I saw on the Boston 25 news last night that with the original Covid-19, herd immunity could be reached with 70% vaccination rates but now with the Delta variant, herd immunity can only be reached at 90+% vaccination rates.
With low vaccination rates as it is, the concern is that we may never reach herd immunity with the Delta variant, at least not anytime soon.
Joshua, your thoughts? I didn’t make note of the doctor that was giving his opinion on herd immunity.
I saw a Harvard epidemiologist say that with delta herd immunity cannot be achieved.
I’ve also read many times that herd immunity cannot be achieved. Flu herd immunity sure has not been.
Dear Lord. More and more I am hearing that people saying that those who are not vaccinated should be denied hospital treatment. What has happened to us?
I have also been hearing suggestions that unvaccinated patients be denied portions of their insurance coverage.
Does that refer to all treatments or just covid?
Honestly, I have no issue if it were just covid. I have an issue If it is all treatment. With limited resources, treat for covid the vaccinated first. At leas they did the right thing.
Denial of treatment on any front would be a bridge too far in my mind. But I do think in areas that are hardest hit they should set up temporary hospitals like other countries did specifically for COVID positive patients.
I definitely agree and like your idea of setting up temporary hospitals.
Regarding herd immunity – that ship quietly sailed long ago. It’s essentially why scientists even near the start postulated that covid might be with us for good like the flu is. It’s a matter of a dominant variant being the victor and us just having yearly booster shots. I wouldn’t stress too much on the thought of herd immunity and would just put more mind on keeping up with any recommended boosters and trusting the science. When the spike is headed up, we stay away from people. When the curve is flat or near there – resume life as normal and only wear a mask if you feel unsafe. I think places like China and Japan have had mask usage correctly for a century now. Whenever you feel so much as a sniffle, put on a mask. We’d be the better for it.
Another thought: some interesting tech coming out that I can’t wait for. I, for one, can’t wait for Razer’s Project Zephyr which promises to have amazing filtration – something the market is sorely lacking and could aid more prone people into feeling safe going outside again in various situations. Not just for viral outbreaks but also in the ever increasing fire seasons. https://www.razer.com/campaigns/road-to-zephyr
Fascinating. I’ll share the last paragraph for sure. Also, your last sentence of the first paragraph. ABSOLUTELY
Well, AFAIC we need to get to some sort of “herd immunity”. I am really getting sick and tired of wearing a mask everywhere I go, including sitting at my desk at work for 8 hours per day, even though I am pretty much by myself. It’s now been 18+ months, correct? According to Dr. Fauci, it now loooks like spring 2022 before we “may” get out of this pandemic.
I am fully vaccinated and will soon get my booster, but…when will it truly end??
My rant.
I am looking forward to the day when I can go out in public and go inside the building where I work and actually see my coworkers and other people’s faces from the nose down. All I ever see is two eyes staring at me.
My rant over (for now).
Philip we all need to rant. These are difficult times and somehow we have to let the steam out. I like to think of or at least hope that this is a safe place to rent because there is mutual respect.
Allow me to lay it out for you as I see it and as I have seen it since near the start of the pandemic (I could probably go back and find some similar stuff I’ve typed):
The 1918 flu epidemic lasted about two and a half to three years in total. We fought with antimaskers and antivaxxers in such a similar fashion it’s laughable. You’d think with advancements in science that we’d be a smarter nation. To paraphrase George Carlin though: think of the dumbest person you know and realize that half of the population is even dumber than that. We were always going to face resistance. But the internet has bred far more resistance than would have existed (but make no mistake it would have existed like all the times previous.) So, essentially, a similar timeline applies for covid that applied for the 1918 pandemic. Two and a half to three years. Because even though we were able to get a vaccine out faster, the amount of hesitant people (and the overall population vs the more sparse population of 1918) has only blossomed.
But – if you are scientific minded you’ll know that the medicines are constantly being researched and worked upon. After you get your booster and when the curve is flatter there is no reason why you can’t go back to normal as some have done in a piecemeal fashion before having to revert because the curve has gone up. Cold and flu season is coming. Let’s see how we fare and go from there. I think the vaccinated will have a reprieve come early spring as we hit a sort of two year mark.
Thanks, Dr. S. Appreciate your comment.
Great comment.
Do you see a variant(s) that is even better at evading the vaccines? That tends to stay in the back of my mind.
We are at a point with science where we can always manufacture something that can kill any evolved variant. It’s far far less a concern of “can we eradicate this variant” and more of a “can we get healthy science minded people to consistently get booster shots?” concern as quarantine fatigue gets deeper.
Makes absolute sense to me. Thanks
As a nation we’re peaking this week. But, that does NOT mean the wave is over. Past peak will still mean a lot more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Moreover, as we see in the UK, France, and elsewhere the Delta wave sticks around. It’s so transmissible that the plateau where these countries have settled is quite high.
The UK had 174 deaths today; France 153. In previous waves these numbers would have been significantly higher. Nevertheless, this is a high death toll. And with hospitalizations rising in both countries, it’s like there’s continuous pressure on the healthcare system.
Not as bad as here, though. More than 1,300 deaths today. The reopening of schools will probably reinvigorate the virus. I’m not saying schools should be closed, by the way. I’m just stating a fact. We see this playing out in the UK.
Waning immunity is a definite issue. The deaths among the vaccinated are occurring almost exclusively among those who were vaccinated more than 6 months ago. Note, it’s MUCH more likely to die if you’re unvaccinated than vaccinated.
I won’t be posting a lot this week, as I’ve got several deadlines to meet.
Thank you, Joshua.
I’ve pretty much given up on logic when it comes to schools….absolutely not from you. Yes, there should be in-school for those who choose it. Based on your comment alone, forcing those who do not want their children in person, most for very valid reasons that don’t seem to matter, is reprehensible.
Re schools and peaking: yeah, cold and flu season hasn’t even begun yet. It always ramps up because of the multi punch combo of the season beginning to change and the petri dishes known as schools, day cares, fall and winter events (many large indoor gatherings.) This year will be no different and with the mixture of unvaccinated and the misinformation making vaccinated people feel invincible… ugh. That’s all I’ll say.
I saw on the Boston 25 news last night that with the original Covid-19, herd immunity could be reached with 70% vaccination rates but now with the Delta variant, herd immunity can only be reached at 90+% vaccination rates.
With low vaccination rates as it is, the concern is that we may never reach herd immunity with the Delta variant, at least not anytime soon.
Joshua, your thoughts? I didn’t make note of the doctor that was giving his opinion on herd immunity.
I saw a Harvard epidemiologist say that with delta herd immunity cannot be achieved.
I’ve also read many times that herd immunity cannot be achieved. Flu herd immunity sure has not been.
Dear Lord. More and more I am hearing that people saying that those who are not vaccinated should be denied hospital treatment. What has happened to us?
I have also been hearing suggestions that unvaccinated patients be denied portions of their insurance coverage.
Does that refer to all treatments or just covid?
Honestly, I have no issue if it were just covid. I have an issue If it is all treatment. With limited resources, treat for covid the vaccinated first. At leas they did the right thing.
Denial of treatment on any front would be a bridge too far in my mind. But I do think in areas that are hardest hit they should set up temporary hospitals like other countries did specifically for COVID positive patients.
I definitely agree and like your idea of setting up temporary hospitals.
Regarding herd immunity – that ship quietly sailed long ago. It’s essentially why scientists even near the start postulated that covid might be with us for good like the flu is. It’s a matter of a dominant variant being the victor and us just having yearly booster shots. I wouldn’t stress too much on the thought of herd immunity and would just put more mind on keeping up with any recommended boosters and trusting the science. When the spike is headed up, we stay away from people. When the curve is flat or near there – resume life as normal and only wear a mask if you feel unsafe. I think places like China and Japan have had mask usage correctly for a century now. Whenever you feel so much as a sniffle, put on a mask. We’d be the better for it.
Another thought: some interesting tech coming out that I can’t wait for. I, for one, can’t wait for Razer’s Project Zephyr which promises to have amazing filtration – something the market is sorely lacking and could aid more prone people into feeling safe going outside again in various situations. Not just for viral outbreaks but also in the ever increasing fire seasons. https://www.razer.com/campaigns/road-to-zephyr
Fascinating. I’ll share the last paragraph for sure. Also, your last sentence of the first paragraph. ABSOLUTELY
Well, AFAIC we need to get to some sort of “herd immunity”. I am really getting sick and tired of wearing a mask everywhere I go, including sitting at my desk at work for 8 hours per day, even though I am pretty much by myself. It’s now been 18+ months, correct? According to Dr. Fauci, it now loooks like spring 2022 before we “may” get out of this pandemic.
I am fully vaccinated and will soon get my booster, but…when will it truly end??
My rant.
I am looking forward to the day when I can go out in public and go inside the building where I work and actually see my coworkers and other people’s faces from the nose down. All I ever see is two eyes staring at me.
My rant over (for now).
Philip we all need to rant. These are difficult times and somehow we have to let the steam out. I like to think of or at least hope that this is a safe place to rent because there is mutual respect.
Allow me to lay it out for you as I see it and as I have seen it since near the start of the pandemic (I could probably go back and find some similar stuff I’ve typed):
The 1918 flu epidemic lasted about two and a half to three years in total. We fought with antimaskers and antivaxxers in such a similar fashion it’s laughable. You’d think with advancements in science that we’d be a smarter nation. To paraphrase George Carlin though: think of the dumbest person you know and realize that half of the population is even dumber than that. We were always going to face resistance. But the internet has bred far more resistance than would have existed (but make no mistake it would have existed like all the times previous.) So, essentially, a similar timeline applies for covid that applied for the 1918 pandemic. Two and a half to three years. Because even though we were able to get a vaccine out faster, the amount of hesitant people (and the overall population vs the more sparse population of 1918) has only blossomed.
But – if you are scientific minded you’ll know that the medicines are constantly being researched and worked upon. After you get your booster and when the curve is flatter there is no reason why you can’t go back to normal as some have done in a piecemeal fashion before having to revert because the curve has gone up. Cold and flu season is coming. Let’s see how we fare and go from there. I think the vaccinated will have a reprieve come early spring as we hit a sort of two year mark.
Thanks, Dr. S. Appreciate your comment.
Great comment.
Do you see a variant(s) that is even better at evading the vaccines? That tends to stay in the back of my mind.
We are at a point with science where we can always manufacture something that can kill any evolved variant. It’s far far less a concern of “can we eradicate this variant” and more of a “can we get healthy science minded people to consistently get booster shots?” concern as quarantine fatigue gets deeper.
Makes absolute sense to me. Thanks
As a nation we’re peaking this week. But, that does NOT mean the wave is over. Past peak will still mean a lot more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Moreover, as we see in the UK, France, and elsewhere the Delta wave sticks around. It’s so transmissible that the plateau where these countries have settled is quite high.
The UK had 174 deaths today; France 153. In previous waves these numbers would have been significantly higher. Nevertheless, this is a high death toll. And with hospitalizations rising in both countries, it’s like there’s continuous pressure on the healthcare system.
Not as bad as here, though. More than 1,300 deaths today. The reopening of schools will probably reinvigorate the virus. I’m not saying schools should be closed, by the way. I’m just stating a fact. We see this playing out in the UK.
Waning immunity is a definite issue. The deaths among the vaccinated are occurring almost exclusively among those who were vaccinated more than 6 months ago. Note, it’s MUCH more likely to die if you’re unvaccinated than vaccinated.
I won’t be posting a lot this week, as I’ve got several deadlines to meet.
Thank you, Joshua.
I’ve pretty much given up on logic when it comes to schools….absolutely not from you. Yes, there should be in-school for those who choose it. Based on your comment alone, forcing those who do not want their children in person, most for very valid reasons that don’t seem to matter, is reprehensible.
Re schools and peaking: yeah, cold and flu season hasn’t even begun yet. It always ramps up because of the multi punch combo of the season beginning to change and the petri dishes known as schools, day cares, fall and winter events (many large indoor gatherings.) This year will be no different and with the mixture of unvaccinated and the misinformation making vaccinated people feel invincible… ugh. That’s all I’ll say.
Yes !
Shoddy data like this is why we need boosters now and not later: https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1430227401506582539?s=21
Agree. And this ranking suggests that, too. Look who’s the `odd’ one in the ranking; Israel: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1430362071535738884
I noticed a comment that said Israel does a lot more testing. Wonder if that is why it is on the list. Some US states do not report
This is a bit worrisome re boosters sooner than 8 months
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/why-shouldnt-rush-covid-19-151645912.html
C-19 for 8-25 is ready.