines, new variants have already caused ripples or waves (hence the UK variant or B.1.1.7/Alpha ripple in the U.S. and wave in other parts of the world). It’s estimated that in the U.S. alone as a result of the Alpha variant tens of thousands of additional lives were lost, especially in states like Michigan, but others, too, including Massachusetts (in February and March). The Delta variant is even more infectious and more virulent. The good news is that a higher percentage of the population is fully vaccinated. The bad news is that there are >100 million unvaccinated and ~30 million 1-dose folks. Let’s say that 50% of these people are not susceptible because they had Covid-19. This still leaves a sizable portion of the population at risk. The Northeast seems well protected, but don’t rule out an attempt at a comeback even if the Delta variant can only score a field goal. The Southeast and Southwest, on the other hand, are definitely vulnerable to a more vigorous comeback with a touchdown or 2.
To clarify, “not expanding” does not mean zero cases, it simply means that the growth rate in daily new cases is no longer positive.
Just so you know the R0’s in practically all of South America and parts of Caribbean are well above 1. In Russia the R0 is above 1, as is the case in many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
Epidemiologists, but also market analysts, tend to use the R0 as a gauge for future development of viral spread. I’ve been reading about market analysts expressing concern that the R0 in France and Ireland, for example, may be about to rebound as the Delta variant finds roots in those countries.
While things are going much better in NYC than before, it’s notable that the 135 reported deaths in NYC in the past 14 days is roughly the same as the entire UK over that period. The UK has 66 million people, NYC 8, perhaps 10 at the most. This is an under-reported phenomenon, namely, our healthcare system is not faring nearly as well as it ought to. I mentioned this earlier. Our case fatality rate is getting worse, not better. This needs to be investigated. https://twitter.com/OrchidNYC/status/1404823319266959361/photo/1
C-19 for 6-16 is ready.