Monday August 23 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)

152 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

We’re not quite done with Henri yet. The system itself had its final advisory issued by NHC and is a tropical depression, stationary over eastern NY State. Over the next few hours the remaining low pressure system, along with an upper low, will start to move eastward and will cross our region during the course of today and this evening. It will bring episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, some of which may be on the heavy side, with even the threat of some severe weather (damaging wind gusts biggest threat). Finally, this exits overnight and then we have 3 days of very warm to hot and humid summer weather Tuesday-Thursday as high pressure moves in. The timing of the next system, a cold front, looks like it will be early Friday as it crosses the region with a chance of showers, and the arrival of a less humid air mass, but may need to tweak that timing as the week goes on.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible. Damaging wind gusts are possible in any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91. Dew point upper 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

High pressure builds in from eastern Canada with a fair and dry August 28-29 weekend, then sinks off to the south with warmer and more humid weather August 30-31. Frontal system may bring a few showers by September 1.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure should bring mainly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures with one interruption later in the period from a frontal boundary bringing higher humidity and a chance of showers.

152 thoughts on “Monday August 23 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  7. Glad we missed most of the damaging winds down here in Warwick I’m near TF Green. Hopefully everyone stocked up on storm supplies for the next threat that hopefully never materializes.

    1. Thanks Doc. I agree 100% on the high humidity!!!!

      It seems like dew points have been above 70 for weeks!

      I have HAD IT!)@(#(&!@()#&*!@&#)!@)(*#)(!*#)(!)*#@

      It was so humid in the house yesterday, we had to run ACs even though it was only in the low 70s outside.

      1. Ugggh yeah sorry about that. Channel 25’s graphic has been stuck on jun 23rd in the app. I totally forgot. I’ve been having to record it from tv.

  11. I could be very wrong, but looks like some weak rotation in the cell, over the ocean, moving towards Portsmouth, NH

      1. My brain (or, whatever is left of it 🙂 ) is always two lines ahead of my typing fingers. 🙂

        At least with the Boston 25 forecast, we’re only two days away from the weekend! 🙂

        Thanks, TK!

    3. I saw it right away but didn’t want to hassle you . Tk do you think it will be dry In Boston tomorrow am 3-7

    4. That’s ok. Unless my small screen is covering something, ch 5 started with Thursday

      It does seem as if it is Tuesday

  13. Thank you, TK.

    I’m done with the humidity, too, and echo Dr. S and JPD’s comments. It’s getting to me. Not that it’s been that excessive, but it has been very persistent. I know this is a common feature in summer in most of the Lower 48, so I should simply accept it. But, as I age I cannot handle it like I used to.

      1. Back in my day, we would have occasional nice, cool air from Canada during most summers. No more it seems. 🙁

        “Summer Polar Air” (courtesy of Don Kent). Oh well. 🙂

  14. Thanks TK!

    TK – How close to SNE did Henri get before the downgrade to a tropical storm? How many miles away?

    Hurricane Bob (8/19/1991) is still the King of SNE landfall! 🙂

  16. I noticed according to 25, Sunday through next Wednesday will be on the hot side. So what else is new?

    Where did this week go to already? It seems that when I woke up just this morning it was only “Monday”. 😉

    1. 2nd statement on list.

      I have no confidence in reading a dollar radar, but I feel like I’ve seen a tiny green/red couplet.

            1. See JJ below.

              Yes, for what I had blogged about before, it was best down by northern RI, but it seems to have perked up again as mentioned below by JJ.

  18. Special Weather Statement for a strong thunderstorm over Westborough moving north at 15. The statement goes on to say this storm may produce funnel clouds.

  19. This small cell has been strengthening-weakening-strengthening- etc for a while. It’s the same one getting the same special weather statement that had one earlier.

  22. Tiny couplets.

    I’m guessing, but based on the size of the couplets, which are really small, if something is ever reaching the ground, my head visualizes that tiny vortex that went by Mike Bettes in Naples, FL when he was live during Irma.

  23. Awful story out of Tennessee, while we were dealing with on Henri. One county had 17 inches of rain in one day. 21 dead and over 30 still missing from the flash flooding. The pictures of the damage are horrible.

    1. Close your eyes and hope it goes away.

      Seriously, I am not sure. If it were I, I would pull over and look at my Radar Scope to see where the couplet was in relation to my location and act accordingly.

      1. Me too.

        If one ever had to, I think it’s to find the lowest place on the side of the road, lie down I believe, cover your head. Don’t take shelter under those corners of a bridge.

        Please correct if this is wrong.

      2. Tx. Hopefully I’ll have service. I’m following as I can here and RadarScope

        We just went thru greenfield on rt 2

  27. I wouldn’t rule out a tornado warning on that cell you mentioned. A lot of low level wind shear out there today.

  29. My velocity screen on Radar Scope doesn’t seem to be working
    too well today as I continue to see nothing.

    1. I am also looking at my NEXARD storm relative mean velocity
      display and still NOT seeing anything.

      These must be so small, they must be seeing it with something
      else.

  33. Again, I don’t have confidence reading/interpreting a dollar radar.

    North northeast of Marlborough looks like the tightest couplet to me. But, the warning of where the tornado is confirmed on the ground is way, way more important.

  34. I think these cells are behaving this way because they are separated and rather isolated and also are located in an area where the visible satellite seems to indicate some partial sun has developed.

  36. Eric Fisher has a tweet from about 10 minutes with a video that probably will confirm a weak tornado/vortice on the ground.

    1. Good news. Eric said might b a couple of hrs before we see more activity. He was not specific about def of activity

      1. The sun has been out in my area for the past couple of hours so it is contributing to destabilizing the atmosphere.

  41. Hard to keep up with these tornado warnings popping up. Looking on radar and there’s not much to look at.

      1. The old fashioned way. Quote by Tom Lehrer : “Bad weather always looks worse through a window.”

  43. Problem with those photos is that they are not videos. Can’t see rotation. I Have to assume it was there, but I’d prefer a video.

    Pretty awesome photos just the same.

  44. I have a theory regarding humidity tolerance. I run a slight temperature on warm/hot and humid days in summer and often feel out of it. Need lots of caffeine to get through the day. Body cannot adapt, though it used to many moons ago. Never have a temperature in winter. In fact, body temperature is much more stable (fluctuates a lot in summer). I think some human bodies can adapt better to cold than heat/warmth and humidity. Others, vice versa. Generally, the people who like heat and humidity don’t like cold, and vice versa (might not `like’ the cold, but don’t mind it as much as HH). Body adaptation may explain it

    1. Odd and interesting . By afternoon, I can have a very low grade fever. My normal is 97.5 or either side of it. I never heard anyone else say this.

      1. I have always thought I was dehydrated. A couple of My grandkids can spike a bit if a fever on hot days also which their parents attributed to the same. But you may be in to something re intolerance

        1. I don’t know. I do drink a lot of water, but perhaps I could drink more. Human bodies are amazing temperature regulators. But, things can go a bit awry.

  45. TK. The bigger area of rain seems to be moderate but not too heavy. Are you still thinking some places might get 1 inch plus?

  47. Don’t see a mixture of sun and fog at the same time very often. Today, on my run, I noticed some of the tall buildings in Boston were enveloped by fog. Meanwhile it was sunny where I was running.

    1. That is morally wrong. They have to do better than that. They can’t issue those by county. There must be a better way. If you current phone location is not in the path or cone then no warning.
      Don;t know how they are gig to ping all of the phones. But there must be something better.

      1. It would have to be something like this….
        When one signs up for the app, they agree to allow the app to know current location.

        Softare at warning facility now has all current location of those who signed up for the app. Now they can broadcast the Warning ONLY to those phones in the path.

        1. It appeared on the app that came with my phone — no sign-up involved — but happily no audio alert, since it was definitely not for Arlington/Lexington!
          I make sure to read the fine print…

          1. I think most do not as several were surprised they did not receive a warning in their phone. One person in Sutton did. Yikes

          2. I just go to the radar I’d I get a warning. But then it is a radar I have that generates the warning . 🙂 🙂 🙂

  49. I did get a phone warning last week for the one around Revere that was traveling north. Huh?!
    (That’s better than not getting one when it’s needed, as the Connecticut editorial pointed out.)

  52. Thanks TK.

    The general thinking (here and especially elsewhere) seems to be that Henri was a dud in SNE. I can’t really argue that. It under-performed pretty much across the board. Which is a good thing of course! A couple reasons for this, one big one which should’ve been very obvious beforehand, one big one which was good fortune, and two smaller ones that were also good fortune.

    1 (big one). Henri was decelerating on arrival. We really should’ve known this would greatly limit the impacts. All of the historically impactful hurricanes in SNE are accelerating storms. This was never going to rival “the big ones”, but the fact that it was decelerating rather than accelerating was the difference between what would’ve been a pretty solid impact and what turned out to be a very run of the mill rainy/windy day.

    2 (big one). It didn’t intensify (much) despite 24-36 hours in a favorable environment. We don’t necessarily know why, but it didn’t, and that was very fortunate. Had it peaked as a strong Cat 1/Cat 2, impacts would’ve been considerably worse.

    3 (smaller one). Peak surge near low tide – it still wouldn’t have been a bad surge event, but this helped.

    4 (smaller one). Eastern track wobble – impacts as a whole would’ve been worse due to the more impactful track for CT/NYC – those areas were basically spared entirely.

    SNE will get another big one someday. Hopefully this case doesn’t excessively erode trust in future hurricane forecasts. Some damage (to trust) has been done, but I don’t think it’s unrecoverable. We just have to be more careful about messaging storms that are impactful, but not “big one” impactful.

    Ironically, the area that got the worst of Henri was north/central New Jersey and the PA Pocono region – far removed from the storm track. But some extreme rainfall totals and significant flooding occurred in those areas.

    1. Thank you, WxW.

      I cannot recall the storm. We were at Humarock and came home a day early. I think it was Todd Gutner who headed for Nantucket to be the weather reporter on the spot. He had never experienced a hurricane. Clearly, I’m struggling to recall information and maybe someone here can help. The storm was a miss

      Folks have very short memories. I do think it is recoverable. And remember (4)……guidance from a special Angel whose son was married last weekend

      1. 🙂

        Earl in 2010 perhaps?

        And you’re right, people do have short memories, and I think that when the real deal arrives, it will be taken seriously.

          1. Yup, Earl was close. We had a late August heatwave as I recall and an approaching cool front helped nudge it east.

            1. Was it Todd? There was a huge deal with cameras following him to Nantucket. I remember him being so excited and felt sad for him when it never hit

  53. Looking ahead …..

    With the remnants of Fred and the rains of Henri, this will serve to continue to keep our streams and rivers at a higher than normal flow, for this time of year.

    Will be interesting to watch the next 4-8 weeks with the tropics.

    Signals are there for more activity and the northeast can have issues, even with a gulf coast land falling hurricane that sends its moisture or remnants into a northern stream system, that eventually passes through New England.

  55. I am in the heavy downpour on the west side of that. 2.79 in per hour rate right now. Luckily it is moving!

  56. I drove back to Marshfield tonight from Maine to work in my classroom the next few days.

    Maine was really humid, but coolish/mild.

    I hit close to Rte 1, the fog disappeared and the temp on the truck jumped 5F to 73F. Then, from Boston to Marshfield, it was 77F/78F about 90 minutes ago.

    So, I´m not surprised there are these intensifying small cells down here, as there´s definitely a little more warmth for them to tap into. Quite a cell southeast of Newport and here, we keep getting waves of torrential downpours.

  57. I´ll be happy when this is off the coast.

    Little boundary in eastern Mass, east wind at Boston and Beverly and Bedford and generally SSE wind on south shore and Cape/Islands.

  59. Looks like we’re going be under a huge slug of rain coming up from Somerset within about 15 minutes!

    2. sure does. Some of the same towns getting hit back to back. I´m a little surprised there is no flood warning or flash flood warning.

      1. We have a sump pump and backups. I just checked. It’s quiet and dry. Thanks for asking! 🙂

  61. Absolutely pouring. Heard and seen this kind of heavy rain about a dozen times since June 30th. Pretty remarkable stretch, although August has been much dryer than July.

  62. With every passing minute, I get more and more surprised that there are no flood statements around the big 2 SE Mass cells and maybe even the immediate Boston area.

    1. Diminishing in intensity a bit, but still raining.

      Thankfully, the big project was just completed; replacing the old pipes. Looks like the courtyard and trash area are not flooding, which is good news. There are puddles, but that’s normal.

  63. Its been quite fascinating watching the radar and dopplar last 45 minutes.

    The heavy rain just looped backwards into Boston …… the north side of what looks like a meso-low and on dopplar, something got pinched off around Hanson and moved towards Randolph and it was a small ball of air headed towards the radar while surrounded by air moving away from the radar.

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