Wednesday February 28 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)

119 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

A dynamic set-up is featured for the final 2 days of February, making it feel like spring then reminding you that winter is still here. A strong low pressure area passing to our north will drag a sharp cold front eastward toward the region today and across the WHW forecast area from west to east this evening. Ahead of this front comes mild air, a gusty wind, quite strong at times, and waves of rain showers. A final band of heavier rain should accompany the front and this is when some areas can see their strongest wind gusts. A rapid wind shift and temperature drop with the passage of the front may lead to the rain mixing with or changing to wet snow for a brief period of time before ending, but it could snow hard enough, especially in areas north of I-90 and west of I-95, for a quick slushy coating on some surfaces. With a temperature drop overnight, we’ll have to watch for icy areas by Thursday morning. If there’s some good news with this, it’s that a strong and gusty breeze and rapidly lowering dew point will help dry many surfaces before a freeze up can occur, but be aware just in case. Thursday itself will feel more like winter with temperatures well below what they peak at today, a gusty wind, and a sun/cloud mix. Additionally, some snow flurries may migrate into our region via the Great Lakes region. Winds settle down and any flurries end by Thursday night. High pressure slides south of the region Friday with fair, milder weather. Another low pressure area moves into the region on Saturday with a cloudy sky and a chance of some rain, but this system will be quite weak in comparison to the one passing through our region today. A sliver of dry air behind Saturday’s weak system should bring rain-free conditions Sunday but possibly some sunny intervals, though clouds may be stubborn.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Downpours with thunder possible. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH inland where gusts can exceed 40 MPH and 25-35 MPH coast where gusts can exceed 50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of a thunderstorm, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 25-32. Wind S 15-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas, higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east by late evening / overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing somewhat later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Additional unsettled weather with low pressure in the region until about March 7 when a drier westerly air flow will return fair weather to the region. No temperature extremes indicated, but a colder trend late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

Fair weather to start the period, additional unsettled weather opportunities mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

119 thoughts on “Wednesday February 28 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    March is nearly upon us.
    52 here this morning. How high will it go? Will someone see 60?

      2. 132 all time records for February. And these seem to be in the US alone. Clock is ticking.

        Like TK. I continue to be fascinated by HT-HH. All I read shows he is correct that It has helped push what we have been experiencing due to warming for years a bit closer to the cliff. HT-HH is believed to have had some impact on the already depleting ozone layer…possibly up to 30 percent in a few spots and 5 percent overall. And it is adding slightly to temps but enough to possibly push us over the 1.5c danger level set in the Paris agreement. I’m not seeing anything that directly impacts increased moisture although both of these issues add to that also. There sure are lots of reputable studies.

        https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1762807795236126790?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

  14. Thanks TK – strong winds on the South Coast in Padanaram Village. Soaking rains provided good car wash to get rid of excess salt from a couple of weeks ago.

  19. Don’t want to split hairs too much but watching met on channel 4 talk about heavy rain and then show expected totals at a half inch. Realize heavy could refer to the amount that falls or the rate. Seems like some of the talk is leaning toward the lower end of the ranges for wind and rain but I may have only heard a few guys.

    1. Heavy rain for a short period of time could easily result in 1/2 inch. It is the rate not the total amount.

      Looking like there might be a minor accumulation of SNOW. 🙂

  23. Thanks TK.

    There’s a few satellite loops on this page, but if you scroll down a couple, there’s an incredible loop of the cold front hitting the Plains wildfires last night and redirecting their movement from east to south. The fire complex in the Texas panhandle, named the Smokehouse Creek Fire, has burned an absolutely staggering 850,000 acres. That’s the second largest fire in Texas history. It’s unlikely to spread much further, but as they get a more accurate mapping of it, it wouldn’t surprise me if the final number tops 1 million acres, which would be the largest in state history. Unfortunately, upwards of 100 homes have burned between the towns of Fritch and Canadian. However, it could’ve been many more, there were some remarkable acts of structure-defense firefighting that saved many buildings, and so far I’m not aware of any fatalities. A lot of proactive evacuation orders were issued.

    https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/late-february-storm-system/

    1. Thank you, WxW. I was watching this last night. Terrifying. I saw Canadian especially, and it seems it is nothing short of a miracle that there have not been fatalities. Thank God. And bless those fire fighters.

  24. Awful news. Tim Wakefield’s wife died. It gutted me when Tim passed away from a brain tumor last fall. I loved watching him pitch. I got a chance to talk with him once. Such a gentleman. And now I’m gutted again as his wife and mother of their children died. She had been battling cancer. I believe it was pancreatic.

    There isn’t anything more devastating than two relatively young people dying the way they did.

    I’m sure that some people take comfort in their faith to deal with tragedies like this. I do respect that. I’m not against being religious.

    But for me the unfairness of the Wakefields’ passing is jarring as it is every time I hear of (or know personally) tragic deaths of good people. I’m affected by it for days, sometimes weeks. I simply can’t be a person of faith when there’s such injustice.

  25. Thanks TK.

    The wind and cold tomorrow are going to be a shock to the system after the mild weather these past couple days.

  26. Here is today’s weather blog update from Bryan Allegretto, snow forecaster for the Lake Tahoe area and “OpenSnow”. He updates this blog daily for Palisades Tahoe.

    Just an incredible storm incoming…and he has upped his projected snow totals to 5-6 feet at the base area (6200′) and 7-8 feet for the upper mountain.

    https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/weather/5-8-feet-of-snow-possible-by-sunday/

    And the actual 5 day forecast. Look at those daily and nightly accumulations for Thursday through Sunday….

    https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/snow-and-weather

    Dave, you will have to switch your ski area webcam viewing preference to Palisades the next couple days . Looks beautiful out there right now but should be a sight to see the next few days…

    https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

    1. And the storm train looks to roll on through the next 10+ days as well with potentially 2 or 3 more snowstorms by 3/11 when the West coast trough may lift and the pattern turns warmer and drier. We are out there 3/13-3/17 so that would be perfect timing but with how persistent the pattern has been, I am not taking anything for granted. Wouldnt mind a “little” storm while we are out there but something like this would shut the mountains down.

        1. Yeah I hope everything works out with flights, weather etc. Definitely not worried about thin cover anymore, lol.

    2. Yeah, I usually adjust my webcam viewing based on the trajectory of the incoming snow. 🙂

      I always check out Palisades and also Mamouth. 🙂

        1. Sounds good, Hey Maybe we;ll catch you on the web cam.

          You should select on and set a time to pose for use.
          that would be a HOOT!!! 🙂

          1. We need a WHW salute … no Dave, not that finger! just kidding. 🙂

            I have posted pictures of myself on the web cam at Hampton Beach and on a web cam that’s on Marginal Way in Ogunquit Maine. 🙂

            1. Wasn’t even going there at all.

              Mark should have a weather map drawn or painted on the back of his ski parka!!!!!!

  27. Today has been a cloudy day as you know. Tomorrow we’ll have a sun/cloud mix because I think Great Lakes moisture streamers will be present. Friday should be mostly sunny. After that, if my optimism about Sunday is in error, and I’m starting to think it may be, we may log 5 straight cloudy days starting Saturday. Grey times ahead!

    Guidance continues to be consistent about MJO phase 3, 4, 5, and eventually 6 (out around 15 days). It’s been so staunchly staying away from the “snow/cold”phases for the Northeast for months to the point of being comical. You know what that means. It’s going to make a trip through phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 just in time for the start of spring and give us a late season snowstorm.

    You watch…………………………….. 😉

  28. Leap Year data for Boston.

    Maximum temperature for February 29: 64 (1880 and 2016)
    Minimum temperature: 3 (1884)
    Rainfall: 0.56″ (1880)
    Snowfall: 1.3″ (1968)
    Snow depth: 14″ (1892)

    Tomorrow is the 38th leap day in Boston weather recordkeeping (1872).

    In 2020, the high was 35; the low was 22.

    Interestingly, 1900 was not a leap year. To be a leap year, the year number must be divisible by four – except for end-of-century years, which must be divisible by 400. This means that the year 2000 was a leap year, although 1900 was not. (Source: Royal Museums Greenwich website).

      1. I did not know about the divisible by 400 thing.

        I remember February 29, 2020 well. It was one of those winter days I like a lot. It was also the day the first Covid-19 death was reported in Washington state. President Trump announced it, saying that the “woman” was in her 50s. Well, he got the 50s part right, but the person was a man.

  29. I can’t believe how soon we’ll be changing clocks again. In my case, since I have a bunch of analog clocks (my daughter says it looks like an old-fashioned clock repair shop) I’ll have a lot of work to do that Saturday evening.

    3. I’m a clock-winder for the town. We are responsible for the antique clock in the tower above Town Hall.

      In the Spring, we use a specialized tool on the mechanism to advance the time on the four clock faces by an hour. But you cannot move the clock backwards. In the Fall, we stop the clock and then restart it an hour later. Moving the clock ahead 11 hours is not practical. It would take a long time, and the people working in the building would not appreciate hearing the bells striking so many times!

      1. Oh wow. I absolutely love this.

        I was always taught never to turn a clock backwards. I never have but don’t know why.

  30. SClarke, I like that job: Clock-winder!

    I have several (well, too many) antique clocks in my tiny apartment. When my daughter visits from London I have to hide most of them in a storage closet. She can’t stand the sounds of ticking clocks. My son doesn’t mind. He says it’s “quaint.” He also tells me I’m “19th century.”

    2. 11 degrees drop in 4 min. Tropical storm conditions outside.

      Would much rather this be snow, but this is pretty crazy.

      1. It’s roaring but my weather station is mounted on the deck so it doesn’t get a very accurate wind reading. It’s always too low.

        Rain wise we are up to an inch on the day and 1.3” on the event.

        You should be quickly ramping up any minute there…..

        1. It is right on top of us. I stood out for a bit but got soaked. If my neighbors didn’t think I am certifiable before, they do now.

  39. The National Weather Service is forecasting 114 INCHES (almost 10 feet) of snow to fall in just 48 hours near Donner Pass this Thursday to Saturday. Speechless, have we ever seen a Blizzard of this magnitude?

    2. The sick part of me wishes we were headed out there today instead of two weeks from now. I would love to experience something like that once in my life. Just thinking back to how insane Nemo was in 2013 picking up 12” of snow in 2.5 hours and 32” total….I can’t even imagine what it would be like picking up 2 or 3 times that amount of snow in a couple days.

      If I were WxW, I would be beelining it up I-5 right now!

  40. Outages in MA just jumped from 4600 to 6000. Wales, MA is showing 87% of the town or 866 customers out. Looks to be along the CT border.

  41. I was being chased east by the squall line because I was out near 495 at the line and wanted to experience it at home. Made it with 3 min to spare. Gusts about 45 MPH here. Temp has immediately started to go down.

          2. Got it! 🙂 Your drop rate will pick up momentarily, but probably not make it to his. That was impressive.

  42. Down to 36F now so a 16F drop in one hour, 11F of that occurring in the first 4 min as the front passed through. Still very windy and raining hard here, and I am starting to see a few flakes mixing in.

    1. When I started reading your comment I was thinking you should be starting to see flakes – and then I reached the end of the comment. 🙂

  43. HEAVY snow now and 34F. Just took the garbage out and waves of snow were coming down horizontally in the street light.

  44. 55 to 42 in the last 45 min. Seen bigger drops, but still pretty good. I suspect a lot of that took place in 15 minutes just after frontal passage. I could feel it crashing as I stood outside in the squall. 🙂

  45. This is painful. Reminds me of …slowly it falls, degree by degree, fraction of an inch by fraction of an inch

    We hit 40 so 12 degrees in an hour. I think Mark dropped that in two minutes

    2. Enjoy it, you probably have a good 45 min of snow. Back edge just moved thru here and it abruptly ended.

      Temp was down to 33F in the heavy snow so a 19F drop in 1 hour, 50 min though it just actually rose a degree to 34F after the heavy snow ended.

      1. Very nice. I suspect I’ll be asleep before those 45 min. But depends on how long wordle takes at midnight. Temp to 37 now

  50. Interesting stormy signal starting to be identified by some guidance. Something to follow. A lot of high pressure in eastern Canada makes setups like this interesting.

    1. Yeah 3-7-3/9 looking a bit more interesting on the GFS. End of the CMC looking interesting as well.

      Crow in the freezer is ready to thaw for SSK’s mid March dinner. Retrac, Dave and Joshua invited to the party as well.

      1. What we really need is for high pressure in eastern Canada to deliver enough cold. We have not been able to synchronize cold with storms pretty much at all. And the one decent event we got was still marginal. There’s been plenty of cold air for snowfall in the West, and in other parts of the hemisphere, but we haven’t been able to match it up here. Just the luck of the draw. But as I said before, it’s been kind of a blessing in disguise yet again for me, like last year was.

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