DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
High pressure in eastern Canada provides our region with nice weather and seasonably cool air for Thanksgiving today, which I hope is a happy one for all! We have a couple of systems to track that will bring us periods of unsettled weather heading through the holiday weekend and into Monday. The first system is pretty straightfoward – a disturbance moving quickly west to east in the northern jet stream of a split flow pattern. This system will encounter mild air in place here, bringing a period of rain showers sometime during the day on Friday, but only for a limited time, leaving many rain-free hours during daylight. It exits by evening with a quick shot of cooler air and gusty wind at night into early Saturday, but the wind will relax and the air will already have moderated coming along into our region so Saturday ends up being quite a nice day with dry weather and air that is on the mild side of seasonable, as an area of high pressure slides to our south. The second disturbance is actually made up of 2 pieces of energy. The first one will be a closed low embedded in the southern jet stream over Texas that begins to eject east northeastward, opening up and weakening. This will send clouds our way during Sunday but the rain area with it may be on the wane, and timed late enough so that we sneak most of Sunday in rain-free, with just a period of wet weather in the evening. But there is a second piece of energy coming along right behind this that I think the guidance has been struggling with. This is the one that I think will keep the clouds and rain chance in place for at least a portion of Monday, favoring the morning hours, before we finally see improvement after that. Still monitoring this and will fine-tune it going forward…
TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Patchy low clouds portions of Cape Ann MA, the MA South Shore, and Cape Cod early to mid morning, otherwise sunny this morning and sun becoming filtered by high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Early day partial sun. Midday clouds and rain showers west to east. Later day breaking clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain morning-midday Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to W with higher gusts later in the day.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)
The upper pattern is expected to feature a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US while much colder air sits just to the north in Canada. Initially expect dry and mild weather for the last couple days of November, a disturbance coming through to start December with rain showers in the last of the mild air, then a drier and colder shot for the balance of this period, based on current expected timing.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
General pattern is mild and not too stormy, but some unsettled weather may occur between the mild air associated with high pressure in the US Southeast and much colder air moving across Canada. We should be on the milder side of that pattern for most of this period, but have to watch for quick cold shots.