Friday January 20 2023 Forecast (7:21AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

Part 1 of the storm system is done, having produced mostly rain and some sleet initially, then a turn to snow in areas to the north, as expected, with up to an inch or 2 of accumulation from the initial burst of snow in those areas. Today, the upper low portion of the system comes across with numerous to widespread snow showers and another couple inches accumulation in northern areas and up to around an inch in some areas to the south, and less than 1 inch for most areas south of I-90 to nothing along the South Coast where it will take longest for what starts as rain showers to transition to mix/snow showers, and by then the moisture will have generally exited the region. This will happen this evening as drier air arrives and sets up an “ok” Saturday, not totally sunny, but precipitation-free and not too cold. But the active pattern rolls on and the next storm arrives later Sunday into Monday. Guidance has trended slightly colder with this over the last few runs, and we’ll continue to watch this, but for now expecting a rain event for the coast, rain/mix/snow potential inland, but just where and how much frozen precipitation is still unclear at this point. This will be addressed on the weekend blog forecast posts. After that second storm system, another small area of high pressure brings a break with fair weather for Tuesday. Also of note, the next few days high tides will cause at least minor flooding in prone areas at is one of the higher tides of 2023, astronomically.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers except rain showers to the south morning. Numerous to widespread snow showers except rain showers changing to snow showers to the south. Additional snow accumulation expected (see discussion for amounts). Highs 30-37 north, 37-44 south, occurring this morning and midday, with a slow fall to follow. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain and some inland northern area mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE to E and increasing to 10-20 MPH by late-day and evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except rain/mix/snow possible southern NH and portions of interior MA. Lows 32-39. Wind E 10-20 MPH, possibly stronger in coastal areas.

MONDAY: Overcast with rain to start, except mix/snow possible some inland locations, tapering off to rain and snow showers then ending. Breaking clouds follow. Highs 37-44. Wind SE or variable 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W with stronger gusts especially by late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

Next storm potential January 25 can produce a variety of precipitation, but unknown until the storm’s track is more clearly known. Quieter period of weather begins after that one but probably a bit colder than we’ve been. Projection of a weaker disturbance passing by somewhere near the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Quiet weather for the early portion of the period, and more seasonably chilly as well. Watching a storm threat way out there in time for around Groundhog Day.

106 thoughts on “Friday January 20 2023 Forecast (7:21AM)”

    1. Gradual temp drop, so no “flash”, just gradual where it was above freezing. Watch for slippery untreated surfaces tonight / tomorrow AM.

  7. Took a Zodiac boat trip around Melchior Islands early AM. Temp is about 38, some sun, and winds at 15-20 mph.

  8. We did flip to snow briefly in the wee hours as temp dipped to
    34 around 1;32 AM. Temp went back up, so we either flipped back to rain or it just stopped and temp warmed.

    Light coating on the ground this morning. I woke up to mist, not snow. Was snowing briefly a while ago. Waiting for the next
    batch of snow, whatever that will be. Does not look impressive to say the least.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Longshot, that’s such an amazing trip you’re taking at the other end of the world. Thanks for the updates.

  14. China, yesterday…

    -50.0°C in Mohe, Heilongjiang Province (NE #China ) this morning!
    ➡️ New monthly record at the station (previous: -49.6°C in January 1979).
    ➡️ First -50°C recorded in China since February 1969 [among official stations]!
    ➡️ Only 1.5°C above the national January record.

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Lovely drizzle here today.

    Rainshine, I hope all is well today after your vaccine.

    North, please let Ivy know I am thinking of her

    1. Had to re-schedule shot. My back is hurting very badly. Just sitting at computer is painful. Seeing back dr. nxt. Mon. Don’t know if vaccine would make me feel worse but hope to get it after I see back dr. Thanks for asking.

  17. Big flakes flying and it really looks great, however, there is still TOO MUCH SPACE between each flake. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. Meanwhile in the Antarctic Melchior Islands it is 38 F with winds 10-15 MPH.

    KATABATIC Winds.

    The trip leaders spoke a little bit about Katabatic winds. These winds come screaming down from the tops of glaciers to the ocean surface. These winds are brutally COLD. I think I need to learn more about this.

      1. I’m amazed that temps down there are so “high”. I figured temps would be well below zero if anything.

        1. Antarctica is huge and not always below zero everywhere. This is typical.

          It’s also summerthere. 🙂

  23. Summer in the southern hemisphere and that particular part of Antarctica is one of the warmest and easiest to access.

  24. 45 years ago today – Friday January 20 1978.

    21 inches of snow in 12 hours at Boston during a wind whipped heavy snowstorm, initially dubbed “The Blizzard of ’78” – a name that lasted just 2 1/2 weeks….. 😉

  25. Snow falling steadily but not sticking to anything, temperatures and dew points still just above freezing.

    34/34F at Logan.

  26. Well, this upcoming Monday system ……..

    I think it could go just SE of Nantucket and it still would rain because, preceding it, you don’t have a cold high to the north, there is a retreating high to our southeast, almost like a Bermuda high. The wind flow is from the south ahead of the system.

    While the one after that looks like a cutter, at least it projects to have a modest cold high bridging to our north. Maybe that one has some hope, IF a cold high is going to be there, as projected.

  27. Thanks TK.

    Torrents of rain, lightning and thunder here last night. Not a fan. I like my January thunderstorms only when they are accompanied by 4″ per hour snow rates! We have had a few snow showers today but nothing accumulating as it is 38 here.

    Leaving shortly for Sunday River. 8″ of new snow there and still coming down. They are up to 93 trails. Looking forward to getting back north to some winter!

  28. Thanks TK! I’m in real good agreement with your mid range thinking right now.

    We’re definitely seeing the expected pattern transition, with winter retaking hold first in central/northern New England. The cold will start to take hold everywhere in the Northeast next week, but so too will a drier pattern (well predicted well in advance by TK). The big question will be does the cold linger into the first week or two of February to bring better snow chances into SNE as the pattern starts to turn more active again (and also a question of how active are we talking?) I continue to lean on the colder/snowier side of things for the overall next 2 to 4 week time span, but admittedly the snow part for SNE probably won’t be until after the start of the new month, later than I would’ve thought initially.

    Also, since I know our friend Philip is interested in it 😉 the lake effect snow machine is likely to start cranking in a *big* way by late next week. Too early to say with high confidence, but because of how much open water there is and the fact that it does look like a prolonged west/northwest flow pattern is going to develop, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some prolific events.

    1. Thanks WxW! I find it interesting that when the pattern turns colder, the storm potential shuts down at the same time. What a coincidence. 😉

      As for Buffalo, it’s a wonder there wasn’t major flooding from snowmelt once it turned milder. Hopefully they handle the next snow machine a lot better. Rather horrific about residents in a city buried in snow. I like snow but not THAT much!

    1. After the February 1978 storm, the low, after wandering out to sea, then drifted into the maritimes of Canada and just sat there, and virtually every other disturbance passed well to the south or never made it at all to the East Coast for the rest of the month. We did have 2 moderate snowfalls in March, at least away from the coast (not sure how those were regionwide – I’d have to look it up and my snowbook info is buried at the moment, not in snow, but in paper .. hahaha).

  30. Just changed to snow up here at the school. We are perhaps 30 ft above sea level up at the campus. Don’t know if it’s changed all the way to the ocean.

      1. Yes, just past our school, rte 139 definitely has a sloped downward part of it for about 1/2 a mile that drops one 30 ft, maybe even a bit more in elevation.

        Often and with a large assist from the ocean, the rain/snow line can set up at this point where the east side of town gets 1-3 inches and the west side of town gets noticeably more.

        1. Unlike the split at humarock which I’d bet is below sea level 😉

          We have had snow constantly since maybe 9 or 10. No accumulation but very pretty.

    1. It’s also not a surprise, given the slow pattern transition. La Nina is giving us a clinic this winter. The most dominating force in our pattern BY FAR this year. I never saw it coming to this extent.

      MJO hasn’t been much help with regards to snow in SNE. We can snow in mild winters, quite a bit sometimes – just not happening this go-’round, yet at least.

      Mark February 1-15 on your calendar.

  32. So as noted, the pattern transition is just that – a transition. We don’t go from one pattern to the other pattern with nothing in between. What does this mean?

    * If the Sunday/Monday system (low center) tracks near or even just off the South Coast it’s likely to be warm enough aloft for mostly rain in the coastal areas and mix/snow further inland.

    * We get colder behind that and ahead of the next system, but the consensus track this far out is one that screams “snow to rain”. Obviously, applying the “beyond day 4” rule says that can still waver in any direction, or maybe not much at all.

    * Interesting note: The GFS has a minor frontal passage towrad the end of the month, a shot of cold air with a northern stream system passage, while the ECMWF advertises a more moisture-laden jet stream disturbance with a swath of precipitation (January 30). Not sure where to go with that info, but for now I lean toward the drier scenario and a quieter stretch of weather between the midweek system and the first of February.

    * Longer range spidey sense tingles a bit about the time around Groundhog Day. I mean, I did have a dream about it the other night. 😉

  33. This is what I call perfect sledding set-up weather. Most people don’t think about this, but I do.

    Rain transitions to snow, and we lay down a 1.5 inch base of wet snow that then hangs tight with temps in the 30s and still-low sun angle. It snows lightly all day on top of that, accumulating modestly with a temp slightly above freezing. It ends tonight, and the temp drops into the 20s. The thin but adequate snowcover then freezes into an icy granular-like surface, soft enough to walk on, but thin enough so that packing of the sled hill is not needed. These rides are among the best, and I’ll be taking some on my old vintage 1980s nearly frictionless orange piece of plastic tomorrow. I’m stoked. 😉

      1. Ditto here …except it accumulated on the top of the three large snowman parts the kids rolled the other day. Sort of as TK described except there was no snow on the ground to start the day.

  35. I have to take a pic of my seasons tree tonight. Every month on the 20th. We have 2 months left to complete the first cycle! Lights are a beautiful blue now, getting ready to start edging toward green.

    1. Please share a picture I was thinking about your seasons tree. Mine….thanks to the idea from you….is still light red. But I choose the colors. It’s a ton of fun.

      Mine is not really a tree but birch tree branches

  36. NWS is having some server issues for anyone who looks at point forecasts. Zone forecasts work, but I have to be honest, I’m not a fan of the way the zone forecasts are worded anymore. My preference was wording that sounded more like somebody was talking to you. The current format is far too robotic.

    “Rain with a chance of snow.” Blah.

    “Rain, possibly mixed with snow.” …or… “Rain, possibly changing to snow.” Better.

    I’m also not a fan of how many forecasts say things like “Sunny with a chance of rain.” Although those show up more on the point forecasts than the zone ones.

    Just my opinions on these tax payer funded products. 😉 I adore the NWS as an organization. I just don’t like the wording of that stuff.

      1. Meatballs were very likely today and they verified when I had a meatball sub for lunch at work. 😉

  37. Yes it’s the 12km NAM, and yes it’s beyond 48 hours, but the sharp difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera snow forecasts for the back side of that system Sunday/Monday tells me this. SNOW DEPTH CHANGE MAP.

  38. Eric came up with the perfect term to describe this month so far, “endless March” and today was a textbook example: snow falling steadily all day and NOTHING on the ground to show for it. A typical “March” day in January! 😉

    2. And perhaps the possibility of system after system. Although 1993 comes to mind, 1969 is always synonymous with March in my memory. And no, I am definitely not saying either scenario will occur. They are just clear and special memories

    3. I can’t think March when the sun angle is still this low. More like November. 🙂 Equally distant from the lowest sun … November & January.

      1. I understand what he is trying to say. I alluded to it in my comment. I think his meaning is broader than sun angle. It’s hard to understand two words when taken out of context

        1. Yes, I know.
          I completely understand what he’s trying to say. I just don’t see it the same way he does. For me, the sun angle is more important. For others, it may not be. It’s just the way my mind works. But straight up weather, yesterday’s system was rather March-like, yes. That I agree with.

  40. Stopped outside of Portland ME for dinner in the way up to Sunday River. Beautiful here with snow sticking on everything and I’d estimate 7 or 8” of fresh snow on the ground.

      1. More than I’m seeing from my daughter in Stowe. But it is snowing there now so it may carry up.

        Have a great weekend, Mark

  42. I said it somewhere here in the beginning of winter ( or late fall ) saying the cape would get more snow then Boston & some thought I was nuts lol . It could happen .

    2. It has never happened.
      And it won’t happen this year.

      That is based on one event that happened early in the season in an otherwise quiet season, which is pretty much the only time you will see them ahead of Boston.

      I will bet you $500, or the highest bet possible that you don’t have to have taxes taken out, that Boston will finish ahead of them in snowfall this season. 😉

Comments are closed.