Coldest Done For Now

146 Comments

7:19AM

The shot of very cold air is over and more “normal” cold will be dominant during the next few days across southern New England. Weak disturbances will produce clouds at times, especially today and again Sunday, with Sunday’s disturbance also carrying a chance of some light snow early in the day.

Looking into next week, after a chilly beginning, a warm-up should commence and peak at midweek.

Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-37. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few periods of light snow especially in the morning. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 37.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 34.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 39.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

146 thoughts on “Coldest Done For Now”

  3. Thanks tk, it appears we have a mini thaw coming over the next 1-2 weeks, also I’ve noticed it lighter outside at 5-530 pm last evening, gaining 1-2 min of daylight each day 🙂 enjoy the day everyone

      1. Sue was it in the range of 2-3 that you had total from the storm? 1 inch left isn’t bad considering. Id say we have maybe 4 remaining – maybe closer to 3 – and we had 8.5

  5. I will miss the artic cold, nice to see single digits (+/-) on the thermometer, if the winds are light, it is not too bad.

    1. I was standing outside with our dog yesterday and taking nice deep breaths and wondering how you like the cold when walking your dog. Somehow I knew you’d enjoy it. I keep telling my family it is invigorating and they laugh at me because most of them are summer people but it really is.

      1. Agreed. There is only one type of weather I don’t care to go outside for a walk and that is a cold rain (<40°).

  6. Interesting that Melissa and JC have 50 temps for their days 6-7 but JR has only low 40’s with rain for next Thursday.

      1. Good response. I couldn’t figure out why I was also seeing such a wide variance in forecasted high temps for next week.

  7. Good morning all.

    Another Ho-Hum day in the lives of the WoodsHill Bloggers. 🙂

    Today is the perfect Winter’s day in my mind. Not too cold, but just cold enough.

    Looks to warm up pretty good next week. 850MB temps of 6-10 Celsius. (potential
    of 60-68F at the surface, depending on mixing, wind direction and extent of
    snow on the ground. So realistically, probably translates to 50s)

    The question is: How much cold air penetrates after the warm up and how long
    will it stick around?

  14. I can’t help but think the temps for next week might be overdone in Central/Northern Mass. Still have a very decent snow cover in my area.

    2. You’d be amazed at how high the temperature can get with a snow cover
      on the ground. IMHO, 40s are under done. 😀

      50s clearly are not out of the question.

      In March with a deep snow cover I’ve seen temperatures approach 70.
      (not saying that will happen next week. Just saying because there is snow
      cover does not mean temps will be limited to the 40s) 😀

      1. In March the sun angle is much higher than this time of year which you also have to take into consideration.

        1. I fully understand that. The point was that the temperature can still get up there even with the
          snow on the ground. I’m going with mid 50s for the
          warm up next week.

  15. yes there looks to be a warm up but the snow will help keep the temeratures in the 40s. ;)… i say expect alot of fog

  16. NWS has the better chance for widespread whitening for Sun/early Mon rather than the early Sunday deal.

    1. Could you please translate those maps. As I have been forecasting for a few days now look for snow to overspread most area’s early Sunday morning. This event is extreamly minor. If you blink you might miss it.

  18. This may actually turn out to be a normal January thaw. Last year’s thaw was basically the entire month of January, with one exception, the weekend that it snowed a couple of inches (my only fond memory of last winter). This year’s will likely be confined to a couple of days in the upper 40s/low 50s. I do think that this will melt all snow in and around Boston. Maybe not in the burbs, but in town, yes. It doesn’t take much in an urban center.

    Still can’t do my normal run as my cold just won’t die. Nagging. At least sinuses are not really involved this time, and lungs seem clear.

  19. 12Z Euro will be out in about 1 1/2 hours. We’ll see what is has to say about
    the Sunday coating of snow and the potential warm up next week.

  20. I think the nam is overdone, alot of us in eastern mass will receive flurries and snowshowers, I think it might be more like snow squalls, will c but doesn’t look like a big deal, have a good afternoon 😉

  21. We have been holding steady with 2-3 inches here but there is some melting with that bright sun, I believe we will see all the snow disappear as we go through the weekend and into early next week for my area

  22. The bare ground/snow on the ground line is downtown Boston down the immediate coast down rt 3 and the canal moving NW 🙂

    1. You may be right. I’d be surprised to see 60, but 50s look very possible. If this verifies, almost all the snow, even in the burbs, will be gone. Why? Because it’ll be 50s and partly sunny. That’ll do a number on the minimal snowpack we have in place in the Boston area. Jet stream looks bizarre next week Thursday and Friday, almost moving vertically up the Ohio Valley well into Canada. Most places east of the jet stream will see temperatures at least 20 degrees above normal. Jet stream appears to buckle as we approach the following week. We’ll see.

      I may head north next week. Quebec City has a very healthy snowpack, and that will limit the rise in temperature. Will not go above freezing the coming 10 days, and they will actually be enjoying more snow next Thursday and into the weekend with the configuration of the jet stream. This weekend temps there will fall to -8F. When people say Boston is a cold weather town, I always remind them of how Quebeckers would respond.

      1. Those forecasted 850MB temperatures for Thursday and Friday
        next week are MIGHTY high for this time of year!

        Seriously, I wonder IF any high temperature records will
        be challenged? Most especially on Friday. 😀 🙂

  24. Hey, it’s 40 Degrees out there! Really cold for sure! LOL 😀

    btw, for Sunday the 12z Euro is advertising ZILCH! as in NADA! NOTHING!

    😀 😀

  25. Thats more like it. Sunday will be a cloud filled day with am snow flying, no accumulation is expected. Worse case would be a suger coating, not going to happen.

  28. For the ump-teenth time the last many months, a radar span of the entire US shows barely an echo.

    The upside of this along with a decent amount of clear skies are the nice visible satellite shots of the snowcover in the midwest, northern tier and western US.

  29. Well, the winter of 2012-2013 was nice. Began December 27th, ended midday January 4th. Had a nice snow event. Onto spring ! Geesh !!

    1. 😀 😀 🙂 🙂

      Sometimes it sure looks that way. But there will be some colder air
      after that warm up. Not sure it will be sustainable, though.

      Time will tell.

  32. 12z looks like it has a bit more of a clue today.

    GFS is a bit fast with the evolution, Euro has been a bit slow but is coming to its senses.

    “Normal” chill this weekend and the snow event Sunday looks very minor, in fact it may be just mild enough for rain showers briefly.

    Very short but sharp cold shot Sunday night & Monday. Might have to watch for a snow squall or at least some snow showers.

    The “big warm up” will end up being a minor thaw (40s, maybe 50 in bare-ground areas by Thursday). Wet weather event albeit fairly minor on Friday will lead to a transition weekend (maybe unsettled), reading to introduce more cold/dry weather after that.

      1. It never comes together just right to bring the big warm-up.

        Extra shot of very cold air Monday takes us a few steps back. It recovers only slowly Tuesday then a bit more Wednesday, but when the heights rise the most Thursday the surface wind does not cooperate, and when the surface wind cooperates early Friday the heights start to drop and we’re also likely socked in with clouds/showers/rain.

      2. Challenging TK on his forecast. I like the gumption. However, it is TK we’re talking about. I must say, his forecasts and long-range thinking really do verify in most instances.

  33. Vicki….unrelated to weather but I was down at the Plymouth waterfront today and noticed that Lobster Hut had a sign up that they are closed for now but will open on February 13th. I know you had mentioned your family may be spending a night down here soon and they like that place.

    1. Sue thank you. My daughter just did a little cheer. She said shed love the shops to be open in water street but they also like the stores in back of the hotel. Hope I got that right since I’m not as familiar with the area. Thanks again!!

      1. Yes, the shops in Village Landing are in front of the hotel and those will be open. There are also some nice little shops up on Main Street that are open year round so she may want to take a walk up there. It isn’t far at all from the hotel.

            1. If you are looking at Lobster Hut it is to the right of it and next to Cabby Shack. The cupcakes are amazing!

  34. does anyone else see a small event this sunday that spreads some light snow showers and then next friday/saturday a storm system effects us with rain or a mix of rain and snow event next friday/saturday and then a very active pattern with lots of cold air. i know its far out … im just being hopeful

    1. Yes matt. There will be a very small disturbance coming in first thing Sunday morning, early. Very slim chance of 1inch in some areas. Although probably just a squall or snow showers. Possible suger coating may be more of the case. This event will be very minor. If you sleep in you may miss it as looks to arrive in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

    2. I believe it has to do with currant, I think tk said that. I think. The temperature of the water will fluctuate because of the currant.

  36. By the time midweek next week comes wont most of eastern mass have bare ground so that hence most of us will be in the 50’s, I mean I’m 1 or 2 days of high temps in the 40’s from having bare ground, just wondering? The Charlie line is working in west of rt 3 now and working closer to the Taunton to Brocton to Quincy areas 🙂

  37. Vicky it has to do with the ocean currents. I thought thats what tk said. I went back and reviewed his comments.

    1. Wasn’t it further out though for that buoy reporting 60’s and some of the isolated much warmer ones that he referred to the currents?

    2. John you are right it was TK who said ocean current affect. It was a comment from OS that I mistakenly referred to stated the temp would be better checked at the bouy than at the shore – which I totally agree with. I don’t see great fluctuation in the temps where the bouys are placed which would indicate they are fairly accurate – always allowing for exceptions of course – and that North may well be correct that the temps are dropping. It’ll take several readings to see if this hold true or if they bounce back up.

  39. I think looking at model temps, there is a for sure consensus on temps above 45 degrees for daytime temps starting Tuesday and lasting through next weekend, and lows only in the 30’s, a little rain late in the week, good night 🙂

  40. 7.5 magnitude earthquake west of Craig, Alaska. Some tsunami warnings, but some warnings are being taken down.

  41. Strange AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    If you could drive towards the sun continuously at 55 mph, how long would it take you to get there?
    A. 193 days
    B. 252 days
    C. 3 years
    D. 5 years

    1. I don’t get it. if the sun is 90+ million miles away, it would take something like 1.6 million years.

      What am i not getting?

      1. Hi Retrac.

        That would be correct if it were 55 miles per year, however in the question’s premise, its 55 miles per hour.

        1. Therefore, the answer is 193 years:

          55*24=1320 miles per day

          93,000,000/1320= 70,454 Days

          70,454/365 = 193 years

          Did I miss something?

    2. 25% chance of getting this right so I will go with C.
      Picturesque snow overnight into tomorrow morning for those who see the snow showers. The January thaw comes early
      this year and hopefully the cold and snow returns for the second half of January.

    3. Hmmmmm I’m thinking just under 200 years but we have two guesses from the peanut gallery here

      SIL and husband say 3 years but SIL says he’ll need at least one bathroom break

      Ill say 5 years

      My husband has his calculator out now 🙂

    4. Hmmmmm …… Tough math problem to start a Saturday off with 🙂 . I’m sitting here trying to do it in my head, with estimation and am getting other solutions. Will continue to ponder……. My first estimation came somewhat closer to A or B, as long as the labels were changed from days to years.

      1. Tom that’s what we were thinking too. SIL did it very quickly – and the emphasis is on quickly – and came out in the vicinity of 170-200ish years but he was heading out the door to work so….

        1. Same here ….. redoing to make sure I am converting correctly from miles per hour….. To miles per day …. To miles per year…… Etc.

          1. Nothing like an interesting problem …..

            Must be trying to take everyone’s mind off of the snooze-city weather pattern that gets more active eventually, except we’ll be on the spring-city side of the active weather.

          2. Tom can you please verify my Math. I think
            I have it correct, which means NONE of their
            answers are correct. Some of the answers
            clearly they meant to be in YEARS! 😀 🙂

            1. I think so too (that one of the answers might be correct/close if it had a different label).

              The only thing that lingers in the back of my mind is that sometimes, some problems are not always as they appear and thus, I keep asking myself, what am I missing in the reading comprehension part of the problem ?

              I solved it using estimation by converting miles per hour to miles per year, then divided that figure into 93,000,000. I’m getting a bit less than A, but with a label of years.

              1. I wonder if they mean something silly like driving around the globe until you reach the sun at the same angle/position it was in when you started???????

                That is the only other wrinkle I could come up with. Even so, they sure should have expressed the problem with a bit more detail? NO? 😀

                1. Yes. When we make up assessments for students, I probably put more time into the wording of the questions. If the reading comprehension part of the question is not good and a student gets he problem wrong, then as a math teacher, I have a problem because I dont know if the student’s error comes from a reading comprehension issue or a math issue.

              2. Thanks for clearing it up guys. My head is in the clouds. I’ve been stuck in bed for four days with that nasty flu.

                As sick as I’ve ever been

    1. Hey North thanks a lot. Just checked it out briefly. I will look at later. If I went through an agent and staying seven nights at the Polynesian with everything included stay, air, hopper pass for week with admissions and meal plan was around $9000. Man that would be the most we ever spent on vacation. I could go on the Bermuda cruise twice and put money down for another. Now I’m going to try getting my own price and see the difference. My head is spinning because the information on Disney is just so overwhelming. Thanks again north. If we go thinking about 4/20 or 5/5. The april one would be a lot more on airfare but he will be nine on 4/16. The 20th would be the the end of vacation week. I don’t think it would be a problem keeping him out as he is in third grade and does well in school. Sorry about this long non weather post.

      1. We took my daughter out for a week to go in third grade and she was fine. Just have to make sure MCAS is not that week. Good luck. Will let you know if I see anything else.

  46. Wxrisk.com
    ‎** POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH COLDER PATTERN IN EASTERN US AFTER JAN 15 ***

    this relates to the VIDEO I did earlier today…. This Image is from the ECMWF model for the MJO. recall that the MJO method of forecasting 2-3 weeks out PROVED to be more accurate when back in Mid and Late DEC 2012 it forecasted MILD / warm for much of central and eastern US for JAN 2-15 .. where as the CFS forecasted large areas of Below and Much below Normal temps for the central and eastern CONUS .

    anyway as you can see the ECMWF – MJO shows phase 7 by Jan 17-18

  47. Of course, to be technically correct on the accuweather quiz, when you depart the earth in your car (through the 2,000F part of the upper atmosphere, mind you 🙂 ), the month you leave would matter, because in January at Perihelion, the earth is only 91,400,000 miles from the sun, while in July, the earth at Aphelion is at 94,500,000 from the sun….and at 500,000 miles per year, that would be a difference of 6 years. 🙂

    1. Hahaha. This is the most fun yet. I will say if my SIL was as close at it appears by doing the math in his head in a couple minutes time I AM NOT TELLING HIM. and I too wonder if we are misreading something. GREAT quiz longshot. See how easily amused we are 🙂

  48. Regarding Joe’s WBZ AccuWeather Trivia Question about the latest sunrise of the year as the answer is January 5th at 7:14 am:

    Technically, the latest sunrise of the year occurs during the first few days of November at 7:22 am…UGH!

    1. But just think from this point forward in just 6 weeks days will be over an hr longer of daylight and spring will be right around the corner 🙂 this will probably wild up some of u but it’s the truth, have a great day everyone

      1. It is true though ill give u that. It seems for us here in NE, the 2 opposite seasons (summer and winter) are getting shorter and shorter. While technically they are 3 months long we only seem to experience typical weather from each season consistently for 2 months tops.

  49. We may be in for a very unusual January thaw; one in which Boston does not go below freezing for close to a week. Goodbye snow, but also ice. I sure hope colder air is on the way, behind this thaw. But, now I am wondering.

    1. Lots of thawing coming over the next 7-10 days and the Charlie line (snow on ground and bare ground) is predicted to reach west of 495 by Tue/Wed

  50. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. I believe the quiz answers (WBZ) might be incorrect. In fact Joe Joyce who presented the quiz had a weird look on his face when he read the question and the answers. In addition, the first time he posted the question on TV it was worded so poorly I couldn’t understand it and then someone tried to correct the English the second time he showed it and I think he was still uncomfortable.

    I believe the answer is 193 years (not 193 days as he showed it). Years=93,000,000 miles/55mph/24hours/365 days = 193 years. Working it backwards, it would be 193 yrs x 365 days x 24 hours per day x 55mph = 93 million miles.

  52. It seems that a lot of people believe that the seasons and weather is vastly different now than when they were young.

    Am I one of the only ones that remembers variability even back then? I remember very little snow some winters, a local pond that remained largely unfrozen sometimes during milder winters and other winters where it was covered in makeshift hockey rinks.

    Looking at Autumn for example, 2011’s leaf-change was so very late, whereas 2012’s got underway 2 to 3 weeks earlier. There were trees in my neighborhood that were bare of leaves nearly a month earlier in 2012 than they were in 2011. Nature reacts more to the now, in order to survive, otherwise there would be a whole lot of dead trees, plants, and animals around. That’s why when a large batch of leaf-eating caterpillars comes around, by the next year the trees are putting toxins in their leaves to control the situation.

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