Chilly & Quiet

67 Comments

10:40PM

A weak low pressure area is passing well south of New England but a light air flow off the ocean has caused a few very light snow showers to be around during the day and evening. Drier air working down from the north will clear things out by early Friday morning. Expect chilly but quiet weather through the weekend, with the only other threat of precipitation being some snow showers Sunday morning as a disturbance passes by. Another warm-up is expected early next week with continued mainly dry weather.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated very light snow showers. Low 23-28. Wind NE-N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

67 thoughts on “Chilly & Quiet”

  2. Thanks TK and Good Morning, all 🙂 I can’t believe we are looking at another chance of almost hitting 50 degrees again next week. Amazing and you got that right Jimmy ~ definitely boring weather. This weather pattern has actually got me thinking about the summer and thunderstorms. I sure hope this summer’s not as drab in the weather dept. as this winter’s been.

  3. Boring stretch is payback for the excitement of 2011–snowy January, tornado, hurricane, October Nor’easter…

  4. Hey Shotime…. I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms during the summer. One of my bold weather predictions for 2012 was for 2-3 big thunderstorm days. I hope we will not see a repeat of what happened on June 1st of last year which goes to show that yes even here in New England although rare we can get a good size to tornado if the conditions setup like they did on that date.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    I still feel that we are going to get at least one big snowstorm before the winter’s out. But I am moving my prediction to March rather than Feb., when I had originally said Feb./March. All these relatively calm days and all the energy stored up – it has to do something!

    I, too, as you know, can hardly wait to start tracking thunderstorms. I believe we are going to have a hot and dry summer but any storms we get will be strong. Nothing like June 1st but still some really strong storms. Just gut feelings – that’s all. I see the spring as wet – but I feel it could be rain or all the snow making up for earlier in the winter.

  7. Hello. I have some general questions about this odd season we are having.

    I grew up in upstate NY in the 60’s – 70’s. Like most children, I lived for the gift of a Snow Day. I remember the disappointment of some winters with little snow. But, it seemed that those winters were very cold. I remember non-snow-loving adults saying, “If it is going to be this cold, it might as well snow”. I also remember some years when it seemed that whenever a storm came our way, it turned to rain.

    Yet, this season is low on both cold and precipitation. Are we in danger of a drought this summer? Will the lack of the usual snow-pack be a major factor? Obviously, the answers depend on how much rain we get later on. Suppose that spring and summer bring average rainfalls. Will the “debt” caused by this dry winter cause trouble six months from now?

    Thanks.

    1. The overall precip deficit is not too great at this point but I would make an educated guess that if we get less than 60% of our normal precip between now and June then we will enter Summer 2012 in drought.

    2. HI SClark!!!

      I heard on the news this morning that although we are below average for snow, we are only 3/4 of an inch below for water/precip – because of the rain we have had. I hope this was accurate because the report also said Boston had 6.8 inches of snow this year and it has actually had 7.6 (as of 1/21 and I may have missed some since then?)

      1. I see TK and I were responding at the same time 🙂 I should add that after all the snow last season, many towns around me had water bans. So who know!

      2. Thank you for the information TK and Vicki.

        Vicki – I know what you mean about the water bans. It seems that some towns have permanent signs for this.

        I don’t know if there is a technical meaning to the word “drought”, but it seems to come up pretty quickly around here. My wife grew up in the CA desert, and gets a chuckle out of this. To her, a drought is something that develops over a time-scale of years, not months.

        1. I think we get a bit caught up in some terms also. I have a friend in NH who does have a well and for the first time in the over dozen years she’s lived there it went dry last year. I suspect that the water level in the town wells determines whether there is a ban. I live in Framingham where our water is supplied by Quabin (sp?). In the 30+ years we have lived here, there was only one year where we had water restrictions. I think it was late 1980s.

          1. I think that some towns are very susceptible to slight drops in precipitation because of over-development putting too much demand on the available water.

            I have relatives in Middleton, MA. They built a house there with a well about 30 years ago and never had water problems for a long while. Over time, the area they live in has become highly developed. Recently have had to dig deeper and deeper to find a reliable water source.

  8. I had to do some checking and finally found a dated photo from last year of the daffodils on the side of my house. Of course the picture last year had them surrounded by snow but it was taken mid-February. Apparently even though it seems earlier for things to be sprouting, it only slightly earlier. However, I do know that years ago I never saw them until mid-March.

  9. I think this is currently, and probably has been a MJO driven pattern. It’s been in unfavorable phases all winter long, and is still in an unfavorable phase. However, forecasts are for it to go into phase 8, which is a favorable phase for below normal temps, and I think it helps force the NAO negative, not too sure.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

    Problem here is that we are running out of time with the strengthening sun.

  11. The NAO forecast still does not look good. A few members go negative, but most
    stay or go more positive.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

    The 12Z GFS still has something brewing for around or about 2/12. So far it has
    it mostly Off shore. Will there be something? If so, will it be OTS? Questions to
    be answered as time goes on.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=216&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  14. I can’t help it. I was just watching TWC and saw the 7-day forecast – a whole row of sun and clouds. No precip. of any kind – at least, for now. The weather is not just boring it is strange – and I kind of think when it decides to change it will in a big way. Oh, well. We really can’t do anything about it. So let’s just concentrate on the Pats – that will be a nail-biter but my bet is that they win – may be close – but they will win. Go Pats! 🙂

    1. I didn’t mean we shouldn’t talk about the weather – one can always find something interesting to talk about weather-wise! For example, other parts of the world, e.g. Alaska, the UK, all having very cold and bad weather.

        1. Better, thanks. Still some pain – especially when I get up in morning. But I have to try and slow down when I do stuff – I tend to move fast. But, that’s my nature, I guess. When my husband and me take walks or when we used to hike (would love to do that again) I always was ahead of him because I walk fast.

          1. I’m laughing because I’m always stopping when Mac and I go anywhere because he is typically behind me a few steps. I’m just off and running. Can you use a patch on your back at night? I got some odd kinks when we were at the beach because I didn’t have a good desk chair so tried an icy hot patch. My daughter has a prescription patch………of course please do not take my advice w/o asking a doctor.

  15. Oh yes, summer thunderstorms! (Or should I say spring?) I am headed out to OK on 5/19 to chase for two weeks. We will be streaming live webcams, if people here are interested I can post links before I go so y’all can watch out our windshield and do a virtual chase. And on down days we have been known to turn the camera around and do bizarre things, up to and including puppet shows, for anyone actually watching us sitting in a van.

    Gronk!!!

    2. I would LOVE that – I’ve always wanted to be a storm chaser – maybe when I was younger I would have been less nervous but now would love to do it from behind a computer

  16. Robert Kraft wants to have the Superbowl, along with Chicago, I would love to be able to enjoy a Superbowl here 🙂 what a fun time that would be

  18. I know that that this is tangential to the weather, but unless there are records kept for “most number of days with no weather to speak of”, it does not seem like there is much else going on. So, I hope that no one minds.

    This anomalous winter is affecting the maple syrup folks (I’m not sure what these people are called – “farmers”, harvesters”, collectors”, “producers”). We have a neighbor who is in the business. He taps many trees around town that are either on public land or private land in exchange for some of his product. We barter our chicken eggs for his syrup and are hopelessly addicted to it.

    He is concerned about the lack of a decent cold stretch this winter. As he says, “trees don’t go backwards”. In other words, any sap that flows now will not be available during the normal collection time later in the season. He has already started installing his collection barrels and tubs and the sap is definitely flowing.

    It will be interesting to see how this season turns out for him.

    1. SClarke – I have a friend (on a small – very – blog I do) who taps his own trees. He lives southwest of Boston. I was lucky to sample his syrup last year and it was as good as I’ve ever had. I also envy your having your own eggs,etc.

      It seems to me your comment is weather related 🙂

  20. for anyone interested wachusett is giving out a deal. what ever the giants score will be the price of mondays day session ski time but if the giants score over 53 dollors aka 53 points then it stays at that.

  21. 12Z GFS for 2/11:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120203%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  22. Good afternoon all!

    Quiet stretch continues well into next week.

    And you know normally I do not like to stick my neck out too far but I still have some concerns about and East Coast storm of some kind in the February 10-12 timeframe. Something to follow. I see a distinctive possibility for rare phasing of the 2 jets if things come together just right. There have been hints of this showing up (they don’t stick out like sore thumbs but little quirks and consistencies you can find in model runs over several days). Today’s 12z Euro speaks volumes to this possibility, so I’m cautious, but concerned.

    1. I should add, I am not paying much attention to placement of surface features on the Euro’s forecast yet, just the overall upper air setup. This run lacks a good high to the north of New England which I’d like to see in place. The 12z GFS does show this high to some extent. And with typical model uncertainty, it’s not worth worrying about placements and magnitudes of highs, lows, and 850 temps, etc., at this stage.

      1. Thanks TK – I was definately going to chime in and rant about the 12Z EURO and not liking the fact that even though the track was to our east it was a rather warm run with the only snow confined to far northern NE. You calmed my nerves a bit and a cooler head prevailed!

        1. It’s always about the overall setup this far out, not the details. It’s easy to want to read into it too much even when we know the runs will change a zillion and one times between now and then. 🙂

      2. AH, but at least you are on board to the “possibility”, which
        is a very good thing. Now we just watch run to run to see
        how the models handle everything. Should be interesting to follow, but IF everything hold true to form, it will either go POOF or go OTS. 🙂

  23. The 12z EURO drops the boot in terms of temps at the end of the run, GFS disagrees.
    I think we have a storm to track!

  24. Could the Almanc get something right this winter. Around that time frame they have been calling for a storm with wet snow mixed with rain and slushy accumulations of 4 plus inches. I am more interested if the big one happens that they predicted between the 20th-23rd of this month.

  25. The fellow who runs the chasing outfit I tour with is actually out chasing today, and streaming. Here’s the link:

    http://www.cloud9tours.com/chasecam/

    Not sure that he’ll catch anything today, but it looks like he’s picked a discrete cell and will see what develops.

    Any time there’s an active storm day a good bet is to go to spotternetwork.org; it’s a site started by chasers and now even used by the NWS. It’s a simple google map of the US, with current radar and the current locations of registered chasers superimposed. This way anyone can see exactly where each chaser is, which is helpful both in finding where your buddies went when they made that wrong turn an hour ago, or in the case of the NWS which chaser may have a good visual on a specific storm. The NWS (also known as ‘8 guys looking at computer screens’) can only see so much with radar images. They will use spotter network to see who is where, and then use our registered cell phone numbers to call us and ask what we see in order to get a better handle on whether or not to issue warnings. Two years ago NW of OKC we were in a nice hail storm and got a call from Otis AFB asking if the hail was bad enough that they should put the planes in the hangers. We said yes, they’re rather expensive, lol.

  26. Lots of chasers stream live now, during the busy season you can bounce from vehicle to vehicle depending on who has the best location. Looking at Charles’ position right now I am guessing he heads east to intercept the cell to his south after it moves north across the red river. There’s only a few bridges going across, so you have to largely commit to the north or south of it. It’s already produced some large hail, so if his luck holds it will still be strengthening around when it gets north of the river.

    1. I love the fact so many are streaming live. I’ll be following it lots since I can’t get out there this year, or probably the next couple years either. My chasing will be limited to New England for a little while.

      I noticed someone is sitting out in the snow in Colorado and yes he’s streaming live too. 🙂

  27. The WBZ blog is the biggest joke today. Not the blog entry by Melissa, that is fine. It’s the comments section. I almost spit my coffee out laughing… Gotta remember not to take a sip while reading there. 🙂

      1. I found today’s more amusing than usual. Maybe because of the thought of someone actually taking the time to think out insults and then screwing them up.

        I really do feel bad for the weather team. They have no control over what goes on there. 🙁

        Anyway, new blog is posted! See everyone there.

        ** Tornado Chris: Feel free to post and repost the link(s) to storm chase related stuff any time you wish, especially as we head into severe weather season.

        1. Thanks TK! Last year I was blogging for the Globe and day one was Joplin; I suddenly became the only Boston-based reporter on the scene, got SKYPE interviewed by channels 4,5, and 7. Not sure if I’ll have that kind of press attention this year or not, but I have a facebook group where I post and upload pics each day. Many of the better known chasers are in there, too, and everyone is welcome to contribute. Before I go out I’ll collect everything for y’all in here. Tornadoes are deadly serious, but we also try to have some fun while we’re out there (there’s ALOT of down-time). The pranksterism can be legendary at times. (The Aussie TV news photographer we know still shakes his head when he remembers going to put Rain-X on his windshield, and instead finding bright pink Pepto-Bismol squirting out of the bottle…..).

      1. I remember when you posted there also Scott and thinking we have adults who are acting like children and a young man who was setting a wonderful example.

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