Seasonably Chilly But Dry Weekend

113 Comments

4:27PM

High pressure will control the weather much of the time this weekend and at least during the first half of next week. Only a few weak disturbances and frontal systems will cross the region but they will be good for periods of clouds rather than any significant precipitation.

The only significant change in the forecast that I can see through the next 5 days are to bring a cold front in a little more quickly Monday night or early Tuesday of next week, keeping the warm-up a little shorter-lived and bringing a return to seasonable cold a little faster than I indicated yesterday.

Looking way out, I’m feeling the need to mention that there are a few hints of potential storminess at the very end of next week, but the way this winter has gone, not going to hold my breath.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east early then depart before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low 17-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing to near calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny early then mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind NNW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 46.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 40 (falling temps PM).

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 40.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 36.

113 thoughts on “Seasonably Chilly But Dry Weekend”

      1. Just had my nails done 🙂 My excitement for the day. How’s the hand and did you get it checked and can you take another week – i Hope!

        1. Hand is ok. Yes went back and saw the same NP today and she said hand is more swollen this week than last week. No break though. I see her again on the 14th and no work till than. She wants me to take the splint on and off for next week. Work wants me to come in tuesday to have some doctor from BI look at it. So I will.

  3. Thanks TK!!

    Pete b was hinting that he thinks things are changing come next Friday and beyond. Let’s see what happens towards the middle and end of the month.

      1. Don’t like the 500-1000MB thickness here. If this were to happen, TOO WARM, but it is a long way off. Perhaps it
        WILL be colder. In anycase, we have ourselves a STORM!!
        And for this Winter, that is something in and of itself. 🙂

            1. Nah, I know what it is. Could change with each and every run. I just enjoy watching the runs. If I drive anyone
              nuts with too many links, just speak up
              and I’ll stop.

              GO PATS!!! Off for now.

    1. I hope its your first idea Vicki………I think the Pats have to try to run on the Giants first, especially with Ben Jarvis. Make the Giants pass rush have to honor the run, so that they just arent fully pass-rushing Brady.

  7. Thanks TK !! Cold day, but a nice sunny day. As long as Monday the 13th is storm free to let my family travel, I hope to see a change to a more active pattern mid month.

    Its finally Super Bowl weekend. 🙂

  8. Sorry to be a buzz-kill but I’ll buy into a storm when my boots have snow in them. Trend is your friend. ( or not in our case)

  9. Remember back in the 80’s when the Super Bowl was in early January? I will never forget the Super Bowl Sunday which was the day before classes started at Clarkson College (now Clarkson U.) in Potsdam, NY (motto: Where Winter spends its Spring). We were all standing in a huge line outside, waiting for registration. On that day, I was about as cold as I have ever been.

  10. I was born in the mid 80s so I don’t remember the Super Bowl in early January. I remember it being played the last Sunday in January until 9/11 when it was moved to the 1st Sunday in February and has remained that was since then. I am not a Patroits fan or a Giants fan. I just hope for a great game.

    2. Hi John – I don’t think he’s pasting – I am more inclined to think some troll is hitting the report button and his posts are auto removed until they are checked – but who knows.

    1. Jimmy, I was very surprised to know that. I figured that foot of snow they got was just another typical February day. I believe Denver normally gets a good 60″+ of snow per winter.

  14. Hey John…BaileyMan has responded to you in Todd’s evening blog! I would suggest you keep trying to contact him, he seems sincere to me. As for WW though, he may actually be a troll after all.

    I don’t know what TK would think but perhaps you should just give BM the woodshill.net site and leave it up to him once and for all. I have a good feeling that TK can quickly get rid of any trolls including BM if in fact he is one, but I have a gut feeling he is not.

    TK…what do you think of my suggestion to John? 🙂

    1. I’ll talk to Bailey…

      To be honest, though I am 100% certain his posts are legit and he has a great love and knowledge of meteorology, I am pretty sure he enjoys the untamed format of the WBZ blog and has lots of fun there. There’s always been an unknown factor, and he enjoys that. I’ll invite him here, but I’m not going to pursue it too much. If he wants to come on over, he’ll do so.

      As stated previously, the site will be more public in the near-future, as has been my plan all along. I have the ability to make it an even more secure site, i.e., requiring registration like the old WBZ blog before the big format change. I have no current plans to adopt this system, but will do so if the need arises.

      The core purpose of the blog will not change. So continue to enjoy it as you have been. 🙂

      1. Feel free to use the email address I posted the other day, TK, if you don’t have one that is extra. Putting an email address up where trolls live can be nasty. It’s tadams9999@gmail.com

        I think you are right about BM – he has too many personal comments in his blogs for them to be copied. And I suspect coastal may not have seen his email if he responded since coastal hasn’t been here. Who kows

        Someone else mentioned yesterday over there that they wished you’d come back.

        1. I do still post there periodically. Maybe they just don’t read it often enough to see. 🙂

          We can try that email I suppose. I know that coastal is not always available to use his, so that is a good alternate.

        2. I just sent Bm another post. I am heading out for a couple hrs is there anyway you can post the invite to BM
          on last nights blog. It would be a good Idea to add it too today’s blog as well. Sign it John. If you can’t I will do it later. When and If he responds to the invite we can ask him a question. Tk can come up with a question. Thank’s Vicki. I think we should get this done since he may be checking.

    2. I just feel like I am chasing this guy Philip. I responded to him. I think the invite needs to go out today. One more chance.

  15. Henry Margusity now believes the next 4-6 weeks could be quite cold & stormy for us. Even Pete Bouchard is starting to get all giddy as well. We will see what happens. 🙂

  17. Once we go past the 15th of Feb it becomes tougher and tougher to get cold air here especially when the ground is bare and lakes/ponds and oceans r relatively mild,

  18. ECMWF is most robust (.25-.50qpf) on the potential for a late week system. It should be cold enough for snow too. However it has lost the support of its own Ensembles, as well as the GFS/GEFS/GGEM and its ensembles. They all favor a more more southern solution and generally less than 0.1 QPF from the event. I am not feeling that one as the ECMWF has been consistently over done with its QPF this winter, but there is the potential…

    More interesting is the the ECWMF Ensembles potential for around the 17th. I have used this tool as a great guide this winter. Right now it portrays this as driving rain and mixed precip up into SVT & SNH, but its certainly has potential to a potent storm with lots of QPF and favorable factors for a more eastward trend. That said, it has little support from the 00z GFS/GEFS/GGEM. However, they have all hinted at this system off and on for the last couple of days. Just a little food for thought.

    Charlie is right harder to get favorable conditions later in February especially with all the mitigating surface factors he brings up.

    My overall pattern thoughts have not changed. Generally anomalous warm pattern continues. Brief periods of cold, one coming late week into the following week, potential for a storm or two, but no drastic pattern shift, and more anomalously warm periods.

    2. In almost 100% agreement, as is usual of late. I guess I hold out a little more optimistic hope (from a snow-lover’s perspective) about late next week. I tried to make a case for the ECMWF Ensembles at a few weather sites on Facebook during this winter, only to be pretty much laughed at and/or ignored. I had the admin of one of the sites say (paraphrasing) “very poor forecast, very bad” because I did not agree that sustained cold was coming and that the temperature in the 8-14 day range would continue to run mostly above normal in the East.

  19. As long as there are no weather issues on the 15th when I have a flight out of here I will be happy. I hope if we get a big one it will be before I leave or when I come back. If I miss a big one I would be a little disappointed but I am young and will have plenty of opportunites to see big snow producers.
    Boring weather continues for the next several days.

    1. Your heading out the 15th, my family heads out the 13th. Lets hope for a tranquil 3 days of weather then.

      1. Hey Tom…. If you could believe it I have never had weather as an issue when flying. The one time I was delayed
        was because the backdoor of the plane I was to board could not close. They ended up having to use a door from old
        plane. A 4.5 hour delay total.
        Late next week is a watcher but as been the case all winter these systems never materialize.

        1. Wow. I’d have been a wreck the whole flight knowing about the malfunctioning door……We’ve been pretty lucky too with weather and flying.

  20. Today is the halfway mark btwn the winter solstice and the vernal equinox, with 44 days on either side of today’s date.

      1. Your welcome ! I really like the solar calendar and enjoy watching the changing positions of the sun throughout the year. Gives me some sense of being on a planet thats in constant motion.

  22. Some of you may call me crazy but I get the pool ready for summer in 8weeks, I’ve been getting it ready every year since mid to late 90’s for mid April, there hasn’t been a yr since that the kids haven’t used the pool in April and may since I started doing it, u always get a few days in April and May that u can use it, can’t believe it’s almost that time 🙂

    2. My friend’s neighbors are in their pool as early as April and as late as October, and I’ve seen them be in that pool for most of the afternoon without getting out. It’s a highly visible pool as it sits down a steep hill from the road across the street from her house, so you always know when someone’s in there.

  23. DAAG 040700Z 26006KT 0900 R23/P2000U R09/1900VP2000U TSSN OVC005 FEW030CB 00/M00 Q1022=

    Who can decode that for what headline and where?

    1. If that map verified we’d get into a very drawn out period of snowy weather (several days of light to moderate snow, the kind that you slowly get a huge accumulation so it is not paralyzing). There is one main problem with this, however: It’s a 384 hr GFS forecast. 🙂

  25. I have two guesses. To me its either for Indianapolis talking about the wet weather going on there or Denver Colorado talking about the biggest snowstorm ever for the month of February. I am going with Indianapolis.

  26. TK- Bm responded to my post this morning and is waiting for the invite. Could you please go over there and invite him he want’s on if it is him. I am heading out. I think it is best if you handle this matter. He is waiting for us. If it is him TK I and others here think it would be awesome to have him here. Please take care of this matter tk. Thank you.

  27. There is a “Jim Fenton” over on Todd’s evening blog requesting an invite over here. His post was as of this morning since Joe has yet to post a new blog. The name is not familiar to me, but he seems sincere. I will leave it up to you all and TK.

    Note: There is/was a Tom Fenton who I am fairly certain is a troll…maybe no relation or same person??

    1. As I said Bm is awaiting for us. Tk should handle this and hope he gets it done today. I am sick of this chase. To have him here would be awesome. Heading back out.

  28. I think we should all get over BM and WW. They’ve had more than enough opportunity to join this blog. If they wanted to be here they would. We have terrific bloggers here that are very knowledgeable and some they are just simply interesting. Enjoy what we have here, a small tight blogging community with shared interests.

    I receive so many troll emails, every time my address is posted over on bz, its ridiculous. I have been extremely careful with giving out this site to anyone that responds. My brother doesn’t even have it and he is a weather nut like me.

    Vicki, if you weren’t sure if I was getting my emails, I think a simple email would answer you question.

    With the control that TK has over the bloggers I would suggest that he simply puts it out there for all to see.

    A suggestion I have going forward would be to have a side bar on here with all the model links, I would also think a side bar to post pictures would be pretty cool too.

    1. Side bar suggestion is fantastic. Will be adding lots to the site. It’s just a slow process as I have been dealing with a few things higher on the priority list.

      And you have done a fantastic job screening the emails. I have not thanked you enough and you are a big part of the reason this blog is successful!

      1. I didn’t see a question to me, John. What did I miss. Just got back from trying to find wings – wasn’t easy but we were finally successful.

    4. Coastal – I wasn’t the least bit concerned as to whether you were getting emails. John was concerned that BM hadn’t responded and I didn’t want him to worry so pointed out that you had not been here so perhaps had not been online which would mean you had yet to see an email from BM so give it time. If they were in a hurry I – as I said – have an email not in any way connected to me or my regular email and volunteered its use. Didn’t mean to step on your toes. Although I thought I’d said that and apologize if I didn’t

      1. I’m not sure what he meant. I am sure he will clarify it. I’ll handle it. Coastal nobody has heard from you. I though you were heading to the superbowl in your new truck. Vicki was helping me out, we kind of have each others back if you will.

    5. Coastal, a side bar sounds like a great idea. TK… no pressure. You already give enough of your time to this blog with your daily weather updates just for starters!!! Which is so very much appreciated 🙂

          1. Sorry been in and out all day. Hand was still swolen when she took splint off. She said it looked more so than a week ago. I said don’t think I can use the hand yet in my line of work. She said I agree. Said she was off next week and see her again on 2-14 and no work till than. Took an xray and still confirmed no break. She want’s me to start taking it on and off and go by comfort level. Work want’s me to come in on Tuesday and see an orthro guy from either the BI or Baptist. I guess they do this often. I will see him and I am expecting the care I am receiving from my doctors office he will go the other way. But I think what my doctors office says is the final result I think.

            1. i agree with coming in and out of it and if no significant improvement within a week, ortho should be consulted. Good luck.

                1. I can appreciate that but if conservative treatment fails, ortho really should be consulted. It’s your hand we’re dealing with here.

  33. As a big football fan I hope for a great game. I think the games is going to be close. If Brady has time to throw that is a good sign for the Pats. To me if the Patroits lose this game it will because of the defense. I am thinking a 27-24 game.

    1. That is great – I hope there are lots of ads like that. Sometimes they get way too foolish. I love Budweisers Ads (of course because of horses but also just liked them) and the baby e-Trade ads always make me smile

  35. I noticed another blogger on the BZ blog has setup his own blog and was giving the link on Joe’s blog today.

      1. I’m not out to compete with anyone. I just want to run a good weather blog. I hope Nick does well with his. I may even visit it myself.

        And speaking of blogs, this one has been updated.

  36. My neighbor was out riding his lawn mower around dethatching the lawn getting ready to apply a lime app

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