Model Battle

353 Comments

5:17PM

Let’s cut to the chase. The stupid computer models have been all over the place with this one. Why can’t it all be easy like the blizzard? Well it doesn’t work that way. The complexities of the atmosphere often overwhelm our man-made weather predictors. It’s just the nature of it. So when you have one model predicting traces to an inch or 2 of snow, another predicting a foot, and most of the others somewhere in between, what do you do? Throw darts? Roll dice? Guess? … You apply meteorology and hope for the best. That’s what I have done in thinking about what to forecast for this weekend’s weather.

After a mild Friday, a hint of the coming of Spring to some, a cold front will amble west to east across the region overnight and early Saturday, bringing a band of snow and rain showers to the region. The best chance of snow taking place will be over inland areas where it will cool sufficiently tonight before the clouds grow too thick. A slower temperature drop closer to the coast may leave the air marginal for supporting snow for a while. Either way, I’m only expecting minor snow accumulations where snow does occur from the first of this 2-part event. It’s the second part, Saturday night and early Sunday, that has many meteorologists in a tizzy, but a cooler head is going to prevail at WHW. Calmly forecasting the second part, in the form of a developing low pressure area, to explode over the water into a beast, but JUST too far east to give much of the area a huge snowstorm. And it will become cold enough for snow in all areas very quickly as it draws much colder air down from the north as it intensifies. There will likely be accumulating snow in all areas of eastern MA, RI, and southern NH, but for now all of the snow amounts in this forecast will be underneath double-digits. With such a close pass expected, there is virtually no margin for error and a slight jog either direction can potentially have drastic impact on snow amounts. So please stay tuned…

After the madness ends, late Sunday will just be plain windy and very cold, Monday (Presidents Day) will continue more of the same, but Tuesday will see rapid moderation in temperature and a chance of a minor precipitation event later in the day into the night, followed by a mostly dry but windy and colder middle of next week, based on current expected timing of weather systems.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Chance of snow and rain showers. Lows drop to the upper 20s inland and lower 30s coast. Wind SW around 10 MPH decreasing to calm for a while then NW up to 10 MPH toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers becoming mostly snow showers during the morning, accumulating anywhere from a coating to 1 inch. Partial sunshine possible around midday before clouds thicken again in the afternoon. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing early, may be moderate to heavy for a while before tapering off toward dawn. Snow accumulation 2-5 inches except 5-9 inches eastern Cape Ann and coastal Plymouth County MA southeastward through Cape Cod and the Islands. Some blowing and drifting snow. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts in all areas.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds to start with lingering snow showers especially coastal locations, then some increasing sun from west to east during the afternoon. Highs struggle to reach the upper 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Additional blowing snow.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny & windy. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers late. Low 20. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. Scattered snow showers. Low 14. High 31.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy & breezy. Isolated snow showers. Low 13. High 33.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 12. High 32.

353 thoughts on “Model Battle”

  1. Today was so nice!!!!

    Some people get so mad/upset when it gets cold again right after this, but I don’t mind the previews 🙂

    1. At least you’re realistic. Seems like so many people try to rush seasons. Just let the weather happen and be glad you’re here to witness whatever it is. 🙂

    2. I feel exactly the same Emily. For me its the little teases and weather swings that make New England great.

  7. where the national weather service posted winter storm watches. 4-8 inches. areas in eastern mass ,south central mass down into rd and the southern half of ct will see 2-4 inches. northern ct, western and north central mass up into vt will see less than 2 inches. It is just to close to call right now and this was kind of what i been thinking ever since it came up. that the cape and islands will get the most of this storm again. i would not mind another 5-10 inches of snow up by billerica points north and west.. Its still winter people and i hope we get more desent snow storms. 🙂

          1. Hahaha. We love kids week too. We don’t watch wheel but were thinking we should. We’ve watched jeopardy for years and years

            1. I am actually hoping to see Wheel of Fortune in person next month when they tape in NYC. I went back in 2007 when they taped the shows in NYC.

    1. Oh, Thanks.

      The reason I asked about Gerald Sullivan is because he was on once
      before. He was a neighbor. 😀

  22. OS,

    There is a ton of energy in that trough…I think this storm is going to deliver a bigger punch than most people are thinking. Nam already looks to be developing the storm closer to the coast.

      1. Not sure that the 0Z has it closer, but rather Stronger and thus
        expanding the precip shield. Thoughts?

        2. The 0Z NAM has a gargantuan storm!! If that thing ever came closer, we’d be
          in deep trouble. Even as it is way out there, it throws back 4-6 inches of snow in
          our area. This is a clear trend upward in snowfall.

          What does it mean? Perhaps little or nothing, but on the other hand???? Who knows.

          I’ll post 3 maps, totals for 12Z NAM, 18Z NAM and 0Z NAM.

            1. No, I understand that. Just pointing out that it throws that snow way back to the West as center is WAY off shore. That is all. 😀

  30. Still to far east but this 00z run had the low developing closer to the coast but then moving more easterly than north. This has surprises written all over it!!

  32. Goalie issues with the Bruins. Good team, no, possibly a great team. But, they lack a shut-down goalie. Several soft goals in the past two games have put the B’s in a hole. Wouldn’t having a goalie like Miller be nice.

  33. Ok here we go:

    Last nights 06Z snow totals:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    12Z snow totals:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

    18Z snow totals:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    0Z NAM snow totals:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    Now tell me you can’t see a trend here??? A slow but sure trend Upwards in snow totals. Watch out!!! 😀 😀 😀

  34. 975mb low is a HUGE storm…We need to watch out for any shift in the track because its going to mean Big problems for coastal areas.

    1. Interesting Day t9morrow for sure. We’ll be able to nowcast at some point
      tomorrow, but the rest of the 0Z runs and tomorrow’s 12Z runs should paint
      a much clearer picture. We shall see. 😀

  36. Definite trend. So let me get this straight NAM, GFS, CMC, all showing about 6″. Euro,UKMET showing more of a 3″ storm. Is this correct?

  39. I don’t need to see any more models, the 00z nam run is very close to what’s gonna happen, close but no cigar, it’s a high bust potential, little under the weather, goodnight 🙂

  40. 0Z GFS about 11PM
    oZ Ukmet about Midnight
    0Z Canadian regular about Midnight
    0Z Canadian Global 12:15-12:30 AM
    0Z Euro about 1:30 AM 😀

  41. Someone educate me on the WSW posted for central Maine showing 6+ inches. Looking at nam GFS and euro I just don’t know what they see. Maybe they are accounting for closer pass.

  42. im lowering what i was thinking earlier today. south shore. plymouth south and east. cape and islands still 4-8 inches. quick shut off of snow amounts with 2-4 east of i95 and 0-2 for the rest of the region.

    2. Beginning to go Negative!!

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021600&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=036

      Gone Negative…

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021600&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=039

      Will it suck system back towards the coast???

      Nope!!! Too Late with the tilting!! What a shame. Oh Well.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021600&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=042

  48. Yes it is…Drops a little more moisture on the coast but nothing huge. Still looks like a general 3-6 inch snowfall. But this storm is way to big and dangerous to just say it will miss or not be a big deal any shift in the track 20-30 miles is huge! Don’t forget storms have been coming north further than the models have been predicting so lets see what happens tomorrow.

  51. The Canadian has a decent hit for areas south of the Pike and as far west as most of CT and LI.

    Unless this model is seeing something that the others aren’t, this big upgrade so far is not all that impressive.

    1. I think its going to be a 1-3 2-4 inch snow event for CT. It looks like your part of CT will get the most. In fact here in western CT
      we might get more with the first batch coming through for the overnight than the ocean storm.

      1. I am not buying the Canadian JJ. I think the upgrade did little to improve that model’s performance as it seems like it can’t even get this storm right even now when we are within 24 hours of the event.

        That band of snow coming in from the west has some punch to it. Some spots in PA have reported 2-3″ of snow from it. It will definitely freshen up our snowcover tonight if it holds together…

    1. It sure is Hadi. I was checking the Environment Canada website for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. They still haven’t even posted any watches or warnings yet in conjunction with this storm!

  53. 0z UKMET is well east, though looks like it is still brushing the Cape with a moderate snow accumulation. Tough to tell for sure on the site I am looking at.

  60. The NAM on the other hand is WAY OTS and is bright beautiful sunshine just a little blustery.. The NAM hates this storm.

    1. Good Morning! Can’t make sense of models this am but it seems brunt is staying offshore. Still wonder if the models “know” what they are doing.

  63. The models are still all over the place. I don’t know if we can put much stock in the GFS or Euro at this point but the NAM in my opinion is either way off or on to something showing an OTS solution. If I was looking at the SREF correctly they are showing about .50 of liquid but don’t hold me to that.

  70. Kind of neat to see the thin ribbon of precip extending all the way from Caribou, ME to New Orleans, LA.

    It also practically outlines the trof and the southern half of the ribbon’s precip motion, I think, shows why its a brush with tonight’s storm and not a direct hit. While the echoes are moving northeast, the coverage of the precip in the south is making decent progress towards the east and southeast, showing the slow eastward movement of the trof and thus, the low likely to be a bit too far offshore.

    2. I was thinking the same thing Tom. If that front stalled like right now, we’d be good to go, but not gonna happen.

  73. Funny no matter where I live, I am always in the crosshairs of these ribbons on every storm. It’s like they are drawn to Woburn for some reason, when just east and west of it there is nothing…HA.

    1. So true ! As recent as Nemo, everyone must have been looking at a particular enhanced band of snow and thinking either…..”move ten more miles this way” or “dont move at all and keep dumping”.

  74. Of course, switching from the radar loop to the satellite loop, that sure is one impressive deep trof and the motion of the clouds is impressively south-southwest to north north-east along the US East coast.

    I think I’ll just watch the radar loops today and draw my last minute conclusions from that. 🙂

  76. Nice 1 – 1.5 inches where I am with the snow this morning. I am probably going to see more snow now than with the coastal storm since I don’t see the snow shield making it back to western CT.

  78. I honestly think most from Boston to Providence receive less than 2 inches, it does not look good for snow to me

    1. I’m 12 miles north and I can tell you it’s sticking bad…roofs already totally covered and intensity has picked up big time. Driveway is getting covered. Darn ribbon! Leave me alone!

        1. You can have it. 🙂 I don’t mind snow I guess but really tired of the weekend snows…nice all week when I am tied ot a chair, and spend the weekends shoveling. 🙁

        1. HAHA…wouldn’t surprise me at this point. They were by all week “widening” the road which were already at the curb so basically wasting money.

          1. I don’t know why they don’t revamp our entire plowing and sander procedures, when I visit friends in Chicago or NYC where they on average get less snow but take it all away always say at the dinner table or it at least comes up once that they still can’t believe they just let the piles of snow sit on corners of streets and have people walking in the streets bc the sidewalks r blocked, can we get out of the outdated ways we do things please ugh!! Take it easy ww 🙂

            1. They need to plow sidewalks into the streets, then plow and haul the street snow out. They whole thing is backwards! They need to take a lesson from our friends up in Ottawa.

              2. It’s crazy but it’s the way we have been doing it for since 1878 why change now, I can hear it, we don’t like change ugh!! Have a good day

                1. It isn’t the way we’ve been doing it. I remember as a child – which wasn’t in the 1800s – that they used a conveyer belt type machine and dumped the snow into trucks. I don’t have a problem with the system. Here they clean the streets, plow the sidewalks and we are fine. And if it can be done efficiently in a town this size others can do it as well.

                  They were melting snow in Boston last week

    1. Personally I think this storm is going to have a suprise and be a big bust for tonight, most will only get 1-3 inches cape will get 3+

      1. Quite possibly, however, with the wind increasing very quickly overnight, even 1-3 inches will create some tough driving conditions and lots of powdery snow being whipped around.

    1. Could be ….. Very active jet stream flow above, capable of providing a little extra lift above any convergence zones. So, within this ribbon of precip, I’d think there are likely to be some pulses of moderate precip.

      I think the ribbon will continue to slide slowly eastward today across the area, eventually slightly offshore….. and then, later this evening, a bigger area of precip will ride along it, with its western shield covering eastern Mass for a few to several hrs this evening.

  85. About 1.25″ in Coventry, CT this morning and still snowing lightly.

    I think the storm later today will have some surprises up its sleeve. Small change in track one way or another will have a huge impact on outcome.

    1. This low pressure system too close for comfort. I am hoping for a shift back to the west. I think it it is highly unlikely but
      it would not shock me since the models have had difficulty with this coastal storm.

  88. Wow…TK you on? It is POURING snow right now…If I didn’t know better it’s coming down harder than last week.

      1. Yeah don’t get it…the radar doesn’t show anything of that intensity but the window don’t lie. 🙂 Was hoping to get away with little at least this morning but I guess not. Darn ribbon is literally right over Woburn and just not going anywhere.

        1. Curious to talk to TK as I am west Woburn and he is east I think…wondering if there is a sharp contrast.

        2. Oh I believe u, It looks like it’s gonna be snowing here too soon but it should be done within an hr or 2

    1. Agreed. Is that how the storm will stay or will it consolidate more? Seems like it would only affect a very narrow area based on how it looks.

  93. Just in from Chris Lambert on WHDH:

    “The forecasted snow totals are tricky at this point, but the more likely set-up provides Boston with another 3-4″ of fluffy snow, 1-3″ west of Route 128 and 4-6″ across SE Mass, with up to 6-8 across the Cape and Islands. If the track is a bit closer to the coast, these numbers slide up, if it’s farther out to sea, these numbers slide down. You now how it goes around here, the track is everything. We’ll also deal with a biting north wind tomorrow, gusts past 30mph and highs only in the 20s”

  100. Good morning all!

    Got the snow band in. Solid moderate snow in Woburn and most of the immediate W & N suburbs of Boston but it won’t last too long like this – winding down later this morning and this area will probably weaken slightly as it progresses slowly through SE MA.

    2nd part of event tonight into Sunday still looks the same, in terms of snow amounts forecast above, but still a very fragile forecast.

  101. Band of heavier snow that seemed to blow up over us has moved away and very light snow remains.

    What is the timing on tonight’s snow?

  105. A storm better get its act together QUICKLY if it’s going to ride along this cold front to give eastern new england big snows. Still does not appear to be in the cards. Calling for 1-3 inches with a bit more toward the Cape where ocean enhancement plays in.

  110. Newton, very light snow now, band has passed, no accumulation on streets or sidewalks, accumulation on cars and on top of the dirty NEMO snow.

  111. 1/2 inch but still on the edge of the accumulating snow band in Woburn. Still, don’t expect any more real accumulation from this band where I am as it is edging to the east of me.

  114. Occasional nuissance variet snow showers this afternoon mixed with rain at times closer to the coast during the afternoon. No additional snow accumulations expected. Tonight, an ocean storm rides along the front and remains too far out at sea. It brushes eastern new england with a general 1-3 inch snowfall with perhaps a bit more over the cape before clearing early Sunday morning.

  115. Morning.

    Model divergence abounds!

    Here is the 0Z FIM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013021600/3hap_sfc_f036.png

    Here is the 06Z GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021606&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=033

    And snowmap:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021606&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=051

    12Z NAM sucks. Backs off completely giving us maybe an inch or so.

    06Z GFS Gives us a substantial snowfall.

    Let’s see if the GFS follows the NAM and backs off.

    1. 0Z CMC:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem850mbTSLPp06036.gif

      0Z NOGAPS:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/00znogaps850mbTSLPp06042.gif

      0Z UKMET

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/00zukmet850mbTSLPp06036.gif

      0Z Euro at 24 hours. At 48 it is a bomb long gone:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS024.gif

      All close, but no cigar. Wouldn’t take much to bring the heavy stuff to the
      coast.

      Probably Not in the cards, but we have to watch closely. 😀

    1. I agree, it does look a bit closer.
      I don’t have access to total precip on Euro.

      Not sure if the display is 3 hour or 6 hour precip.

      Just glancing at it Euro calls for something like 2-4 possibly 3-6, but it is difficult to tell.

    1. That’s fine, but I sure am going to look at the rest of the 12z runs and will
      look at the 18Z runs as well. Then I certainly will look at the 0Z runs
      for any last minute changes. 😀

      Of course while waiting I’ll be looking at satellite imaging and radars.

      And I won’t be alone! 😀

  119. If your in western mass and have nothing yet plan on not getting anything tonight either.
    in southeast mass cape and islands.. areas east of i95 will see 4-8 inches areas west will see 2-4 inches.
    northeast mass. areas east of i95 willsee 2-4 inches of snow areas west of i95 will see up to 2 inches.
    central mass. up to 3 inches of snow is possible including todays event.
    western mass what ever you see today is what you will be getting . maybe some snow showers late tonight.

  121. Still seems a bit generous. West of Worcester I don’t think they see 2-4 and certainly zilch for western MA :D. 2-4 tops for Boston and I doubt anyone on the cape sees 8 inches.

    1. Cape Cod sticks out there, like an arm and hand motioning, saying “come here and get me”. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get 8 in a few spots not only because they will be sticking out into the storm but from a strong and very cold north wind over mild ocean water. The ocean moisture + fluff factor may act very much like a Great Lakes snow band for a while out there tomorrow morning.

      I may take the top edge off my 5-9 for that area but still the same general idea for now.

      1. Thank you for your thoughts TK. I think huge bust potential here. Some people could wake up to a coating and it wouldn’t surprise me.

  122. Does anyone have that great link for the national radar?
    I don’t seem to have it book marked. Many thanks

  126. Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ

    12 Z GFS CRUSHES eastern MA w/ sizeable Nor’easter. 8-12″ on the Cape. 12 NAM misses us completely. This is fun! Leaning to another storm!

  128. I’m thinking light snowshowers coating to an inch west of 495, 1-2 inside 495, 1-3 inside 128, 2 inches for Boston, Plymouth to Providence east is the wild card, it will be fun watching radar tonight but I’m not looking for anything sizable for most of us

  130. The GFS has been all over the map w/this system – if this was sobriety test, it would fail b/c it can’t walk a straight line. Run to run, no consistency.

    2. Not really. It has had it each and every run with some runs more off shore, but
      it always had a big storm.

      I wish we could trust it.

      NAM=Garbage
      GFS=A crusher!!

      Go Figure.

      😀

    3. If gfs says snowstorm it’s a good model and if it says no snow it’s a bad model, I think the gfs is junk, the nam will win out

      1. You may find that on other sites but generally not here. 🙂

        I have doubted the performance of the GFS for a very long time.

          1. There are some other good sites out there, and a brand new one run by our friends at LSC that I’ll be mentioning very shortly.

    4. I did propose an amendment a week ago to have the GFS banned. 🙂 still waiting for everyone’s vote. 🙂 🙂 my vote is yay, ban it.

      1. Yay. And I’m working very hard to push snow away from your area Tom. Daughter and family were there yesterday. Said Humarock not as bad as she thought and isn’t sure why house won’t be ready for march but thought brant rock was far worse.

        1. Thanks Vicki. The wire damage, along with the rocks in Brant Rock are eye-opening.

          Perhaps you will get a call from the home-owner with some good news.

  131. Actually, this is the national radar loop I wanted. I think there is a link for
    a larger version of this somewhere, but this will do.

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

    What I don’t understand here, with the front lined up as it is,
    the upper winds would not have enough curvature to get the storm
    here. Therefore, they better buckle soon, else this baby is OTS.

    Also, NO storm development evident YET on this loop. Where is it?

    😀

    1. Now you’re getting it OS. As I have stated earlier, a storm better get cranking soon because by the time it does and rides up along the front, the front will be several hundred miles to our east. Also, the storm would need to bomb out rapidly to significantly affect us. Hence, I’m remaining conservative and believe the EURO model has the right idea. If you can believe it, I even think TK is being a bit generous with his totals. I wish I were wrong. Believe me.

  132. Pretty much we should ban gfs,nam,ukmet,cmc

    Charlie has been consistent on this storm. However not a great model to trust. The trend has been moving further west.

    1. You can’t discount the King. Also TJ, just have a look at what is happening in the present time. We have a front that is crossing our region now and there is no evidence of storm development. By the time a storm does develop along this front it will be too far out at sea to greatly affect us! That’s the reality of it presently.

  133. Latest from Joe Joyce:

    Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ

    @zgreenwx WRF, MM5, RPM…all show non-event. GFS, Euro Canadian are on storm patrol. Feel Low will ride up front stalled just off the coast

    Where is he getting that STALLED from????

    😀 😀

    Something up? OR not?

    Here we are less than 24 hours from an event and NO ONE can say with any
    degree of certainty whether we get this storm or not. It literally could go
    either way. Hit or Miss. 😀 😀

    Going to be a fun day.

  134. Raleigh, NC ….. 1/2 mile in moderate snow.

    Any chance of a narrow convergence zone setting up along the immediate coastline tonight, where just out in the ocean, the surface winds are NNE and a couple of miles inland, they are NNW and the outermost western band of the precip gets intensified a bit by this ???

  138. Here is an interesting tid bit from NWS:

    WHAT
    IS LEFT OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED ACROSS THE MID AND
    OUTER CAPE AT 15Z…AS PRESSURES HAVE LEVELED OFF OR ARE FALLING
    JUST A BIT.

  140. Hey Alisonarod,

    I wasn’t discounting the EURO at all. I was just saying most of the models we look at are pretty unreliable except the Euro. I will take a look at euro when it comes out and then have my eyes glued to the radar to see what the trends look like.

    1. im seeing a bend of some sort in the southeast states but not sure if that is just the cold front or somthing tring to form.

  143. Been out for a while, I come back and looks like the bratty GFS is acting up again.

    It’ll be radar time soon.

    Will the King once again put the GFS over his knee or with the dog GFS finally have his day???

    Off to give my son a whooping in ping pong….I hope….wish me luck…he’s getting good.

    1. I guess we’re looking at the same material!! 😀

      Btw in that link he said:

      Our Euro model has come in more robust and closer to the coast.

      Does this mean he has earlier access to the Euro and he is talking
      about the 12Z Euro?????

  151. I am a lurker but for what it’s worth Mark Rosenthaul on Weatherblast is going for a big storm now too! He updated his forecast. Thanks all for your great information. Keep up the great work!

    1. Thanks for reading and for your comment!

      I’ll disagree a little bit with Mark for now but I respect his forecasting ability. We will see what happens. 🙂

  155. I know not everybody may be able to answer this now but can we get an early idea of who is planning on meeting on the 28th?

  157. Havent seen the blog till now but im t a rest area on the pike. When I was on 495 in Franklin I saw 3 of those LED highway signs. Each read, “Winter Storm Warning. Please plan accordingly.” Is there something going on with tonights storm?? Im in for the 28th get together!

  159. According to Joe Joyce latest text looks like Euro holds ground and calling for lesser amounts 3-6 South Shore, 4-8 Cape, 2-4 Boston points north and west

      1. I think he is just human and cares about getting it right. Maybe not the top met in Boston, but I am not going to deduct points for keeping his options open.

        1. He is like a swinging pendulum. Two hours ago he tweeted winter storm more likely. I think the less conservative tweets to the public should be kept at a minimum until substantial evidence of such a large event becomes more founded. IMHO, of course 😀

          1. Yes – no doubt he could filter a bit more professionally speaking, I was on that roller coaster with him.

  160. I’m sorry I quickly read the new tweet and posted inaccurate info. But Euro still is a little event from what I’m reading. Apologies

    Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ

    12z Euro walking me off the ledge. I feel much better now! Thank you Euro!

    Mike Wankum ‏@MetMikeWCVB

    An ocean storm will give us snow tonight and tomorrow. Heaviest toward the Cape. 4-8″ Cape.Boston-So Shore 3-6″. City 2-4″

  161. Hi everyone..the planned gathering has brought me out of hiding.
    I am planning to attend, but wud help to know where….i was confused when i
    first read about it.
    Also, someone commented awhile back re what did they used to do when there were
    no models to confuse them lol. I remember Don Kent making many great forecasts and lots of mistakes. Just like nowadays…right? lol

      1. How so? This map shows 0.25″ melted precip from Boston southwest, west and northwest with perhaps up to 0.5″ of melted precip over the cape. Looks like 2-4 with 6″ amounts possible over the Cape.

  164. Never doubted the Euro would maintain its consistent and sensible forecast. Planning no changes to the posted forecast at this time.

      1. Possibly, but not yet. It’s going to be turning very cold during this, and out over the Cape that cold air is going to be coming across mild ocean.

  165. Everyone seems certain in 3-6 but I really can’t be so confidant. Just on the outer cape looks like a foot plus. That is not much of a shift.

    1. I do not feel Boston will see 3-6 from this. Still feel it’s a light event for many of us. The only place that could possibly exceed 6″ is the outer most Cape.

    1. And what does he call for Boston? The snow gradient will sharply cut off the further north and west you go away from the center of circulation.

  167. Joe Joyce:

    Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ

    Have to admit…12Z GFS is still freaking me out! I don’t think I am going to be able to sleep tonight!

    1. Ha ha! The only way to find out what is going to happen is to watch it happen. It’s so interesting that the two camps are so split which could have a lot of consequences. Huge bust potential with the forecast in either direction– i.e. from receiving nothing to getting clobbered.

    1. Have fun. We’re taking the 4 and 6 year old to Blue Hills tomorrow for their first time skiing. Far cry from smugglers but fun nevertheless. A few inches of fluffy snow would ice it!

  173. That ribbon of precip has gradually slid southeastward and its now over SE Mass, but it seems the precip on it is intensifying a bit. (grass areas starting to stick a bit).

    I’d think where the ribbon stops, as the low passes by overnight, is where the best snowfall in eastern New England will be. In looping the radar, it is still edging southeastward. Perhaps the snow will bulge back ever so slightly westward during the low’s closest eastward pass ???

  178. This is a slow moving band that never really got its act together until it was right on top of us. Therefore, south shore and CC should see a bit more snow from this initial burst than the rest of us. Yet, if you’re NOT including today’s snow, total snow for tonight still looks like 2-4 area wide with up to 6 inches on the cape and a few isolated areas on the outer cape approaching 7 or 8 inches.

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