Tuesday February 27 2024 Forecast (7:26AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

February has featured several mornings that started with heavy frost after a night of clear sky and light / calm wind. This morning is one of those for a good portion of the region, including right here in my own location. In fact, I’m starting to wonder if I’ve had more frost accumulation than snow accumulation this month. 😉 … Jokes aside, we have a very nice day ahead, despite an increase in cloud cover as we head through the afternoon. After a chilly early morning, temperatures will rebound nicely, with many areas cracking 50 by midday and areas away from the coast reaching well into the 50s by mid afternoon. Coastal communities will be on the cooler side as the wind will be light southeast to south – at least partially off the ocean water. Tonight, the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. This will continue through the day Wednesday too. Episodes of rain showers will occur both tonight and Wednesday. The cold front itself will not arrive until Wednesday evening when it’s due to sweep west to east across the region, accompanied by one final round of heavier rainfall. Some locations may see this rain end as a mix of precipitation or wet snow as cold air will be incoming very quickly as the front goes by. At most, a brief slushy accumulation of snow may occur on some surfaces mainly west and north of Boston Wednesday night before dry air arrives on a gusty, shifted wind. The final day of the month on Thursday (Leap Day) will feature a sun/cloud mix with a gusty wind and chilly air, made to feel colder by the wind. We welcome March on Friday with a fair and slightly milder day with less wind as high pressure sinks to the south of New England. This high will slide offshore and make way for a weak area of low pressure to lift northeastward from the Mid Atlantic toward southern New England, bringing clouds and possibly some wet weather back into the region for the beginning of the weekend on Saturday. There’s some disagreement in the medium range guidance as to the movement of this feature, so treat the outlook with a grain of salt until I can refine the timing / impact expectations.

TODAY: Sunshine fades later as clouds increase. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of a thunderstorm, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Optimistically calling for fair weather March 3 to finish off the first weekend of the new month, but additional unsettled weather from low pressure hanging around offshore / near the coast can occur before another trough from the west with additional wet weather sweeps eastward through the region. The period may end with dry, chilly weather and a stronger westerly air flow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

Fair weather to start the period, additional unsettled weather opportunities mid to late period. Temperatures above normal for the period, but may be a colder trend with time.

70 thoughts on “Tuesday February 27 2024 Forecast (7:26AM)”

      1. sorry, don’t agree. You see it is NOT the changes i Want to see.
        At this point, give me much storminess (snow) or nice Spring Weather. Nothing in between. 🙂

  10. Thanks, TK!

    Fog continues to be tough. The visibility was less than 1/4 of a mile in the Raynham/Lakeville stretch this morning.

    35/35

  16. Thanks TK.

    This is definitely one of the more extreme weather patterns I can recall across the CONUS. Wildfires in the Plains, significant severe weather potential in the Great Lakes states. Record or near record heat either occurring or expected over most of the eastern half of the country. Not necessarily unusual occurrences at certain times of the year, but in late February, yeah, this is pretty weird. No other way to slice it. And all indications that this pattern will repeat at least once or twice more through mid March.

    Meanwhile, here’s the 12z GFS snow through day 10 out West. Assumes a 10:1 ratio, so will be too low in most cases. Widespread 8 to 15+ feet over the Sierra next 2 weeks, a heck of a lot even for their standards…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=swus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024022712&fh=240

  21. 61 pembroke , bring on warmer days . See ya winter it’s been an easy one for consecutive yrs now .

    1. Except that it’s still winter. 😉

      We don’t declare winter over until spring arrives. 🙂

      2. It’s over snow wise Boston / south 2/27/24. No big storm will take place or I’ll eat crow every night . We don’t even have an event on the horizon

  22. Thanks JpDave, but I think it was someone else who drew attention to the severe weather.

    Anyway, they’ve upgraded to a couple enhanced areas, including a 10% tornado contour, a small 30% wind contour and another 30% hail contour.

  24. Thanks TK! There have certainly been some “blowtorch” moments across the plains. The Twin Cities set an all time high for February with 63 yesterday and then will be down to 20 tonight with wind chills near zero. Then back up to 70 on Sunday. Kansas City has a high of 78 today and a low of 14 tomorrow.

    1. Interestingly even with the very mild winter over much of the central and eastern US there have not been a tremendous amount of really really warm days. This is one of the more significant bursts of that. The West once again has had most of the cold.

      No matter what happened we just could not get that polar jet down into the lower 48. Every time it made a move south it was on the other side of the hemisphere somewhere.

      I hypothesize that one of the reasons for this is every time MJO was heading into a phase that would favor cold in the East, the MJO would become very weak. I wonder if HTE has something to do with it. The atmosphere his behaved very interestingly since that water vapor was injected into the stratosphere.

      I know I bring it up a lot but I bring it up a lot because I think it is one of the most important events that we have ever witnessed or will ever witness.

      1. I posted on the PV disruption a few weeks ago. There was a fair amount of discussion. It was around the time TX was having cold weather I believe. The culprit as I recall is climate change. But there was more than that. Darned if I can remember when this was. I don’t believe HTHH was mentioned but will keep looking. I did find these.

        https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/cooking-stratospheric-polar-vortex-disruption

        http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-double-header

        http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-acting

        1. Yes, thank you 🙂
          I think with any of these things, the volcano won’t be mentioned much until hard core research is well underway. So it makes sense to focus on what is more know with regards to larger scale driving events.

      2. Thanks TK – I agree with that perspective – not often you see these temp swings – flash freeze in Minneapolis- low as 6 tonight. I remember how swings in temps like that would have the wooden beams in my house making all sorts of noises

  25. How severe will the storm get in New England? Similar to the rain/wind storms earlier this winter? Hopefully it will Peter out a bit.

    Thanks.

  27. A little behind today. My laptop was out for a day surgery … getting a keyboard replacement. 😉

    I’ll get caught up – eventually. Lots to do here!

  28. This is what I meant by MJO. Here is the trace of where the index has been (black line) and the ECMWF forecast for it through the next couple weeks (coming week is blue line, week 2 is red line, beyond 2 weeks is purple line). And once again, right through the circle of nothingness when it would have been in phases 8, 1, and 2, which are good for New England cold & snow. And then out of the circle just in time for the unfavorable phases 3 through 6. The amount of times this has happened since the volcano added that moisture to the stratosphere could still be coincidental, but it’s getting and harder to believe. I really hope there is a boat load of research done on this extremely important event.

    You don’t blast an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere and not have some kind of impact. It acts very similarly to a greenhouse gas. This explains a lot, IMO. And this is what I have been saying for a long time now. HTE + long term warming + El Nino. To me, it’s clear as day. It’ll be interesting to see what happens coming back out of El Nino… Longer-term warning isn’t going anywhere right now, hence the term “longer-term”. An HTE is projected to be a factor for at least a couple more and possibly as many as 8 more years. Time will tell on that great unknown.

    Anyway here’s the link to the MJO diagram: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF.png

  29. Thanks TK.

    Low of 27.9F this morning and a high of 59.5F. Quite the diurnal swing though nothing like what they are experiencing in the midwest….

    St Louis hit a high of 85F at 4PM and is currently sitting at 77F. The low temperature overnight is projected to be 27F by 6AM. Nearly a 60F drop in 14 hours…..

  30. Winter Storm Watches upgraded to Blizzard Warnings in the Sierras. Just once in my life I would like to experience something like this…..

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=STO&wwa=blizzard%20warning

    Not too often you see a warning for 5-10 FEET of snow in 3 days.

    They actually dialed this back a bit from the Watch yesterday where they mentioned up to 12 feet 🙂 Not sure how you could even measure with the projected 80-100 mph winds.

  31. The anniversary was yesterday but I vividly remember this storm. The rain/snow line set up in literally a N/S orientation, roughly along the NYS line. We had heavy rain in much of New England and it was heavy snow in NYS and PA. Philadelphia was getting pounded with heavy snow while it was raining in Burlington VT. Very bizarre…

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    Feb 26

    In stark contrast to today’s mild weather, on this date in 2010 one of the most unique synoptic evolutions of a snowstorm I’ve ever seen was ongoing in the Northeast US.

    A multi-day deluge of heavy wet snow resulted – and unusual gradients with rain in Albany & snow in Philly!

    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1762260738264146343?s=20

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