Thursday February 29 2024 Forecast (7:18AM)

103 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

On this Leap Day 2024 we have a one-day blast of the feel of winter with a combination of wind and cold. This air mass was delivered by the strong cold front that swept across there region late last evening with a rain squall after a day of gusty winds, rain showers, and mild air. But now it’s back to reality with an air mass some 20 to 25 degrees colder than yesterday and a wind chill making it feel even colder than that. We’ll also end up with some clouds passing quickly across the sky later this morning into this afternoon, and some of those may produce snow showers. These will be induced by moisture streaming eastward from the Great Lakes region. Tonight, the wind will slacken this evening but not completely diminish. However as a small area of high pressure slides to our south and then southeast by Friday, a shift of the wind to southwest will take place, and initiate a warm-up which will be notable on Friday with an approximate 10-degree temperature rise over today’s daytime highs. It will also be the weather pick of the next several days with a fair amount of sunshine. The weekend is going to feature a lot more cloudiness, especially Saturday when some rain is also likely to arrive as a small low pressure area drifts our way via the Mid Atlantic. I’m on the fence still with Sunday’s forecast. I’m pretty certain the rain threat will be gone, but I’m not so sure we clear out very much. I’m still going for some partial sun anyway, but clouds can very well be more stubborn. It will be a modestly mild first weekend of March though, either way. Not a lot of push to systems is expected early next week either and low pressure may lurk not far away, so Monday’s forecast leans to the cloudy side at this point, but holding off on much chance of any rain at this point.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing somewhat later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Good chance of rain, especially midday and afternoon. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine possible, otherwise lots of clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Additional unsettled weather with low pressure in the region until about March 7 or 8 when a drier westerly air flow will return fair weather to the region. No temperature extremes indicated, but a colder trend late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Potential storm signal around March 10-11. Drier trend should follow that. Temperatures near to above normal.

103 thoughts on “Thursday February 29 2024 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. And about 3 weeks ago I chose today for the trip to the ocean to put my feet in the water. Yup. Happened last month too. 😉

  2. Thanks TK !

    Looks like the rain ended as ice pellets, at least, with the thinnest of accumulations on some surfaces.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK
    27 here this morning.

    Happy Leap Day.

    Any chance this season will be a record warm meteorological Winter??

    Going to be some 3+ degrees warmer for the entire period I have no idea what he record is.

    1. One of our elementary schools is on a 2 hr delay because that part of town has trees down and no power.

      I was, for a split second, “horrified”, when I woke up to our Superintendent calling at 6am, knowing it was very windy last night. But, thank goodness, no cancellation.

    1. IF IF and huge if this were to verify, it would bring Boston’s snow totals up close to the bottom of TK’s predictaed range for the season.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    This meteorological winter temperature (averaged out over 3 months) is not record-breaking, though it may have edged up from 6th to 5th place.

    It’s been a very mild winter, to be sure. But as SAK, TK and others have said, we haven’t had a lot of `extremely’ mild/warm days. It’s mostly been lots and lots of days in the 40s.

    What may be a record, though I’m not sure, is the fact that Boston didn’t dip below 14F all meteorological winter. Also, I counted 9 days total that it was in the teens at night. That is probably a record, though again I’m not sure.

  9. I might be close to my seasonal snowfall guess for PVD of 23 inches. Could my guess be blown out of the water? Could happen in a couple of weeks if everything lines up just right.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Was down to 23F at 7 am this morning after being at 52F just before 10pm last night. About 30F drop in 9 hours is not too shabby.

    There was a large tree down on the road on the way to school this am. Had to turn around and divert and the kids got to school a little late. School district did send out a message this morning that there were some road blockages and a few buses might be late.

  14. Happy Leap Day!!

    No Leapsters in our school this February 29. Our principal celebrates students’ and staff birthday during the morning announcements. No names today.

    Thanks, TK!!

  16. In the East Coast standings in terms of snowfall I’ve noticed that only the big cities are included on, say, the weather channel, which implies they don’t include any coastal city in Maine or a `coastal’ city like Providence. I believe that Portland and Providence would sit atop the leader board at 1 and 2, respectively. I’m sure Providence has had more snow than Boston. It’s not as if Providence has had a lot of snow. But I think it’s been more than 12 inches in aggregate. I think Portland is at 24 inches.

  17. Fun fact – unless you are a Hester Prynne-like character – the Salem witch trials officially began on February 29, 1692. Notably, there was no Supreme Court back then to institute any delays in the judicial `process.’

  19. Our low was 25 overnight. We were 37 at midnight. 52 when the front arrived at 10:17. Didn’t need heat till just now when I turned it on

  22. The 12Z GFS wants to rain on our parade some before opening up the heavens

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024022912&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024022912&fh=207&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024022912&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    down considerably, but still not a bad little storm.
    What will future runs look like??????

    1. Not bad, three runs in a row now of the GFS showing a storm threat about 10 days out. And it’s not the only model showing that cold high in eastern Canada nosing cold air down into the Northeast during that time period. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

    1. Another great blog write up today on the storm from Bryan Alegretto on the Palisades Tahoe site. Models just keep getting wetter and colder and now want to keep the snow going a fourth day, right into Sunday evening. Epic snow totals incoming and as Tom said, it’s a cold storm so not the typical Sierra cement. And with low snow levels, may get as much as 6-12” right down to the valley floor in Reno.

      https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/weather/the-big-4-day-storm/?_gl=1*ehczhv*_ga*MTc2MTUxMjE2MC4xNzA4ODg1NjY3*_ga_XD955YZFMQ*MTcwOTIyODQ0Mi4xMy4wLjE3MDkyMjg0NDIuNjAuMC4w*_ga_GTTH59TYTP*MTcwOTIyODQ0Mi4xMy4wLjE3MDkyMjg0NDIuNjAuMC4w

        1. Looking at the Siberia cam, looks like they are pretty much already at blizzard conditions up top and this thing hasnt even started to ramp up yet. They appear to be only running the lower mountain lifts. Also, it is snowing pretty good right down to the base area on the 6200′ cam so the snow level is already starting pretty low. This one’s gonna be the real deal.

  25. Looks at this NWS snowmap, lol…

    Colin McCarthy
    @US_Stormwatch
    16h

    The National Weather Service is forecasting 114 INCHES (almost 10 feet) of snow to fall in just 48 hours near Donner Pass this Thursday to Saturday.

    Easily the most extreme blizzard forecast I’ve ever seen in California.

    Up to 160 inches of snow could fall on the highest peaks through Sunday, with gusts over 150+ mph possible.

    Unfathomable amounts of snow and wind – not a storm you want to mess with.

    https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1763029043883216954?s=20

  28. ***** ALERT ALERT *****
    ***** BREAKING NEWS ******
    ****** IT’S ONLY FEB 29 and WINTER IS NOT OVER*****

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    5h

    Winter may have one final trick up it’s sleeve for the Northeast later this month

    During the 3rd week of March, ridging () may focus near Greenland & over western North America, opening the door for a trough () in the eastern U.S.

    When spring starts, winter may return

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1763205230093537421?s=20

    1. Yup the keep pushing it out thing that’s been going on all winter . We are done Boston / south for any meaningful snow , done .

  31. Beautiful day today. Have spent several hours outdoors running and doing errands to soak it in. Four months from now I’ll be pining for a day like today.

    IF – and that is a big question – we get some winter in early spring it’ll harken back to 1956. My father talked about this a lot. That winter was quite ho-hum until around St. Patrick’s Day when a series of storms and sustained cold hit Boston. Do I expect it this year? No, not at all. But, do I want it to happen? Yes, although I might miss some of the fun as I’ll be in sunny and tranquil England at the end of March. Why do I say sunny and tranquil? Well, that’s what it often is there in late March and April.

    1. OH I remember that March. We 3 storms in succession, all around a foot or so give or take. AWESOME!!!!!
      One of them was on March 21st,

  32. Best pattern signal of the season shows up after March 8. Surprised? Not really. This fits in the long term regime, wild cards applied. Weakening El Nino now. We still don’t have MJO playing in favor of snow lovers, but that may not matter as much as we get further.

  34. Mark,
    You are so right about Palisades.
    I was just looking at the base cam and they are socked in now!
    I can’t imagine how much snow will fall!!!!

    2. There has already been a wind gust to 122mph at the summit of Alpine meadows. That was a quick ramp up!

      By the storms end, the ridge line area at the top is going to be blown bare and there is going to be like 20 feet blown into the bowls below. Not even sure how you would ski through that. Serious snow suffocation risk.

    1. Check out this NWS point and click forecast for Soda Springs CA near Donner Pass along I-80:

      https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.37737751059467&lat=39.32369591751839

      If I am totaling the high end of the ranges right, that is 189″ of snow by Sunday evening so consistent with the GFS.

      Mind you, this is only for elevation 6900′, not even up at the ridgeline.

      AND, I saw a recent picture from Soda Springs after the several storms they got this month and there is already a TON of existing snow on the ground.

      The pictures coming out of this area by the end of the weekend are going to be astounding.

      1. From wikipedia:

        Soda Springs has a dry-summer continental climate (Köppen climate classification Dsb) that is characterized by warm, dry summers, and cold, extremely snowy winters. Snow depth peaks at 93 inches (236.2 cm) during March. Soda Springs is listed as the snowiest place in the state of California and one of the snowiest census-designated places in the world.

        And the current population there is 81 people.

  38. The low countries not only experienced the warmest February on record (absolutely obliterating the previous record), it was also one of the 7 wettest on record. In and of itself that wouldn’t be a major problem. But it’s been a succession of 5 straight months of rain (with record aggregate amounts) that are making things very difficult for a country that is below sea level to begin with.
    Here’s what parts of the country look like. https://cdn.nos.nl/image/2024/02/29/1057872/1280x720a.jpg

  41. SClarke:

    I love hearing about your job as a clock-winder for your town! That’s so cool!!! Can I ask how you got the job? Were you appointed by your town government? Did you volunteer? How long have you done that?

    In some towns in Massachusetts, I believe “fence viewer” is still an official title appointed by select boards in some towns.

    I have been a poll worker for the City of Taunton for more than 12 years. I count ballots on election night. I read write-in votes and ballots that can’t be read by the voting machine. I work this Tuesday night starting at 7:45.

    As God as my witness, in the 2016 presidential election in my precinct, Tom Brady got three write-in votes for President of the United States while Jesus Christ got two. Tom beat Jesus by one vote. You can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

    1. Write-ins have included Jesus Christ, the Pope, Scooby-Doo, Kane West, Mickey Mouse, Betty White, etc. At one point back in time, I do believe that either Mickey Mouse or Jesus Christ got something like 15,000 votes.

  43. B’s 3-0 in after one. First Geekie off a touch pass from Frederick and then Boqvist scored followed by Geekie again.

    I haven’t seen the B’s like this in the past 3 weeks… maybe longer. From the opening puck drop, they came to play! Every player has a game face on. Puck management on a superior level. You can’t beat this and they need the win.

      1. I am very pro Bruins except they really treated Bruce Cassidy like crap.

        I love that Vegas won it all last year and wouldn’t mind if he left the garden with a win tonight after being down 3-0.

        And then the Bruins can win 10 in a row.

  50. We have a 113 year old Massachusetts resident: Ms. Senhouse, born in 1911, went to Woburn High School (in the 1920s!) and now lives in Wellesley. I wish the boston.com article had spelled Wellesley correctly. But still it’s a nice tribute. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/02/29/new-englands-oldest-resident-celebrates-113-years/?p1=hp_secondary

    Try to imagine all the changes she has seen: World wars, pandemics, astounding technological advances, etc …

      2. But none of this is possible because it’s March in New England and winter’s over, right? ? Lol.

    1. Obviously the “day to day” sensible weather is not really the CFS’s thing, though it has to show something because it’s a simulation. But the CFS has been decent with the general pattern for quite some time now.

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